Well, /v/?

>>382546827
What's the dragon thing's hit %

>>382546827
how defense works?

>>382546827
This is one of those basic equations where all the factors even out in the end, isn't it?

>>382546827
how big is the dragon's dick

>>382547032
Dragon has a 10% chance to hit

>>382547042
damage = atk - def

>>382547032
10%

>>382547042
Atk-Def=Dam

>>382546827
It's a trick question. OP forgot to include their sexual self-identities. Thus there is not enough information needed to solve the equation.

>>382547246
>>382547251
His hit % wouldn't be 10% because you still have to factor in the knight might be a higher lvl or the dragon is using an inaccurate weapon plus you have to factor in glancing blows

>>382546827
So if knight crits does he do 180 or 60 dmg?

>>382546827
Roll to suck dragon dong

>>382546827

dragon and its not even close

>>382546827
now give the dragon tits and hips

dragon because it will trigger the insta-kill

>>382547680
Straights out

>Dragon has 25% insta-kill chance
>Kills the Knight in 4 hits anyway

W-wew.

>>382547421
Play with the givens my dude, you can forget about other factors

>>382547451
3 * 80 atk - 60 def = 180 dmg

>>382546827
Can I just romance the dragon

>>382546827
Dragon
>Kills human in 4 hits

Human
>Kills dragon in 75 hits

Dragon wins if it doesn't at least hit 4 times before the human makes hit 75 hit.

File: 1491229973344.jpg (41KB, 352x315px) Image search: [Google]

41KB, 352x315px

>"""dragon"""

Ok so if we assume that every 3 attacks the knight is gonna have a crit, then every 3 attacks he does he will deal 400 damage - (60*3) defense = 220 hp damage. So in order to do 1500 hp damage he will need 7 attacks. Assuming they have the same attack speed because no stat was provided the dragon has to attack at least 4 times to get a decent chance of instakilling the knight of depleting his hp through normal attacks. But since the dude has OP evasion because he stacks butterflies like a retard, that's not gonna happen. knight wins.

Gonna make a simulator and report back

>>382546827
Dragon because programmers can't into true neutral rng or percentage checks.

Statistically, it would take 40 hits for the dragon to kill instantly, I'm considering armor to be a flat decrease and that means 50 hits for death without the instant kill.

The knight needs 45 hits to kill (the special on the knight means 3 attacks is effectively 5 attacks, so 100 damage every 3).

My money is on the dragon.

>>382547957
Oh fuck im a retard nevermind. The knight will need 21 attacks. So the dragon on average will also get 21, out of which he will miss all but 2, so still, the knight wins.

File: 1447271010818.png (3KB, 411x354px) Image search: [Google]

3KB, 411x354px

>>382546827
>knight takes 18 turns to kill the beasty, averaging out shit

>beasty takes 34
>but has a 77.8% of instakilling the human in 18 turns

My moneys on the beast.

Can't Dragon kind and Knight kind just get along? We could be unstoppable, the world could be ours!

>>382546827
The lizard, Not even taking into account his instant kill the knight will only do 1300~ damage before the lizards base damage kills him

>>382547952
That would be true if it weren't for the knights critical chance. Because of the knights evasion it's going to get 40 hits on the dragon in the time it would take the dragon to hit him 4 times, and roughly 13 of those will be critical hits. Unless the dragon get really lucky he's going to lose.

Dragon will likely swing get time to swing 3 times at the knight.
That's a dead knight with about 58% occurrence chance.

>>382546827
I want to fuck that dragon.

>>382546827
whichever you choose loses because the RNG likes to fuck with yoy

File: 1498941036560.jpg (112KB, 750x730px) Image search: [Google]

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Knight:
>Needs to deal 1500 damage
>Deals 20 damage per attack
>Deal 100 damage per 3 attacks
>1500 / 100 = 15
>15 x 3 = 45
>Needs 45 attacks to kill the furfag

Furfag:
>Needs to deal 300hp
>Deals 90 damage per attack
>Needs to land 4 hits
>Since only 1/10 of his attacks hit he needs 40 turns
>2,5% chance to kill instantly

Furfag obviously wins, Knight needs 45 turns while furfag only needs 40, on top of that he has 2,5% chance to instakill knight every turn.
Obviously since it's RNG it all depends who's more lucky.

>>382547952
>American "education"

>>382548119
>but has a 77.8% of instakilling the human in 18 turns
How? in 18 turns he will on average get 1.8 hits

>>382546827

Assuming that damage is translated as (attk of A - def. of B) where B is defending and A is attacking, that dragon will kill the knight in 4 hits, regardless of the 25% chance to kill instantly. The statistic becomes technically, if not necessarily practically, useless.

Assuming their speed is equivalent to one another and they take turns, the knight deals 20 dmg/round, not including the triplicate modifier, which effectively turns his output into something like 33 dmg/round. 1500/33 = 45.45, 46 rounding up, meaning in 46 rounds, the knight will win.

Thus, the question is whether or not the monster can defeat the knight within 46 rounds by hitting him 4 times.

The knight has a 90% chance of dodging every round, so .9 ^ 46 tells us he has a .786% chance of dodging every attack in that time. Multiplied by 4, one for each attack, puts his chances at around a little over three percent.

I'm inclined to believe my math is messed up somewhere, but even if I artificially boost the guy's chances by arbitrarily tripling or quadrupling that number, I can't say I like the knight's odds. All predictions I can conceive of him leave him at far below a 20% chance of success.

I'd bet on the dragon.

>>382548816
>Deal 100 damage per 3 attacks
No he deals 220. (80-60)+(80-60)+(240-60)=20+20+180=220

Holy fuck this enriches my autism
Damage per turn=DPT

Knights DPT:
80 / 3 x 2 + 80 - 60
Additional "Crit" damage + base damage
(crit basicaly gives 2/3 x 80 extra DPT for every attack)
=73.33...

Dragon DPT:
(90 - 30) x 0.1
(non 1KO damage - armor) x accuracy
=6

Knight turns to kill the Dragon:
1500 / (80 / 3 x 2 + 80 - 60)
=~21 (20.4545...

Dragon turns to kill the Knight:
300 / ((90 - 30) x 0.1)
=50

Dragons 1 Hit KO Change:
0.1 x 0.25
=2.5%

Change of 1 Hit KO happening during 21 turns:
1 - 0.975^21
=41%

And this is the line where i notice i didn't answer the question

>>382549095
You took into account the defense after the crit, not the other way around.

>>382549196
The dragon does 120 damage, not 90.

>>382549564
He does 90 after you subtract the knights defense

>>382549390

Hmm. In which case, a typical three turn spread isn't 20-20-60, but 20-20-180, implying his output is 73.3 per round, and he needs to defeat the monster in 21 rounds, not 46.

Still, that means his odds of not being hit 4 times in 21 rounds is 44% rounding up, so the advantage is still to the dragon... but you're right, those are much better odds.

>>382546827
>25 percent instakil
ALL IN ON FURSHIT

>>382546827

the dragon needs 4 hit to kill the knight, however only 1 hit in 10 lands, so the dragon on average needs 40 hits however when you take account his instantkill that reduce it to 10

the knight needs 75 hits to kill the dragon, however when you take account that he deals triple damage every 3 attack, that reduce the amount of average hits needed to 21

so... the dragon?

>>382546827
Dragon of Chaos hits once per ten moves; in forty moves, he will OHKO the Brave Knight, who deals 20 points of damage per turn; times ten turns is 200, times four is 800, just over half the Chaos Dragon's health by the time his own time runs out; a third of damage will critical for ~60 instead of 20, or ~250 extra damage. So 20 x 6 = 120, plus 60 x 3 = 90, 210 per ten turns, times four is 840 in 40 turns. Which doesn't seem right. Unless it will take the Dragon of Chaos 4 x 4 turns to OHKO, which would mean 3360 over 160 turns. However even if OHKO didn't occur in 1 out of 10 turns, damage would, and at that rate Jordan Peterson is KO'd in 40 turns.

TL;DR: Chaos trumps Order. No gold nor virgins for anyone.

>>382546827
Fuck the dragon and win automatically.

>>382550503
>210 per ten turns
230, 920 in 40, 3780 in 160, final outcome remains the same.

>>382546827
Normally I pick the Knight, because Knights are badass, but this pussy ass """Knight""" doesn't even have a cape so fuck him. I'm going with the Dragon.

knight because he has heal items and continues

Here's my hastily put together copy pasted "simulator": https://pastebin.com/9g0jZD61
Assuming I didn't make any mistakes, all the typical psuedorandomness bullshit still applies.

Going first, the guy wins about 56% of the time.

>>382546827
Test it on your browser fags
https://pastebin.com/2E8rCPmf

>>382551401
>https://pastebin.com/2E8rCPmf
Shouldn't that last console.log be outside the for loop?

>>382551703
Maybe so, i just wanted to see it as it goes.

>>382551703
Also,
>war wins: 60012 - drag wins: 15790 - draws: 1320

>>382551785
Picture states they attack simultaneously so draws are possible

>>382546827
the knight
he knows how to use healing items

>>382551401
I only get ~75000 wins total even though there are 100000 trials
no idea why when looking at it

>>382546827
Dragon's instant-killing ability is too good. It trivializes the knight's otherwise great EHP.

>>382551941
Ahh, i forgot to do "<="

>>382551401
Fixed, because apparently I'm bad
https://pastebin.com/9bBtdcWR

>>382552314
Nice

>>382546827
Dragon wins. 1 in 40 chance to 1 hit ko. knight average damage is 33.3 recurring. Basically needs to hit 45 times to win. The dragons damage means also means that 4 successful attacks will kill the knight, regardless of the 1hko. So again on average the dragon only needs to make 40 attacks.

>>382547413
This

>>382552314
I'm retarded, how do I use that code?

>>382553224
Right click, inspect, goto console, copy paste that code, hit enter.
Then read the wins and losses and find out who wins.

>>382546827

I could actually do a simulation of this shit using Monte Carlo...

>>382552958

You made the same mistake I did. See
>>382549095
>>382549390
>>382549864

>>382546827
>90% chance to dodge
Surely he will win for his speed is superior

>>382552314

Now do 10000 trials, get the mean, and that's your answer

>>382553598
>Now do 10000 trials, get the mean, and that's your answer
It's doing 100000 battles, the output pretty much tells you the answer outright.

>>382553421
>Right click, inspect

Or press f12.

>>382553509
>I am retarded and can't into simple probability

>>382553767
He's not totally wrong

>>382547757
>Knight dodges 90% of the attacks

wow lad, now do your homework.

So can anyone tell me the formula for reoccurring probability of 75 rolls with 10% chance , and needing to hit 3 of them?
It's driving me insane.

>>382554087
Oh shit, I meant 4

>>382546827
what about the iron sight situation? who benefits most?

>>382554087
>So can anyone tell me the formula for reoccurring probability of 75 rolls with 10% chance , and needing to hit 3 of them?
1 - P(hitting 3 or less)
1 - P(0) - P(1) - P(2) - P(3)
1 - (0.9^75) - ((75C1)(0.1)(0.9^74)) - ...
Or you can use my js code.

>>382554479
Assuming I properly understand what you asked

>>382552314
>war wins: 83023 - drag wins: 15126 - draws: 1851

Wow, the little guy is rather powerful

>>382554479
Looks like that's it. Thanks!

>>382554087
If you need exactly 3 hits:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%2875+choose+3%29+*+0.1^3+*+0.9^%2872%29
If you need at least 3 hits:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=sum+from+k%3D3+to+75+of+%2875+choose+k%29+*+0.1^k+*+0.9^%2875-k%29

>>382546827
Knight dps is 73.3 a round.
Dragons dps is 6.75 a round with a 2.5% chance of instantly winning.
Knight wins in 20.5 rounds on average.
Dragon wins 1.5% of the time instantly in those 20 rounds.
Dragon wins at 44.4 rounds on average.
It's decidedly in favor of the knight since the dragon has to hit 4 times to kill him no matter what which means the instant death attack has a higher chance of killing him than his damage does.

File: 1445813121977.jpg (61KB, 472x874px) Image search: [Google]

61KB, 472x874px

>>382553509

>>382552314
wait, where in this is the OHKO ability?

>>382554076
Are you retarded?

>>382554862
lines 31 and 32

>>382552314
I can't read code for shit but a re you taking into account the 2.5% chance of instakill on every dragon attack?

>>382555129
>>382555007

>>382554719
Appreciate the answer.
Time to study these when I'm not so sleep deprived. Night anon.

Can I fuck the dragon?

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11KB, 1094x736px

The one hit seems to be pretty OP

>>382546827

you are mixing chance to hit with damage. How do you calculate damage? Also, if the dragon has 25% to insta kill that's a shitload advantage than 33% chance to triple damage.

Do you even math, OP?

>>382556540
Except the instakill is nigh useless due to what is required for it to activate and the fact that the Dragon would already kill in three hits.

>Knight Wins: 5511228 (55.11%)
>Dragon Wins: 4488772 (44.89%)
At least that's what I'm getting

>>382546827
both of them lose since they have negative HP.

>>382549864
Your math is way off. The probability of getting 4 hits in 21 rounds is 21! / (17! * 4!) * [(1/10)**4] * [(9/10)**17] = 10%

The Knight deals (80 - 60) damage two out of three turns, and (80 x 3 - 60) damage one out of three turns.
(80 x 2 - 60 x 2) + (80 x 3 - 60)
= (160 - 120) + (240 - 60)
= (40) + (180)
= 220 Damage every 3 Turns
220 / 3
= 73.3333333333 Damage per Turn on Average
1500 / 73.3333333333
= 20.4545454546
The Knight requires 20.4545454546 turns to defeat the Dragon.

The Dragon deals (120 - 30) damage every turn, and will hit on average 1 out of 10 turns.
(120 - 30)
= 90 damage every 10th turn
90 / 10
= 9 damage every turn
300 / 9
= 33.3333333333
The Dragon requires 33.3333333333 turns to defeat the Knight. As the Dragon would kill the Knight in 3 successful attacks, while his Insta-Kill would kill on average on 4 successful attacks.

The Knight will win on average.

File: IMG_3034.jpg (21KB, 166x526px) Image search: [Google]

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>all these morons putting in minutes of work and research with the false notion that "90% dodge chance" is the same as "1/10 attacks hit the knight".

>>382557657
>I'm an idiot who doesn't know how probability works the post

>>382556907
Those are my results too, not sure why js anon's knight wins so much.

File: untitled2.png (11KB, 1094x736px) Image search: [Google]

11KB, 1094x736px

>>382555830

>>382555830
>>382558332
Where the hell are your things coming from?

>>382557779

>if i have a 1/10 chance to win a scratch off it means every batch of ten scratch offs has 100% chance of one winner.

>>382558535
>he thinks that you only have a .5^2 chance of getting a head and tails in two coinflips

Both are equal. There is an infinite percent chance that one kills the other. Percentages are stupid and meaningless.

>>382558842
>I work at a Minimum Wage Job and dropped out of Elementary School the post

>>382558523
matlab
https://pastebin.com/EnMsFdiR
Pls no bully, I made it on the fly without much thought.

>>382558535
that's not how it works idiot
it's not an absolute rule, especially considering your small as fuck sample
doing that 1000 will more or less result in 100 wins, maybe 95, maybe 105
regardless of what you numbnuts say, probabilities ARE useful and are used in practical fields, such as economy

>>382559028
Line 40, you're also multiplying the defense by 3

File: untitled3.png (13KB, 1094x736px) Image search: [Google]

13KB, 1094x736px

>>382559347
>(still takes into account enemy def)
I think I misunderstood this

File: durgn.png (44KB, 742x1190px) Image search: [Google]

44KB, 742x1190px

who wins now

>>382559751
They both surrender to their desires and fuck each other.

Alright /v/. I flip 4 coins, what the chance that they are all heads?

File: 1498938456288.jpg (31KB, 457x469px) Image search: [Google]

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Dragon. The knight has to attack him 75 times to kill him (assuming he never procs his 3* atk) while the dragon only has to hit him 4 times. The first hit has a pretty good chance of insta-killing him too.

>>382559947
are they perfect evenly distributed?

>>382559947
1/24

>>382559947
50% chance.

>>382560067
Holy fucking shit are you retarded?
>>382559947
1/16

>>382559947
6.25%

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27KB, 500x275px

>>382546827
Knight needs around 75 hits to kill the beast with normal attacks ( 1500/ 20 )
Only needs 9 attacks if triggers the triple attack proc. ( 80 x 3 - 60 )
Assuming damage boost every third hit, the knights needs 21 hits to win.
The Dragon has two hits he can land with only a 25% chance to instant kill. This does not directly translate into a 50% chance to kill the knight.

The odds are in favor of the knight.

dragon because RNGesus hates me fuckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk

>>382560181
No, are you gay?

>>382560297
>No
Objectively wrong.
>Are you gay?
Objectively no, however you objectively are.

>>382560067
>he thinks a 1 in 4 chance that procs after a 1 in 10 chance is good
>he thinks that a 1 in 3 chance will never proc compared to a 1 in 4 chance that only occurs after a 1 in 10 chance
You're fucking retarded.

>>382549095
Assuming that you read the OP pic, you would have learned that damage and turns are both explained in it. Also you suck at math.

>>382549095
>>382549864
>i don't understand probability the post

File: untitled4.png (11KB, 1094x736px) Image search: [Google]

11KB, 1094x736px

>>382559583
Variance was too high desu
Increased number of loops to 1e5
Seems to have low variance now
Knight comes on top

>>382546827
dude tates 21 turns to kill dragon including the crits
dragon takes 19 turns to kill the dude assuming
insta attack = 330 hit

>>382561308
>assuming insta attack = 330 hit
nigger what

>>382561380
sorry was tipyng too fast
instakill attack is taken as if it were an attack with 330 power

>>382561308
where are you getting 19 turns?

File: 1498792950188.png (80KB, 499x689px) Image search: [Google]

80KB, 499x689px

So be it, knight wins.

This one is easier to calculate.

>>382563332
For the Kobold, every two strikes on average should deal 40 damage, as in two hits, one hit will ignore armor (Deal 30 damage) and one will not (Deal 10 damage)
1200 / 40 = 30
30 x 2 = 60
It takes 60 strikes for the Kobold on average to kill the Minotaur.

For the Minotaur, every 20th strike should hit (95 out of 100 = 9.5 out of 10 = 19 out of 20), and will be reduced to 90 Damage due to the Kobold's DEF.
200 / 90 = 2.22222222222
2.22222222222 x 20 = 44.4444444444
It takes the Minotaur 44.4444444444 strikes on average to kill the Kobold.

>>382563332
Wanna make bets and then I give my simulation?

>>382563531
Do it, kobold will win.

>>382563332
Based on that retarded dodge rate I can already tell you the green thing wins most of the time

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>>382559947
infinite chance they'll be heads infinite chance they'll be tails infinite chance they'll land on their side infinite chance they'll never land
Probability isn't a science nor is it a math, but guessing based on faith and estimation.
Scientific method cannot be applied to probability, and math can only be used to measure arbitrary information based upon likelihood.

>>382564626
And there's an infinite chance that you're a faggot

>>382564626
>Armchair scientific theorist tries to sound smart.jpg

>>382564710
From my point of view you are the faggot.

>>382564779
And from your point of view a penis is the only viable form of sustenance.

>>382564626
>when you're literally wrong

>>382564917
good one, chancellor.

>>382564917
Really got me with that 6th grade insult bro, I yield. How can I ever recover?

>>382565079
By taking 6th grade Math because it's evident you've learned nothing from it.
Alternatively, you could suck on a penis, which is probably what you wanted to do anyways.

>>382564981
After a certain amount of time when coins are tossed they no longer land due to a previous unforeseen physical phenomenon that is intrinsic with our entire universe causing objects the size of coins matching their similar dimensions to now evaporate when spun, causing the probability of it landing or stopping on heads or tails to be 0, when in fact this was always the case and due to coincidence everyone got lucky for the span of human civilization and never once had it occur.

You're the psychology of math.

>>382558535
>he thinks 90% chance to dodge means a hit will never happen

>>382565712
And you're the faggot of faggots.

>>382546827
I want to fuck the lizard

>>382546827
>Implying the dragon wont hit the First hit
>Implying It wont criteri intorno anche instakill

Do you even xcom?

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12KB, 1094x736px

>>382563895
Sorry, anon.
And I guess people don't feel like arguing if there's an actual anwser. I'll go play some vidya.
https://pastebin.com/vgSF5HGS

>>382563332
>Minotaur Wins: 580344 (58.03%)
>Kobold Wins: 419656 (41.97%)
Not quite what I expected

>>382567652
wait. 1200 i 200 for HP?

>>382568510
ok never mind different fighters.

>>382556859

Dragon has higher HP and a 1/4 chance to insta kill. That's a lot.

Put it into a battle simulator and set the instances to 1000.

Knight wins 750 of the 1000 battles, Dragon wins 250 of the 1000 battles.

Next thread.

>>382569470
And that 1/4 chance only procs after a 1/10 chance, that's insanely low.

>>382569603
It can't be that low for the dragon, what's your formulas?

File: truemath.png (127KB, 620x226px) Image search: [Google]

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does any of you know about Game Theory? Really, it sucks talking with people with highschool level of math. And no, knowing "muh calculus" doesn't mean you know math.

>>382569852
Why even bother talking about probabilities if you can just run millions of simulations?

>>382569828

I just used what the OP gave us, the only thing I didn't just plug in was the instakill chance since because the knight has 90% dodge chance the instakill rate is only 1/4th of the remaining 1 out of 10 hit chance.

>>382546827
They both fuck
The knight puts his dick in the dragon's boypussy

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216KB, 1700x2338px

>>382546827
funny thing is that if you inflate the knights HP to like 100000000 the expected value of dragons attack increases. and the amount of attacks required reaches 40. and what is probability of landing one hit KO? 1/40. so it means the fewer HPs knight has the dragon relies less on one hit KOs.

how does this thread turned from typical shitposting to create a statistical model about a knight fighting a dragon?

>>382563467
But can't you just say thet the minotaur needs more than to (3) attacks to kill the kobold, so 3*20=60? And they draw if the rng doesn' favor anyone?

>>382570852
He lured in stemfags by making the dragon a furry.