Moneyball

No, that only applies to dumb ass stat sports like baseball

>>76134845
Too many variables for it to be adequately modelled, so not really

>>76134845
Isn't parking the bus the moneyball of soccer

>>76134845
Several teams are already (some version) applying it. Most famous team is Midtylland from Denmark and they won the league with it.

It's not about using mediocre players but more about finding underrated players & finding players that fit your team's playing style.

Baseball is easier to manage statistically because there aren't a ton of variables. It's pitcher + defense vs batter for the most part


Soccer has too many moving parts

It only applies to sports where you can micro manage. So like football, baseball or maybe even basketball. Free form sports like soccer and hockey, you can't manage in the same way.

Sure they can.

I find it funny when divegrass fans think their sport is beyond quantification.

Anything and everything can be reduced to statistics and math.

Doesn't mean it's guaranteed to work, though. Only give a team good odds to win.

Baseball often defies the Sabr community's predictions, however.

The most predictable sport in this case is probably basketball, which also heavily uses moneyball theory.

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>>76134857
I invented the circle style
why teams don't play like this???

>>76134884
>hockey

Hockey was the first sport to move beyond simple box score stats and into "advanced stats" territory with +/-, which had much more predictive power than goals, assists, etc.

And coaches have micromanaged around that concept, becoming more selective with their line-changes and such.

>>76134898
Your memeing is valued and appreciated

>>76134845
>using mediocre players, mathematics and statistics?
That's not moneyball. Maybe try reading the book instead?

>>76134851
AZ Alkmaar did it in 09 you idiot

>>76134898
Because this isn't American football, that play would break the rules, players who aren't carrying the ball can't interfere. In the same way you can't do screens like in basketball

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>>76134959
twas just a mental shortcut

>>76134895
>quantification

this is a stupid meme invented by weirdos like Nate Silver.
Now some fucker brought it to football with mediocre results. The only quantified transfer that was good was when Leicester bought Kante, but every team try and fail, see what happened at Leicester last year.
My team bought players with Opta and shit like that and we got fucking relegated this year.
Jeep your statistics and your turbocapitalist approach to sport for yourself you fucking amerilards

Doesn't work. When high volume sports it's easier to use numbers. When it comes to football one blooter and suddenly your win turns into a draw

>>76135024

>Italian education

>>76135024

>He thinks his sport is beyond science and math

It's not. Like I said, statistical approaches don't "guarantee" anything, they simply increase your odds of winning.

Luck and the human element (choking, being clutch, etc) are still huge deciding factors in sports.

>>76135040

>He thinks any sport besides basketball can't be completely changed by one play

Soccer isn't some magical mythical sport above the laws of statistics, get over it faggot

>>76135058
A statistical approach doesn't necessarily increase your odds of winning. Anyone can find a pattern in some set of data and claim it is the key to success

>>76135058
I still think that methods of training are more useful, when Sacchi came to Milan he changed the way they trained and they won consecutively for years. No surprise that Mou studied at Milanello

>>76135024
>i don't like math or numbers

third world confirmed

>>76135062
I'm saying it's less valuable, not useless. It works in Basketball as well because of the volume, which is what you need. For example, with a defender, you can buy cheep players with lots of Tackles/Interceptions, but those people aren't always good defenders, because the stats don't take into account something like positioning. With baseball you have one play being run over and over and over again and so it's easy to study, Football is almost a continuous fluid motion

>>76135040
>When it comes to football one blooter and suddenly your win turns into a draw

That's being results oriented. A statistical approach looks at the long term obviously.

Like poker. Aces often lose to trash hands and can be unprofitable over the short term, but over the long tern, the hand is the still the most profitable out of all starting hands.

>>76134845
Moneyball hasn't ever won a World Series.

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>>76134989
>can't do screens

>>76135141
Royals won in 2015

Reminder that the Oakland Athletics didn't even make it past the first round
Regular seasons don't matter

>>76135144
It was blatant refball, as usual UEFA fucking Barcelona

>>76135062
>>76135108
To add to that, it also doesn't take into account the intangibles. Things like leadership, determination, heart, etc

>>76135195
>UEFA fucking Barcelona
I'd say it's a different kind of sexual relation

The point of Moneyball, (the book not the movie), had very little to do with using statistics in sports, that was just the lens the writer used to reflect his real point, which was exploiting market inefficiencies. You can do this in any sport, regardless of whether or not statistics can be accurately used in that sport to represent on-field performance.

So the way it would work in soccer would be the same way the A's did it in the book. They would find undervalued players that the rich teams overlooked, and use them to their benefit for cheap. I don't know much about soccer scouting, but it seems that most teams nowadays prefer small but quick and technical players and strategies, which would make big and strong but less skilled players less valued. So a team that wants to maximize wins per dollar can exploit the market by buying physical players and playing a more physical style, and it appears that's what most small clubs do.

>>76135212
I mean, those are still intangible in baseball as well

>>76135240
Do you watch the sport or just read /sp/ memes? Barcelona always get refballed against Real Madrid, Juventus or Bayern

>>76135104
>I still think that methods of training are more useful,

Of course. I agree that skills and athleticism are what win in any sport.

Moneyball is simply the attempt to look beyond 19th century stats (for soccer, this is obviously goals, assists, saves, etc) that were once the standard in defining player value and find out how players impact the game beyond what is recorded in simple box scores.

If anything, Moneyball techniques are simply a statistical explanation of what scouts and coaches would verify with the "eye test."

Probably not because baseball has a draft, salary caps and free agency.

>>76135252
Yes, but the entire sport revolves around someone stepping up to a pitch and hitting the ball. It's much more simple

>>76135178
>they were bad and then they became good!
not moneyball faggot. Also they're back to being shit already.

>it took the A's win 20 in a row for people to realise a game that has stats about everything could use those stats to make better teams

>>76134845
Is this movie any good? Pitt is the most overrated actor ever after Depp.

>>76135271
>baseball
>salary cap
'no'

>>76135289
They started the three elite relievers in the bullpen trend because they couldn't afford good starting pitching. You don't watch the royals so I don't know why you bother to react like you did

>>76135295
My bad I forgot it's called "luxury tax" instead of salary cap. Same difference faggot.

>>76135327
It's not even close to the same thing

>>76135255
or PSG

>>76135255
I don't think this is true.
However Muller indeed fouled Alba with that screen.

What they won't tell you is this queer never won a World Series so who cares

>>76135365
slightly unusual flag

>>76135416
Moneyball isn't just billy beane you know

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>>76135365
ello Edmundo, my sudamerican pariah

>>76134845
>Can we win the Champions League using mediocre players, mathematics and statistics?

No chance

Great players are obvious, technically excellent and play instinctively to adapt to any possible opposition occurrence for a whole 90 mins. How do you construct a "statistically good team" when there are limitless ways for a manager to nullify one

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>>76135445
>No chance

>>76135474
>mathematics and statistics?

I didn't say weaker teams can't sometimes pull through

>>76135418
Really? I'm always here, although I usually shitpost is /copalib/
>>76135435
Hello Szymon. How is that migration thing going? Are you keeping strong boundaries?

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>>76135550
good, we are keeping our football safe from foreign stars

>>76135620
Good, I bandwagonned Legia in this CL.
Hope they get in next season.

>>76134845
Forest Green Rovers got promoted to the FL with moneyball. Their math wizard just left for Everton.

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>>76135710
that's kind. it was a lot of fun to see over 9000 goals per match
I hope they win the polish league because only 1 team gets to play in UCL. If it's Jagiellonia - it will be a disaster. Same thing with Lech or Lechia. Legia has a little bit more experience.

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>>76135710
keep your fingers crossed, Edmundo
(I support Termalica because they're out of nowhere and their village has only 700 habitants or something)

It would be very interesting to learn how top teams actually decide who to buy, especially to compare how Juve decide to buy compared to say, Bayern, and Chelsea.

>>76135840
>Juve
>Buy
don't they prefer free transfers and loans?

>>76135789
What were they exploiting?

>>76135801
>>76135817
Thats awesome. Wish I could follow the polish league. Legias' kit is aesthetic as fuck.

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>>76135880
which ones?

>>76134860
those guys are trying it at brentford and not really getting any sort of real improvement.

>>76135916
16/17
Also the new kit is gonna look gr8
http://www.footyheadlines.com/2017/05/legia-warsaw-17-18-kit.html

Moneyball didn't even work in baseball so why would you expect it to work in other sports?
The zenith of the Moneyball mentality was getting swept by the Yankees in a divisional round.
Wowitsfuckingnothing.jpg

>>76134898
serious answer: you can't

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fouls_and_misconduct_(association_football)#Indirect_free_kick_offences

Fouls punishable by an indirect free kick are:
When any player in the opinion of the referee:
impedes the progress of an opponent when the ball is not within playing distance of either player

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>>76135968
very noice and subtle strip
I always liked green colour because Legia was originally a military club (CWKS)

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>>76136035
my tactics do not include any opponent
we just hold hands, close ourselves and attack

pic rel

>>76136058
so you are impeding progress of opponents towards the ball without playing it (because all your TEN/ELEVEN players aren't obviously playing the ball, only ONE player can play the ball at a time): foul, indirect free kick for the opposing team, you just did lose the ball

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>>76136083
j'admet
I would be a shitty coach :(

>>76136094
you tried. I'll be honest with you, I also try to find these marginal gains in the rules/new possibilities because football rules are simple but not simplistic, and allow great space for innovations (like chess)

look at this

WC '74, how Netherlands abuse off-side trap to a point never seen before
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNkQxY0yCno

other tricks that aren't used enough imo
https://youtu.be/18sjlyoKfL8?t=517
(using the back of one of your opponents on a free throw, using the referee as a wall, doing mind tricks, etc.)

>>76135244
Interesting take. I think that's what Wenger did in the late 90s early 00s with Arsenal. Which is he noticed non-English players were undervalued in England (fear that they would take time to bed in and may never fully adjust) and used that fact (and the low importance given to diet and conditioning at the time) to make a great squad. Everyone eventually caught on and the inefficiency disappeared. The club to win without being the biggest investor Leicester, found a similar inefficiency in valuation of non-PL players for positions that require high discipline and workrate and relatively low skill. Of course the result here was much better than expected because of intangiables but they still did a good job. Southampton are the other PL example where they invested a disproportionate amount in the technical side of things and reaped rewards because others were more interested in investing in a saturated transfer market.

>>76135992
You are confusing the success of moneyball with the success of the Oakland Athletics

>>76134845
Moneyball is garbage.

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>>76136156
>using the referee as a wall
wouldn't it be attack on referee and yellow/red card?

Next step to "moneyball" in football is set pieces. How come they are not worked to the death, à la American football? They are literally the only moment when you have 100% possession in opponent side, and do whatever you want. Wasting a set piece should be a crime at high level.

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>>76136229
Lewandowski mastered free kicks

>>76135840
juve's squad is made 50% of players bought for peanuts when they were still young (dybala, chiellini, bonucci, rugani...) while the other 50% is old "rejects" that thay manage to fix (barzagli, pirlo, evra, khedira, dani alves). Higuain's case is an exception.

>>76136213
Messi obviously uses the ref but never touch him, so there is no foul. he just use the body of a sloppy ref (who should have got away more quickly) as a screen. His opponent can't touch the ref either

>>76136156
Passing to pedro while Messi is offside is difficult and almost impossible for the striker to run to this ball

Tony Pulis is a "Moneyball" manager and gets results with it

>>76135292
yeah it's good
I know jack shit about baseball and I was hooked, it can be funny as well. One thing it does is bring out the 'under the lights' beauty of a stadium at night, great photography.
le is losing fun meme scene:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyyGgcRqrhs

>>76136229
I think they are worked to death by the intelligent managers. It's still only about one goal per 25-30 corner kicks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37JYyU6HBSY

>>76135195
>as usual UEFA fucking Barcelona

LOL how entitled are the farcelona cunts? they out-uefa even Madrid, and they STILL think they get the short end of the stick.

>>76136717
jesus, brad pitt is >>>/fit/ as fuck

>>76134971
>dutch league
Literally english championship tier

>>76137945
Pls stop understating MU winning against Ajaks

>>76137962
They also beat Feeyenord 4-0 in the group stages. Dutch league is complete shit.

>>76135936
lol they're there for like a year or something. will need time to build this shit pal.

>>76135024
Which team? Source?

>>76135104
Except most managers don't have time to train anything. They play like every 3 days m8, you'll barely find time to actually train in this midtime

>>76135244
This is Monaco in a nutshell.

>>76134845
Check Midtjylland.

>>76136156
>1:12

he obviously onside. clear refball there.

>>76134898
>I invented
Change the ball with Messi and thats literally the argie NT for the last decade

>>76136035
Fellaini should just have a litle nest cut into his hair and have Romero put the ball in it so he can walk into the goal every time.

>>76134845
Yes it can, but you would have to get a coach with god-tier understanding of tactics

>>76138698
I was thinking about carrying the ball in mouth
>>76138706
You mean Otto Rehagel

>>76136460
Taking bungs is not the same thing as moneyball.

>>76134860

Midtjylland won the league because they had a strong team and the rivals had a shitty season. Now they're back to being barely top 3.

Moneyball is a joke in DK desu

>>76134845
>>76134851
>>76134852
Not to win the CL, but I think Tottenham is a good example of a Moneyball team doing well.

>>76135992
Epstein's teams won multiple WS

It works, just not well enough on a tiny budget to win a ws

>>76134845
They just started testing moneyball to American football in the Cleveland browns
If they are successful (at least 6 wins) then it just might work in other sports

>>76135992
>Moneyball didn't even work in baseball
How uninformed can you be

>>76139128
Tottenham spend upwards of 30 million pounds for Moussa fucking Sissoko, what are you smoking?

And to answer OP, no, you can't in soccer/football. The teams willing to pay more will always have the best players. It can happen in sports with salary caps though.

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how in2 monnieballz on my Football Manager videogame?

>>76136802
>they out UEFA even Madrid
>tf
>tt
Filthy chicano

>>76139545
>Tottenham spend upwards of 30 million pounds for Moussa fucking Sissoko, what are you smoking?
After the guy running their entire scouting operation quit

Hence the bad summer transfers

norwegian national team basically did tactical moneyball during the 90s. They played an extreme direct counter-attacking 4-5-1, exploiting whatever weakness in the opposition team (who usually had better players). One of the famous tactical moves was having a targetman (good header) out wide, matching him up with the most manlet full back. That way, most of the hoof balls would be successfull

Iceland did something similar last summer

Yes, but the problem is football is way, way less "figured out" stats-wise. What good is the winning formula if you don't have the right variables?

The stat correlating the most with winning football games, the packing stat, was only developed like a years ago.

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>>76135212
>Things like leadership, determination, heart, etc

>>76139817
>norwegian national team
>Iceland did something similar

And England lost to both!

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yes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J36ZfXBsGjs

>>76134860
This, analytics are great when applied properly. You cannot do what is done in sports like baseball, t20 cricket etc because you cannot find value out of nowhere in football in the same sense you can in those games. What you can do is use analytics to break down statistics that are important to players playing in a certain system. For example, firmino adds value for liverpools system because he averages 3+ tackles a game playing as a striker, whereas most average less than 1, therefore suits liverpools high press well.

>>76134989
Yes you can do a screen, you can't do a faulty screen, that is all.

Just look at any corner and how much screens happens, look at the first Goal in the 7-1, i think it is Klose against David Luiz so Muller can score out easily.
I mean it happens, it is not illegal

>>76135024
This is a very good post, you can see by the amount of north american replies to it

>>76139569

Isn't that "game" literally Excel - The Football Edition already?

>>76141041
Dunno. But it's fun to play hyyva paivaa

>>76134845
>Can team-managing presented in "Moneyball" be applied to world of football (us. soccer)?

they're doing it in hockey. Besides, Soccer already knows the "secret" of success. Ball possession. players who hold and can win free balls. fill a time with ball possession guys with huge passing efficiency numbers and you'll probably do pretty good

It works in hockey, it will work in soccer.

>>76136156
Passive offside is a shit exploit that should be ended unless its completely out of the play.

>>76136156
why don't more teams play like that netherlands team?

>>76134845
It's done all the time in smaller leagues. It's always about exploiting some style of play, which moneyball was about too (maximizing getting to first base for every player). All these 1-0 awful to watch teams that beat you with defence are usually memeball trying to win against stacked top teams that play attacking style to please their fans. But from management standpoint, baseball is 10 times better to run shit like that. Whole season in league in football is super small sample so luck can disrupt everything and nobody is waiting for 3 years untill it starts working.

>>76134845

Yes, it can apply to all sports.

People who think otherwise or that there are too many moving parts are just advertising their ignorance about the level of analysis and insight that is available to data scientists.

>>76139128
>this flag
>this post
Opinion discarded

>>76134845
Stats are used, but they aren't that helpful.
I don't know how advanced the stats are clubs use, but if they aren't much more sophisticated than things like xG etc., then you get much more information by just watching the player.

Stats can help you find a list of players you should look at, but the eye test is so much more important in football, simple because there are so many things you can't measure.

Things like decision-making, creativity, feeling for the space (offensively and defensively) might influence numbers like goals, xGoals, assists, key passes, chances created, tackles, interceptions etc., but they don't have to.

Especially defense is a big problem. If a player doesn't tackle or intercept his defensiv numbers won't change, even though he might have just stopped a counter by positioning himself smart and not giving the opponent any good options to play the ball forward.

>>76138661
The Offside Rule was different back then. You needed three opposing players behind the passing target to stay onside instead of the two needed nowadays.

>>76141514
It's much too risky to play the offside trap as aggressively as they did today because of the rule change.

>Leicester won the league last year
>Asks if you can win with mediocre players

>>76148970
>Mahrez player of the year
>Vardy runner up, almost top scorer
>Kante getting more offers than an underage girl in Italian govt
>Schmeichel already better than his daddy
no, you are wrong

>>76149114
And the point is where were any of them the year prior? Their success speaks volumes to what good team synergy and tactical excellence can produce

>>76149229
Greece 2004 is better example.
>win championship with mediocre players
>be still shit

>>76134895
Fuck, you're dumb.

>>76149265
90s USA teams are decent examples too. They never quite won anything but they had literal nobodies playing for them and still managed to make multiple WCs

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on the other hand, Denmark played beautifully and spontaneously in 1992

>>76136240
>higuain is an exception

Lol. That nigga got kicked out of real madrid.

Reading the comments made by north Americans, one can still that united states will always be shit at football.

They really want to apply the mentality of their shitty sports to football when obviously they can't.

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>>76149507
and yet, they usually have no problems qualifying to the 1/8 play-offs

>>76149563
Come on, bro. Do you watch north american football consistently? Because I do, and the quality of play is trash, although improving, but still being held back by dumb ass mentality brought over from other sports.

>>76134845
Sevilla
>>thread

>>76150170
I seriously doubt Monchi hired a group autist to over-analyze shots, shots at goal, tackles at the line, shots from midfield, and other dumbass statistics that baseball executives are obsessed about.

>>76150121
Isn't your national team mostly composed of footballers from European leagues?

>>76134851
>baseball
>cricket
>moneyball
Choose one

>>76150322
No, lately most of the guys being called up are from the local league.