Who wins?

>>377452292
>5% chance to get hit
>Still get hit 3 times in a fucking row

fuck this rng bullshit game

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>>377452292
I'll put 100 on the Kobold

>>377452292
Is this a math problem in disguise? Anon stop asking others to do your homework.

Kobold because I'm feeling lucky

they both need 60 attacks on average

>>377452292
How does defense work in this game?

Well according to the math of the given numbers, it's even. Was that intentional?

There is rng on both sides, and a lot of other factors to consider, such as it being technically possible for the minotaur to never hit, while the kobold will always kill in a maximum of 120 attacks.

If the scenario is run an infinite number of times, however, the win ratio will be 1:1.

>>377452292

>Minotaur
>3 hits to kill opponent

>Kobold
>somewhere between 40 and 120 hits to kill opponent
>BUT THE MINO CAN STILL MISS EVEN IF THE KOBOLD DOESN'T SUCCESSFULLY DODGE

get fucked minotaur, im going for the kobold

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>>377452292
Kobold.

5% x 5% x 5% = 0.125% chance

DEX > STR

.05*x=3
x=60

1200/30=40

Even without factoring the 50AP the kobold will likely win every time.

Better question is which would you fuck?

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Sword A: 100 Damage, 100% Accuracy
Sword B: 102 Damage, 99% Accuracy

Which one would you equip?

when you watch them fight it's gonna be way more exciting to root for the guy who doesn't miss 95% of hits and doesn't have to pray for his life every time he's on the defense so my money is on kobold

>>377453623
100.98 > 100

this isnt even a question

>>377453472
you're forgetting the defense of the big guy

>>377453594
The kobold, of course.

>>377453334
that's assuming they all land in a row, the probability of him landing 3 hits before he dies is much higher

>>377453694
More accuracy. The less rng in my game the better. At least I know for sure I will hit for 100 and can plan accordingly. Unless enemy can still dodge then fuck it.

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>DEXfags actually believe this

>>377452292
assuming defense is just a flat reduction in attack they're actually evenly matched, both would need 60 turns on average to kill the other

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Statistically, the fight is completely even.

That being said, my money is on the big nigger because if he gets a lucky second hit immediately after another hit, he's going to win, whereas the manlet doesn't really care about luck.

>minotaur manages to grab kobold
>rapes him into submission

I'd like to see DEXfags swooce their way out of a solid grapple.

>>377452292
the kobold it obviously the weakest, lets say that defence was a straight atk reduction, resulting in only 10 damage a hit
let say the kobold is extraordinary lucky and hits all ignore defence chances, that's still 40 attack needed to kill the minotaur, where the minotaur only needs 3 hits to fuck the kobold.

Dexfags are the worst, thinking that letting the enemy have more chances to hit you is a smart idea

>>377454141
>uses RNG incorrectly
>thinks weapon with lower average damage is better
It all checks out.

>>377452292
The better player

>>377453594
the minotaur. I'd still pick the kobold over him in a fight though because I like Dex builds for some reason.

Can I just have them both fuck?

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minotaur. itd be pretty equal without def factoring in, but 50% chance to ignore def isnt enough to take away kobolds huge disadvantage

ignoring defense, it would be
>kobold has 1/40 chance of being killed
>minotaur dies in 40 hits
then defense makes it so that minotaur has to be hit 120 times, except for the 50% ignore defense perk, and kobold only has to be hit 3 times

so it ends up being
>kobold 1/60 chance of being killed
>minotaur 1/80 chance

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I use diplomacy to recruit both of them and form a party

>>377452292
Orc needs to hit 3 times, Kobold needs to hit around ~60. But factor in the dodge rate and Orc also needs to attack around 60 times.

Since we don't have attack speeds, it's a gamble.

>>377457115
99% chance to hit implies an RNG diceroll of d100

>>377453094
Attack is subtracted by the defense then the difference is dealt to health

>>377452292
Can't solve it without the defense function for reduce hp damage

I'm >>377457549

i fucked up the numbers, idk how many hits the minotaur takes to kill. ill take your guys word for it that its also 60

>>377454547
*rolls Acrobatics*
*sneak attacks behind you*

Heh... To slow kid

It's 50/50.

>>377453594
>Not getting fucked by the Minotaur while fucking the Kobold

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Dexfags btfo, minotaur doesn't even need his hammer to win

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>>377452292
I want shortstack porn of that kobold

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>>377459136
Continue

>>377458945

that better be a boy kobold so it's humiliation instead of an undeserved reward

Kobold if the game isn't X-COM.

>>377453623
What kind of enemy are you facing? would any of them die with fewer hits with the 102 damage?

>>377452292
WHAT ARE SOME GAMES WHERE I CAN PLAY AS A KOBOLD?

>>377459136
now fuck it and make a superior str/dex fags to battle the constitution fags

>>377453694

the highest enemy hp in the game is 89

>>377452292
it takes the minotaur on average 60 swings to kill the kobold

it takes the kobold on average 60 swings to kill the minotaur

they are equally matched.

>>377452292
Probability fags are a cancer.
95% chance doesn't mean he will dodge 95% of the time. In fact he could dodge 100% of the time or 0% of the time.
All outcomes rely on 0 and 1, likelihood is an illusion.

>>377460114
No, because the minotaur has 20 def, which means the kobold will only deal 10 damage per swing, needing an average of 120 swings to kill the minotaur.

>>377452292
I want to fuck that kobold ;3c

>>377460415
You didn't count the ignore defense perk.

Why do you even bother posting?

>>377452292
little guy if i'm playing as the little guy, big guy if i'm playing as the big guy

>>377460628
I stand corrected. They are evenly matched BUT as a gambler, I'd bet on the minotaur, because he could get 3 lucky swings in.

>>377460114

Done and dusted.
>>377460381

faggot

Where do you guys are getting that the Minotaur needs 60 hits to kill the Kobold? I'm getting 45.
(100atk-10def)*(1-0.95) = 4.5 atk on average per hit.
200hp/4.5 = 44.4 ≈ 45 hits. Where am I fucking up?

>>377462152
He needs 3 hits, that is to say 270 HP with your calcs. Goblin has 200 HP so he won't die in 2 hits

>>377459456
>tfw I'll never be a smol monster boy who tries to make money by ransoming a princess, only to be reduced to a cumdump for the knight rescuing her

>>377452292
>kobold gets 2 special stats with a really bullshit rate
>95% dodge
>50% to ignore def
>minotaur doesn't even gets damage reflection
fuck off dexfags

>>377453623
You miss 1 hit in 100. 99 x 2 = 101. One missed hit means you miss 100 damage. So statistically you will do 1 more damage with Sword B over time.

>>377452292
Why can't they be friends???

>>377463569
>Why can't they be friends???
or perhaps, lovers?

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>>377459136

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>>377463873
Activate it

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>>377463873
fucking hell

>>377460381
Wow you are fucking retarded. Kill you'reself.

>>377452292
>That dodge percentage

I'm very unluck, so I will go with the "minotaur"

>>377452292
if this is turn based and doesn't have a speed stat then it's the big guy for sure

>>377463873
I expected this to happen earlier

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>>377463873
keep going

>>377453594
Minotaur.
I want that fat bull cock to fuck me hard and deep.

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>>377463873

>>377452292
3 hits at 5% chance

Big dude needs 60 swings (on average) to kill little dude.

Little dude swings for 20 damage on average, needing 60 swings to kill big dude.

This looks like a balanced game to me.

It'd be extremely frustrating to play as the big dude without a way to counter evasion.
It'd be extremely frustrating to die in 3 hits as the little dude.

>>377453623
Which one looks the coolest?

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>Characters are slightly cute looking
>Thread just wants to see them fuck

Classic /v/

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>>377463873
MY DICK

>>377453623
I like being sure that I'm going to actually hit my enemy when I attack, so probably sword A.

>>377464808
At some point in history /v/ was gay bombed.

>>377464808
>slightly cute looking
they just need to be characters at this point desu

>>377463873
That's not even that good looking of a cock.

I mean come on, it would be much bigger than that.

>>377464895
All the straight and non-mentally ill men got jobs and wives then had kids and stopped posting entirely.

>>377463873
Took longer than I thought, but worth

>>377463873
How long till he sticks it in

Someone post that pic of the big guy then the small guy says ''my speed is superior''

>>377463873
>minotaur tries to fuck kobold
>has a 95% chance to miss

God dammit.

>>377464895
>gay bombed
what does that have to do with OP?

>>377452292
Minotaur side is easier to calculate. He needs 3 hits to kill and has a 5% chance of hitting. The odds of it taking N strikes to kill are (.05)^3 * (.95)^N-3 * (N choose 3). Add up multiple iterations to get cumulative odds. I'd do the kobold too but it's slightly more complicated and I'm a filthy phone poster.

>>377454434
What am I missing?

0.5*10 + 0.5*30 = 20 atk => 1200/20 = 60

0.05 * 90 = 4.5 atk => 200/4.5 = 44.444

>>377465576
90*2=180
90*3=270
Kobold has 200, so you need 3 hits.

Chance to hit 0.05% or 1/20. 20*3 = 60.

>>377452292
Green has to hit between 40 and 120 times to win.

Bull just has to hit him 3x.

5% is 1/20. I'll go with Bull.

>>377452292
To simplify I'm assuming green dude is ignoring 50% armour 100% of the time

30atk vs 10 def = 20 dmg each hit
1200hp/20dmg = 60 hits
assuming 1 hit per second
>green dude ttk big dude: 60s

Big dude 100atk vs 10 def = 90 dmg per hit
takes 3 hits to kill little dude
assuming 1 attack/second

What is the chance that the big dude will land 3 hits out of 60?

Calculate chance to land no hits:
0.95^60 = 0.046
This means the chance that at least 1 attack will land is 0.95

To land 3 hits:
0.95^3 = 0.87

Big dude wins 87% of encounters
little dude wins 13%

>>377457801
that is the gayest fucking way to do it.

>>377454234
Kobold needs 80 average.

Between 40 and 120 hits.

Minotaur needs 60 average. Minotaur has better odds.

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>>377466392
Holy shit I suck at probability, anyone can recommend a good book with solutions to self-study this shit?

>>377466680
the above calculation is self-taught to optimize my mmorpg equipment and rotations

>>377452292
I'm feeling lucky ..going for the kobold

>>377466392
Hang on, is the math for landing a hit really 0.95^3?

>>377467054
no, it's the math to land at least 3 hits

could be more, but green dude is dead after third hit

>>377460628
So even if it procs on literally hit with the Kobold dodging every swing somehow, it'd still take 40 hits.

>>377467054
Correction, to land 3 hits.

>>377452292
>>377465426
It will take the kobold 40 to 120 hits to kill the Minotaur. Assuming a is the piercing hit, 30a+10b = 1200, 3a+b=120, b=120-3a, a=40-b/3, N = a+b. The odds of killing in N hits are (.50)^(60-N/2) * (.50)^(3/2 N - 60) * (N choose 60-N/2). Add up individual odds to get cumulative. Obviously N<40 and N>120 are nonsensical.

>>377467054
Doubt it. With these calcs it would mean green dude has a 5 % chance to hit all 60 hits
0.95^60=0,05 or so

>>377452292
Can someone just write a program for these things so we can have a definitive answer?

>>377467128
But that's not quite right.

No hit probability is 0.95^60 = 0.046

Chance that ONE hit will land is 0.95^59*0.05*60=0.145

Chance that TWO hits will land are 0.95^58*0.05^2*870=0.111

It's not as high as .87 chance.(Assuming 870 is the right calculation for the third bit there).

>>377467649
>With these calcs it would mean green dude has a 5 % chance to hit all 60 hits
no, it's a 5% chance for green dude to not get hit at all

1st strike chance to not be hit:
0.95
2nd strike to not be hit
0.95*0.95 = 0.95^2
3rd strike to not be hit
0.95*0.95*0.95 = 0.95^3
.
.
.
60th strike chance to not be hit
0.95^60 which is about 0.05

>>377459456
its a reward either way ;)

>>377467838
>Chance that ONE hit will land is 0.95^59*0.05*60=0.145
>Chance that TWO hits will land are 0.95^58*0.05^2*870=0.111
That is correct, however you calculated the odds of EXACTLY 1 hit happening and of EXACTLY 2 hits happening

however, we don't care about overkill. My calculation includes all possible scenarios in which at least 1 hit happens, which is 1-(0.95^60) = 0.046

>>377464895
That moment was 2003 when 4chan started

>>377465087
>straight
>non-mentally ill
Pick one.

>>377452292
Literally everyone in this thread is retarded because they don't ask one question the OP pic failed to mention
HOW FAST DOES EACH ONE HIT
>minotaur swings once a minute
>lizard/kobold thing stabs once a second
OR
>minotaur swings every 5 seconds
>kobold stabs every 2 seconds

These situations completely change the result

>>377468263
We're talking two different things here, my fault, I meant that it seems incorrect to say that there's a .87 chance that 3 hits will land.

If we add my numbers up, we get about 30%. So 30% of scenarios don't have 3 hits land. Which isn't right with the idea that there's an 87% chance of victory for the big guy.

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>>377459083
That actually sounds really hot what the fuck

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>>377465275

>>377466384
>>377466653
>>377467329

Alright, you guys seem to know your shit so try to correct me on this one. I say that the kobold and minotaur are even because:

Minotaur kills kobold in 60 hits average (1 successful hit every 20 attacks)

Kobold deals 30 damage in one of two attacks (50%) and 10 damage in one of two attacks (50%), so for every two attacks the kobold deals 40 damage on average. This means an average of 20 damage per attack

1200 hp / 20 damage = 60 hits

Which means that they both need 60 hits on average to kill each other

>>377468716
ur gay lmao

>>377468608
actually, your numbers are wrong

there is no reason to multiply the chance by 60 at the end

the chance to land exactly one hit are (0.95^59)*0.05 = 0.00242
chance to land 2 hits are

(0.95^58)*0.05^2 = 1.28e-4

>>377468579
Any situation in which the kobold swings faster places him above the minotaur, since they're evenly matched as-is.

>>377468871
And you're going to add those up and tell me they equal to 100%?

>>377452292

Honestly, all I think is

I'd love to have a bunch of people bet on this and watch the simulation play out

Bet it'd be a nail-biter

Everyone says average is 60 turns, I'd like to see it go ~55 or so

Evenly matched, I'll pick the Kobold and recruit him into my party in case we ever run into some fucker with obscenely high defense.

>>377452292
Minotaur: .05*90=4.5 DPR
200/4.5 = 44.4... rounds to kill
Kobold: 30-10=20 DPR
1200/20=60 rounds to kill

I wonder.

>>377469017
>bet it'd be a nail-biter
It'd be a dodge-tank versus a regular tank, the slowest battle in existence.

>>377469323
>Kobold: 30-10=20 DPR
>1200/20=60 rounds to kill
How does someone fuck up this badly and still arrive at roughly the right answer?

>>377469487
I didn't fuck up at all you goddamn idiot, he ignores the minotaur's 20 defense half of the time. That's effectively a defense of 10.

>>377468984
no, it's just the chance to hit at least once

chance to be hit at least once + chance to not be hit = 100%

>>377467692
Its like a 4th grade math problem.

The only thing tripping people up is probability, for which you can pull the average scenarios where both take 60 swings to kill the other.

Edge cases are...
if kobold gets no procs, he will eventually kill minotaur
minotaur can theoretically miss every attack, but this is rare

Kobold kills minotaur 95%~ of the time within 55-65 attacks.

Now, assume minotaur landed his first two hits within the first 40 rolls. He now still has that 5% (1/20) chance to finish the game on any attack.

.95^20 = .36~ this is his chance to miss all 20 attacks in a row.

Meaning the minotaur has a 64%~ chance to kill the kobold by turn 60.
We assumed the minotaur had hit 2 attacks previously (average rng), which is why this number is higher than 50%. In reality, minotaur has that same 36% chance to completely miss any series of 20 consecutive attacks, including the first 40.
In 13% of encounters, the minotaur still hasn't landed a single attack by swing 40.

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>>377452292

>>377469608
No hits
>0.046
Exactly one hit
>0.00242
Exactly Two hits
>1.28e-4
3 hits or more
>0.87

Or am I missing a scenario not covered above?

>>377469487
>>377469323
Except he doesn't realize how health works. 1 health is effectively NOT DEAD. The minotaur is not swinging for 4.5 damages, he's either swinging for 90 or 0.

>>377469343
It'd be hilarious though, when the kobold just keeps slashing over and over again, and suddenly the Minotaur stomps all over him.

>>377470084
You don't understand how DPR works

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>>377470020

>>377470509
Can someone shop this so that they are fucking

>>377452292
the only thing that matters in a fight is height and maybe weight, everything else is meme shit.

>>377470245
You need to kill yourself.

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>switches to main weapon

What now dexfags?

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>>377470509

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Use this you retards.

>>377470834
>manlets will fume with anger
>mma shitters will go nuclear

All that MMA you wasted your time learning will surely help you when you're getting out reached by a giant

>>377471169
You need to actually understand how DPR works first. Do you think that the average damage dealt per swing doesn't matter?

>>377452292
I want to fuck both and I want both to fuck me

>>377471313
You need to kill yourself you dense fuck.

It matters for the first two hits, which deal 180 total. Now you need to make a 3rd rng check against kobold's evasion to deal 90 damage. it doesn't matter that 70 damage is overkill.

You dense FUCK.

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Okay faggots, Mathfag here.

first, you where all wrong, as usual.

second, the minotaur wins.

third, the minotaur wins... by a very slim margin.

Consider the random variable X = "number of hits to kill the minotaur", Y = "number of hits to kill the kobold".

The expected number of hits the kobold needs to do to kill the Minotaur is 60.250. You can solve by using a binomial distribution with some tweaks (I can post my sheet of paper if anyone wants to see it)

The expected number of hits the Minotaur needs to kill the doggie motherfucker is a little bit easier (it is just the sum of a bunch of binomial terms) is... 60 (the series converges to 59.9999999999999...)

Funny thing is the retards that said 50/50 are closer to the right answer than anyone else... Good job tards.

STR>DEX

>>377471606
This could be right since none of us considered that kobold procs are RNG as well. Dealing 10 or 30 means that the kobold can overkill by up to 20 damage (or underkill by 10, requiring an extra turn)

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>>377471173

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>>377472145

>>377452292
Kobold

>>377452292
Bad question, when you introduce chance the question should be who wins the most?

There's a chance left can kill right in 3 consecutive turns but that is just one outcome.

>>377452292
Chances are even Steven

In an ideal scenario
If the minataour needs to cause 200 DMG to kill him, which accounting for dodge chance and defence will come out requiring 60 hits.

Kobolt will have till 60 to finish him if his 30 hits ignore defence it'll cause 900dmg, his remaining will cause 300 DMG.

So chances are even. That said kobold will probably win because of his higher attack rate.

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>>377472145

Upload failed.

>>377452435
my life

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>>377453594
Minotaur. I want to be breed by bull man.Mpreg is my fetish

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>>377473838

>>377471173
>>377472145
what is that rolf

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>>377458945
defeated as all kobold should

>>377475728
A minotaur with a giant hammer and a microscopic kobold