Disclaimer: Math is not my passion and some regrets for choosing it as my major. Anyway, for my senior project I have to come up with an equation that can predict what team will win the 2014-2015 NBA season based on each team's "luck" and other factors. Unfortunately I have no idea how to do it or where to start. I have considered paying someone to do it for me. Can anyone help me figure this out or give me good online references? Thanks
>>334744
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory
I know somewhat generally what you have to do.
1. Account for all variables. Number of teams, winner, rounds etc.
2. Design it in such away to account for however the NBA is set up. stages/rounds/knockouts. assume matrices.
3. luck, I assume some form of variance is involved in the variables. Ie. scores etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_association_football_predictions
This page has some starting points and examples.
>>334744
try finding data from previous years and look for patterns (http://stats.nba.com/)
you might want to look at, e.g., team scores over time or, in general, any two different variables
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bivariate_analysis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_series
you could look at individual players, even