NO NO NO, THIS IS ALL WRONG. THIS CAN'T HAPPEN. MY

The Cavs aren't even close to winning the series

t. doesn't understand what probability means

>>76448357

>winning final 4-0
>winning final on the home team's court

do you hate money?

>>76448400
(((probability)))

>>76448400
this
don't entertain the willfully ignorant

>>76448463
(((Math)))
(((Science)))
(((Evidence)))
(((Facts)))

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>>76448357

This reminds me of something

>>76448463
I thought 4chan was supposed to have a lot of STEM types? You of all people should know what a probablistic model is

>>76448357
>Behind the scenes, the PECOTA process has always been like Von Hayes: large, complex, and full of creaky interactions and pinch points… The numbers crunching for PECOTA ended up taking weeks upon weeks every year, making for a frustrating delay for both authors of the Baseball Prospectus annual and fantasy baseball players nationwide. Bottlenecks where an individual was working furiously on one part of the process while everyone else was stuck waiting for them were not uncommon. To make matters worse, we were dealing with multiple sets of numbers.
>Like a Bizarro-world subway system where texting while drunk is mandatory for on-duty drivers, there were many possible points of derailment, and diagnosing problems across a set of busy people in different time zones often took longer than it should have. But we plowed along with the system with few changes despite its obvious drawbacks; Nate knew the ins and outs of it, in the end it produced results, and rebuilding the thing sensibly would be a huge undertaking. We knew that we weren’t adequately prepared in the event that Nate got hit by a bus, but such is the plight of the small partnership.
>As the season progressed, we had some of our top men—not in the Raiders of the Lost Ark meaning of the term—look at the spreadsheet to see how we could wring the intellectual property out of it and chuck what was left. But in addition to the copious lack of documentation, the measurables from the latest version of the spreadsheet I’ve got include nice round numbers like 26 worksheets, 532 variables, and a 103 MB file size. The file takes two and a half minutes to open on this computer, a fairly modern laptop. The file takes 30 seconds to close on this computer. …We’ve continued to push out PECOTA updates throughout the 2010 season, but we haven’t been happy with their presentation or documentation, and it’s become clear to everyone that it’s time to fix the problem once and for all.

>>76448626
All the actual nerds who founded this site left years ago. Now all thats left are dumb jocks who think voting for Trump and beating up minorities is "masculinity"

>>76448761
Link:

http://www.macleans.ca/uncategorized/tarnished-silver-assessing-the-new-king-of-stats/

>>76448357
man if the cavs pull it off i'm gonna have to ask silver to calculate my chances of getting a gf

>>76448566
His seating was Israel

>>76448801
That's sounds like a lot of projection sir. /pol/ is just one board

>exactly 0 (zero) teams have overcome a 0-3 disadvantage in the history of NBA
>lel Silver is so stupid giving Cleveland less than 1%

>>76448801
>he doesn't beat up minorities
reddit is that way, kiddo

>your predictions are shit
>LOL DUDE, BUT I SAID TRUMP/CAVS/CUBS/BREXIT HAD 1% CHANCE, DO YOU KNOW HOW PROBABILITIES WORK?

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Cavs and Drumpf are finished

>>76448566
I mean he did have a ceiling if he was up against literally anyone not named Hillary Clinton.

>>76448939
bernie would have won

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>L-lets giving LeBron 2% chance of winning the series

>>76448404
>hurr dubs wanted to win at home

They just had a chance to go 16-0. That's beyond legendary. They didn't throw this game, they choked.

>>76448357
top kek, is that the picture he uses?

>>76448958
Yeah, Carly Fiorina would have won too

reminder that statistics is not math

hmmm

cleveland america nigger eutopia

or chinkland 5000 gay area


hmmm

i wonder who the nba will let win this year

>>76448566
How can Silver ever recover

>>76448962

kek

>>76448939
Delusional. 538 ran an article before the election saying Hillary Clinton was the most electable candidate

Lol the Cavs have a 100% chance of winning the series so long as no one gets hurt or suspended which puts them at ~94% chance of winning the series. Silver is pulling numbers out of his ass. You can't measure emotional castration with numbers.

>>76448801
>not being a nerd that votes for trump and beats up minorities
wew lad

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>>76448939
Jim Webb would have literally won all 538 electoral votes. Someone prove me wrong. Which state would he have lost?

>>76449120
HA

HAHA

Trump had barely more votes than Romney IIRC.

The number 1 reason he won was because he wasn't Clinton. Not because muh outsider, muh honesty

>picture has a regression line and prediction interval
jesus, no wonder he gets everything wrong

>>76449173
the number one reason he won is because Dems ran a white person so they didn't get nignog votes in the record they did for Obongo
66% of nigs voted in 2012
51% voted in 2016

It's not Hillary that's a loser. It's the entire Democrat strategy

>>76448357
If you read the site's articles, they do get pretty snarky about the Warriors having a talent for failing to live up to expectations.

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CAVS BTFO

>>76448801

>implying minorities aren't the violent ones

Who are you trying to fool, exactly?

>>76449245
But Hillary is a coocked piece of shit.

After how they rigged the elections in the primeries against Bernie and got exposed, she lost a lot of millenial vote.

I'm not gonna day that Bernie would've won, but he at least would've better chances.

>>76449508
No.

>>76449173
>The number 1 reason he won was because he wasn't Clinton. Not because muh outsider, muh honesty

b-but /pol/ told me he won because they posted tons of memes and summoned the magic of an ancient amphibian god

>>76449594
I C E D
C
E
D

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>>76448801
Yes. The "masculine" Trump voter in all his glory here.

>>76449586
WTF you just showed me!

I'll just add one more thing though:
>Clinton had 17% fewer votes than Obama in WI
>the black population there is 6%
But yeah, she lost because she is white.

>>76449933
Great. Now pick up the 6 other swing states, all conveniently more black than WI

>>76449975
K

>Michigan
>14% blacks
>13% fewer votes than Obama
I doubt the black turnout decreased nearly 100%.
Jill Stein had more votes than the difference between Trump and Clinton. Why would someone vote for Stein? Because they don't want to vote for Clinton

>Pennsylvania
>10% blacks
>2% fewer voter than Obama
I guess you could be right on this one

>Florida
>17% blacks
>she actually had more votes than Obama
This one wasn't lost by Hillary, this one Trump won it.

The data doesn't tell me that the black vote was the factor that made the difference in the election. You could be right but the stats don't show that.

What it tells me is that if the Dems had put any decent candidate they would have won more states.

>>76448400
>If I say both teams have a chance to win I can never be wrong

lmao

>>76448626
Well he said that there was 1 % chance for Trump winning. 1% chance for that baseball team winning etc. The probability for him being unlucky thrice is like 0,01^3, so he's either a very unlucky guy or he's a fraudalent kike indeed

>>76448801
Small baller detected.

>Cavs still need to win 3 games
>Warriors only need to win 1
Yes, statistically the Warriors are far more likely to win. Just like last year, the Warriors were far more likely to win after 4 games.

That doesn't mean the Warriors will win, it just means that it's far more likely than the Cavs winning 3.

>>76450424
They said Trump had a 25% chance of winning though. You might be thinking of another website.

>>76450631

Nate Silver had 2 of his 7 election night predictions being Trump victories

>>76450424
538 had Hillary at 71.4% and Trump at 28.6% on the night of the election. Also, all 3 of those things are totally unrelated to one another, and they were very unlikely to happen. He hasn't even been wrong about this yet, they just won one game.

>>76448801

>Not being a minority and beating up the niggers of your minority