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Searching historic hurricane tracks, mainly those that strike Cuba, for similarities to Irma. There aren't many. Most originate in the southern Caribbean, or have more southerly origins in the east Atlantic. Probably the closest I could find was Ike, which would be really bad news for the area devastated by Harvey.
No one at NOAA is publicly guessing about Irma's track after the five-day models. Storms that follow her track are few and far between.
The only difference between Irma and Ike are the periods of original intensification. Ike developed more rapidly in the first three days. Otherwise, they are a match. Again, there are very few that follow this track.
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Cont'd ... the reason these tracks are so rare is that a storm originating that far north off the coast of Africa will generally stay in the Atlantic, often off the coast of the US before spiraling northeast.
What happened with Ike and Irma was an area of shear that drove them back southwestward into warmer waters, where they reintensified before striking land, then intensifying again in the warm Gulf waters. They never were Caribbean storms.
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>>9149050
But bear in mind that the future track of a hurricane is not much impacted by it's past track -- it doesn't carry much momentum forward. Fronts and the Jetstream and other steering forces are much more important.
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>>9149064
Irma is closer to the path followed by Hurricane Donna from what I can tell, down to the exact date even.
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Is it possible to calculate the potential storm surge height based on current speed and pressure?
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>>9151141
It would be possible to calculate the storm surge based on on pressure. To figure out the potential storm surge as it comes ashore,, you'd need pressure, speed and details about the sea bottom/shoreline profile where the storm comes in.
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>>9151366
I saw estimate for 889mb and 166mph with landfall on the very tip of FL.
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>>9149050
Wind patterns should spare Texas another hit. This time, it'll be Florida, after skirting the Caribbeans.
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>>9149050
What are the chances of this hitting Louisiana?
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>>9149050
press F
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The eye should miss Florida.
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>>9149890
This.
Donna is probably the best analogue for Irma. Sadly, it's likely to be stronger when it landfalls here in Miami. I'm expecting another Andrew-strength storm. The NHC is likely conservative in its intensity forecast 5 days out, since the THCP in the basin is highest right now between the Bahamas and Florida. It's a cauldron that a cyclone with no shear or dry air will absolutely lap up.
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>>9149050
Jesus Christ will it hit Houston again?
TEXANS ALREADY HAVE NO GAS, PEOPLE PANIC AND DRAIN THE RESERVES.
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>>9153227
No.
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It's official Barbuda is dead /sci/.
abcnews.go.com/amp/International/hurricane-irma-destroys-90-percent-structures-vehicles-barbuda/story%3fid=49665358
Press F for the Antiguan racer snake species as it's critically endangered and endemic to the island Irma just hit.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiguan_racer
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>>9153357
F ;_;
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>strongest ever storm and none of the relatively low-population islands are evacuated
>climate change producing ever stronger storms and there is no protocol or a few large cruise ships docked at all times in case of storms like this
I don't understand this. At all.
Thread posts: 18
Thread images: 7
Thread images: 7