A woman of noble status is transformed into a werewolf after

>>383723886
MY DICK

>woman
dropped

>>383723886
>Peasant
Every two turns, on average will attack 5 times and one of those attacks will miss.
(70 - 50) x 4
= (20) x 4
= 80
80 / 2
= 40 damage on average per turn
1000 / 40 = 25 turns
>Werewolf
Will attack once every four turns on average, and every 16 turns will ignore defense on one attack.
(90 x 2 - 40) / 16
= (180 - 40) / 16
= (140) / 16
= 8.75 Damage per Turn on Average
500 / 8.75
=57.1428571429 turns on average
Of course this is ignoring the instakill, as it would be a 1/3 chance after a 1/4 chance after a 1/4 chance, which means that it would take 64 hits for it to proc on average.

1/48 chance the Werewolf insta-wins, so I'd bet on him.

>>383725128
Sorry *48 hits to proc on average
The Peasant still wins as it takes slightly over half the time it would take the werewolf to win for him to win.

>>383725128
More like

Every turn

Peasant:
Damage: (20*0.8)+0.5*((20*0.8)*4))

Wolf:
Damage:((50*0.25)+(90*0.25^2)+(0.25^3 * 500)

>americans in charge of statistics

Kek
>>383725128

>>383726940
>it's another yuropoors obsessed with America projects everyone to be American
top kek

>>383726835
holy hell those calculations are fucked what the hell dude

>>383727405
What part of it id fucked?
80% chance of hitting 20 damage plus 50% chance of hitting 4 times with a 80% hit chance for every hit for the peasant

25% chance to hit for 50 damage, with a 25% chance of hitting the target and 25% chance of triggering a 90 damage, and a 25% chance of hitting the target, 25% chance for ignoring defense and 25% chance of instakilling the peasant for the wolf

I'm getting 15 dmg average for the wolf

90 - 40
(50 * 3/4) + (90 * 1/4) = 60
60 / 4 = 15

>>383727898
Should be 33% for instakilling
But eh, the result is the same, the peasant on average should btfo the werewolf

So betting on him

>>383728059
You're forgetting the fact that on average armor ignore procs every fourth successful hit which only procs every four turns, ergo it would only proc every 16th turn.

>>383728362
Jesus christ mate, drop this
>on average X happens every Y turn

And just use percentages like an actual functioning educated man

>>383723886
If the peasant turns into a werewolf do they fuck?
This is an important calculation

>>383728542
>angry man spergs out because averages are but a foreign concept to him

File: 1468804705896.png (95KB, 243x222px) Image search: [Google]

95KB, 243x222px

>>383723886
>Pick Peasant
>Werewolf attacks me and I never dodge a single time
>75%
Fucking RNG.

File: 1499303214009.gif (263KB, 500x500px) Image search: [Google]

263KB, 500x500px

>>383728796
R E M I N D
Y O U R S E L F

instakill is just too broken

>>383723886
Do they fug?

File: 1486520156153.gif (323KB, 192x256px) Image search: [Google]

323KB, 192x256px

>>383723886
>woman
I shouldn't be surprised but I can't help but be disappointed. Pretty pathetic, OP.

Lewds when?

>>383725128
Hang on, even without the defense piercing trait, the wolf should deal far more damage than just 8.75 per turn on average

She deals 50 damage per hit and hits succesfully 1 of 4 turns in average, which is 12.5 damage per turn on average

Add to that the defense piercing trait and she deals even more damage than that.

>>383730494
Sorry, it should be around 240 damage in 16 turns, which averages out to 15 damage a turn.
500 / 15 = 33.33333333 turns on average.

>>383730991
Yeah, and then adding the instakill chance should put the wolf above the peasant

Lewds of the wolf when?

>>383731239
It really doesn't. That instakill on average would proc in 48 turns.

>>383731814
Yes, but that's just the average. It can proc way before (or after) 48 attacks. The chance to instakill is present in every single one of her attacks, and that should elevate her possibilities beyond the peasant's.

An exact calculation is still needed, though.

File: IMG_3752.jpg (591KB, 1357x1465px) Image search: [Google]

591KB, 1357x1465px

Why do women make such good werewolves? Is it a period thing?

File: why-me.jpg (37KB, 280x357px) Image search: [Google]

37KB, 280x357px

I've created a program on the fly to simulate this scenario as described, and peasant seems to get about 18.4% of the kills, leaving the werewolf victorious at 81.6% after 100,000 simulations.

>>383732386
Post code

>>383723886
I'm pretty sure the peasant will win a majority of the time if we're only factoring in raw damage, but my (probably completely innacurate) calculations estimate each fight will take about 25-40 turns and with an ~2% chance to get turned into a werewolf each turn that puts things massively in the wolf's favor.

>>383732504
I created it in smileBASIC, so be patient, I'll have to retype all that spaghetti and few will be able to interpret it.

>>383732241
And it only has a chance of occuring on average every 16 turns, while the peasant kills in 25 turns on average, meaning that the werewolf only has one chance to kill the peasant, so no, it's not anywhere close enough to elevate the werewolf's chances.
>>383732386
[Citation needef]

>>383732654
Nigga you don't know how averages work, the wolf has a 2,08% chance per attack to instakill the peasant and it is present in every single one of her attacks. It can definitely make a difference. I bet you think that in the minotaur vs kobold picture they're both equally as likely to kill each other.

File: lizard and doggie.png (67KB, 1092x1400px) Image search: [Google]

67KB, 1092x1400px

>a challenger approaches

>>383733451
Nigger, it sounds like you don't know how averages work.
On average, she will attack once in four turns. And in every four successful attacks, one will ignore armor. And in every armor-ignoring attack, she will turn the peasant into a werewolf every one in three turns. That means on average, her instakill procs every 48 turns. you inbred retard.

>>383733598
>1/4 instakill per attack.

File: please-understand.jpg (52KB, 800x682px) Image search: [Google]

52KB, 800x682px

ACLS
DATA 500,1000
DATA 70,90
DATA 40,50
DATA 75,20
DATA 50,25
DIM PSTATS[2,5]
FOR I=0 TO 4
FOR J=0 TO 1
READ PSTATS[J,I]
NEXT
NEXT
DIM STATS[2,8]
@START
FOR I=0 TO 4
FOR J=0 TO 1
STATS[J,I]=PSTATS[J,I]
NEXT
NEXT
@TURNSTART
FOR I=0 TO 1
STATS[I,5]=RND(100)<STATS[I,3]
STATS[I,6]=RND(100)<STATS[I,4]
NEXT

'PEASANT ATTACKS
FOR I=0 TO STATS[0,6]*3
STATS[1,0]=STATS[1,0]-(STATS[0,1]-STATS[1,2])*!(RND(100)<STATS[1,4])
NEXT

'WEREWOLF ATTACKS
STATS[0,0]=STATS[0,0]-(STATS[1,1]-(STATS[0,2]*!STATS[1,6]))*!STATS[0,5]
IF (!STATS[0,5]) AND STATS[1,6] THEN
STATS[0,0]=0
ENDIF

'COUNT DEATHS
IF (STATS[0,0]<1 OR (STATS[1,0]<1) THEN
FOR I=0 TO 1
STATS[I,7]=STATS[I,7]+(STATS[!I,0]<1)
NEXT
PRINT STATS[0,7]/(STATS[0,7]+STATS[1,7]),STATS[1,7]/(STATS[0,7]+STATS[1,7]),STATS[0,7]+STATS[1,7]
GOTO @START
ENDIF

GOTO @TURNSTART

'Sorry, I didn't expect anyone to be reviewing it. Keep in mind, I may have made mistakes in either the original program or the retyping process.

>>383733751
You're right, that weredog needs a significant boost as well.

>>383733598
The Werewolf on average takes 12 turns to turn the Dragon into a werewolf.
The Dragon on average will miss on 1 in 5 strikes and instantly kills in 1 in 4 strikes.
The Dragon will win on average.

>>383731814
>assuming your math is correct

So if instakill procs 1 out of every 48 turns on average, but the peasant takes 25 turns to kill the werewolf, could we say that the Werewolf has a 52% chance to win?

It stands to reason that if you were to take an infinite series of attacks, split them into groups of 48, 52% of them would have an instakill within the first 25... on average anyway.

Or is my math wrong.

>>383733686
Just because the instakill chance is 1/48 and the peasant kills the wolf in 25 turns in average doesn't mean it can't proc before 25 turns have passed you colossal idiot

>nobody talking about wanting to fuck the werewolf
FUCKING MATH NERDS AND YOUR $300K STARTING

File: 531.jpg (11KB, 321x322px) Image search: [Google]

11KB, 321x322px

>>383733598

>>383723886
You just want someone to draw them fucking don't you OP?

>>383734552
>i don't understand how averages work the post
Congratulations on telling us how you're a massive retard.

>>383734778
>>383733598
Yhea he want's to

>>383734847
Stop trolling me fag

>>383735079
You first fag

>>383735114
No u

>>383735158
no u

dammit guys talk about my code

>>383735456
I'd like to comment on it but I don't know how to interpret it.

Either way 81.6% victories for the werewolf is too many, both should be closer to 50%

>>383735698
Wait, I know what I did. I forgot to apply the 33% chance for the werewolf, so it would get the kill whenever the conditions were met.

>>383735456
Well tell us how to run it or something.
Smile isnt a 3ds program?

File: rat.jpg (74KB, 625x685px) Image search: [Google]

74KB, 625x685px

>>383734664
It's because he chose to make it female :^)
The dragon thread was full of scalies, but they didn't really come out until all the calculations were pretty much agreed upon

File: startdoingthisshit.png (2MB, 2816x1344px) Image search: [Google]

2MB, 2816x1344px

>>383735990

>>383735942
Having now applied the 33% chance, I'm seeing much different results. After 100,000 matches, the werewolf comes out on top with 50.66% of the kills. This was maintained rather consistently past a certain point in the simulation, so I'd say that's our number.

File: 1499387006876.jpg (51KB, 567x699px) Image search: [Google]

51KB, 567x699px

But who wins?

>>383723886
Just get to the part with the hot werewolf sex already

File: 1474980793981.jpg (174KB, 1200x1017px) Image search: [Google]

174KB, 1200x1017px

>>383735990
>>383736056

File: Untitled.jpg (254KB, 850x1233px) Image search: [Google]

254KB, 850x1233px

I wonder

>>383736653
>not using the femTodd edit

>>383733598
I want the lizzer to fuck me while I fuck the female werewolf

File: 1499637950391.png (1003KB, 1276x1120px) Image search: [Google]

1003KB, 1276x1120px

>>383733598
cute couple wins

>>383723886
I've still got my knight vs dragon simulation from a few threads ago

Gimme a bit and I'll rework it

File: humblegoatherder.webm (3MB, 960x540px) Image search: [Google]

3MB, 960x540px

>>383723886
The humble GOATherder of course