Dynasty rookies

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I have my dynasty fantasy league rookie draft tomorrow and I can't think of a season that I'm less sure of the draft order. It's a half ppr IDP league with one flex. I've got the seventh and seventeenth pick.

Here's my (rough) tiers.

Tier one:
Joe Mixon
Corey Davis
Christian McCaffery
Leonard Fournette

If Mixon didn't punch out that chick then he's the best back in this class, Davis is the best WR, McCaffery is either a ppr hero or the next Tavon Austin. I don't trust anyone on the Jags, even if they're getting fed the ball 30 times a game.

Tier 2:
Dalvin Cook
Mike Williams

Cook is perfect for Sam Bradford's new check down completion record, but that offense still sucks and he won't get goal line carries. Williams is already injured and despite his talent doesn't have a clear starting path. Upside puts him ahead of other players.

Tier 3.
Kareem Hunt
Samaje Perine
Alvin Kamara

Hunt and Perine should get starts this year. Kamara will play the pass catching back role for the saints which is always valuable in ppr.

Tier 4
John Ross
OJ Howard
David Njoku
Myles Garret
Malik Hooker
Deshawn Watson

I'm not touching Ross, he's an injury waiting to happen. Tons of upside with a different QB though. Howard could be great, in a few years like any other TE. Njoku will be rounding into form when the Browns finally get a QB. Here you've got your first defenders and QB.

Tier 5.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Zay Jones
Curtis Samuel
Adarius Stewart

WRs with shots at early playing time.

Thoughts?