/bet/ mfw i didnt went all in during the 3rd quarter edition

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what happened?

Mfw I didn't put my Leicester winnings on Iceland, Portugal, brexit, Trump, the cubs or the patriots. :(

>>74134614
I know how that feels :(

>FAQ and abbreviations and helpful links
http://pastebin.com/FSvbhnAi

>How to set up fresh 365s
http://imgur.com/U8n8I16

>/bet/ Advice
http://imgur.com/a/NcRrI

>/bet/ approved spreadsheet for tracking your bets
http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/betting-tracker-excel

>Essential Reading
http://pastebin.com/vuwc1vUv

Might as well post this too

Roma
Monchengladbach
MK Wimbledons


Winnings on a muggy darts acca tomorrow most likely.

>>74134614
Federer too

>mfw Feirense was fixed but I don't have any money

How is PGA these days?

Need a discord invite

>>74138382
*laughs*

PGA?

PGA IS MY HOME BROTHER!

PGAAAAAAAAAAA!

PGA, WHERE I FIRST LEARNED HOW TO BET,
MACKERS DROPPING TIPS LIKE HE MAKES THEM GIRLS WET,
LOSES SOME BETS, GOES DOWN A CUNT,
BUT YOU KNOW A MACKERS TIP IS ALWAYS WORHT A PUNT,

TALKING ABOUT MY HOME PGA BROTHER!

THESE OTHER TIPPING GROUPS ARE JUST FAKE,
MACKERS DROP YOU AND MAKE YOU SHAKE,
FUCK ALL YOU HOES TRYING TO EAT MY BANKROLL,
DONT MAKE ME MAD OR ILL PUT YOU IN THE HOLE,

SO SO SHREWD, HE IS SO SO SHREWD

HIS NAME IS MACKERS, HE WILL LEAD US TO RICHES
ALL OF HIS FUCKING HATERS, ARE SCARED LITTLE BITCHES!

Vocaroo yourself rapping this and you'll get it

>>74138567
Suck your mum

>>74138382
Just join PGA, the only reason you should have been on /bet/ is to shitpost. Discord is shit 'banter' all day long and tips available in other groups

>>74140468

Its the same banter that was posted in /bet/ before without the jani banning us all for it. Plus its tips from groups you have to pay for so I'm not really sure why you'd complain

Am I the only one not in the discord then?

>>74141158
https://discord.gg/cS6Dz

>>74141471
>>74141645
Thanks

>>74133311
what were the odds during the 3rd quarter?

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/bet/ is back

>>74141778
I read somewhere that the falcons were 98-99% to win 25 points up so probably massive

>>74141821

I had already bet before the game on the pats

at the third quarter I had accepted I lost
the money

then history happened

so uh

i lost my job and i'm a student

thinking about betting

is this a poor idea

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fucks sake lads. i leave for a month and the thread fucking dies.

let's share our superb owl betting histories. I'll start.

>>74143004
what happened to /bet/ why is it so dead? brits too booty blasted to post here any more?

>>74143793

Everyone moved to discord.

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>mfw Brady gifted me $200

what was the moneyline at half time?

>>74144076
>when you put 1000 on a cavaliers clippers parlay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHQFPBiY81I

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THE STATE OF /BET/ RIGHT NOW OH MY GOD

discord link lads?

Can't wait for next week lads some BIG bets to be had

>>74147548
care to elaborate?

>>74147863
Don't really want the discord stealing the value but news shouldn't break for a while so I'll share then

>>74142941
Yes.

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ladbrokes 2.35 ldlc for both maps

>>74142941
Sell Euan your accounts

>>74147894

Morecambe going into administration?

>>74145929
Cloud 9 was such nice value. Did anyone here get on at 3.5?

>>74145929
BEARS IS DOING IT

>>74149257
JUST

How do you cheer yourself up after a bad beat /bet/?

Normally I would fuck a bitch. But I'm going through a bit of a drought, no bitches ready for plowing at the moment for me.

Please help, how will I ever recover?!?!!?

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What do you reckon to this, /bet/? I'm tempted to literally invest all I have in it, because it just seems so certain. The age of being thwarted by silly lefties is over, and he's been invited, so why wouldn't he come?

>>74151398
The definition of a "state visit" is different to an "official visit" only 2 US presidents have ever had a "state visit".

>>74151457
that's exactly the kind of shit that I feared when putting all in on trump, it said to win the presidency but didn't specify if I was going to wait until the electoral vote or until he was sworn in, luckily I woke up with the money in my account

>>74151072
Get a Somalian prostitute

What's an acceptable starting roll for a bubblegum bookie?

Discord invite?

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Whatsup lads

put a 1000$ down on pats was shitting myself through 2nd and 3rd quater

discord invite pls

I think it's only euan or juve who can add you guys

>>74156592
pls

I know /bet/ is on the verge of dying, but now that I have finally quit the wage-slaving life I thought I would give a little update. After the first three months of using my model I came to the conclusion that finding value bets is just what it does best. They make up the largest part of the profit and that is why I adjusted the model accordingly. 8 months and 3500 bets after creating my model I now cover 200 leagues/divisions/groups and sit at a very presentable 24% ROI - and that is including leagues where I know it needs improvement. Just going by SW it gets 36% right at average odds of 3.53, including 0.0 and + Handicaps its accuracy is just over 64%. I did it. I sincerely hope everyone else here or on the Discord is doing well, too.

>>74158509
great to hear Fritz
you made it

>>74158509
How long are your accounts lasting?

>>74156803
>Juve with any sort of admin power

PSML "no"

>>74158509
>very presentable 24% ROI
That is god tier and leads me to believe it is unsustainable. Be cautious Fritz.

>>74158509
On you come Pinhead son. Welcome to the dark side

https://discord.gg/uUHmV

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hey guys, how do you win money at gambling? Is this a good bet?

>>74159375
>le cashout man

>>74158509
yeah i had one month like that. i was the king of the world

>>74158509

mind if i ask what are the features of you model?
goals at home/away, last 5 games, etc etc

bumpppppp

throw us an invite then

>>74133311
>i didnt went all in

The people who taught you English should be should be shot.

>>74165086
https://discord.gg/CPyWe

>>74165107
expired la

>>74165577
How do I invite?

>>74168203

You got the mobile app? Tap on the server /bet/ then before you select a channel it'll have "Create an Invite" at the top

Only janis can create invites
https://discord.gg/h4wsF
Get in here if you're not a cunt

>>74158918
I find that when I use the bubblegums for SW bets (on teams priced as underdogs) only, they last fairly long. I assume that is because it simply takes longer to be consistently profitable. With the Asian Handicaps some accounts lasted as little as 5 bets, but the only real problem is when I happen to be on bets that are also tipped by the big groups.

>>74160487
At its core it is a point based ranking model using rather recent historical data - really just the standard data you would expect (but not from 2 seasons ago or something that old) and yes, I take recent form into account, but it is weighted differently than overall, H/A results. I don't use Poisson Distribution (or teams att / def strength) like some conventional models. You can think of it a bit like Elo, meaning that teams earn or lose points based on their results, except in my model each league has a point cap and how far each team is away from that cap determines their rank (for home and away games individually). How many points a team earns e.g. for a win depends on their opponent, but also on league h/d/a averages (away win in leagues with big home advantage count more, etc.). The basic prediction indicates how much of an advantage one team has over the other and I can use that to calculate the probabilities of the different outcomes. Things like goal difference are only taken into account after the prediction was made (it's one of 5 last checks). It compares my odds with the bookies, calculates the EV and that's what ultimately determines whether it's a bet or not. The staking system is based on the Kelly Criterion, but because of the rather big number of bets I define a percentage of my bankroll for all bets combined and each bet is then staked with its share of that amount. That's really just a measure to reduce massive up- or downswings.

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>>74134581

HE HAD TO TRANSFORM BACK INTO MORTAL FORM

Dubs and hull get a point

>>74169474
One more time

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I'm going to revive /bet/.

>>74170687
then tip something you dolt

give us a tip

>>74170761

Already gave my tip to your mum last night.

>>74170776
but she's not a punter

>>74170715

Envy>Dignitas LCS NA 1/10 @3.03 Paddypower

>>74170915
is this esports

>>74170922

Nah AFL m8

>Was about to get on united -1
>goal

>>74171106
>Was about to get on Germany 7-1
>goal

>>74171145
Shit, what made you think it would be 7-1? Those odds would of been ridiculous even at 1-0

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lmao!

Is there anyone here who is consistently able to execute arbitrage strategies?
If so, how do you do it? Do you just take the best odds from different bookmakers (which ones)?

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Tfw when mugging for weeks with no end in sight, a couple hundred in the hole, and one of the muggiest finally hits

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>he's not on Macron

can't stop topping, won't stop either, my banker keeps calling me, i just blocked his number.

ARP surreal

> defending champions are @6.5 to win against fucking swansea city

SURELY this is a mainstream special

>>74169160
nice, i'm trying to use machine learning in a similar way

>>74165106
Dont be a fag

>>74177066
>0 staked

zzz

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I just bet most my roll on the Clippers @ Hornets. How fucked am I ?

>>74178028
Pmsl no, BARCELONA -1 Asian is 3+, THATS your special

>>74178028
They're also in the 3s if you're getting 6+ take the 1.5/2 handicap you'd be getting

If someone punched hass in the face could you technically call that smashing an Asian handicap?

>>74178454
:)

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nunawading +1.25 @1.9 bet365 small

Wtb?

Imagine being a chess playing, cricket watching Indian.

>>74192426
imagine being uac

>>74133311
anyone knows the odds for betting on patriots to win after the third quarter?
I was thinking to bet 10€ on that but was too sleepy for that shit. Now regret it big times. Sad!

>>74192753
~50

:(

I should've bet the house on everything patriots

fucking idiots taking the falcons lmao

wtb?

>>74208100

IBT on Valur m8

>>74134581
he had to use THAT POWER

>>74202816
what's the context

>>74208276
Just posting to show discord which doesn't have the facility to play webms, was a game last year where guy had a seizure on his debut and game was delayed for about 10 mins.

NEED CORNERS

Also /bet/ is ded

>>74209281
It's been dead, not sure why someone made a thread.

>>74209347
do people even post bets anymore? I miss summer desu, tipster tube, calling juve a smelly paki, tennis tipster, uwi blackbirds and that fella who would always do over 3.5s on the yank footie that would sometimes come in

>>74209397

Yeah but just in the Discord

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>>74209430
I've never bothered download discord, what's it like? Are the bets actually decent or is it just shitposting?

>>74209475
Bets are ok
Banter is shite, I prefer the thread but I'm probably the minority

>>74209696
>I'm probably the minority
H-Hass?

Nba tips for tonight?

>>74209475
bets are better now than they were in any /bet/ thread

threads so much comfier though

>>74209797
pmsl

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other than toras, who are the top pay4tip tipsters right now? IBT seems good, but he's too expensive for the remaining 1,4 months now.

how's mackers doing?

Give me one reason you're not large on Barcelona -0.25? I know it's because you hate making money

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The party I was at, the host actually did this. Didn't win as much as you'd think, he broke even i think cause he lost a bunch of prop bets

>>74213778
resubbed pga since i had nothing else to do

Need a discord invite lads

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What happened to /bet/?

Used to have fun posting and obscure tips.

>ctr + f "tears"
>Phrase not found
>ctr + f "albania"
>Phrase not found

>>74175029
what is the context here?

>>74216387
discord

Just dabbed in the bathroom. No one else saw it. pmsl

>>74216777

Just dabbed in the discord. Everyone saw it and reacted with the clapping emoji.

>>74216777
nice :)

>>74216387
everyone went to the discord, which is a bad thing.

>>74141778

Pats to win

5/1 at half time
12/1 3rd quarter
4/1 with 4 minutes left
1/2 OT

>>74220946
send us a discord invite lad

>>74220946

People left cause the janitor used to hand out 3 day bans for even the slightest glimmer of off-topic.

>>74222363
First you have to prove you are shrewdie. To do that post a winning bet paying evens at least

How should I approach basketball betting? Any tips?

>>74169160
I'm honestly sick of working my day job, and where I live there is not much room for job growth. I wish I could do what you do my man. Haha

Right, everyone fuck up.
Lots of free money to be made with a free bet for Arsenal v Bayern

Mug Bets

>0.5FH Goals @ £50
>BTTS Bayern to win inplay @ £50

Shrewd Bets
>Sanchez anytime
>BTTS Arsenal to win
>Over 2.5 goals - DRAW
>All the players to have a nice time

>>74229506


>betting on arsenil to score
enjoy your no profit

>>74229506
I'm going either 3-1 or 3-0 to Bayern. Still undecided. I forgot I left a fucking deposit limit on my 365 account though. Fucking kill me. I can only add £25.

>>74227507
I know next to nothing about the sport, but every time I've bet on overs at the start of a quarter it has come in. It seems like free money.

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post your face when your bet is suspended

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>>74233613