Who wins?

Can someone just run the Monte Carlo and get back to us?

I'm too lazy to type out the math but ignoring the werewolf's infection ability it's peasant. With that ability it's just random. Werewolf would statistically win if the fight went on long enough but there's no way of really knowing because it's random.

>>383739942
here, I did the math wrong actually

it's werewolf even without his ability, I forgot to factor in defense

werewolf needs on average 17.5 attacks to kill, even without his armor piercing, with that it goes down to about 13 or 14, with a quarter of his attacks having a 1/3rd chance to end the fight immediately

peasant needs about 20 attacks to kill on average

of course procs could change all of this but if you run an infinite number of sims these are the asymtotes you'll approach

>>383739598
>Peasant
Every two turns, on average will attack 5 times and one of those attacks will miss.
(70 - 50) x 4
= (20) x 4
= 80
80 / 2
= 40 damage on average per turn
1000 / 40 = 25 turns
>Werewolf
Will attack once every four turns on average, and every 16 turns will ignore defense on one attack.
(90 x 4 - 40 x 3) / 16
= (360 - 120) / 16
= (240) / 16
= 15 Damage per Turn on Average
500 / 15
=33.3333333 turns on average
Of course this is ignoring the instakill, as it would be a 1/3 chance after a 1/4 chance after a 1/4 chance, which means that it would take 48 hits for it to proc on average.
>>383740390
what the fuck how did you even get those numbers

>>383739598
if turning the peasant into a werewolf gives them full HP back then the answer is obvious

>>383741295
look at the very bottom of the image

Alright, where are the drawfags to turn that werewolf into a girl with a dick?

>>383739598
>eyelashes
it's very clear what you're trying to do

>>383741295
But he will stop attacking because she is a part of his species and a potential mate

might've coded it up wrong, but:

# trials: 1,000,000
Average # turns: 21.2
Peasant wins: 435,902
Werewolf wins: 540,847
Draws: 23,251

>>383740714
This math is correct. If the convert ability doesn't proc, the peasant will on average win on turn 25. Therefore the question is what is the chance it procs at least once before that turn.

The chance of a proc is 1/3 times 1/4 times 1/4, which is 1/48. Therefore, the chance of it never happening in the first 24 turns is (47/48)^24, which is .60333551899 (around 60%). Subtracting that from 1 (100%), we can see that the werewolf has around a 40% chance of winning before the average time it takes for the peasant to win.

If want the chance of him winning or tying, that is found by 1-(47/48)^25 (1-0.59076602901) or about 41%.

The turn 25 deadline is just an average, however the smart money would be on the peasant.

We had this thread last week.

>>383742754
It's different situations and other variables

>>383742894
Underdog vs strong baddy doesn't change.

File: mage vs mirror.png (124KB, 672x1300px) Image search: [Google]

124KB, 672x1300px

>>383742990
You just haven't been looking hard enough.

>>383743358
haven't done the math but after running it 5 times the wizard has only died once

>>383744089
my code says mirror wins ~60%

but i think it's fuckin' broken and i don't want to fix it

>>383743358
Anonymous Thu 06 Jul 2017 15:15:16 No.383042118 ViewReport
Mage
ATK - DEF
= 100 - 10
= 90
HP / DMG
= 100 / 90
= 1.111111
On average, every two attacks will be reflected by the Mirror and one attack will hit the mirror.
1.111111 x 3
= 3.333333 Attacks

Mirror
ATK - DEF
= 100 - 20
= 80
HP / DMG
= 200 / 80
= 2.5 Reflected Attacks
On average, every two out of three attacks will be reflected and one will hit. Of those two, one will be evaded, so for every three attacks, only one will hit the Mage. And for the attack that does hit, there is a 2/3 chance it will instakill and a 1/3 chance it will not instakill.

Don't ask me how to calculate that instakill percentage because I don't fucking know.