Any of you guys like Ray Kurzweil?

>>18104982
Do I like the idea of android sex?
Yes. I believe I do.

>>18104982
Why the fuck aren't more people talking about this? We might transcend being human in like 30 years and most people aren't even aware it's coming

He's too far ahead of his times. The concepts a friend introduced to me of Ray's, by way of a Netflix documentary are only now just coming into my awareness as not only plausible, but inevitable. And this was like a decade ago.

The meme-ularity will never happen, and technological advancement would only progress as a sigmoid curve even if strong AI were ever to take off. We aren't anywhere close a breakthrough like that anyway though.

It's a sci-fi jerkoff fantasy for fags who want their secular rapture.

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>>18104982
Hes a circus ring leader. Selling untested health supplements, telling people they can live forever.

He exercises absolute intellectual dishonesty to frame things to fit his narrative. Exponential growth in the tech sector isn't a fact. Exponential growth is unheard of virtually anywhere. Everything trends towards normalization as the law of diminishing returns rears its head. Make no mistake, it is an absolute law. We aren't seeing exponential growth in serial integer performance per clock, regardless of ISA, every generational uplift has become smaller as we pluck the low hanging fruit for performance. Every additional bit of IPC costs more money than the last, takes more man hours than the last, becomes less certain than the last. This is diminishing returns.

Suppose a real hard AI is feasible, say IBM's DARPA project pays off. They create a huge supercomputer with their Synapse arch and just keep adding nodes to it. This machine intelligence would have to start designing ICs better than human engineers, and with a higher turn over rate. Not only would it have to accomplish this but it would have to start designing process IP full magnitudes more efficient than the rest of the industry.
Compute clusters targeting the exascale and beyond are tracking towards consuming 99% of all earth's power production. There will be no exponential growth anywhere, not even in Kurzweil fantasy land, if we can't produce the power necessary to run his false exponential growth god machines.

>>18106648
Not with that attitude ye' can't!

>>18104982
His website where he predicts all these crazy specific events and advancements reads more like an outline for a novel than a calender

It's a cool novel, mind you, but it seems a little far-fetched sometimes, like there's no way he can know all this is gonna happen

>>18108456
His site : http://www.futuretimeline.net/index.htm

>In the 2200s, everybody lives in VR, works less than 20 hours a week, and everything is free
>In the 2240s, Christianity will fade from American culture
>In 2021, Saudi Arabia will launch a mission to Mars
>By the 2050s, most countries will be democracies

I'm not putting any money on this guy

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>>18106648
Normalization of diminished returns can be overridden by careful recalculation and regulation of scalar quantities, scrub. In essence, learn how to drive stick.

>>18108486
>Implying we're not going to be living in a Dyson sphere by 2050

>>18108501
Nice schizo word salad post.

>>18106648
You obviously don't know shit about Ray kurzweil. Kurzweil is one of the most highly regarded sampling keyboard/workstation companies.

>>18106576

>Secular Rapture.

This. It's transparent as fuck that this is another fairy tale to keep the bluepillers turning the wheels. Yes consumer, it's coming any day now, you just keep everything status quo at the time, the AI is gonna fix everything, promise.

what a fucking joke

>>18108518
Anon's right though. Let me translate it, since apparently you only remember how to speak memes.

"Well then, we'll just find a better way to compute rather than relying on the transistor design."

Is that acceptable? Is enough of that sentence parsed from familiar phrases that you've heard before, that you can grasp the concept? I had to put the words "the transistor design" all in a row there, and I know that's not something you'd typically see on MTV, or FB, so... I can clarify what a transistor is with metaphors if you need. Just lemme' know by rudely insulting me, and then begging for help on how to understand English again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGUNPMPrxvA

>WORD SALAD, BREUH! WORD SALAD! NICE.

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>>18109580
Hes not right about anything, the post is literal nonsense.
That quote is equally as meaningless. The implementation of the ISA isn't the issue. Implement any design on a theoretical superconductor substrate that facilitates 1thz switching and you end up with the same IPC at a higher clock rate. Thats fantastic, but serial integer performance per clock hasn't increased at all. Once you reach the practical switching limit and the signaling rate within the medium nears the speed of light you cannot gain more frequency. Ever. You have the same IPC, and now clocks have nowhere to go.
Exactly as I stated, this problem is independent from ISA. Every 1% performance uplift in raw IPC takes thousands of man hours, and more than the last. Every uplift costs more than the last. This trend will not ever change because diminishing returns is a law.

I'm an EE student.
You do not understand anything about transistor characterization.
You do not understand anything about the electrostatic properties of a switching device.
You do not understand anything about IC design.
You don't understand anything at all about the issues pointed out.
You're parroting things that you're incapable of comprehending.

>>18110640
So, do you want to know what the solution is, or what? Note: I am not talking about quantum computers.

>>18110661
I'm not asking someone with half of my IQ for a solution to anything. I'm stating simple facts.
The fact that you'd even mention quantum computing is laughable because its subject to all the exact same limitations.

Technology will keep advancing and at an ever more accelerated rate, until "it" happens.

It's fun to think about, and it's not an entirely unreasonable assumption.

A superintelligence, where the brain is enhanced and all of humanity, who are willing, or who can afford it, will be connected to a kind of cloud consciousness, is probably going to happen.

AI with self-awareness is probably stretching it.

>>18110667
Welp. I agree with you on only one aspect; the transistor design is subject to limitations, and the solution to overcoming those limitations is to utilize an alternate architecture for processing signals.

>>18110690
Oh look, you're throwing out words you don't understand again.
Try rereading this until your pleb brain starts to understand it: >>18110640

>>18110699
Is it possible for you to have a conversation without telling others what they're supposed to think?

>>18110700
More schizo word salad coming out? Having a problem reading simple sentences?
I'm not telling anyone what they're supposed to think, I'm stating facts. The fact that targeting clock speed is ultimately a dead end, and that performance uplifts will always have to come from architecture when process cannot deliver higher frequency. The fact that these performance uplifts require progressively more investment with every successive iteration. Diminishing returns is a fact. It is a law.

Why do you sit there and pretend like you're capable of understand this when you're demonstrably not?

>>18110667
>>18110640
Student. Thinks he is master of knowledge. Use attacks and non-logical rational for arguments. Maybe doing a dissertation will humble your ass.

>>18110726
>I don't have an argument
>I'm not nearly intelligent enough to grasp the material
>I'll lazily attack the man instead

Thats cute.
Nothing I've stated is up for debate. Its a fundamental problem that will never go away. Diminishing returns is a law, and its the single law that governs all of the semiconductor industry.

>>18108501
lmao how's first year uni going m8

>>18106525

Transcendence in the material is a lie. A lie to gain final control.

It all started with the idea of evolution despite even that being a macro idea at the time that even the micro evidence now doesn't support if you really look at it. We won't be better, but worse. Tainting the natural vessels in an attempt at locking them into an infinite mortality to try and separate us from the karmic wheel to be controlled by the ignorant in order to satiate the fallen. The Lumin got dissatisfied at the end of the century ramping up their plans in a final attempt at satiating their god, and gain control themselves of the lower realm after silence scared them. They are now a self fulfilling prophecy, and too drunk on power and fear to fully realize it. The public will buy it, because it has been what we've been taught. Human's haven't changed, but we all know we can sink to new lows. The lowest of which is coming.

I believe the man in your photo buys into it, and knows some stuff, too. I don't accept him, but would have as a pre-teen into cyber-punk. Now as an opened empath I am made aware of our folly.

>>18110800
Kurzweil literally sells people on the idea of living forever. You nailed him pretty spot on.
Aside from giving his deep as a puddle futurist talks, he draws his income from selling health supplements. The supplements he sells center around increasing longevity, makeing no effort to skirt around it. He himself claims that the purpose of the supplements is to extend natural life long enough for there to be technological immortality. To that end he once stated he was taking some 80 pills per day.

The man is a populist tech figure. Basically a PR figurehead. There are dozens like him, all of them equally full of shit. Tell people they can live forever, maybe, one day, but if you take these pills they'll increase their chances, and hes the one selling the pills.
Totally trustworthy, right? If the FDA regulated health supplements he'd be put out of business over night.

>>18110825
Okay, now tell me your opinion on Elon Musk.

>>18110831
Elon Musk is just a business man. Like Steve Jobs.
In both cases people make the laughable mistake of giving them direct credit for things that their companies as a whole accomplished. While as individuals they never did anything more than over see management and greenlight or reject ideas.

>>18110838
>Elon Musk is just a business man. Like Steve Jobs.
This is all I asked for. Good stuff, I enjoyed reading you.
What about Google?

>>18110844

Satan. :)

>>18110844
Google is far too broad reaching to simply categorize, but for their involvement with manipulating news results on behalf of the US government their motto of doing no evil is satire.

>>18110850

Don't forget their investment into futurism, a.i., and robotics. :3

It's coming; they will create it. They already have.

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>>18104982
Kurzweil is a prophet.

His hypothesis seems highly probable to me. I've spent considerable time listening to many singularity skeptics and was not impressed. Peter Thiel being a notable exception.

http://www.kurzweilai.net/images/How-My-Predictions-Are-Faring.pdf
>http://www.kurzweilai.net/images/How-My-Predictions-Are-Faring.pdf

A PDF for your consideration. A bit dated now.

>>18110850
>>18110854
What about their involvement in Syria?

>>18110800
>It all started with the idea of evolution despite even that being a macro idea at the time that even the micro evidence now doesn't support if you really look at it.

Oh jeez. That people are still this backwards is depressing.

>>18110879
Editing search results for news stories involving Syria to control the narrative is something they've been doing, at the request of the government. Working to push their produced encapsulated little story. They did the same thing with Libya. The US was arming "rebels" (ISIS) in Libya, and trying to look this up on Google resulted in a bunch of sanitized pro narrative links.

They might as well be a cohesive ministry of surveillance and propaganda. A modern KGB. Seems thats all they're really interested in.

>>18109580
>we'll just find a better way to compute
The only physical way is quantum and other stuff, which is a headache, and subject to the same sub-atomic limitations.
Once you reach the limits of that, the only way to reach anything better is using pretty big black holes as your computational substrate.

his visions are interesting, but will die before they become realized. feels bad

>>18106576
>>18109577

/thread