Are there any films that deals with this concept?

Breakfast at Tiffany's

IT'S COMPLETELY RANDOM CHANCE

IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOU DO

>>84091012
There's a movie where Kevin Spacey plays a professor and asks his students about it.

>>84091012
Reminder that this problem doesn't exist in reality, only in mathematics. In reality changing your door doesn't matter a whit. >>84091041

>>84091041
t. retard

>>84091135
How does it matter? Mathematics don't describe reality.

>>84091041
>>84091096
wew

>>84091096
No shit it doesn't alter the nature of reality, it just increases your probability of picking the correct one from your perspective.

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haha is that a GOAT standing behind an open DOOR? Just look at him! Look at that confused GOAT! Ha HA!

>>84091041
Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead

From what I read the premise is faulty because it's the opposite of how a gameshow would do it

>>84091012
What is this concept? Fucking goats?

>>84091041

This.

It's a pretty shitty concept. Your chances are the same.

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>>84091041
Incorrect

>>84091394
specifically goats opening doors
any suggestions?

>>84091096
>>84091041
Yeah when do math ever have anything to do with reality.

>>84091458
Are we talking about switching your pick if you miss?

Because it does increase your chances if you switch.

>>84091012
It's a 50/50 chance. Either you guess right or you guess wrong; two outcomes. 1/2 = 50%

>>84091527
Numbers aren't ultimately real/absolute, they are human concepts.

>>84091603
So are you.

Is this /lit/ or /sci/ I can't tell the difference anymore

>>84091640
>>>84091603
>So are you.


Wooooahhh

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>>84091041

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Sliding Doors

>>84091640
A human can know ultimate reality, though. I bring you this message from a position of such knowledge.

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>>84091012
How about we take 1 step further?

>>84091547
t. Marlboro

>>84091012

didn't they do this on mythbusters and statistically prove that changing doors in a real scenario was the better choice?

>>84091547
This.

>>84091731
I pull the lever and hope it goes to track A so I can see more bodies explode.

>>84091776
>statistically prove

gbt reddit

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>>84091731

>>84091731
>superposition
Pardon?

>>84091675

Nice sample size.

>>84091603
>>84091640
Wrong. While it is true, that you could argue everything is ultimately a fabrication of our consciousness comprehending out surroundings so we can navigate it, numbers, more specifically math, are explicitly human inventions.

>>84091820
>people riding a trolley with an unfinished track
I would shoot the fuck that sold that ticket

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Threadly reminder that anyone who seriously believes that the odds are 50/50 regardless of switching is mathematically, unequivocally, irrevocably wrong.

>>84091910
This is bullshit.

>>84091731
>let out wave function fart
>teleports behind train
>pssh nothing personnel

>>84091946

>personnel

retard

>>84091731

pulling the lever is interfering with a situation you don't want any part of. Even if you save the group, you still directly killed one, and some one's going to be mad at you.

Just keep on fucking whistling and watch the carnage unfold in the corner of your eye.

china style

>>84091547
This. Same with the lottery. 50/50 chance. You either win or you don't.

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>>84091840
you cheeky motherfuck I'm going to kill you

>>84091986
>that spacing
reddit

>>84091934
Its not bullshit.
You have a 66% chance of starting with a goat. monty always revealing a goat does not change that. If you start with a goat you should switch.

>>84091934

Search your feelings, you know it to be true.

lets make a deal

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>>84091986
Your website is showing, friend

>>84091995
kek

>>84091995
I don't get it, where's the goat?

>>84091235
Damn you're fucking good!

Exam
Circle
The Cube

>>84091012
Do brainlets seriously not realize the people who pretend not to get this are fucking with them? It's literally the same as misusing your to spot newfags.

>>84092051
You have a 50% chance of starting with a goat. Either there's a goat behind the door or there isn't. Same will the other doors. This probability thing is bullshit and doesn't describe reality. The 50/50 odds are accurate and correct, not only in this situation but every situation involving an choice and outcome. Either the thing will happen or it won't, either you win or you don't. The end.

>>84092189
*you're

>>84091808
you can totally prove it. make an experiment. instead of three doors, take a dice. sides 1 and 2 are door 1, roll 3 or 4 and it's door 2, 5 or 6 is door three (you can also use a random number generator online instead). see if your odds improve if you switch every time. i'll do it to save you the time. random numbers are 1,2,1,2,3,1,3,3,2,3,1 (the door behind which is the treasure)

so now i randomly pick a door (randomized via a number generator or a dice roll) here's the result... 2 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 3.

now, if i don't switch, i guessed correctly 0 times. yikes.

but, if i do switch, the only way you can mess up is if you guessed correctly- interestingly enough. so in the example, none of the times was the door i chose the one with the fabulous prize. so i'm asked if i want to switch (as in example 1) where the goat is behind door 1 and i choose door 2. i'm shown that there is nothing in door three. by switching, i get to land on the lucky prize. now, doing this for every example, you'll surely see how it's better to switch.

tldr... switch. try the experiment yourself with dice or a random number generator
>
>
>
what

people who can't wrap their head around this shit should literally just be memed

>>84091041
you can literally test this out yourself

http://www.stayorswitch.com/

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Here's the explanation.

>>84092241

Mathematically incorrect.

Please reference:
>>84091910

>>84092241

Wrong. There is a reason why he didn't pick the same door as you did. That is big a clue.

>>84092333
I already called that post bullshit and explained how math doesn't describe reality accurately. Maybe it's mathematically incorrect but that doesn't matter, it's correct absolutely.

>>84091882
Well, that would break the NAP.

>>84092442
NAP is only with the snake though

bakemonogatari

>>84092519
>

>>84092407
you have 2/3 chances of selecting the wrong door.
host opens one wrong door.
that means there is one wrong door and and one prize door present.
if you selected the wrong door in the beggining (for which you had 2/3 chances), switching the door means you now selected the prize door

there, explained for massive idiots, hope you get it now

I just don't get it

>>84092333
>>84092387

If there's always two goats, and he's always going to reveal at least one, then your initial pick is fucking pointless. It will always come down to two doors. You know with 100% certainty, no matter what, one goat will be revealed, because that's how the game works. Whoring probability of your initial pick doesn't change the fact that the only choice you make that matters is between two doors, which is a strict 50/50 no matter how you slice it.

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50/50 nigger BTFO

>>84092616
>>84092646
see
>>84092594

>>84092594
You have a 50% chance of selecting the right door. Either you win or you don't. Logically, philosophically this is correct. For some reason people like to turn this into some sort of mathematical probability game, which says more about their psychology than it does this "problem." Human race for you.

I wrote a Python program a while ago for someone who didn't believe this. It's 1/3 by sticking and 2/3 by staying. If you think it's 50/50 you're stupid

>>84092713
>It's 1/3 by sticking and 2/3 by staying.
Wanna try that again?

>>84092616
Just imagine it with 1000 doors. You pick one and the host opens 998 doors that reveal a goat. More than likely you picked a goat and the other door has a car.
If the doors were opened completely randomly and happened to reveal goats, then in that instance it would be 50/50.

>>84092702
>50% chance of selecting the right door.
do you have a 50% chance of rolling a 6?

>>84092687

Again, your first selection is pointless because you know with absolute certainty that one wrong door will be eliminated regardless of your choice.

Just because MUH STATISTICS says it's 66% isn't a substitute for actual human interaction, thought, and weighing risks.

>>84092646
>>84092702

You still don't get it. Your probability changes because you are given new information. The situation is no longer random. You have new info to navigate and make an informed choice.

>>84091012

the matrix reloaded

>>84092787
Yes. Either you roll a six or you don't.

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>>84092744
fugg

>>84092702
yeah, just like you have 50% chance of winning when you play the roulette, or lottery. you also either win or don't. no idea why people keep on bringing those bullshit propability shit there

>>84092819
>Your probability changes because you are given new information.

It's not new information.

You already know no matter what you pick one door will be eliminated. That's not new info you suddenly gain. It's the basis of the entire fucking scenario.

>>84091041
t. brainlet

>>84092776
Ooooh

So basically you are betting that your first choice was wrong because there's a higher chance of it being wrong than otherwise, so switching afterwards is the right choice

>>84092922
yes

>it's a 50% no matter what

in that case, there's a 50% chance a meteor is going to land directly on your fat dumb head tomorrow, it either will or it won't happen. Try living with that anxiety hanging over you.

I dont know man. I have a physics degree with a minor in both comp sci and math and I literally cannot comprehend the Monty Hall solution

>>84091840
I once made a program to run this 100,000,000 times each way and it holds

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>>84092292

>>84093124

nice sample size

>>84093077
This problem is literally explained in my first year comp sci math book, what third world shit hole school did graduate from?

>>84093124

Because you're basically asking the program what are the odds of getting a goat with zero context.

You already know it's going to come down to only two doors. Whatever you pick is irrelevant because it will always come down to a single coin flip of car or no car.

>>84092899
You do learn new information when the a door is opened.

>You pick door A, have a 1/3 chance of being right
>You know there is a 2/3 chance of the prize being behind either door B or door C (1/3 + 1/3)
>Door C opens
>You now know there's no chance of the prize being behind door C
>There is still a 2/3 chance of the prize being behind either door B or door C
>2/3 = 0 + Probability of door B being right
>Probability of prize being behind door B being correct is thus 2/3
>2/3 chance of being right by swapping, 1/3 by staying

>>84093229
Just because you see the solution doesn't mean you understand it you neanderthalic shit burger

>>84093317
But I do understand it, if you pick a door and stay with it you get whatever is behind your door, if you pick a door and change you get the opposite of whatever is behind it. It's that simple

>>84093077
There are only 3 possible scenarios. The car in this example will be behind Door 1 for demonstration purposes.

Scenario A
>pick Door 1
>Door 3 is revealed to have a goat
>staying on 1 wins you car
>switching to 2 wins you goat

Scenario B
>pick Door 2
>Door 3 is revealed to have a goat
>staying on 2 wins you goat
>switching to 1 wins you car

Scenario C
>pick Door 3
>Door 2 is revealed to have a goat
>staying on 3 wins you goat
>switching to 1 wins you car

As you can see, in 2 out of 3 scenarios you can win the car if you switch, whereas only in 1 out of 3 scenarios you can win the car if you stay. Probability yo.

the monty hall problem is just another bullshit scientists want us to believe in like round earth, or fish

I wont fucking believe it

>>84093300

You can put numbers and letters in there but every Monty Hall problem plays out the exact same way

>Pick any door
>Any remaining door that doesn't have a car is picked
>DUDE SWITCH LMAO

You know from the very beginning that one door will be eliminated no matter what. The first choice doesn't involve any amount of logic or reasoning because you know one wrong answer will be eliminated for you.

>>84093404
I get the globe is flat but whats wrong about fish

>>84091012
This was argued in Brooklyn Nine-Nine by a fat black guy and his gay British lover

They solved the puzzle by having gay sex

>>84093458
have you ever seen a real fish you dumb nigger?

>>84093292
the reason this "works" is because the initial pick can't be opened, the right pick can't be opened, therefore the remaining door has twice the chance of being right than the initial pick.

>>84093458

do you really expect me to believe something lives underwater? you can't even BREATH underwater

>>84093404
Fish is real. I saw him play at a concert.

>>84093404
I'll bite...what do you think the fish at the grocery store actually are? have you ever tried to fish in a lake? what about the fish they sell at pet stores?

>>84093510
No that was Kanye

>>84093458
>the globe is flat

>>84093432
you keep on writing this bait yet nobody answers, aren't you bored yet?

>>84093515
The irony is you're taking bait that is questioning the existence of fish.

>Car has a 1/3 chance of being behind the player's pick and a 2/3 chance of being behind one of the other two doors.
>The host opens a door, the odds for the two sets don't change but the odds move to 0 for the open door and 2/3 for the closed door.
>the odds for the two sets don't change

I'm no mathsfag but this seems completely retarded to me. With one goat door being opened, that takes it out of the running, so instead of the non-chosen doors being 2/3 chance of having the car, shouldn't it be reset to now having 1/2 chance just like the chosen door?

>>84093523
Kanye doesn't exist, lay off the bluepills

I know how crazy people feel when I think about the Monty Hall problem


To me, the actual probability as being 2/3 is like telling me 2+2=5. It's like math itself is part of the conspiracy to undermine my sanity

>>84093515

it's just fucking chicken spiced and cooked differently.

>>84093397
There's another six configurations that are discarded because of "monty's" interference.

If he says "fuck you ain't openin a door" then the chance of winning drops to 1 in 3 no matter what.

>>84093654
no shit

>>84093602
that's why I said "I'll bite"
>>84093646
what about the other 2 questions?

>>84093632
It does, but egos like to dream. 50/50 isn't as sexy as multiple possibilities.

>>84091012
21

>>84091096
Retard

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0

>>84093632
He can't open the initial door, he can't open the winning door, so by opening a losing door, he's removed an additional variable from the equation. There was only a 1 in 3 chance of picking correctly the first time. But once two variables are out, the remaining door has a 2/3 chance of being correct.

>>84093740
Well, you certainly convinced me!

>>84093515

I've been to a lake and even used a fish finder ZERO FISH. not A SINGLE FISH. Pet store fishes are just frog tad pools that never mature. Just like chicken eggs never hatch before you eat them.

>>84093673
Just saying, this isn't that magical or mysterious, monty fucking with the situation causes the odds to fall out of the house's favor.

its no more mysterious than, say, a casino going out of business because the owner starts demanding the dealer hit twice whenever they have a ten of spades.

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>>84091012
>Are there any films that deals with this concept?

Doesn't really deal with it so much as reference it, but the theme behind your question and the theme to the movie are pretty much the same thing.

Check it out, at the very least it's Kate Bosworth Kino and Kevin Spacey and Lawrence Fishburn are cool as always

>>84091547
If you pick one door, there is a 2/3 chance that the prize is behind one of the other two doors.

When he reveals a zonk from the other two doors, that 2/3 probability gets put behind the other remaining door.

>>84093746
How are two variables out? One door is removed and he now has a choice between two doors; the one he originally picked and the remaining door.

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So, here me out, I think some of the confusion comes from the fact that there are two different contexts in this problem.

50/50ers look at it only from the perspective of the final snapshot. You have two doors, ones a goat and ones a car.


2/3ers look at the problem from it's whole. Before anything starts, the 2/3 probability exists to switch.

>>84093853
the removed door had to be an empty one. that means there is one empty door and one door with a car. if you initially picked an empty door (for which you had 2/3 chances), switching means you get the car door

>>84093853
Because he can't open the winning door, just to fuck with you, and say you lost. If you're not on the winning door, he can only open one door. The chances you picked the winning door initially 1/3. The chances you're on a losing door is 2/3. So if you picked a loser, and he opens a loser, the remaining door has a 2/3 chance of being the winner.

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>>84093740
Thats a really good video, and I liked the 100 door problem at the end
>100 doors
>you choose one
>he opens 98 doors with the wrong thing
Did you really pick the right door in that 1 in a 100 chance?
It gets even more clear when you add more doors to that situation. Say 1,000 doors.
This kinda shit really activates my almonds

>>84093972
>here me out
fuck off retard

>>84093972
well, ignoring 90% of the situation and then claiming the remaining 10% is all that matters is ... well, what people are taught to do these days. From almost as soon as they're conscious every day till they're dead.

>>84094154
90% of everything is bullshit.

>>84094206
That's an improper application of sturgeon's law and you know it. You should be ashamed of yourself.

>>84093830
>MIT high level mathematics class
>Professor is impressed when student responds to high school tier probability question

I fucking hate Monty Hall, whoever the fuck he was, may he burn in hell, him and his goddamn doors.

>>84093838
If you pick one door, either the prize is behind it or not. When it's revealed it's not behind another door, there's still a 50% chance that it's behind the door you chose.

>>84094297
negro just because there's two possibilities doesn't mean they are equal fuck your agnostic shit

>>84094154
Nothing in the beginning of the problem is relevant at the door switch though. It's like a computer doing garbage collection

>>84094262
iktf

I hate badly done exposition, once you start noticing it you can't stop

Gotta let the audience feel like they're smart too ae

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>>84094333
?
It's always an either/or situation. How could it be otherwise?

>>84094337
this logic only holds if the door monty opens is random, it isn't.

>>84094392
I bake 100 pies
one is poision

I give all of them to you

is the chance of eating a poison pie 50/50? Fuck no it isn't goddamn son stay in fucking school or drop out and go to a trade school

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>>84091731

Does this mean that the holocaust simultaneously did or did not happen until I personally observe it either happening or not happening?

i really really hate math fags

>>84091148
When you pick out of three doors you have 1/3rd chance of picking the right one. Once you eliminate one door you have a 50/50 shot so you should switch the door and take the 50/50 shot instead of sticking with the 1/3rd chance

>>84094459
Yes. Either you eat a poison pie or you don't. Why is this so hard to understand? Don't answer, I already know: the ego likes to complicate things and create fantasies to keep reality at bay.

>>84091661
I think its /int/ and /b/ combined?

>>84094459
>is the chance of eating a poison pie 50/50?

Yes, because you already know no matter what pie you pick, 998 poison ones are getting thrown in the trash.

>b-but you have a higher chance to pick a poison one!

Suck my dick, it's 50/50

>>84094544
And the game host would know the theoretical chances and rig the game. These things are completely pointless because real life never works like that.

>>84094544
again, that only holds if the door monty eliminates is random. it isn't. Monty has to open a losing door. There are only two losing doors. If you picked one (2/3 chance) initially, then monty can only eliminate another loser. Thus switching grants a 2/3 chance of winning, whereas staying remains a 1/3 chance.

>>84094459
i am morally obligated to eat all but the poison pie since i don't want to waste your effort so it's 50/50

all the fucking retard who said "IT IS 50/50" irl somehow all refuse to do the experiment but with real money with me

>>84094637
>>84094599
>>84094569
damn niggas can't be into maths no more shit

>there are actually human beans in this thread who believe a choice between two doors is 50/50

>>84094615
How would he rig it? Unless that fucker is moving the prizes around as you switch the door than you should be good

>>84092519
What is with people breaking the fucking nap
This is a libertarian website

ITT: Idiots who are being trolled by even bigger idiots.

>>84091095
I think you are talking about 21?

>>84094668
Well, yea, if they thought they only had a 50/50 chance of winning they wouldn't do it.

>>84091041
Consider the game with 100 doors. You choose one, they open up all the doors except for one and your chosen door. Would you change then?

>>84094695
Not sure if serious or just retarded

>>84094670
It's not a mathematical problem, despite efforts to turn it into one. It's a logical one and is solved simply, as are all logical problems.

>>84094691
human is a bit stretching it

>>84094695
even if the fucker is moving the prize around, the odds still favor switching twice as much as staying.

>>84094743
What if he moved the car to your door?
Then you should switch half the time right?

>>84094723
you should've left it as a math problem. You need to be educated to know math. Trying to say its a logic problem means you're just fucking stupid, as you're actively ignoring a huge chunk of the logic because its difficult to comprehend.

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>>84094732
>anyone who doesn't agree with me is sub-human
Nice.

>>84094786
what if the door is your mother's vagina and i open it with my penis

>>84093740
>https://youtu.be/4Lb-6rxZxx0?t=177
I don't get it. The new information doesnt change either probability. There's still a 1/2 chance of the car being behind either door

>>84094797
No, a logic problem is simple and you are complicating it by making it something else.

>>84094786
If you mean removing the chance at winning the car by moving it to your original door that you switched from without you knowing it then it gets more complicated. but at that point it should be 50% but im just guessing.

wait this is 4chan, its totally 50% and if you think im wrong the youre retarded /s

>>84091535
no, he opens another door that you didnt choose, so still the same chances

>>84094829
if you are not trolling
forget about the chance after the door was being opened, focus on the chance of your door in the beginning and after one of the random (but surely has a goat ) door opened

>>84091731
pull the switch and immediately 180 and walk away, plugging my ears so i can't even hear the results. Cackle to myself, having completed my dastardly plan of trapping 15 people in a quantum entanglement

The general consensus seems to be that it's 50/50 and you should only switch if you picked the wrong door. Anyone have any arguments against this?

>>84094863
> /s
fuck off to reddit

You're monty.

You put a car behind one of three doors.

A contestant walks up.

This fucking retard chooses the wrong door.

You have to open a door.

You can't open a winning door.

You can't open the door he choose.

Therefore there is only one door you can open.

Retard had a 1/3 chance to start with. But now, the remaining door has a 2/3 chance of being correct, as two variables were locked out. So if he doesn't switch, hes betting on the 1/3 chance he had initially instead of the 2/3 chance he had of picking a wrong door.

>>84094923
>4chan
>not trolling

The Middle East version of the show features 2 cars and 1 goat

>>84093491
but if the initial and the right one are the same than you have zero chances. YOu're assuming you'd never pick the right one in the initial pick

>>84094829
You had more chances of being wrong when there were more doors to choose from.

Imagine with 100 doors, you pick one so you have only 1% chance of being right.

98 empty doors open, if you do nothing you still have 1% chance of being right since the probability hasn't changed.
But if you switch you have 99% chance of being right.

>>84094952
baited

I think a better way of understanding the problem is to instead imagine 100 doors, 99 of which have nothing behind them and one of them has a car.

If you were to pick a door and then 98 of the 100 doors were revealed to have nothing behind them then there are two possibilities.

1. You, by a 1 in 100 chance, picked the door with the car behind it initially

2. You picked a door with nothing behind it and the one that you didn't select is the one with the car

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>>84095037

>>84094956
>This fucking retard chooses the wrong door.

Everyone forgets that you could have chosen the right door to begin with.

>>84095023
No, its the idea that you had a 2/3 chance to pick the wrong door initially. Then by opening a wrong door, the remaining door now has a 2/3 chance of being right.

>>84095087
>>84095087
yeah that was the whole fucking point of the problem
the chance that you pick the right one was 1/3, the chance of you picking the wrong one is 2/3. so that's why switching give you 66% (2/3) chance of winning
NOBODY SAID SWITCHING GONNA GUARANTEE A WIN

>>84095087
Keep reading negro.

>>84095110
>No, its the idea that you had a 2/3 chance to pick the wrong door initially.
Here's where you made a mistake. You had a 50% chance of picking the correct door initially. Anything that follows from this is flawed because of this initial mistake.

>>84095110
he will always open a wrong door, so any door will have a 2/3 chance

>>84095081
9/10 post

(there would only be 2 doors left so its a 50/50)

unless you meant 97 in which case, yeah duh, stop making sense on 4chan

>>84095157
That only holds if you ignore the other two doors.

>>84092323
You are really bad at conveying ideas visually.
The fact that you use 1 door to represent 2 doors is fucking confusing. Never try to teach anyone anything.

>>84094949
you have a 2/3 chance of being wrong the first time, though.

it's not that you should switch if you picked the wrong door, it's that you probably picked the wrong door.

so because you always get to see a goat, you're really making a choice between two: the one that you would have 2/3 of picking, the other goat, vs another one you would have had 1/3 of a chance picking. you should switch.

>>84095212
You only get one choice, so it doesn't matter if there are a zillion doors. Either the prize is behind the door you chose or it isn't.

>>84095254
so alls i gots to do is play the loterry twice and imma guaranteed millions??

>>84095250
It wasn't mine. I picked it up off /sci/ because it helped me.

>>84095294
No, each time you play either you will win or you won't. Did you really need me to explain this to you?

>>84095294
probability isn't additive

>>84091840
nice face

are people responding to the 50/50 trolls doing some double reverse meta trolling this or what

>>84095325
damn shit nigga, I's played that shit like 40 times if its always a 50/50 shot thens i shoulda seens some millions by now yo

This is not a problem. You can't know what's behind the doors without opening them.

>>84094929
>180 and walk away
>not 360
If you 180 you'd be walking towards it retard

i honestly can't tell how many people ITT don't understand this problem and how many are pretending not to understand and the whole thing is pissing me off. do math teachers have a high rate of suicide? they have to right? i'm pretty sure if i tried to be a math teacher i would kill myself in short order

What's the difference between this and just picking between two doors?

>>84095325
so you are saying that there are 2 types of people in this world, those who have won the lottery and those that havent, so you have a 50/50 shot

>not just infiltrating the studio and training the goat to help you cheat

>>84095359
its fun to see how far they can keep the logic intact, that's about it.

>>84095372
It's not a mathematical problem.

>>84095372
i think most people just trolling, 210 posts and only like 70+ people posting

if you want legit dumb fuck, check the youtube comment section


also what if i want both the goats though, can i just trade the car for them?

>>84095396
Sure. Just as with anything. Either it will happen or it won't.

>>84095372
to be fair, as a math teacher, if a student tries to be intentionally retarded, you just give him a zero and ship him off to the retard class.

>>84095456
that probably depends on what grade you are teaching, and where you are teaching in the world. western schools including colleges have become pretty tolerant towards retards lately.

>>84095372
see
>>84094706

>>84095030
>if you switch you have a 99% chance of being right
okay so lets imagine that somehow (in the three door problem) the two doors are closed and the zonk has been shown in the third door but you haven't chosen the first door yet. In this scenario you have a 1/2 chance of being right by picking either the first or the second door. Back to the original problem though you have already chosen the first door BUT then he asks you to choose again. So its a 1/2 chance for each just like above, I don't see how the 2/3 chance can just concentrate into one door, that makes no logical sense

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>>84095588
>so let imagine this entirely different scenario
fucker you can't just go changing the wording and scenario of the original problem and then claiming it is false. this is the monty hall's problem, not fucking anonymous 22345365 on 4chan problem

>>84095523
even at the college level, if they want to blow their scholarship, tuition, or financial aid pretending to be retarded, more power to them.

>>84095588
>BUT then he asks you to choose again
No, he asks you to keep the choice you made before when there was 3 doors, or change it.
That's not the same thing as choosing between two doors.

>>84095669
I "changed" the scenario but then showed how the original one is the exact same thing as the "new" one, reread the post and explain how the 2/3s chance gets concentrated into one door for me

>>84095714
well even without pretending there are no shortage of actual retards to piss teachers off at any education level.

Name a worst thing than mathfags.

Pro tip: you fucking can't

>>84095754
>keep a choice on one door or pick a new door
>choose between one door or another
considering probability, how are these not the same

>>84095588
the monty hall problem is specifically built around monty having a 2/3 chance of only being able to open one door.

the problem with retards who doesn't get this is because they always ignore the rules and the information that the show give them and invent their own scenario to prove that they are right

>>84095762
being able to say "no, you're wrong" with absolute authority offsets that a fair bit.

>>84095799
Because you chose the first door when there was three doors.
So that isn't the same probability as choosing between two doors.

Replace 3 with 100 to see it more easily.

>>84094829
There is a 99% chance that the car is behind one of the 99 doors that you didn't pick. Agree? If 98 of those doors are opened there is a 99% chance the car is behind the unopened door that you didn't pick. Follow? So you have a 99% chance of getting the car if you switch. Get it now?

>>84095844
Actually, you're the problem.

>tfw no monty hall numberwang game show

>>84095929
to make it even simpler

you had a 99% of being wrong initially.

98 wrong doors are opened

Staying is betting on the 1% chance you were right initially.

Switching is betting on the 99% chance you were wrong initially.

Fuck Monty Hall. What kind of host does not open the door you explicitly wanted to be opened.

>>84095874
No, technically that is not the same probability as choosing between two doors. But once you choose the one door and then he opens the other it becomes the same probability because when he asks you if you want to switch he is essentially asking you to choose between two doors again

>>84096039
the type that's trying to give you a better chance of winning.

Of course the fact he'll just say you friggin won if you picked correctly initially also fucks up the entire scenerio.

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>>84091012
The trick is that the game show host can't reveal the prize door.

Imagine you do the game again, but with 99 goat doors.
You pick a door at random, 1/100 chance of being the prize door.
Host reveals 98 goat doors and asks if you want to switch to the other of the 2 remaining doors.

Obviously it was more likely that the prize door was among the 99 doors that you didn't pick so you should switch.

>>84096038
staying is betting on the 50% chance that you are right
switching is betting on the 50% chance that you are wrong

prove me wrong

>>84096095
>mfw compound on the monty hall problem with the door we also have schrödinger monty hall. dark monty who will try his best to trick you and dank monty who will cheat to help you

And what if I wanted the goat all along?

Checkmate atheists.

>>84096130
You proved yourself wrong.

>>84096154
Goat fucker identified.

>>84096173
How did he prove himself wrong?

>>84096154
w-what are you going to do with the goat?

>>84096173
how?

>>84096061
>because when he asks you if you want to switch he is essentially asking you to choose between two doors again
No, if you don't switch doors the probability doesn't change.
Opening other doors or asking you questions whever to switch or not doesn't magically change the probability that you got it right when you choose between the 3 (or 100 doors)

>>84096154
then you kiss monty with tongue
also is that you pimmel?

>>84096214
honestly I think the disparity with this problem is just the way people think about it, the way I see it the probability change is obvious once he opens the door, not magic, but I also understand the point you are making.

Has a formal experiment ever been performed to show that switching the door will result in more success over time?

>>84096326
you could write a program to do it super easily and then run millions of tests in a few seconds

>>84091041
>>84091096
t.brainlets

>>84096326
Yes Mythbusters famously did some experiments, and you could do some yourself with some basic programming.

>the way I see it the probability change is obvious once he opens the door
Maybe you should learn more about probability, sometimes demonstrably true results go against our basic intuition.

>>84096386
so you have a big brain and you have to use it wanking off mentally to solving imaginary problems that don't exist? lol

did the showrunner kill the woman who solved this problem because people keep getting the car?

>>84091041
>>84091096
I think part of the reason that people think it doesn't matter whether you switch has to do with the problem is told, leaving a lot of information left unclear.
The normal analysis assumes that Monty would have revealed an empty door no matter which door you picked, which isn't always clearly stated when people present the problem. In a real life situation, you wouldn't be able to make that assumption unless Monty specifically informed you this, which seems unlikely. Perhaps the show-runners are being jerks and only reveal what's behind an unpicked door if you initial guess was correct, in order to screw up the strategy of switching.

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>wasting your neurons on this shit when our current math system is fucking FLAWED

LMAO

It's just a dumb way for brainlets to act smart.

Because the rules make no logical sense, the only thing that matters is your probability of being wrong because the right door will always be one of two.

You're betting on getting it wrong, basically.

>>84096533
hmmmmmmmmmmm. not sure why i never thought about this, i'm sure someone will pipe up why that's not a problem

>>84096533
3/3 = 1 though

>>84096533
.999999999.....=1

>>84096533
Are you dumb or something, there are many math proofs that .9999999999~ is equal to 1

If you can't understand this basic concept you are literally subhuman.

>>84096823
kids are literally being taught how to never be able to understand it in public schools

File: test.png (88KB, 1380x702px) Image search: [Google]

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Enjoy this jsfiddle I just worked up to test this problem.
https://jsfiddle.net/sfsbg24n/1/

>>84096823
I understand that it's a way for people to wank about nothing in order to view themselves as intelligent. Not anything more than that to understand, as far as I can tell.

>>84096876
in other words (((they))) are raising our children to be subhuman monkeys and to breed with other monkeys

>>84096126
this is the proper way to explain the issue at hand

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>>84091910
This is fucking retarded because its going under the assumption that i pick door 1 and door 3 is farthest from my choice, meaning that the host is trying to influence me based on positioning

What if i picked door 2?

ALSO, how can a Mathmatical equation compensate for a process upon which human intentions in a competition based environment

Why is statistics so fucking autistic? Jesus Christ. What the fuck does it matter what the "probability" is when even with a 99.9999999% chance of getting something you could still not get it? Literally what is the point? Statsfags should be shot in the street for peddling their crystal ball snake oil bullshit.

>>84091910
Demonstrably wrong too
see
>>84096907

>>84097081
You're retarded, the game show host has no choice. He can only pick 1 door to reveal. There's no influencing possible.

>>84096907
Dude you almost got me. The test was a naive way to set the conditions of the problem and I couldn't see what you were doing wrong for a minute there.

>>84097256
I didn't do anything wrong. I did things really concisely and you didn't understand.

If your initial guess was the prize door then switching makes you lose and the function returns false.
If your initial guess was not the prize door then switching makes you win and the function returns true.

>>84091041
>>84091096
People literally tested it with ball underneath a paper cup.

>>84097354
Ok that makes sense, I was dumb.

Having debated this against a good amount of morons with the mental capacity of a cinderblock that are so deeply entrenched in their "EITHER/OR IT'S 50/50" idea, I've found that listing the outcomes helps them understand best.

CASE A: GGC
Door 1 - Stay = L
Door 1 - Switch = W
Door 2 - Stay = L
Door 2 - Switch = W
Door 3 - Stay = W
Door 3 - Switch = L
CASE B: GCG
Door 1 - Stay = L
Door 1 - Switch = W
Door 2 - Stay = W
Door 2 - Switch = L
Door 3 - Stay = L
Door 3 - Switch = W
CASE C: CGG
Door 1 - Stay = W
Door 1 - Switch = L
Door 2 - Stay = L
Door 2 - Switch = W
Door 3 - Stay = L
Door 3 - Switch = W

Switch Win Percentage = 6/9 = 66%
Stay Win Percentage = 3/9 = 33%

>>84097670
>people who use simple logic are morons
>people who use imaginary mathematical concepts are super-smart
ok

this is one confusing monty python bit lads

It's 50/50 because the other door Monty picks is out of the game.

>>84096656
x = 0.9...
10x = 9.9...
10x - x = 9.9... - 0.9... = 9
10x - x = 9x = 9
9x/9 = 9/9
x = 1 = 0.9...

0.9... = 1

>>84097670
negro I see 9 wins and 9 losses

>>84097996
Correct
6 of those wins and 3 of those losses are a product of switching
3 of those wins and 6 of those losses are a product of sticking with your original choice

>>84098065
so its 50/50

>>84097139
>The given probabilities depend on specific assumptions about how the host and contestant choose their doors. A key insight is that, under these standard conditions, there is more information about doors 2 and 3 that was not available at the beginning of the game, when the door 1 was chosen by the player: the host's deliberate action adds value to the door he did not choose to eliminate, but not to the one chosen by the contestant originally.

Learn to read you fucking autist

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>>84098099
Dear god you can't be this dumb.

>>84098099
You win 6 out of 9 times when switching
You win 3 out of 9 times when staying

>>84098155
so its 50/50

For those legitimately having a hard time understanding just imagine there are 1000 doors, you pick one and then 998 are revealed. Clearly in this situation you will switch.

>>84096533
This made me realize that the Monty Hall problem has largely supplanted 0.999... = 1 as the math troll of choice.

>>84098099
>>84098152
>>84098155

Count the wins
Now count the losses
How many wins? 9
How many losses? 9

Meaning its a 50/50 chance

Fucking idiots

>>84097670
spreading out the matrix it out just makes it look like its 50/50

the logic is simpler than that. If you have a 2/3 chance to be wrong initially, then a wrong choice is removed, the remaining choice has a higher probability of being correct. Staying is betting on the 1/3 chance you had initially, switching is betting on the 2/3 chance you were wrong initially.

>>84098309
50%

>>84098309
25%?

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>>84098340
alright smartypants

>>84098389
You can't pick a right answer.

>>84098309
Possible outcomes
>TT
Already discarded
>HH
>HT
>TH
So there is only 33% of chances of the other one being Heads.

The tricky part is "at least one", if it said "the first one is heads" then the results would be 50/50

An excellent "film" thread biased liberals

>>84098431
pretty sure this is assigned as part of remedial math in summer school every year.

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>>84098410
he's good!

>>84098389
What is the question?

>>84098461
The ping pong ball side, because the weight of the string and the ping pong

>>84098464
the one that is asked

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>>84098389
50%
>actually the 236th law of applied Mathmatics when applied to fbbswgvbkjdzxcchkkk vseyuknbzaaqwryiokbvxxsrtgv zawet

>>84091910
is /tv/ smarter than a woman? MRAs BTFO

>>84098461
Depends on tbe weight of the steel ball

>>84098501
oh I'm sorry, you were doing so well too!

>>84098561
it does not, ping pong and steel ball take up the same volume

>>84098461
This doesn't even make any sense.

>>84094126
>Did you really pick the right door in that 1 in a 100 chance?
I really like how you said that. That right there made me understand it very well. Thanks, anon.

>>84091096
Maybe you are right, unless no one knows where the prize is, if that's the case, it goes to schrodinger dimension until revealed.

>>84098600
please think carefully before submitting your answer

>>84098592
Isnt the steel ball denser?

>>84098461
buoyancy pushes the steel ball side down for reasons

>>84098526
But it isn't. You didn't pick the number at random. The question is a paradox. You cannot answer it without reading the question but upon read the question you have removed the random part of the question. So you're never gonna get a right answer.

>>84098309
>>84098340
>>84098373
>>84098389
>>84098416
Wrong. Scientific studies have proven flipping a coin is not exactly 50/50 chance. It's actually 51/49, with 51 being the face of the coin that is facing upwards when you flip it. This has been done thousands of times and it comes to about 51%/49%.

So, you're wrong even if you apply this. The question needs to state a vacuum with the coin on it's side being flipped.

>>84098318
This would hold in a universe where you can superimpose switching and not switching at the same time.
It's too bad we live in a deterministic world and you gotta take a stance.

>>84098643
But the steel ball is suspended, it doesn't add any weight

>>84098643
yes but irreverent

>>84098659
the buoyancy effect is equal on both beakers

>>84098693
Oh fuck sake i see it

Well done you cunt

>>84098685
>Wrong. Scientific studies have proven flipping a coin is not exactly 50/50 chance. It's actually 51/49, with 51 being the face of the coin that is facing upwards when you flip it. This has been done thousands of times and it comes to about 51%/49%.
>So, you're wrong even if you apply this. The question needs to state a vacuum with the coin on it's side being flipped.
We are talking about math problem not real life, in real life coins tend to have more weight in one side usually.

>>84098726
which is why the steel ball side is forced downwards, because it can be. The ping-pong side can't move.

>>84098726
>the buoyancy effect is equal on both beakers
Yeah but the left container has the wight of the ping pong ball and the string, the right side doesn't have any additional weight at all.

>>84098685
You dont see the flaw in your logic do you?

>>84098776
offset by the additional water in the steel side

>>84098811
There is no additional water because we assume steel ball and ping pong ball has the same volume according to pic

>>84098461
it will tip to the right if the buoyancy of the steel ball is more than the weight of the ping pong ball

>>84098890
lower density of the string displaces water, there is more water in the steel side because there is less string in the water.

>>84098461
The buoyancy force upwards on the steel ball is counteracted by the string, at least partially, so it has less overall upwards force.

The left beaker has the complete downwards force counteracted by the tension in the string, thus having a greater overall upwards force.

>>84091547
When you chose one of the doors, you chose at a 1/3 probability. Meaning that there is a 2/3 probability that the prize is behind the other doors. When the host reveals a goat behind one of the doors, your choice was still at the 1/3 probability. What has changed is that the 2/3 probability of the prize being in the other two cups is now moved to one cup. Think of it like this:

Prize: C. A And B equals goats

1. Pick: A, left C And B. Host reveals goat, you switch you win. Stay you lose.

2. Pick B, left C and A. Host reveals goat, you switch you win, stay you lose.

3. Pick C, left A and B. Host reveals goat, you switch you lose, you stay you win.

In only 1 of the 3 scenarios do you win if you stay. Think of it like this. Change it to a hundred doors and then the host opens 98 of the doors revealing goats. Do you keep the door you chose or the door that's left? What are the chances you blindly picked the one door out of a 100? 1 in a 100. What are the chances the other door has the prize? 99 in a hundred.

Human cognitive biases just make us think the two problems are different.

>>84099355
stop going back and forth between right and wrong.

You start with a 2/3 chance to be wrong. When another door is opened, switching has half the chance of being wrong as you did originally.

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>>84096038
And now I finally get it, thank you.

It's 50/50. Stop trolling on such a hot summer day, fagtards.

>>84096517
You're completely right and its unfortunate that this goes over so many people's heads. There are a huge number of people who legitimately think that switching when Monty's behavior is unknown would result in a 2/3 chance because "that's just how probability works", and completely misunderstand it themselves. Taking it in context, it would be difficult to get much more than 1/2 chance if you didn't know the restrictions on the host's behavior.

>>84096205
make milk

>>84100228
the restrictions are implied though. He can't fuck with you. So he can't open the winning door and he can't open your door. Meaning he has to open a wrong door. Since you had a 2/3 chance to pick a wrong door at the start, that means the remaining door only has a 1/3 chance of being wrong.

>>84100313
>the restrictions are implied though
How?

>He can't fuck with you.

In most statements of the problem I've seen, you don't know this. He could very well be fucking with you by deliberately revealing the goat in response to you choosing the car, which completely fucks your understanding of the probabilities.

>>84100437
Which is irrelevant to the probabilities. Just because you beat the odds of being wrong originally doesn't mean switching has a lower probability of being wrong.