/ptg/ PRESIDENT TRUMP GENERAL - AMERICAN PANTHEON EDITION

>>136566666

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MAGA

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https://youtu.be/xpjVwro1qi0

Also, just listen to the audience bursting with uncontrollable laughter as Colbert reads one of Trump's tweets. Is this the pinnacle of comedy?

drumpf

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>>136566622
I'm telling you anon, we are counting on you to bite the bullet. Do you want to MAGA or not? That means getting your hands dirty sometimes.

I don't like Heller, you don't like Heller. If he gets the nomination we need him like it or not. I hope NV anons get out there and bite that bullet for America if the time comes.

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>based Hispani-
O-oh

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I can almost hear the libshits screaming themselves to sleep

>>136566748
>reminding pres trump he was an immigrant
White immigrants are different, for example Germany is an acceptable place of origin for immigrants.

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>>136566674
2018 ELECTIONS, PRE-PRIMARIES SOON

Here's the breakdown for those who don't know:

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS, NOVEMBER 6th 2018

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2018

>A total of 468 seats in the U.S. Congress (33 Senate seats and all 435 House seats) are up for election on November 6, 2018.

>Heading into the election, the Republican Party holds a 52 seat majority in the Senate. Democrats hold 46 seats, and the remaining two are held by independents who caucus with the Democratic Party.

>There are 10 states with a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016: Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and only one state with a Republican incumbent that was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016: Nevada.

>There are 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that have a Republican governor: New Mexico, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine but no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.

>There are four states that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 that were won by Donald Trump in 2016: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but no states that were won by the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney) which were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016:


SPECIAL ELECTIONS FOR 115th CONGRESS REMAINING

>US Senator from Alabama: Jeff Sessions *SAFE* December 12, 2017 MO BROOKS/ ROY MOORE / LUTHER STRANGE

>Utah's 3rd: Jason Chaffetz August 15, 2017 PRIMARY, November 7, 2017 ELECTION

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*blocks your path*

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Guess which country needs daddy trumps belt

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>>136566861
House isn't much of a worry, as you can see.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018

>Elections to the U.S. House will be held on November 6, 2018. All 435 seats will be up for election. Special elections will be held to fill vacancies that occur in the 115th Congress.

>Heading into the election, the Republican Party is in the majority, holding 241 seats to Democrats' 194 seats. Due to the general lack of competition, it is unlikely that the Democratic Party will be able to flip control of the chamber in 2018.

>>136566780
No. He should lose his seat at all hazards. Republicans won't get to 60 seats, so as long as we're gaining seats overall I'm quite willing to make an example out of Heller and Flake.

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>>136566893
Strategy and planning for 2018 congressional elections:

House requires almost no effort, though we should still be cognizant and promote our guys. What we need to focus efforts on is senate elections.

The goal is simple: gain 5 seats to outnumber democrats plus neocons. Stat German is spot on as always, these are the points of attack and defense. Democrats will be pouring all their effort into preventing 4-5 seat gains.

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Wow! I think I just found Nega-Ivanka

>>136566870
Deport her!

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>>136566747
Remember when he had to correct his audience?

why does it still feel the like the weekend

>>136566873
i hold out hope kim's actually crazy enough to hit somebody, but it seems unlikely

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>>136566520
>>136566072
>vegas area backyard toad

One possibility for helping that Senate seat stay GOP is to have the strongest Dem run for the governor's seat also open in 2018.

>>136566861
>NY
please fucking divide my state

>>136567001
Because you don't have a job.

>>136566931
Flake is alright on everything but immigration.

>>136566747
>Colbert
Papist detected.

>>136566966
GOYIM! GOYIM STOP!
THAT'S WRONGTHINK!
THINK LIKE (((WE))) TELL YOU TO!

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>>136566931
>No. He should lose his seat at all hazards.
That is absolutely reckless and irresponsible. People who think like you are the reason we are in this sorry state as a country.

>Republicans won't get to 60 seats
If everyone is like you, that is damn straight. Man up and get out there to take the fight to them for Trump, or give up on MAGA. Trump needs you so answer that call. Less seats means less progress. Try to primary dicks but we have to pick our fights.

>>136566893
I think Dems gave up on taking back the house after they failed in all those special elections despite pouring infinite money into them. And they're gonna need to focus most of their spending on the Senate anyway to defend those seats up for grabs. It's actually kinda funny how fucked they are in the midterms.

>>136567010
Why doesn't Sandoval run for Senate? Is he waiting for the other seat?

>>136566957

Is she the daughter of Ronald Drumpf?

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scribbled scrompf

>>136567082
Dean, it's late, go to bed and think about your lies.

Any progress on the wall? I can't wait for protest footage where leftist virtue signal and actual Mexicans don't give a single fuck.

>>136566893
>>136566948
Arizona will be hard to retain for the Republicans, as will Nevada. As long as Murkowski and Collins are essentially independents, only one of those states is needed for the Republicans to lose majority control. As for the House, there's usually massive swings in the first midterm even if the president is fairly popular and Trump is the most unpopular president ever, but the gerrymandering will make it basically 50-50.

>>136567001
No fresh news cycle and summer is slower regarding news in general. In Germany we call it "Sommerloch".

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>>136567089
I still remember people coming in and saying democrats are going to steal the house and we are going to get crushed in special elections. Absolute delusion. They will try to make us spend a ton on every seat, I am sure, but you are right that they will of course target Senate where the roadblock is.

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>>136566747
>>136566747
Use https://hooktube.com/watch?v=xpjVwro1qi0 you dummies. Don't give Coljewbert the views.

>>136567019
You know those Italians are papists, and therefore globalists, so keep dreaming, Anon.

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3/31/2016
"Never one to shy away from controversy, Sinead O’Connor has stated that Donald Trump’s mother should have aborted him.

The singer made the comments about the US Presidential candidate today, following his offensive suggestion that women who have abortions should be punished if the practice were illegal. He has since retracted his statement.

Taking to her Facebook page, the Nothing Compares 2U singer slammed the billionaire in a ranting post. “Trump’s mother should be punished for NOT having an abortion if you want my two cents,” she wrote."

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>>136567151
I wish I was a senator so I could school your ass, lad. We're battling for America here.

>>136567162
Arizona is looking good from where I am sitting, NV is the tough shit with people like this guy.
>>136566931

Morons have no idea how to win even with Trump in charge. Also the rest of your analysis is garbage.

>>136567162
Keeping AZ is easy since Republican senators are still outperforming their Democratic counterparts by at least 10% (see McCain 2016). The state will be blue in presidential elections by 2024 and for Senate elections by 2032.

>>136567066
He's a papist, and thefore it would be more like "Proddies, proddies stop! That's wrong..."

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>>136567170
2018 Senate Elections, Nevada:

Senator Dean Heller is seeking reelection. His position is vulnerable as more and more California refugees pour in and metastasize.

His challenger is likely to be Jacky Rosen.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/rosens-senate-bid-the-first-2018-political-domino-to-fall-in-nevada/

She officially started her campaign in June. She is part of the Reid gang.

>Rosen had no political experience until last year, when she was tapped by Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid to run for Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District. She won one of the most expensive House races in 2016, and believes that experience will help her unseat Heller.

>Rosen, who is six months into her first elected office, said in an interview with the Review-Journal Thursday that she was encouraged to run for Senate by Reid, who helped recruit her for the 2016 congressional race.

There are various other contenders making for a mess due to Heller's weakness as a candidate.

>Nearly a half-dozen candidates — including a professional golfer from Henderson — are mulling or have announced a run for the seat. More contenders could emerge between now and the June 2018 primary election.

Top DC specialists and fundraisers are pouring tons of money into developing Rosen just like they did with the GA elections and Ossof.

>Rosen beat Republican Danny Tarkanian by just over 1 point last year. The race was deemed by Opensecrets.com as the most expensive House race in the country in terms spending by outside groups.

Heller should be kept for his great efforts to repeal Obamacare.

(1/2)

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>>136567316
>The former computer programmer and synagogue president blasted Heller’s previous efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act. She also balked at Heller’s recent opposition to the renewed push to repeal the ACA, saying he’s only taken that stance because he is up for re-election.

>Heller, who will run for his second term next year, is considered one of the most vulnerable Republican senators on the 2018 ballot.

>“Now that there’s a spotlight shining on him since he’s up for re-election, he seems to have taken a different tune,” Rosen said. “We need to hold him accountable for his record.”

She is widely seen as the Reid boss in training.

>Tommy Ferraro, Heller’s campaign spokesperson, compared Rosen to retired Nevada Sen. Harry Reid. “Thought Nevada was free of Harry Reid? Think again,” Ferraro said on Heller’s campaign website.

>“She is already in the pocket of Nevada’s political puppet-master, Harry Reid, after he hand-picked her to run, and Jacky’s allegiance to Reid is even raising red flags within her own party,” McAdams said in a statement. “Rep. Dina Titus, who has taken on the Reid machine numerous times and won, publicly stated today she’s considering challenging Jacky in a primary.”

With a combined effort to support Rosen's likely primary challenger and getting the word out to drive up support, we can hope to defend this seat.
(2/2)

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>>136567196
GAS NYC
CIVIL WAR NOW

I've been out of the loop for a while. Any news on the Wall?

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>>136567221
She did not age well

>>136567259
I know how to win. My goal isn't to elect a Republican, it's to punish liars. Heller has to go, one election or the other.

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>>136567340
MONTANA SENATE ELECTION

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester is running for re-election. He is one of the easiest targets for a republican takeover.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/10/jon-tester-montana-senate-fundraising-240379

>Sen. Jon Tester, whose home state of Montana went for Donald Trump by 20 points last November, is one of the top targets for Republicans next year.

>Sen. Jon Tester raked in more than $2 million in the second quarter of this year, according to figures first provided to POLITICO — currently giving the Montana Democrat $4.7 million on hand for one of the most closely watched Senate races in the 2018 cycle.

>The $2 million figure for the second quarter of 2017 mirrors the amount of cash Tester raised in the first three months of the year. According to his campaign, 91 percent of the contributions are $100 or less.

>“Broad, grassroots support continues to grow for Jon’s campaign, and this filing is the latest sign of that,” Tester campaign manager Christie Roberts said

>Tester, whose home state went for Donald Trump by 20 points last November, is one of the top targets for Republicans next year — yet the GOP has struggled to recruit a top-tier candidate to run against the farmer and former chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Finding a good candidate to back will be the top job of republican leadership and us looking to get a hardliner loyalist in. Democrat backers are pouring money in to protect this vulnerable seat.

>Former Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) was the top choice of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and national Republicans until he was nominated by Trump to serve as his Interior secretary. State Attorney General Tim Fox is also not running..

>Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) reported raising $3.1 million in the second quarter. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) both raised $2.6 million, and Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) raised $1.3 million.

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>>136566948
>As for the House, there's usually massive swings in the first midterm even if the president is fairly popular and Trump is the most unpopular president ever, but the gerrymandering will make it basically 50-50.
That's not exactly the truth. Trump started a new political era in which everyone is highly partisan and in which he'll possibly gain in mid-terms despite his apparent disapproval due to voter dynamics and demographics.
The most obvious example of this would be GA06, an easy Dem pickup that Trump only won by 1%, yet a generic Republican picked it up by 4%.
What is also notable is that Trump's disapproval is not based on his job performance or his views but rooted in character concerns.

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>>136566747
I watched the whole fucking thing, jesus christ is that pathetic. It's bad enough that everyone knows the purpose of the show isn't comedy, but to make Trump look bad; but that voice he does to imitate Trump is just... mentally unstable. I give him 5 years to live.

>>136567441
meant to refer to >>136567162

>>136567274
>(see McCain 2016)
I was talking about the midterm elections, where the opposition comes out to vote more, even when the president is popular, and the president is very unpopular.
>>136567259
Not according to polling, especially with the incumbent.

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PART & PARCEL

>>136566931
that's a surefire way to hobble trump
the way to make an example is by putting in work to get him primaried. if you can't do that, you've got to bite the bullet like all the boomer faggots that voted against trump in the primary but for him in the general, otherwise you're just handing power to the democrat party

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>>136567126
It's possible

>>136567378
Construction ought to start in September IIRC

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>>136566873
He's as good as dead without them.

>>136567162
why does he wear the mask?

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>>136567502
Pls no bully, Drumpf.

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>>136567394
>I know how to win. My goal isn't to elect a Republican, it's to punish liars
Apparently you hate to MAGA and don't stand for winning at all if you want a kike to take a seat from a republican. I hope you can come to your senses but there isn't any winning with people like you lad. I hope the people of Nevada have more sense than you.

If Trump throws his hat in for Heller and you back out, you're nothing more than a dirty traitor.

>>136567494
>Not according to polling, especially with the incumbent.
see
>>136567441

Your logic is deeply flawed for various reasons. You don't have the slightest clue if you think the House is looking bad at all for republicans right now.

>>136567522
No. Liars must never win.

>>136567383
>>136567221
JUST

>>136567593
all politicians are liars

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Press F for Rich

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>>136567593
You're garbage, I pray you learn some sense.

>>136567126

>implying she knows who her father is

>>136567494
>I was talking about the midterm elections, where the opposition comes out to vote more, even when the president is popular, and the president is very unpopular.
Don't forget the fact that whites are increasingly voting en bloque in red states. If AZ elected Trump, they will definitely elect a generic incubant senator.
Also, the political situation nowadays is a lot different than back in 2012 or even 2000. Republicans will now generally do better in midterms due to them being whiter and older. And as I mentioned before, Trump's "disapproval" didn't hurt in GA06 at all. Because it's bullshit. People don't suddenly say "nope I'll vote Democrat now".

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>>136567643
*

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>>136567660
F

>>136567567
>Your logic is deeply flawed for various reasons. You don't have the slightest clue if you think the House is looking bad at all for republicans right now.
I didn't say that. I actually said the opposite, that the midterms will go well for Republicans because Republicans are more likely to turnout in midterms.

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He is right you know!

>>136567795
Wtf I'm a #kasichmissile now. Bring back the 1994 AWB.

>>136567162
WHY DOES HE WEAR THE MASK

>>136567795
>blabla job approval
>"what about GA06?"

>jeff flake still pushing amnesty

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He's up.

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>>136567404
NORTH DAKOTA ELECTION

Heidi Heitkamp, incumbent, has not confirmed whether or not she will be running for reelection.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/22/heidi-heitkamp-north-dakota-239805

>North Dakota’s last Democrat? Heidi Heitkamp’s uncertain political future will help determine whether Democrats’ big tent will fold in 2018.

>The 61-year-old Heitkamp survived a brutal bout with cancer amid a failed 2000 campaign for governor, then ran for the Senate 12 years later in a Republican-dominated state. And now she is staring down an exceedingly difficult reelection campaign in a state where President Donald Trump is beloved.

>Heitkamp is a rare politician, the last Senate Democrat left that opposed universal gun background checks and who peppers her speech with mild expletives in her prototypical Plains State accent. Despite 12 years between her gubernatorial run and her Senate race, she still maintained near-universal name ID in the state.

>And the state’s Democratic Party couldn’t be in worse shape after the 2016 bloodbath, holding just 15 percent of the state Legislature’s seats. Republicans hold every statewide office except for Heitkamp’s seat.

>“If we don’t have her as a Democrat at the top, it’s a big loss for the party,” says Tyler Axness, a former state senator swept away by the Trump wave. “When I say that I’m a Democrat, I’m a Heidi Heitkamp Democrat.”

>“Donald Trump is as popular as ever in North Dakota,” said a Republican senator who has viewed recent polling. “If the election was held today we’d win, plain and simple.”

>>136567744
I was speaking to the Aussie, you are right completely. I was referring him to what you said.

>>136567795
>pounding
The only thing he is good at is shovelling pancakes inside the part where shit comes out

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nn for real

Will continue information gathering later.

>>136567441
>That's not exactly the truth.
It's the exact truth. It takes a very popular president to just not have losses in the first midterm election. Even popular presidents face this, while Trump is literally the most unpopular president.

>an easy Dem pickup that Trump only won by 1%, yet a generic Republican picked it up by 4%
Can't compare general election to special elections, since Republicans have a demographic election all the time the less regular the election is. 4% is low for a special election when it was held by 1% in the general election.
>What is also notable is that Trump's disapproval is not based on his job performance or his views but rooted in character concerns.
It's based on all of it, and a million other things. Either way it doesn't matter, he's disapproved.
>>136567679
>Don't forget the fact that whites are increasingly voting en bloque in red states
Not really, but doesn't matter either way.
>If AZ elected Trump, they will definitely elect a generic incubant senator.
Not with the midterms, they see big swings against marginally liked presidents, let alone unpopular ones.
>Trump's "disapproval" didn't hurt in GA06 at all.
Definitely did. For a special election, Republicans should've had a much a higher margin of victory.
>People don't suddenly say "nope I'll vote Democrat now".
It's not about anybody switching votes, it's about who comes out and vote. When it's the midterms, it's almost always the party not in power that comes out.

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He is awake and starting his day with a retweet.

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>>136568135
He always wakes up when I go to sleep.

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>>136568135
>Haha Korea I found your nukes!

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>>136568135
I posted it first, why did you get the (You)'s

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>>136568126
>It's the exact truth. It takes a very popular president to just not have losses in the first midterm election. Even popular presidents face this, while Trump is literally the most unpopular president.
Bush was in the mid-20's and in an economic crisis before he lost seats. And he started the previous political era before Trump. All previous politicial history is based on elections where Republicans could win CA and Democrats Arkansas. Nowadays, the only thing we can say for sure is that whites vote Republican, especially if they are older, and that they have a higher turnout than non-whites, especially in off-years.
>Can't compare general election to special elections, since Republicans have a demographic election all the time the less regular the election is. 4% is low for a special election when it was held by 1% in the general election.
You have no idea what you are talking about.
>It's based on all of it, and a million other things. Either way it doesn't matter, he's disapproved.
He won with 46% of the popular vote and currently he has 41% approval in a likely voter model, 40% in a registered voter model and 38% among all Americans.
>Not really, but doesn't matter either way.
Oh they are, I can even show you the data.
>Not with the midterms, they see big swings against marginally liked presidents, let alone unpopular ones.
Even Nate Silver says that it's highly unlikely that Democrats will do well.
>Definitely did. For a special election, Republicans should've had a much a higher margin of victory.
Are you fucking kidding me? Special elections are called special because they are so irregular and with two non-incubants.
>It's not about anybody switching votes, it's about who comes out and vote. When it's the midterms, it's almost always the party not in power that comes out.
Yes, and non-whites have already indicated that they won't vote in the 2016 election, especially blacks. Now, they will have even lower turnouts in the 2018 election.

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>>136567881
>tfw they called it a referendum on trump
>got less votes than a guy who spent nothing

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>>136568363
Here (you) fuck

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>>136568363
Sorry, the white was more attention grabbing and the post was conveniently timed.

>>136568363
Because you're a dumb phoneposter.

>>136568363
Have a (you)

>>136568414
And then they come up with the excuse that the previous Republican and Romney achieved a much higher margin, despite the previous INCUBANT being highly popular in this district and Romney being generally more popular among educated whites than Trump.

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>>136568466
>stretchmarks

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>>136568466

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What did the slave owners mean by this?

Where to read why Trump was shitting on blumenthal yesterday?

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>mfw Al Gore movie bombed at the box office

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Good morning America from Mississippi.
>>136568436
A (You) Starved Beast!

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>>136568135

I don't like him adhering so closely to any one news source, it's inherently fragile and creates incentives for corruption of that source through pandering and cronyism.

Unfortunately I also can't really blame him for sticking with the damn show because so much of the rest of the right wing media is so utterly pathetic right now. Breitbart has become a total sham, literally when they were on the cusp of breaking through. The other traditional right wing media is still in the grasp of neocons and the alt media is mostly crazy youtube personalities. Pretty much the only well run right wing paper I know is the Washington Examiner.

Just when Trump is bringing the right wing into prominence, they're proving how terrible they are at messaging and governance. They really should do better, there's no excuse. If Trump died tomorrow, the GOP would be right back where it started. They've imbibed none of the lessons of the election... And to a certain extent, that includes /pol/. Everyone has grown too comfortable with enjoying a victory that was largely the work of a single man.

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>>136567795
>CNN poll

What did he mean by this?

Whats with all the Jew hate, seemingly out of nowhere?

>>136568402
>Bush was in the mid-20's and in an economic crisis before he lost seats.
Bush didn't have a big swing against him in 2002 because his popularity was insanely high, but there still wasn't a big swing towards the Republicans, only the lack of a swing to the Democrats. Trump is far from popular, and there will be a swing in vote terms away from Republicans in 2018, as the polls are already showing and other metrics are already correlating.
>All previous politicial history is based on elections where Republicans could win CA and Democrats Arkansas.
States always gradually change, nothing is new here. Arizona, Texas and Georgia are changing one way too, while Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin moved the other way.
>You have no idea what you are talking about.
Brilliant rebuttal. I'll break it down for you. In special elections, Democratic leaning groups do not turn out as much as Republican leaning groups. It's essentially just income and employment status. Where it was held by 1% in the general, the Republicans should've held it by >10% in the special.
>He won with 46% of the popular vote and currently he has 41% approval in a likely voter model, 40% in a registered voter model and 38% among all Americans.
His approval is closer to 35 than to 40. Net approval is -20, well behind any other president at the time of their first term.
>Even Nate Silver says that it's highly unlikely that Democrats will do well.
No reason to say "even" Nate Silver. If we're going to go by him though, he's just saying it's not certain that Democrats will actually win the election. What I'm saying is there will be a swing to the Democrats, certainly in votes terms. They will likely get more votes than the Republicans in the House but getting the most seats is still a tossup.
>Are you fucking kidding me? Special elections are called special because they are so irregular and with two non-incubants.
Incumbent advantage only works out to be about 2%, the demographic advantage(cont)

Is Trump just watching TV right now, going - "Tweet that, no that that, yeah, that one, tweet that one."

>>136568900
>it's a tucker loses the argument episode

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>>136568900
An oldie but a goodie.

https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/search/text/jew%20hate%20out%20of%20nowhere/

>>136569009
>>136568402
>>Are you fucking kidding me? Special elections are called special because they are so irregular and with two non-incubants.
Incumbent advantage only works out to be about 2%, the demographic (dis)advantage from special elections is much more than that.
>Now, they will have even lower turnouts in the 2018 election.
All groups on average have lower turnouts in the midterms.

>>136568900
ur on /pol

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He's retweeted about the opioid crisis now.

I wonder if CNN and the New York Times will shut the fuck up.

>>136566861
I thought Chaffetz was retiring?

>>136569207
Those are people who are being replaced. Chaffetz is being replaced.

>>136569142
see
>>136569135

>>136567567
>You don't have the slightest clue if you think the House is looking bad at all for republicans right now.
It's looking bad. Midterms bring out the opposition, and Trump is very unpopular.

>>136567378
DHS

Workers install the final panel in an upgrade of 7.5 miles of border fence near Naco, May 9, 2017
http://archive.is/MzAgi

Feds hunt down mystery landowners in bid to build borderwall
http://archive.is/Dj6XG

Prototypes for Trump's Mexico border wall to be built by September
http://archive.is/T0G8M

Army Corps starts pre-construction work on US–Mexico border wall
http://archive.is/EvfL0

Trump Administration Preparing Texas Wildlife Refuge for First Border Wall Segment
http://archive.is/AcC8G

Bill allocates $1.6 billion for Trump's border wall
http://archive.is/ja3c3

Construction of first (new) border wall segment to begin sooner than expected along Rio Grande
https://archive.is/oRd2a

Feds taking over Texas National Guard mission along border
https://archive.is/l6SOc

Border Patrol Morale at Highest Level, Says Agent
https://archive.is/VPOqo

Internal memo reveals ICE officers have free rein to detain any undocumented immigrant
https://archive.is/yfFzM

US agency raids Indian IT firms
https://archive.is/hIL4p

Silicon Valley Staffing Firm Charged in H1B Fraud
https://archive.is/sTj7G

U.S. immigration raids to target teenaged suspected gang members
https://archive.is/7aXF6

ICE chief: 80% jump in illegal targets, readies national 'sanctuary' crackdown
https://archive.is/g77SY

Jeff Sessions announces new crackdown on 'so-called' sanctuary cities
https://archive.is/6WZGh

ICE chief wants to slap smuggling charges on leaders of sanctuary cities
https://archive.is/7rlwN

Denver To ICE: Stop Arresting Illegal Immigrants At Courthouse. ICE To Denver: Not A Chance.
http://archive.is/IyFdk

ICE raids targeting families net 650 arrests
http://archive.is/XOJk1

17 Texas sheriffs are now approved to partner with ICE
https://archive.is/RvlXW

ICE crackdown in Pueblo scaring some families back to Mexico
https://archive.is/fqhUK

'Everyone is affected.' Immigration raids turn Oregon city into ghost town
https://archive.is/yzW35

>>136569009
>Bush didn't have a big swing against him in 2002 because his popularity was insanely high, but there still wasn't a big swing towards the Republicans, only the lack of a swing to the Democrats. Trump is far from popular, and there will be a swing in vote terms away from Republicans in 2018, as the polls are already showing and other metrics are already correlating.
But the polls are showing the opposite. Republicans keeping at least 230 seats (a maximum of an 11 swing seat in the House) and them gaining 5 seats in the Senate.
>States always gradually change, nothing is new here. Arizona, Texas and Georgia are changing one way too, while Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin moved the other way.
GA stayed pretty constant since 2008 due to whites voting more Republican. Texas became slightly more Democrat due to more Hispanics voting now than in both 2008 and 2012 but the margin is still 800k votes and Democrats won't flip TX until 2036-40 the earliest.
AZ will flip in 2024 but it's a long way until then.
>Brilliant rebuttal. I'll break it down for you. In special elections, Democratic leaning groups do not turn out as much as Republican leaning groups. It's essentially just income and employment status. Where it was held by 1% in the general, the Republicans should've held it by >10% in the special.
Are you fucking retarded? Neither Republicans nor Democrats have an advantage in these elections, not even historically.
>His approval is closer to 35 than to 40. Net approval is -20, well behind any other president at the time of their first term.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
Gallup 38%, Rasmussen 41%, CNN 40%
>They will likely get more votes than the Republicans in the House but getting the most seats is still a tossup.
Lol, Democrats got less votes in 2016 and they will also get less in 2018. Way less.
>Incumbent advantage only works out to be about 2%, the demographic advantage(cont)
Lol, nice source

>>136569257
You're still incorrect, the house is obviously secure after so much effort amounted to nothing in special elections and 2018 AB testing. You're point is based on flawed logic, as has already been said.

>>136569238
oh

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>>136569137
>Incumbent advantage only works out to be about 2%, the demographic (dis)advantage from special elections is much more than that.
Again, where are your sources? That's not even historically correct. Democrats won all special elections in 2009 before losing the House in 2010.
>All groups on average have lower turnouts in the midterms.
Sure, but some more than others. And less blacks now = even way less in 2018.

>>136569351
Its another secure seat, really. We are hoping RINOs and such don't jump in the spot in primaries.

>>136569257
>It's looking bad. Midterms bring out the opposition, and Trump is very unpopular.
This is wrong, Republicans generally have a higher turnout in midterms SIMPLY DUE TO DEMOGRAPHICS. There are not enough Democrat whites left in the competed districts.

Talking about opium today

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>>136567494
>I was talking about the midterm elections, where the opposition comes out to vote more, even when the president is popular

That's bullshit. The only real correlation for first term presidents is: democrat loses big, republicans, not so much. Pic related

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Is Fox really canning Eric Bolling for (((sexual allegations))) from Huffpoo? Who is running Fox and why are they still kikes?

>>136569619
Minor Murdochs

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Guess his next roasting victim will have to wait after this event.
And did i see some fag pushing the "vote Dem to punish Rep shit" again?

>>136569619
He's actually getting canned? Last think I saw was just the huffpo article.

>>136569612
That's exactly what I'm prediciting aswell. A few Democrat pickups but only about 10 at the most.

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>>136569612
>That Obama house and legislators bar that is so big the number doesn't show

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>>136566674
>>136569642
Happening. China and India are about to fight!

>>136569744
Yep. For Nevada of all seats. That seat is as good as lost tho, given that the current holder is not a Trump loyalist and the contender is a Harry Reid pick.

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>>136569805

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>Trump's going to be the Republican nominee in 2020

Um, no sweetie ;)

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>>136569744
>And did i see some fag pushing the "vote Dem to punish Rep shit" again?
Yes

>>136569780
My thoughts as well. I wonder what happened to republicans in that first Reagan midterm tho, considering Reagan would go to mop the floor with Mondale two years later.

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>tfw you're a tranny nazi and you just wanna serve the glorious god emperor of mankind in the army like your cousins and uncles but can't and will be too old to join the army by the time trump is gone
I just wanna pass stealth and shoot sand people, god dammit.
Is there any chance of like, a civil suit letting us back in like what happened with don't ask don't tell?
please, i'm not a tumblrite and i'm not after free stuff, i just want to shoot at the brown people with stupid hats.

>>136569329
>the house is obviously secure after so much effort amounted to nothing in special elections
The special elections were essentially a swing to the Democrats when the demographics of the special election is considered.
>>136569305
>Republicans keeping at least 230 seats (a maximum of an 11 swing seat in the House) and them gaining 5 seats in the Senate.
230 seats sounds reasonable, but that's on the higher end of the Republican estimate. Very close to losing the majority. As for the Senate, it's ridiculous to think Republicans will gain five seats, that's literally just looking at the conservative states the Democrats hold.
>GA stayed pretty constant since 2008 due to whites voting more Republican. Texas became slightly more Democrat due to more Hispanics voting now than in both 2008 and 2012 but the margin is still 800k votes and Democrats won't flip TX until 2036-40 the earliest.
AZ will flip in 2024 but it's a long way until then.
Less about race, more about age. Especially when talking about midterms, since lower working people of any race are equally unlikely to vote, but the white old population is a solid bloc for Republicans, not white people in general.
>Neither Republicans nor Democrats have an advantage in these elections, not even historically.
Republicans do better in less important elections, all else being equal.
>Gallup 38%, Rasmussen 41%, CNN 40%
IBD 32%, previous Gallop 36%, that CNN is actually 38% not 40%.
>Democrats got less votes in 2016 and they will also get less in 2018.
Most likely less than in 2016, but more than the Republicans in 2018. Doesn't necessarily mean more seats though.
>Again, where are your sources? That's not even historically correct.
Sophomore effect is generally considered to be around 2%, which is how the incumbent effect is measured.
>Sure, but some more than others.
The demographic advantage is one for the Republicans, but Trump's disapproval and the midterm reaction is two for the Democrats.

>>136569907
Reminds me of the poll where Kasich beat Hillary by 15%.

>>136569907
kek, having a republican primary would be awesome, would Kasich be 0 for 20, 0 for 30 again?

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Find me something more jewish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-08/google-fires-employee-behind-controversial-diversity-memo

>>136569612
That's only time series data, doesn't consider the popularity of the presidents. When balanced for presidential popularity, both Republicans and Democrats face midterm reaction. It has to be Bush 2002 levels of popularity, and even then it's not much.

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>>136569967
>The special elections were essentially a swing to the Democrats when the demographics of the special election is considered.

Haha, no. Take Georgia. Ossoff spent millions, likely the largest operation for a special election seat ever and failed to beat the numbers of the candidate running in the regular election.

That means one thing: that number is the exact achievable total number of democrats in that district, they could spend 5 times that amount and not a single extra voter would be found. There was no blue swing, democrats didn't swing a single red vote there, they simply maxed the blue votes they had and even then they lost

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Looks like he's getting the 'Trump treatment'

http://archive.is/M6zSg

>>136566870
10/10 would hate fuck

>>136569967
>230 seats sounds reasonable, but that's on the higher end of the Republican estimate. Very close to losing the majority
Nope, 230 Republican seats is what even most pollster believe will be the most accurate result. Possibly higher.
https://insideelections.com/ratings/spectrum/2018-house-ratings-august-4-2017/house
>Less about race, more about age. Especially when talking about midterms, since lower working people of any race are equally unlikely to vote, but the white old population is a solid bloc for Republicans, not white people in general.
And they turn out and vote Republican. All Democratic groups don't.
>Republicans do better in less important elections, all else being equal.
Wrong, see 2009.
>IBD 32%, previous Gallop 36%, that CNN is actually 38% not 40%.
It literally says CNN 40%.
>Most likely less than in 2016, but more than the Republicans in 2018. Doesn't necessarily mean more seats though.
Nope, they will do even worse because their favourite voters, niggers, don't turn up to vote. Bad news for Democrats, see 2014.
>Sophomore effect is generally considered to be around 2%, which is how the incumbent effect is measured.
The Portugal anon proved you wrong already. Only counts for Democrats.
>The demographic advantage is one for the Republicans, but Trump's disapproval and the midterm reaction is two for the Democrats.
Midterm reaction only applies to Democrat presidents, Trump's disapproval is based on character issues, not job approval. Most of his stances and policies are popular.

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>>136569924
A nice article on the matter. A bit of a spooky resonance.

http://www.nytimes.com/1982/12/29/us/reagan-at-midterm-news-analysis.html

>''It's the year when people will judge the President not only by the goals he articulated in the campaign or the legislation he has passed, but how his program has affected their lives,'' Mr. Wirthlin said. ''It's also a year in which foreign policy will be given a more severe test.''

>Their brimming optimism of 1981 has been tempered by recession and losses in the November elections as well as by stunning defeats on the MX missile and other issues in the recent special session of Congress. They concede not only the strain of recession but broad Congressional disillusion with the economic program, a perceptible shift in power from the White House toward Congress since November, and open splits and uneasiness among Republicans, especially while there is uncertainty whether Mr. Reagan intends to run in 1984. On Capitol Hill, Republicans grumble that the White House is not being well run but is hobbled by factional tensions.

>''You can't govern this country when it's polarized,'' said Senator William Cohen, a Republican moderate from Maine. ''I think the President has got to compromise on most issues until the unemployment rate comes down.''

>Beyond that, White House strategists acknowledge that the elections showed an erosion of public support; many minority, blue collar and elderly voters who supported Mr. Reagan in 1980 went back to the Democratic Party.

>In sum, the President's political impact has diminished.

>It is almost inevitable that the sense of pressure on all fronts raises the question of changes in the Reagan Cabinet or White House staff, often traditional in a third year. Cabinet Changes Expected

This is really really spooky similar talking points.

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>It's a Fronland Crump loses his shit on twitter during morning episode

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>>136570229
What are her Russian connections, they must be there

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>>136570091
>When balanced for presidential popularity, both Republicans and Democrats face midterm reaction

Again, if you mean popularity in the year before the midterms (the only real data we have now) that's also bullshit, one that I had prepared something before.

Pic related, Obama had the highest popularity of democrats and Reagan, the highest popularity of the republicans in the year prior the midterms (present year, for Trump) and they had the biggest lost of seats of them all.

>>136570329
>"'I think the President has got to compromise on most issues until the unemployment rate comes down.''
But that's not the case at all and Trump is doing well in foreign policy. No unnecessary wars, no making new enemies.

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I just turned on F&F, who is this fucking nigger?

>>136570458
I agree, I am saying dems are claiming Trump needs to come down.

>>136570563
We will probably see more primary shilling in 2019-2020.

>>136570329
Ouch, recession and unemployment in 1981 was a bitch, IIRC inflation as well. That explains it and likely explains why Trump is so adamant in highlighting why the economy is so strong

>>136570633
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval_economy-6182.html
Every non-shill poll has Trump positive on economic approval.

Nikki Haley on F&F

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>>136570458
>No unnecessary wars, no making new enemies.
>good foreign policy
No! Bad goy!

>>136570222
>Haha, no. Take Georgia. Ossoff spent millions, likely the largest operation for a special election seat ever and failed to beat the numbers of the candidate running in the regular election.
Republicans spent slightly more than the Democrats did though. Both spent tens of millions.
There was an effective swing when considering the demographic group that turns out for special elections, which have by far the lowest turnout of all, which favours the Republicans naturally.
>>136570249
>And they turn out and vote Republican. All Democratic groups don't.
As I said, that's the one advantage Republicans have. Democrats have two.
>It literally says CNN 40%.
I'm seeing CNN 38%, I assume it must be adjusted down for house effects.
>The Portugal anon proved you wrong already. Only counts for Democrats.
I already dealt with them.
>Midterm reaction only applies to Democrat presidents
Applies to all, even Bush in 2002. Which his popularity that high, in any normal circumstance there would be a massive swing to the Republicans, but the midterm reaction cancelled it out.
>Trump's disapproval is based on character issues, not job approval. Most of his stances and policies are popular.
Doesn't matter either way, but it is approval. Republican policies (which are his policies) are largely unpopular.
>>136570455
>Again, if you mean popularity in the year before the midterms (the only real data we have now) that's also bullshit
How about popularity at the time of the midterm elections then. Bush early 2001 and late 2002 are as different as can be. Fake data.

>>136570736
The economy is undeniably in recovery and growth beyond previous levels. We are meeting economic metrics that were similar to the mid Bush Years and the good years before Bush.

>>136570836
And it's BECAUSE of industry growth and the job market. Not some fake housing market bubble.
We're in good shape.

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>>136569852
>>136569920
>Took a look at the information
I can see why NVfag got blackpilled.
>Dean Heller
>Endorsed by a Dem donor.
>Other candidate for Rep is perennial
>Dem candidate is Jacky Rosen or Dina Titus (Harry Reid pick)
Hope they will vote for Dean instead of go fuck all.

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Shes right, you know

Sad thing is, all these sanctions effect the North Korean people

I really hope people don't just relax through the midterms and assume nothing bad can possibly go wrong. Look it's great to celebrate all the big wins like Ossof and that bodyslam guy but I think it would be pretty ridiculous to just lie back and assume everything's going to go our way without us having to lift a finger and devote our meme energy to maximizing the best possible outcome again. Even if the numbers are on our side it just feels repugnant to act like Hillary did and assume we have it in the bag.

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>>136571135
Sure she is.

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>>136571135

>>136571191
pretty sure we are going to be heavily focused on trying to primary any RINOs and traitors who are vulnerable

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>>136571135

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>"Ok cool!"
What did she mean by this? No, really, I have no clue what she meant, I'm just an autistic virgin trying to make friends

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No ‘first lady’ title for Brigitte Macron after petition over her status

>The French president’s wife, Brigitte Macron, will not be given an official “first lady” title or her own budget, the French government has said following a petition against a proposed change to her status.
>uring his election campaign, Macron promised to “clarify” his wife’s role to “end the hypocrisy” over the situation. One of Macron’s first actions after taking power was to set up a working party to examine the “first lady” position.
>The proposed charter to clarify Brigitte Macron’s status will define a clear role for the president’s spouse and make public for the first time the precise number of staff working for her and the total cost to the French taxpayer.
>At present, neither the French constitution nor protocol establishes any rules and previous presidents’ spouses made it up as they went along. Their public and charity work is financed out of the Elysée’s annual budget of €5m-€7m (£4.5m-£6.3m).

http://archive.is/YENRk

>>136570786
>Fake data.

Not fake data anon, we're comparing same with same. Considering we have no data on Trump polls in 2018 (our resident gypsy fortune teller is at vacations) it's not scientific sound to compare know factors with unknown, only known with known.

Every reference you make of Trump current job approval polls can only be compared with similar numbers from his counterparts, meaning first term presidents in their first years. Anything other than that would require an assumption of Trump approval numbers in one year.

Do you agree?

>>136570786
>Republicans spent slightly more than the Democrats did though.
That's misleading. I've seen the expenditure numbers, the only metric by which republicans spent more is if you only consider what the Georgia GOP spent vs. what the Georgia DNC spent. Most of the expenditure in that campaign came from "independent" PACs and pro Ossoff and anti Handel PACs outspent everybody else by a factor of 5.

You are dodging my point tho. Let's simplify the reasoning with a thought exercise:

> election A: candidate X make some Youtube videos, do not even put a real fight against the incumbent. Net's 100 000 votes.
> special election B: candidate Y make national news, spend millions, has millions spent on his campaign from out of state, put the fight of his life against a literally who that just won against some other 5 contenders in a primary of literally whos. Net's 96 000 votes.

Did candidate Y performance shows a swing for his party or did it just show that they don't have the votes in that district to be competitive?

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Just kill them desu.

>>136570786
>As I said, that's the one advantage Republicans have. Democrats have two.
They have NO advantage.
>I'm seeing CNN 38%, I assume it must be adjusted down for house effects.
It literally says CNN 40%. Gallup 38%.
>I already dealt with them.
You didn't.
>Applies to all, even Bush in 2002. Which his popularity that high, in any normal circumstance there would be a massive swing to the Republicans, but the midterm reaction cancelled it out.
Nope, Bush just gained because Republicans vote. He only lost when his base turned Democrat.
>Doesn't matter either way, but it is approval. Republican policies (which are his policies) are largely unpopular.
No they aren't. Tax reform etc are highly popular and the wall is incredibly popular among the base.

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>>136571197
>when the meme is just right

>>136571010
Dean is okay even if he's not perfect.
>>136571191
Obviously not, we will all need to donate if possible and go out and vote. But we do have a good advantage.

>>136571730
>Dean is okay even if he's not perfect.
Having a republican voting 80% with the president is better than having a democrat voting 0%. The time to act is at the primaries, after that is voting R downballot

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>>136571191
>to go our way without us having to lift a finger and devote our meme energy to maximizing the best possible outcome again

Way ahead of you mate, pic related

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>>136568640
The GOP/DNC establishment are plant aliens masquerading as humans.

>>136566870
God I wanna fuck her. How tall is she?

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Defend this RIGHT NOW

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>>136566870
*rapes*

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>>136566870

THAT WOMAN NUMBER ONE, IS UGLY


IMAGINE HOW BAD SHE SMELLS MAN

>>136566957
Wew post more

>>136571609
>Not fake data anon, we're comparing same with same.
You're not adjusting them for popularity at their actual midterm though. Their popularity at one point in their first year means nothing here.

It's true that predicting November 2018 is predicting the future, of course. Things would have to change dramatically, but as of now it's pretty clear. The changes until then could go either way.
>Every reference you make of Trump current job approval polls can only be compared with similar numbers from his counterparts
That's a separate issue to proving the statistical seasonal fact about midterm elections, because it exists completely regardless of Trump. Either way, he has been consistently less popular at every point of his presidency so far than every other president.
>That's misleading. I've seen the expenditure numbers, the only metric by which republicans spent more is if you only consider what the Georgia GOP spent vs. what the Georgia DNC spent.
I'm counting television and radio ads by candidate.
>Did candidate Y performance shows a swing for his party or did it just show that they don't have the votes in that district to be competitive?
I'd have to see all the information.
>>136571645
>They have NO advantage.
It's the midterm reaction + Trump unpopularity versus demographic midterm advantage.
>It literally says CNN 40%. Gallup 38%.
Adjusting for house effects then, to be more accurate obviously.
>Nope, Bush just gained because Republicans vote. He only lost when his base turned Democrat.
His base didn't switch parties, they don't do that.
>No they aren't. Tax reform etc are highly popular and the wall is incredibly popular among the base.
I didn't say the base, I said overall popularity. Lower taxes for the rich and higher taxes for the poor and middle class are largely unpopular.

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>>136571878
>>136571730
>>136571368
Awesome, I am excited to see the energy rising.

>>136572136

5'9"

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>>136567441
So after 8 years of the left calling us "rayssits", NOW they say ppl hated the Nigger because he was a leftest POS, wow !
I had never been called a rayssit so much, till the nigger was elected, and I'm a known Raysist !

>>136571135

Men are women.
War is peace.
Diversity is strength.

>>136571878
Did he really wear that shirt?

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>>136572179
Grouse are pretty good. Most favorite thing to hunt.

>>136567404
>>Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) reported raising $3.1 million in the second quarter.
And Ann Wagner decided against a run for that seat.

>>136568402

Stop feeding the troll, asshole

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>>136572302

>>136567019
Yeah Cuomo isn't leaving. I'm still going to vote though. Fuck diblasio

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>>136572236
>It's the midterm reaction + Trump unpopularity versus demographic midterm advantage.
Midterm reaction got disproven by Portugal's chart. Trump's "unpopularity" is more of a meme than anything.
>Adjusting for house effects then, to be more accurate obviously.
So you are adjusting to so called "House effect"? Holy shit are you retarded. A House effect would be Republicans going down to 48% (from 50%) and that has NOTHING to do with approval ratings. God are you retarded. And as I already showed you, the effect only applies to Democratic presidents.
>His base didn't switch parties, they don't do that.
When the economy is shit, they do. See NC, VA, NM, CO, NV.
>I didn't say the base, I said overall popularity. Lower taxes for the rich and higher taxes for the poor and middle class are largely unpopular.
But that's not what Trump wants to do. Trump wants lower taxes for everyone, and wants also to close all loop holes. These are all highly popular policies.

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>>136572246
>ifunny

>>136572237
ENERGY
>>136572246
Don't mind it too much, you wouldn't get along with these people anyway.

>>136572472
I have to fight against disinformation.

>>136569927
Post your benis

>tfw forced to listen to CNN in waiting room
>they are boasting about their pollimg on Trumps approval rating

HELP

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>>136572536
and this is #53249 why I don't take public transportation

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I hate being friendzoned

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>>136571730
>>136571816
Aye, this is not the time to be be a pussy.

>>136572688


I thought it was a pack of muslim women

>>136571135
Maybe women should stick to those things then

>>136572746
>I hate being friendzoned
No one cares faggot

>>>/r9k/

>>136572531
>Midterm reaction got disproven by Portugal's chart.
It's actually proven by that chart when you understand that Bush was massively popular then, and those with the biggest swing were the least popular. If Bush couldn't even get a big swing, no chance an unpopular president can get a swing towards them.
>So you are adjusting to so called "House effect"?
It's not my adjustment, it's the aggregator adjustment. I have no idea what it's based on. House effect is where a polling company has a persistent lean towards a political party. Because you clearly don't know, you aren't an authority at all on polling.
>When the economy is shit, they do. See NC, VA, NM, CO, NV.
Not the bases.
>But that's not what Trump wants to do. Trump wants lower taxes for everyone
Incorrect, Trump wants much higher tariffs. That's sales taxes.

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>>136572868
I bet you got it too faggot

>>136572746
Tell her you want more

>>136572746

some of my best friends were chicks that have friendzoned me

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>>136572230
This is all I got pham

>>136572239
Not as tall as I would think. She must be all legs

>>136572462
>McCaskill
Will be gassed next election

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>>136572933
Not bad

>>136568900
>Whats with all the Jew hate, seemingly out of nowhere?
The Jews are destroying Western Civilization. Why are you not outraged?

>>136572901
>It's actually proven by that chart when you understand that Bush was massively popular then, and those with the biggest swing were the least popular. If Bush couldn't even get a big swing, no chance an unpopular president can get a swing towards them.
What about the other ones? Portugal didn't just show Bush and Obama m8
>It's not my adjustment, it's the aggregator adjustment. I have no idea what it's based on. House effect is where a polling company has a persistent lean towards a political party. Because you clearly don't know, you aren't an authority at all on polling
But you are wrong, actual pollsters disagree.

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WE

WUZ

PRISONERS

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>>136568900
No idea, man.

>>136567524
What bike is she on?

>>136572462

Funposting aside, she was more concerned about the Republican challenger (who is running, and likely would have destroyed her in the primary) than Claire.

>>136572913
This isnt your blog, fag. I bet your that same guy bitching about phone numbers. Post on topic.

>Jason Chaffetz trying to rebrand his slimy deep-state past now that he has no responsibility to the American people
Fucking kike

>>136568900

>Why is water wet?

>>136566674
>boomer shrine
Gas yourself OP.

nearly a year later and #WhyTrumpWon is trending on twitter

>>136573089
>What about the other ones? Portugal didn't just show Bush and Obama m8
It all well and truly shows there is a midterm reaction when popularity is scaled to neutral. That's why high popularity is much less of a swing towards than low popularity is a swing against.
>But you are wrong, actual pollsters disagree.
I'm not the one claiming CNN should be scaled to 38 from the raw 40. That's just what I'm seeing.

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>Another Osprey crashed and killed some Marines
Why the fuck do we still use these pieces of shit again?

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NOTHING RELEVANT HAPPENED IN THE PAST DAYS

AAAARGGHHH

>>136572901
>Not the bases.
But the base did.
>Incorrect, Trump wants much higher tariffs. That's sales taxes.
And the countries of origin will suffer.
>It all well and truly shows there is a midterm reaction when popularity is scaled to neutral. That's why high popularity is much less of a swing towards than low popularity is a swing against.
Reagan and Obama had a high popularity and both lost the most. Nice historics.
>I'm not the one claiming CNN should be scaled to 38 from the raw 40. That's just what I'm seeing.
But scaling works from the HOUSE ELECTIONS in 2016, which Republicans won by 50%. IF THERE WAS A HOUSE EFFECT (there isn't for Republicans), they would still get 48%, not 40% you giant moron.
And the pollsters are already saying that at most, Democucks can only win 11 seats but they will likely win a lot less. Maybe 3-5.
Meanwhile, we will win bigly in the Senate.

>>136573370

they look cool?
no real reason otherwise

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>>136573548
>shittier than an actual helicopter
>shittier than an actual plane
>constantly fucking crash
Put them in the garbage where they belong.

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WHY DOES NO ONE GIVE A FUCK THAT TRUMP WANTS TO REPEAL NET NEUTRALITY??? WE MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO BROWSE 4CHAN IF ITS DEREGULATED!!

>>136571135
>pink haired asian most likely born and raised in a liberal US city

Into the trash it goes

>>136573370
I guess the military likes them because of Half Life

>>136572179
pretty bird

>>136573545
>And the countries of origin will suffer.
Taxes work both ways. Cuts into sellers profits but also raises prices.
>Reagan and Obama had a high popularity and both lost the most. Nice historics.
That's exactly what I'm saying. Even with relatively good popularity, but still not as high as Bush 2002 at those particular times, they suffered swings. Remember thought that while Reagan and Obama are remembered as popular presidents, they weren't always popular all the time.
>But scaling works from the HOUSE ELECTIONS in 2016
That's... not what house effects are.

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>>136573370

I told you. Stop Google. Now. Trump can do it, Google has a monopoly, one of the most powerful and far reaching ones ever. Break the company down.

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>>136572930
>being friends with a woman
top ruse m8

>>136573911
>Taxes work both ways. Cuts into sellers profits but also raises prices.
And people buy locally.
>That's exactly what I'm saying. Even with relatively good popularity, but still not as high as Bush 2002 at those particular times, they suffered swings
But higher ones than other presidents with lower approval ratings. A good example would be Bill Clinton. Pretty unpopular but far less losses than Obama.
>That's... not what house effects are.
That is exactly what you claim House effects are. They are supposed to be based on the House election in the presidential year, not on temporary approval ratings of a president you big fucking retard. And Republicans won the House the last 7 years.

>>136573370
Special interests.

does time go noticeably faster for anyone else?

My body clock is on a 28 hour schedule that I can't get off of
once I wake up I'm not sleepy for 20 hours
then I want to sleep 8 when I pass out again

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>>136574019
I'm all for making Twitter and Google public utilities and subjecting them to the First Amendment. The Bernie babies would eat that shit up if we tell them it'll be even more free somehow

>>136574064
been years since I've had a true friend who was a guy
they end up just being useful buddies

only true friends for years now have been girls

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>>136573184
Apparently it's a 'Zanzotti Digimoto'

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REEEEEEEE WHY IS DRUMPF HAVING A PRESS CONFERENCE HE'S SUPPOSED TO BE ON VACATION #RESIST #IMPEACH45

>>136573911
Also, Nate Silver said that a 3% swing would be incredibly good and it still wouldn't be enough to win more than a dozen seats. And Democrats will likely to worse in 2018 than they did in 2016. Their voters are the young and the minorities and only the first group is actually more motivated now, the latter a lot less. You will see how the coalition of older whites, Asians and Hispanics will kill the Democrats in 2018 again.

>>136574169
Nothing compares to Trump

>>136574168
Are you fat?

>>136574169
Is Trump making every liberal go insane?
This is fucking hilarious.

>>136574168
I kind of like having 'girl-friends' honestly.

>>136574196
War on Drugs pt 2.

>>136574157
That could also work
But it needs to be done now while it still can be.

>>136573911
>That's exactly what I'm saying
No, it's not. You are saying "the lower the popularity the more seats a party will lose". I proved that wrong. You are reaching for "fortune telling" and trying to wiggle out of your original position. You cant.

>>136574078
House effect is nothing to do with House of Representatives. Anyway, you're clearly very distressed.

Daily reminder of Pence being a globalist.

>>136574237

6'2" 180

horribly out of shape though

>>136574288
>You are saying "the lower the popularity the more seats a party will lose". I proved that wrong.
Yes, if popularity moves down, number of seats won moves down also.

>>136574302
At this point who isn't a globalist? Honestly though, who is there we can trust?

>>136573370
Look at the fucking thing. How could it NOT crash?

>>136574169
Who's this train wreck that thinks they're important

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>Australian intellectuals think they understand the American political scene

>>136574297
>called House effect
>nothing to do with the House
It doesn't exist for Republicans. No Republican ever really lost anything at all in midterms.
>Anyway, you're clearly very distressed.
I have to refute shitposters and trolls or else they win the information war.

>>136574385
some bint that shit on pope john paul ii once

>>136573338
They're only just calming down enough to figure it out

>>136574338
>Yes, if popularity moves down, number of seats won moves down also.

So you are saying Obama in 2010 had the lowest popularity of all presidents in that chart?

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>>136574196
HOW DARE HE WORK TO AID THE COUNTRY
AHHHHHHHH

>>136574385
>being this young

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>>136574169
Fucking hell

>>136574302
P A Y
A
Y

>>136566948
>Democrats will be pouring all their effort into preventing 4-5 seat gains.
this crop of dems is retarded, they're gonna be throwing money at unwinnable seats and ignoring their vulnerabilities. The last thing we need to do is take a few tossups and then lose some "safe" seats because we got lazy

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>>136571135
Baking is engineering, this is why the best pastry chefs in the world are men.

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>>136567221
>following his offensive suggestion that women who have abortions should be punished
how is that offensive

>>136574659

Top fashion designers? Top chiefs? All men. Women can't even excel at the things they're supposed to be good at

>>136568126
>It takes a very popular president to just not have losses in the first midterm election.
maybe a decade+ ago when politics wasn't so partisan

>>136574651
They can't keep track of all that money they're throwing around.

How can we get some of that?

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>>136566780
NEVADAWOO~

Consider Heller out.

>>136574833
Add barbers to that list.

>>136574157
No they wont

They have no principles, they follow their heart
If Trump wants to hurt their precious google, they'll kill people to defend it

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>>136574176
>rewatching Kino
>planning on rereading the LN's
>urge to buy a motorcycle and travel the states intensifies
I still want a Victory Judge really bad.