>There are people right now doubting Nate Silver They should

>>76402106
nate silver was sowrong about the election its impossible to take him seriously

>>76402335
Meme magic doesn't work anymore

>nate tin

>it's another people don't understand the difference between statistics and predictions episode
Just how fucking stupid can you be?

>>76402106
Nate (Precious Metal)

Patriots had less that 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl at one point.

Cavs need Brady!!!

>>76402335
Out of all the pollsters, Nate was actually the least wrong ;)

>>76402106
Drumpf is finished: the jew

>>76402553
And that was because he had to include prediction from shit like the Huffington Post that had Shillary at 99%. Silver is the most accurate statistician out there.

>>76402417
This. Kek blew his wad with Trump. The agent of chaos has been planted, there is no need for further effort.

>>76402335
How was he wrong? He said Trump had a tiny chance to win and Trump won. He didn't say Trump had a 0% chance.

Nate Silver predicted that Trump had something like a 30% chance of winning. How was he wrong? Please respond with a superior model for making predictions about unknown future events based on probability.

>>76402106
Nate Silver, Adam Silver, hmm

>>76402335
That's 100% wrong. Silver gave Trump the highest probability of winning of all the poll aggregators, something in the order of 30%.

Guess what? 30% probabilities happen all the fucking time.

>>76402106
>had Cavs as 4th team most likely to win east going into the playoffs
That's where I have to draw the line and question his work

Nate Barium pulling his credibility up by his bootstraps

>trusting Nate Sodium

>>76402663
I predicted Trump had 100% chance of winning.

lmao JIDF damage control sirens must be sounding off right now

>>76402675
I wouldn't say they happen 'all the fucking time'. Maybe around 30% of the time.

>>76402650
>>76402663
Man it's annoying how people think probability works like: "If event X has a higher probability than event Y, then event X will occur 100% of the time", even if the probability split is like 70-30.

They're the reasons casinos and bookies make so much fucking money.

>>76402634
Don't bother, these people think that he did zero statistics and just predicted Hillary would win because that's what he wanted.

>>76402106
538 ran a piece recently detailing how lebron fucks their elo.
You're a moron.

>>76402675
>30% probabilities happen all the fucking time.

this is what retards don't get. also a ton of people still think Nate said Trump would win 30% of the vote (rather than having a 30% probability of winning)

>>76402793
this, it's sad but true

>>76402793
Actuall bookies make a lot of money because people think that gambling is a viable investment strategy

>>76402780
Yeah but trillions of events are occurring at any moment. So at any moment there are tons of 30% probability events happening.

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>>76402106
Also he was wrong about the cubes.

>>76402780
Ha yes, poor choice of words. All I mean is that low probability events do in fact occur.
>>76402867
Yeah, but that's fundamentally because they don't understand probability.

>>76402510
>>76402553
>>76402634
>>76402650
>>76402663
>>76402675
>>76402793
>>76402863
>>76402831
>>76402813


Hi shareblue

>>76402780
30% of the time it works every time

lmao all these nerds getting baited into posting rageposts because they want everyone to know they took a stat101 class in high school

>>76402905

>implying you can't understand statistics and also vote republican

>>76402915
>I was only pretending to be retarded

>>76402780
Yes and 3 things happening out of every10 tries is a fuckload of probability. You literally only have to ride out 2 rolls before it becomes literally even chances.

>>76402915
97% chance you're a lonely sad bitter virgin.

>>76402915
>baited
>implying most of the 14 year olds on here understand basic statistics

>>76402106
>Trump
jew silver isn't wrong in this one though

>>76402335
this. idk who this faggot is anyway

>>76402952
>>76402971
>>76402976
>>76403018
>being this assflustered on /sp/
We get it, you read Nate Silver's election post-mortem.

>>76403067
>>76403090
>Trump won so math isn't real

>>76403090
>Typical american anti-intellectualism
>hurr if I pretend I don't really care it means I'm not stupid

>>76403136
>butthurt lib
college and science and math are one huge rip off. None of that shit doesnt apply to real life and is used to enslave sheeple

Instead of taking math classes they need to be having kids learn how to change tires, use tools and balance a check book. What faggot needs probability? None of that shit works

>>76403136
>>76403139
I don't understand why you are trying to prove so hard to /sp/ that you understand basic probability. You seem really insecure for someone with such a high IQ.

>>76403194
10/10

>>76403248
>you seem insecure
Yes, posting things on the internet about how things actually are means I'm insecure about your stupidity.

>>76403194
You're literally retarded. Learning a trade is fine, but
>What faggot needs probability? None of that shit works
is something an actual retard thinks. Btw, Nate Silver's prediction was wrong and he's a huge faggot.

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>>76402106

>>76403194
>Amerifat education is a ripoff so math isn't real

I love these, keep posting.

>>76403317
>your
I'll kill myself RIGHT NOW if you can tell me in general terms how to find the expected value for a general probability distribution function, f(x), without googling it. Protip, you can't.

>>76403420
you mean the mean?

>>76403459
Yes, a layman would call it that.

>>76403352
for real outside of basic fractions, maybe some shit like dividing and how to count you really dont need math in your day to day.

I stop paying attention to that shit honestly in 8th grade and got back decently

everything in highschool was just a repeat of middle school and then you get bullshit complicated stuff like graphs and slope which have buttfuck to deal with anything.

i havent been in school for the last 8 years and i am 25. I work at Fed Ex loading trucks i dont need math or faggot libs that tell me or think they need to tell me they're better then me and math is important

The entire point of education is to make people feel superior to others and keep hard working people down.

Am glad Trump cucked most of those libs and buttfucked science

Jew Silver is a cuck working for Disney which is the ultimate scam, he makes up overly complex probabilities that make no fucking sense.

Pretty much math and science or like religion and the bible but for autistic cuck

>>76403483
Wow, way to put a lot of useless words into a simple concept.

>>76403420
Sum of the (prob * the gain/loss)

>>76403495
>I work at fed ex loading trucks
>so everyone doesn't need math

Oh I am laffin.

>>76403525
I'll hire 10 truck loaders over 10 liberal arts majors any day

>>76403525
Truck loaders beat any limp wrist lib in a game of basketball

They spend 12 hours a day lifting

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>>76402106
>>76403333
>ywn experience the night of Nov 8 again

>>76403549
>you
>hire anyone
No fed ex truck loader, you'll be loading trucks until you fall over dead of a heart attack at 50

>>76403508
>he claims to know statistics
>basic concepts like expected value and probability density functions are """useless words"""
Typical smallbrain Aussie. There's a reason they sent your ancestors to a containment island as far away from England as they could manage.

>>76403495
>I work at Fed Ex loading trucks i dont need math

kek 10/10 bait

>>76403495
You're a dumbass.

>>76402551
Give this man a Team in the MLB!

>>76403549
>Liberal arts major
>Knowing math
Pick one
>>76403569
>Math gives a shit about your political leanings
Pick none.

>>76403587
I like how you keep putting lots of words, but an expected 'value' is basically the aggregate of all possible values (mean). The problem is if you don't call it that most unimaginative morons couldn't fathom the concept.

>>76403580
bullshit 1 more year of working the docking station and then you get your foot in the door as a driver, Those guys make bank and guess what? no fucking math

That is called set for life

Work/lift/take protein/smoke weed/shoot guns

>>76403642
math and science fuck everything has a poltical leaning and both of those things lean left, lean liberal, lean gay, lean weak,

math and science are for cucks

>>76403647
>1 year of working in the docking station
Is exactly that, expertise in docking. Meanwhile educated people are performing functions that won't be replaced by robots in the next 20 years.

>>76402106
Everything is 50% because it either happens or it doesn't.

>>76403647
Fun fact, a lot of math goes into finding the most efficient driver routes for deliveries.

>>76403678
>Math / Science has political leanings
>The whole object of math and science is objectivity to the extreme.

I can't believe that Math and Science education is so poor in the 'First World' country that is America.

>>76403710
Fun Fact in about 10 years Fed Ex probably won't exist because everything will be delivered either by Uber style couriers or drones.

>>76403679
>20 years
you sound like my fag ass teachers back in school. who can think or plan that far out? i barely known what i am going to do in the next 2 days besides smoke a blunt and go to the shooting range


in 20 years i dont know if i am gonna be working still or go on to something else

>>76403678
You mean academia dumbass. Stop calling shit you don't understand left cuck etc. Read a book . Get off this website

>>76403749
Fed Ex is big enough and technically savvy enough to probably be able to figure out a way to survive longer than 10 years.

>>76403761
Bait

>>76403772
i read plenty of news articles and history books faggot

>>76402793
Americans don't take a statistics course in hs

>>76403761
>who can think or plan that far out?
Successful and rich people who don't become unemployed because they stuck all their eggs in one basket at 17 and became a stronk unskilled labourer who don't need no education.

>>76403796
That's what they said about Nokia before the Iphone arrived.

>>76403843
False. AP stat. Fucking leaf.

>>76403843
my senior year of HS i did but we had a choice between that business math or some other elective

wasnt taught very way but i got an A since the teacher was also my pre calc teacher

>>76402634
Why would he include huffpo? I remember for a while any article about Trump would have some copy paste paragraph about how racist and evil he was.

>>76403678
>math and science has political leanings
>water isn't H2O if you're cuckservative
>2+2 =/= 4 Unless you're a liberal

Literally kys or cut off your balls so you don't pollute the gene pool.

>>76403824
Well not enough because you don't understand science as a subject vs. science In academia

>>76402106
This stuttering jew plant faggot is a complete phoney


FUCK OFF

>>76403858
>suncessful
>4chan
>implying you are any better then the rest of us

You are still a liberal cuck
Except i know i could beat your ass in a fight cause i am stronger then you or i could stand by ground and blow your brains out

I am the superior person yet you hide behind a false sense of superiority because of mah math and mah science herp derp

>>76403858
>That's what they said about Nokia before the Iphone arrived.
Phones are things that get replaced regularly. Regardless of technological advancements, you'll still need the machines and transportation vehicles that aren't regularly replaced on a yearly basis. Fuck, people use planes that are decades old still. Fed Ex has plenty capital and that'll last a decent amount of time.

>>76403966
>You're any better then
>then
I already am. Thanks education!

>>76403889
>>76403904
What's the difference between AP stat and regular?

>>76403966
You're working a dead end job. A job you had all your adult life. You're stagnant. Get real. Get off this website and read a book.

>>76403979
Anything gets replaced regularly with technological advancements.
You aren't riding a horse and carriage are you? Do you actually expect that you won't be replaced by a self driving car in the near future?

>>76403964
I saw his NFL playoff picks


TOTAL FRAUD

and yeah jew plant

>>76403998
>huge opportunities for promotion like truck driver or even assistant manager and even manager
>dead end
fags noting stagnate about that you fag cucks

>>76404003
Trucks and planes will not be getting replaced on a massive scale like you'd predict. I'm not say Fed Ex will stay around forever. I'm saying they'll be able to stay in the game for a longer time than 10 years and it's not out of the question that they'd be able to pivot and remain just as successful.

>>76403987
One can get you college credit if you do well on the AP test. It's basically the same thing though.

>>76404031
>huge
The job is dead end. You're going to do the same shit the rest of your life.

>>76404035
>Trucks and planes will not be getting replaced
Do you know how low Pilot's salaries are right now?
Most of flight is already replaced with computers you don't actually think that technology has something to do with it?

>I can drive a truck so computers can't! I'll never be replaced!

Even white collar jobs are getting replaced by computers. Cab drivers are already on the way out. Truck drivers next.
Enjoy your short 'career' and poverty in the near future.

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>Nate Silver in charge of predicting anything
JUST

>>76404099
I'm a completely different anon and don't fucking work at Fed Ex, m8. I just think you saying Fed Ex will be dead in 10 years is way too fucking stupid and to think they won't do everything in their power to survive and adapt in a space which will still be making loadsamoney is ridiculous.

>>76404035
10 years ago the Iphone didn't exist, everyone took cabs to places that they wanted to go to and having a career as someone who played video games on the internet was not a viable career choice.
The trick to success is not being the retard holding the bag at the end and keeping your options open so you can adapt and recover.

>>76404101
To be fair, using analytics to make predictions relies a lot on past data, and Trump being Trump was anything but a traditional candidate.

>>76402335
He gave Donald Duck a 30% chance of winning which was way better than anyone else was giving him.

>>76404176
That retard has bought into the automation meme so hard.
>yes goy! The robots will replace you any moment now! Might as well quit now and get on welfare, goy!

>>76404188
>The trick to success is not being the retard holding the bag at the end and keeping your options open so you can adapt and recover.
Exactly, and I think Fed Ex certainly has the capacity to adapt and recover in a way you clearly don't think they can.

>>76404205
Silver is a literal faggot phoney Jew numbers jockey fraud.

>>76404205
Yeah, which is why his coverage of the election was completely asinine.

>>76404176
Fed Ex basically lives and dies on e-commerce right now. Nobody couriers documents anymore and their core business like any carrier is packages from internet sales.
Once Amazon and Co decide to cut out the middleman the best logistics companies can hope for is being absorbed by one of them.

>>76404243
>Adapt and recover
>All your sales are dependent on internet buying and selling and Amazon and the rest are looking to cut out the middleman as soon as possible to the point of doing outlandish shit like self propelled drones and robot couriers.

>>76404205
I think most people probably don't like silver because of his snug self sureness given that there are situations where its perfectly reasonable to say it's too difficult to predict.

That and his fan base which never seems to admit he's wrong.

>>76404304
FedEx is literally investing in self-driving trucks/drones like every other company a the moment. To think they're not at least attempting to be prepared for the future is fucking retarded.

>>76404319
>smugness

He's a stuttering faggot

And exists for propaganda

Like (((MSESPN))) has 538 for any other reason.

No one reads that shit.

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>>76404035
See picture for the future of Planes and Trucks


>>76404351
>Self driving trucks/drones
You'd think that this might affect the truck driver security somehow. Given how the poster's end came is being a driver or docking station porter.

>>76404382
all news is propaganda which is why you only need to stick to memes and lulz

>>76402650
99.9999% of the population has no substantial understanding of probability and statistics. Silver was right; the electoral college ending up where it did was improbable and the total vote ending up in Clinton's favor was expected.

>>76404427
It's statistics go....guy.

>>76404237
>technological advancements are a jewish conspiracy
The power of the american education system

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>>76404415
Pilots of the future rejoice

>>76404319
>offers a probability
>tells the reader the methodology that used to get those numbers

How is this being "wrong"? He's not predicting anything.

>>76404237
I think it actually means
>Hurry up and upskill and educate yourself before you literally become a citizen of detroit.

>>76404415
>See picture for the future of Planes and Trucks
Ah yes, large bulk shipments that need to go across the country or overseas will be easily delivered via drone! Of course!

>You'd think that this might affect the truck driver security somehow
I honestly don't give a fuck about what happens to the employs. I was just refuting your original stupid claim that FedEx would be dead in 10 years.

>>76404438
>Silver was right
HAHAHAHA

You have no way of knowing that with a sample size of 1. You'd have to somehow redo the campaign a large number of times to verify his 70/30 probability.

Also,
>muh popular vote
That's not how the game is played, so it literally does not matter.

>>76404479
Fuck this faggot and his bullshit (((numbers)))

>>76404468
Not an argument.

It's a "outliers prove statistics mean nothing" thread.

>>76404530
Yes,
>Large bulk shipments that need to go across the country or overseas will easily delivered via drone
Yes, large drones are still drones.

>>76404530
Fed Ex as you know it would be dead in 10 years. In the same way Nokia now sells 'telecommunications technlogies' and is living off patents not from making phones.

>>76404582
It's a Nate Silver defense force doesn't understand that a sample size of 1 is not enough evidence to prove one way or the other what an outlier even is episode.

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>>76404609
>FedEx changing its business model doesn't count as surviving

>>76404623
By your own logic a sample size of one also means you can't claim nate silvers probabilities are wrong

>>76404683
>one way or the other
Wow, you can read. Impressive.

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>>76404623
more like shills defending their propaganda plant

>>76404719
So you dont have an argument? What was even the point of your first post?

>>76404683
btw that's not my logic, it's fundamental frequentist statistics

Nate Silver is a con man
His propaganda is the definition of fake news
Make up mah math
have schills slurp up that shit

>>76404751
Some faggot (you?) was retarded enough to make the bold claim that not only was Silver not wrong, he was actually right. I'd love for you to demonstrate how that can be true given a single sample.

>>76404779
this anon gets it


he's global warming tier bullshit

>>76404811
Just because he gave trump a 30% chance to win, and trump won doesn't mean silver was wrong. You do not understand statistics if you think that

>>76404842
what triggers me is cucks like him get paid millions of dollars compared to hard working guys that work with their hands

when did being a man get punished but being a cuck that makes numbers up you get rewarded with a cushy desk job?

>have a fair coin
>P(heads)=P(tails)=0.5
>claim that P(heads) is really 0.9 because I'm le smart jewish man
>flip coin once
>it's tails
>claim it's just an outlier and my probability of 90% heads is still true
This is Nate Silver defense force's understanding of statistics.

>>76404914
See >>76404980 and consider remedial education.

>>76404962
he's part of the tribe


he probably does jack shit. Just some homo puppet figurehead.

>>76403090

>post-mortem
>thinking this line of dialogue only came up after the election was over

Silver's polling took flack for giving Trump a larger chance than most, and 538 intro'd several articles mentioning said flack long before the election was over. This isn't a case of him pointing back and saying "But I gave him this much of a chance", this is a case of him literally saying it over and over during the event, and then pointing back at it saying "I told you so".

>>76404998
This is not an argument

>>76404914
you should have seen his NFL playoff picks

about as good as selecting randomly (worse actually)


FRAUD

>>76405022
It is, if you understand statistics, which you clearly do not.

>>76402106
wow, what a hot take!

>>76405006
like Bill Nye and Neil DeNigger
over paid figure heads

kids should be trying to be like Mike Rowe

>>76405048
>create a bullshit thought experiment involving jewish conspiracies and tell yourself it proves your point
Not an argument

>>76405089
>basic statistics is a jewish conspiracy
So yeah, you have no idea.

Let me ask you this: who was more "right", Silver who gave Trump 30% odds or HuffPo who gave him <%10 odds and how can you prove it?

>>76405084
yep


just a face to make their bullshit pseudo-science seem respectable

>>76405129
You can't say the probabilities given by either are right or wrong. You can only judge the model they use, and the data that goes into that model.

>>76405172
all science is pseudoscience
college is a huge waste of money
and they should make High school optional like after middle school let kids pick if they just want to work or if they want to finish and get a pointless HS diploma

>>76405201
>college is a huge waste of money
you got that right

>>76405196
Wow, great job anon. You get a gold star.

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I feel bad for the Cavs only have 0.00000000000000000000001% chance to win

>>76402650
>>76402663
You can't say "both sides have a chance" and then take credit for a correct prediction. The only reason anyone even knows Nate Aluminum even exists is because he got 50 out of 50 states correct in the 2012 election. He got 7-8 states wrong this past year

>>76405243
It doesn't mean you can discount nates probabilities just because a populist candidate came out of nowhere to steal the white house

>>76405196
You can't predict elections or sports. Betting companies just rape their customers silly so they dont predict anything either.

>>76405302
It means you can't say shit like "nate was still right lol", which Silver apologists do. You can't prove that. We have one sample. In that one sample he was not right.

>>76405339
But you can say he uses better models then what huffpo used, or whichever one it was that gave hillary a 97% chance of winning

>>76405337
Back when he was one of the first people to talk about advanced stats in sports other than baseball you could get a leg up on some of the lines by reading his analyses, not anymore though.

>>76405417
The """models""" mean fuck all. At the end of the day, they each came up with a probability. You can't possibly prove how good or bad that prediction is off of 1 sample. For all we know, Hillary would win 90/100 times and HuffPo really had the better model.

>>76405486
That would only be true if the outcome of the election was random. If you reheld that election 100 times in the same climate you'd get the same result 100 times. The models are based on polling of various demographic groups, and determining what percentage will vote, and who they will vote for. For huffpo to give hillary a 97% chance of winning they had to have over-represented some groups, and under-represented others. Nate giving trump better odds indicated he did the same but on a lesser degree, which means he used a more accurate model

>>76402831
>being slightly less wrong than all the other wrong people is something to be proud of
Lol ok
>also a ton of people still think Nate said Trump would win 30% of the vote (rather than having a 30% probability of winning)
No one fucking thinks this you lying shill

>>76405614
I'll buy that partially since you took the time to think about it, but there are plenty of random inputs to a model in this case, or any sufficiently complex system, really. One well known example is weather. One bad storm in Philly or Alexandria could've affected turnout enough in swing states to flip them. You can't possibly know what is going to happen, but it's something you can consider in your model.

Nate Tin was called a sexist piece of shit by basically every SJW site on the Internet for saying Trump had such a high chance of winning. Everyone believed HuffPo's 99.9999999% chance it was Hillary's turn.

>>76405674
>no one thinks that
M8 most of your population thinks that dinosaurs roamed the earth recently and the earth is flat.

>>76402650

Seeing as Trump did win it's clear that he had a 100% chance of winning you stupid faggot

>>76402553
Reminder that there were two random guys with a blog (Ryan Faulk and Sean Last) who predicted the rust belt grab in the election using state-level primary turnout correlations and mail-in voting data, and ended up only missing Wisconsin and having Michigan as a toss-up. The polling analyst pundits, including Silver, are a joke.

>>76402793
>>76402650
because it's not a fucking simulation, Trump was always winning and the stat nerds were lying. faggots on /pol/ had it figured it out based on polling samples, so why couldn't this jewbag?

>>76402650
>>76402663
>>76402793
Cool i'm gonna start giving things random percentages of happening as well, i'll never technically be wrong and will be famous like Silver.

>>76406834
what chances I will get laid tonight?

>>76406938
34%

>>76406938
same chance as Cavs winning the title vs the warriors this year

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>>76403194
Mark Twain once said, "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics."