Based Nate Silver

I hate Jews.

>math is only sometimes right
This is why I don't trust scientists.

Itt: people who don't understand statistics

>>76528132
This was the most easily predicted finals in history

You literally have the GOAT team against LeBron's misfits.

>>76528184
>This was the most easily predicted finals in history
Then why did /sp/ get it so wrong?

>>76528132
>says trump has 30% chance of winning, he won, therefore considered right
>tfw as long as you give all options above 0% chance of happening you can't be wrong

Prediction is a tough business. Sometimes you have a good prediction and the result proves you wrong. Sometimes you have a bad prediction and the result proves you right. It's more important to look at the process than the results for a single prediction

>>76530754
In the case of Nate Jewelry, his process was skewed on purpose to show Hillary as the more attractive candidate. What you're saying is true in theory but it's not true in this particular case.

>>76528158
>>/pol/

>>76528132
he could've said they had 99.9% chance to win and still be right

>>76528132
>Nate Bronze

>>76528132
statisticians are faggots. probability is a spook. object-classes are spooks. inferences are spooks. etc

File: 1452684967160.gif (2MB, 472x360px) Image search: [Google]

2MB, 472x360px

>Nate Copper

File: Nate Asbestos.jpg (118KB, 657x543px) Image search: [Google]

118KB, 657x543px

>>76528132
Nate Arsenic predicted the sun would rise in the east? And in the morning?

What a genius.

>>76528132
They really think they're doing to spam this plant into credibility?

>>76528132
it was 90-10 at the start of the series

>>76532841
Thank you for the clarification /lit/ now please explain how Socratic questioning will help me make profitable sports wagers.

>>76533699
problem of induction means youre prolly fucked in the end. bookies setting the spreads means youre fucked too

>>76528961
As much as people love to shit on Silver for not calling the election for Trump, you need to give 538 credit for being the only major aggregate giving him a significant chance of victory.

Oh wait, you're not here to talk actual stats you're here to call me a cuck.

>>76528132
Never doubt him

Give him credit, he was one of the less delusional "pollsters" during the past campaign cycle, he saw the writing on the wall in the last week or so and bumped Trump up to 30% chances.

File: nate silver is a total hack.jpg (799KB, 690x6602px) Image search: [Google]

799KB, 690x6602px

>>76528132
>reading 538 democrat talking points.com

>>76538638
some people actually predicted a trump victory

>>76538690

/po/ was actually right with the "monster vote" thing

I still don't fucking understand how the polls could be so delusional as to expect the same minority turnout as Obama, our first minority goddamn president

let's say it again: old boring corrupt white woman =/= untainted fresh black messiah figure

>>76538690
Please provide a well-respected source for that which wasn't obviously biased towards Trump.

Fact is that his victory was highly improbable given historical voting trends. The biggest mistake 538 made is what >>76538714
is saying, since it's insane to expect Clinton to get a similar minority turnout, even if she spent a lot of the time trying to schmooze up those voters.

I remember dozens of American media outlets bashing the LA Times because they gave Hillary "only" a 2 point lead instead of the "correct" 12 point lead.

File: NateSilverWisdom.png (232KB, 2790x1154px) Image search: [Google]

232KB, 2790x1154px

>>76528132
Yeah I mean look at all of these amazing predictions he made for the East at the begining of the playoffs.

>>76538740
please use google.com on your own time

>>76538776

It's not even logical. Not only were they being dishonest, making it look like a blowout was only going to make their low investment voting base even lazier. Conservatives aren't discouraged by bad odds, their stake is higher.

>>76538740
>some people actually predicted a trump victory
>yeah but but but but but *shits his pants*

wow

File: lol.jpg (89KB, 600x432px) Image search: [Google]

89KB, 600x432px

>>76528132
Perhaps he should stick to sports.

>>76528132
Has he admitted he was wrong about Messi being better than Ronaldo?
No? Then enjoy your right wing government cunts.

>>76538949
I don't even know how to reply to that post. He is explaining why they got it wrong and at the same he is still pushing a narrative where you either predict a Clinton victory or you are not well-respected and biased. Cognitive dissonance.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/09/23/election_forecasting_guru_allan_lichtman_predicts_donald_trump_will_win_2016_election.html

nate plastic is slanted garbage for idiots

>>76528184
>inb4 80iq retards think their feelings and understanding trumps math on a thread about nate silver
By most metrics that was one of the biggest mismatches in finals history, it was even bigger than his 07 finals. Remember this very same dude had the Cavs as the 4th best team in the east at the start of the playoffs. This team wasn't very good. Irving and love are good but overrated and that bench destroyed what little chance they had in the series.

>>76539030
His net worth is $2 million. I have people in my family worth more and I'm a nobody from flyoverville, ohio. If he was some elite authority on forecasting anything, he'd make far more than that simply starting with some meme sum of money and betting privately long ago by now

>>76539030
A few thousand Drumpkins in three swing states tipped the election.

>>76539116
that is a cool story