movies like this?

>>86784365
I think the goat is in door #2

>>86784365
You mean a movie that makes literally no sense?

The Prestige

>>86784365

Everything about this problem is contrived and stupid.

>>86785254
Then let me make it simple.

If 1 in 3 is right, you have a 2/3 chance of being wrong. Then another wrong choice is revealed. Staying is betting on the 1/3 chance you were right initially. Switching is betting on the 2/3 chance you were wrong initially.

>>86784365
Men who stare at goats

>>86785399
It's easier when you think of it like this.

>You have 10 doors to pick
>They open 8 of the doors showing goats.
>Do you switch or do you really believe you correctly guessed 1 out of 10?

>>86784365
Are people literally so retarded they can't understand simple math behind this shit?

>>86786317
still doesn't change the odds, your guess doesn't effect the outcome

>>86786728
Your first guess has a higher chance of being wrong than switching.

>>86786381
Trump was elected president.
So yes.

>>86786381
You have the same chance of being right either way you fucking cuck

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>>86784365

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>>86786948

I have ten cards upside down.
You have to find the Queen.
You pick one at random.
Before unveiling it, I turn all cards except the Queen.
"Do you want to change?"

>>86786972
t. Literal retard who doesn't understand even concept as simple as probability

>>86786988
Here they come

>>86787001
Motherfucker you fucking know that I found it first try don't play no fucking mind games with me

>>86786988
Nice 88, nazi scum.

>>86786972
Read a book, nigger. Preferably one about probability.

Just kidding. This should be enough. You're welcome.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

>>86787001
There's only 2 cards left so it's a 50 50 chance. The card I picked is either the Queen or it isn't. 50%

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>>86787078

>>86786988
>>86787056
IT WAS HER TURN REEEEE

>>86787050
You can't be this dumb.

You have a 33% of getting it right the first time. If you pick between two (knowing that one of them is the right one), you have a 50% now.

>>86787078
That would be right if you had to choose betwen those two cards from the beginning, but that was not the case. You picked one out of ten (1/10 = 10%), while the card that's still uncovered and you didn't pick has a 50% of being the Queen.

If you had picked other card, the card that you chose originally would be flipped (if it wasn't the Queen, which is the most probable (90%) outcome).

>>86787078
Are you trolling? I hope you're trolling
You have a 9/10 chance to NOT pick the queen
If you DON'T pick the queen, you win if you switch

>>86787150
I'm not a Hillary shill, but anyone, and I mean ANYONE would be better than Trump.

People who "don't get it" ITT are just roleplaying, r-right?

>>86786988
lol

>>86787228
You overestimate this board

>>86787182
You don't understand the Monty Hall solution.
>>86787223
go away shillaryshit

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>>86787194
>>86787182
>>86787144
It's okay guys I was just joking.

In the Monty Hall problem, is the first door that Monty opens random, or does he intentionally open a door that has a goat behind it?

>>86787228
Yeah it's like when /tv/ pretends to not understand TDKR dialogue or Simpsons sign gags. Or that normie meme where you pretend to see black and blue instead of white and gold.

>>86787334
>anime reaction image
>not retarded
Choose one (oдин)

>>86787223
Anyone but Hillary lmao

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>>86787375
>pretend to see black and blue instead of white and gold
that's not true and you know it

>>86787352
Intentional. The game show host knows what's behind every door.

>>86787324
I'm an aeronautical engineer, you /pol/tard.

I don't take lessons from people who can't even see reality straight in the eye.

How many people were at Trump's inauguration again?
KEK

Grapes have a thicker skin that your incompetent racist grandpa of a president.

>>86785399

It is simple, dipshit.

The problem is people treat it like a mathematical anomaly when it can just be explained as

>You have 2/3 chance of being wrong
>Therefore if you flip the scenario so the wrong choice is actually a winner, you win

The entire premise of the problem relies on the revealed goat and the opportunity to switch. Shit that would never happen.

>>86787423
Oh shit I never got that part before, that makes the whole thing click for me

>>86787396
>Pick between someone competent you detest or someone incompetent you can identify with despite the huge wealth gap because you both hate minorities.
It's a no brainer. Too bad the choice was too much for you.

>>86787432
man the trump election really fucked you up

>>86787452
Yeah, that's the whole point. Now I understand someone didn't get it yet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
To people "roleplaying" not to understand the problem, just read this.

>>86787495
It didn't, because I'm from Europe. The only effect I perceive is a huge boost in the quality of late night shows.

Colbert, Trevor, Seth, Oliver, Samantha... They all have the best comedy writer: Pussygrabber in chief.

Enjoy your """winning""" while it lasts, lad.

>>86787435
>would never happen

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Make_a_Deal

Its called the "monty hall" problem for a reason.

>>86787555
>from europe
>obsessed with america
seems about right

>>86785399
>>86786317
it's the easiest when you think about it like this:
let's say you pick door number 1 every time, then there are three situations with 1/3 chance of being correct:
1) the goat is in door 1, not switching gets you the goat
2) the goat is in door 2, switching gets you the goat
3) the goat is in door 3, switching gets you the goat

so you see that there are two situations where switching gets you the goat, which is 2/3 (1/3 + 1/3) chance compared to just 1/3 chance.

>>86786982
what if the the five people are my family?

>>86787223
Fuck off you libtard shill

>>86787625
>Guys, a dude two blocks away has heavy machineguns ands is fucking nuts.
>"Whatever, fag."
Kek

I'm interested in international policy. I can't really blame a /pol/tard for having such a provincial and self-centered worldview.

>>86787716
That's not how it works, minority faggot. You fuck off to your containment board.

>>86787056
(((Wikipedia)))
Not an argument

>>86787632
>it's simple when you make it more complicated

Just think in terms of "odds of losing." Its the switching back and forth between losing and winning that throws people and makes it look like some sort of paradoxical anomaly.

You have a 2/3 chance of losing. A door that is wrong is opened. The remaining door has a 1/3 chance of being wrong.

>>86787752
I didn't make it more complicated, just more lengthy.

>>86787748
(((Being retarded)))
(((The juice)))

Has /pol/ retardation know any limits?
Does the link I provided explain the problem wrong or are you just mentally damaged beyond repair?

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>>86787384
>complaining about an anime reaction image on an Indonesian basket weaving board

>>86787839
>Falling for (((bait)))

>>86787880
>Being able to distinguish /pol/'s stupidity from bait.
>Being a terrenal being.
Pick one.

>>86787632
so... I win if i get the goat?

>>86787839
Try again shill. This time with a source that is not Jewish-biased and liberal-biased. What's that? You can't? How (((convenient)))

>>86788017
I can't, because I don't think Alex Jones can explain a basic probability problem. Because, you know, he's marginally smarter than the average trump supporter. Just smart enough to scam faggots like you into buying overpriced shit that has been certified by chiropractors.

How does it feel to know that your life's only value is purely comedic?

>>86787739
Trump has you literally crying yourself to sleep every night doesn't he? go and re-read the tune in your posts, its bitter, angry, resentful, man your blood pressure must be through the roof anon

>>86788149
I literally laugh at it from Monday to Friday, anon. You're projecting too much. Maybe you're the frustrated bitter fag, since despite controlling Senate, Congress and White House, your tiny little man has nothing to show for it.

Bad president, but a nice jester. I wish you enjoyed it as much as I do.

>>86788149
>Weeks since the WH had a scandal or the president a Twitter meltdown: 0
This shit gets tiresome.

How would the game change if the host showed the door that you chose, and it was a goat? Would it still be in your best interest to switch?

>>86788354
Shit, I mean, would it then be a 50/50 to switch?

>>86788354
No, because once you're shown the door you've picked, you know what to pick.

If it's a goat, you pick other door. If it's not, just stay with your door.

There's only one goat.

>>86784365
Here's how I explain it to myself that finally made sense:
After the goat door is shown, ask yourself, "what's more likely that I picked in the first place: one of the two goats or the one car?" You likely chose a goat in the first place, because it was 2/3, so switch.

>>86788587
For fuck's sake, guys. It's just probability.

Success Cases/Total Cases

Apply that to each situation.

>>86788003
yes

>>86788220
>>86788309
Hillary lost, get over it, it's been almost a year now sheeh

>>86789505
>Someone gets elected
>Acts in a disagreeable way.
>"I disagree with this president"
>"Guuuuuys, get over itttt!"
That's not how society works, /pol/tard.