End of Humanity

>>9003888
In 4 years
>Max computational power reached
>Tight oil supplies cause medicine, plastics, and other petrochemical shortages
>Economy in ruins from the bust of the VLSI bubble, subsequent lack of innovation, material shortages, and taxes from economical wars.
>Historic global depression and unemployment which leads to widespread banking and business failures
>Terrorism explodes
>Extreme weather and land erosion dislocates countless number of people
>Loss of all privacy with increases in population monitoring, spying, and tracking
>Internet traffic becomes monitored, censored, and activism is stifled

In 10 years
>Unprecedented crop failures
>Large scale food, water, ore, and oil shortages
>War everywhere
>Lack of clean water, medicine, and sterile plastics goods cause global pandemics
>Ethnic strife and massive increase in genocides

In 24 years
>Nuclear and Biological weapon proliferation
>Large rise in random acts of killings
>Behavioral sink kicks in
>Effort to force peace by the formation of a Global Government by surviving NATO powers begins, those opposed are mercilessly dealt with.
>Increased Atheism and Nihilism
>WWIII begins

In 42 years
>WWIII ends
>Extinction of the human race

In 43 years
>Jesus returns

Denoting by N the total number of humans who were ever or will ever be born, the Copernican principle suggests that humans are equally likely (along with the other N - 1 humans) to find themselves at any position n of the total population N, so humans assume that our fractional position f = n/N is uniformly distributed on the interval [0, 1] prior to learning our absolute position. f is uniformly distributed on (0, 1) even after learning of the absolute position n. That is, for example, there is a 95% chance that f is in the interval (0.05, 1), that is f > 0.05. In other words, we could assume that we could be 95% certain that we would be within the last 95% of all the humans ever to be bien. If we know our absolute position n, this implies an upper bound for N obtained by rearranging n/N > 0.05 to give N < 20n. 60 billion humans have been born so far, so it can be estimated that here is a 95% chance that the total number humans N will be less than 20 x 60 billion = 1.2 trillion. Assuming the world population stabilizes at 10 billion and a life expectancy of 80 years, it can be estimated that the remaining 1140 billion humans will be born in 9120 years. So there is a 95% chance of extinction within 9,120 years.

>>9003905
Humanity wouldn't survive to any degree?>>9003907
You're assuming we never leave the planet/solar system?

>>9003918

I'm not assuming that. I'm just making a probabilistic argument. I'm also assuming as a reference class biologically modern humans, so I'm leaving out our close ancestors as well as any non-human descendants we might have.

>>9003922
Could you please elaborate on what humanity would have to do to significantly skew your probability to increase the end result to approximately 100,000 years?

File: renegadeshep.jpg (134KB, 1680x1050px) Image search: [Google]

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Arguably around 30th April 1945.

>>9003968
Your math is weak sir

File: drake.png (871KB, 719x761px) Image search: [Google]

871KB, 719x761px

>>9003888
Humanity will end as soon as you finish reading this post.

How do I know? Well, consider that humanity could potentially end at any moment, albeit with a very low probability. Let's define the chance that humanity will end in the next planck second as [math]\Omega ^{-1}[/math], where [math]\Omega[/math] is some arbitrarily large number.
The chance that humanity will survive the next planck second is [math]1 - \Omega ^{-1}[/math].
The chance that humanity will survive the next n planck seconds is [math](1 - \Omega ^{-1})^n[/math]
The limit of [math](1 - \Omega ^{-1})^n[/math] as n tends to infinity is 0, so it's trivially obvious that humanity cannot last forever.

And now part 2: deciding the value for omega.
Omega can be arbitrarily large (read: arbitrarily small). Therefore, for any [math](1 - \Omega ^{-1})^n[/math] = 0 for some Omega and some n, I could also assert a different [math](1 - \omega ^{-1})^N[/math] = 0 with a different omega and a different n. The choices for this different n and omega are just as "valid" as the first choice.

So since we can conclude that any value for omega is valid, and any n is valid (or at least as valid as any other choice for such values) let [math]\Omega = 1[/math]. Therefore, humanity will end in the next planck second, presumably as soon as you finish reading this post.

If you don't want humanity to end I suggest you continuously reread the post for the duration of your natural life. Your sacrifice will be appreciated. Do not read the next sentence, as completing the post could result in the end of all of us.

Whew, I guess we dodged a bullet there, huh.

>>9003888
Nuclear wars, epidemics, shortages, they all can kill even billions of people, but not everyone.
We will never go extinct.

Despite what governments say, we do not have enough firepower to kill all of humanity. There are just too many cities and rural areas and not enough ABC weapons and capable psychopaths willing to use them.

Let us kill humans slowly then. Make the uneducated ones suffer from malnutrition and deseases, let the smart ones be distracted and loosing their soul in virtual worlds. Let the genders believe they are opponents, reverse the natural gender roles, spread hate and mischief among the haves and havenones and promote the idea that atheism is progress.