Fermi Paradox

>>8945609
Somewhere, probably.

In the last place you'd think to look at: Earth.

>>8945630
>Somewhere, probably.
Not a good answer. You are dumb. Post less please.

>>8945643
>>>/lit/ is that way

>>8945609
Space is fuck huge and attenuation is a real bitch.

/thread

>>8945647
>huge
That's not the problem though. The bigger the space, the greater the chance of finding life.

Problem is that there's nothing out there.

>>8945645
>You are dumb.
Fine I'll give you the real answer.
Resources are finite.

Aliens are either:
content
non-existent
dead
can't get close enough to C for visiting certain star systems to be reasonable
busy visiting/mining other star systems
rare enough to be a few (simultaneously) per galaxy and intergalactic travel is generally recognized to be fruitless.

>>8945658
none of your "solutions" explain that we don't see anything out there.

>>8945660
I don't know, rarity and/or radio stayed a meme seem like pretty good explanations to me.

>>8945657
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olbers%27s_paradox

>Problem is that there's nothing out there.
At best that statement only applies to this galaxy.

File: worldleadervintage2.jpg (264KB, 1272x1600px) Image search: [Google]

264KB, 1272x1600px

>>8945609
The Fermi "Paradox", the idea that the Universe is so big that intelligent life exists out of Earth, and ... that the Universe is also so big that we will never meet each other. Woah, what a Paradox

Maybe there just hasn't been enough time for hyper-advanced civilizations to form

Yeah I know it's been a few billions years but it took a few billion years for humans to pop up and of all the millions upon millions of species that have been on Earth, we've been the only ones capable of civilization

If there are any intelligent aliens in our galaxy, it is unlikely that they would visit us. Assuming they have the ability to travel between stars, they are more advanced than we are and we aren't going to be answering any mysteries of the universe for them. Furthermore, any material wealth they could get here, they could just as easily get elsewhere without potentially having to deal with uppity primitives.

If they are more advanced than us, we are also unlikely to pick up their radio transmissions because 1.) they are so far away that the SNR on anything they sent early on is below detection threshold and 2.) they, like us, got really good at not wasting energy spewing signals all over the place and instead use directed transmissions (Earth is dimming as a radio source due to better directed transmissions). So, how are we supposed to see them?

Another problem with Fermi's paradox is that the universe has a finite age with a rather limited time frame in which the elements necessary for advanced life have existed. Compound this with the massive distances involved and the sheer number of stars, it is highly unlikely that we would find anyone out there unless we did a highly detailed radio survey of every single star in the galaxy, and that still requires that we aren't the most advanced people in the galaxy (there is literally no reason this couldn't be the case) and that we all discovered radio transmission at the right time for the transmissions to have made it far enough to matter.

>>8945657
There's a difference between likelihood of life and likelihood of finding life.

File: 446-pure-math-vs-applied-math.png (39KB, 473x226px) Image search: [Google]

39KB, 473x226px

>>8945657
Real world math just doesn't add up to your fairy tale math. I'll repeat.

Space is fuck huge and attenuation is a real bitch.

Every single signal from earth will never reach any planet outside the solar system and still remain intelligible enough to even be recognized as something that came from an intelligent source even if you on/off the signal to do binary. In order to signal other planets out there you need massive amounts of power. As in using the entire sun as a fucking lighthouse by blocking light in the direction of the target planet and banging out binary. Anything less power than a solar lighthouse just won't cut through the attenuation problem.

>>8945609
Maybe there has been time for plenty of super-enlightened and advanced species to evolve, but it turns out that we are actually on to something when we talk about the speed of light being an absolute speed limit and there just isn't any way around that what with warp drives or wormholes are anything. Maybe there are actually a bajillion hyper-intelligent species in the universe and they figured out shit on their home planet and they will never exist anywhere else.

>>8945657
Actually no, the bigger the space is, there more shit you have to look through in order to even hope to find something. Do you know how little we have actually looked? The only exoplanets that we have cataloged are relatively nearby, and we haven't come close to cataloging even a percent of the number of planets that are likely within that range. Why haven't we found life? We are fucking working on it.

File: 1472517358983.png (236KB, 525x268px) Image search: [Google]

236KB, 525x268px

Is it possible for Type II and III civilizations to hide themselves?

>>8945787
If darkbmatter is a thing maybe advanced civilizations hide from one another using a dark matter cloak around their shit.

>>8945808
I have a feeling we'll never figure out what darkmatter is. I've read a bunch of papers recently and physicists eliminated almost all rangers for possible darkmatter particle energies. There's very little range left. I'm pessimistic that DM particles are in those slivers of unexplored spaces.

I wonder how badly the physics will stagnate for the next 20 years.,.. unless the AI takes over physics research.

>>8945821
If you have an error in your modeling and have crossed out all the possible clarifications, your model is just wrong.

Physics will only stagnate of physicists decide they're okay with being just wrong and doing it anyway

>>8945867
ST is just a giant dead-end. It's a black hole for research right now. Nothing will change until ST heavyweights die off.

>>8945677
>>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olbers%27s_paradox
that's a pretty shitty paradox. You can explain it with light cones and observable universe.

File: back-to-pol.jpg (35KB, 490x290px) Image search: [Google]

35KB, 490x290px

>>8945609
>Redpill me
gtfo pill-popping /pol/esmoker

>>8945977
It is a normie phrase now used by everyone.

>>8945977
>thinks 4chan board communities are different
fuck off back to plebbit

>>8945670
With the huge potential for varience between species you can't assume that anything would be "rare"

>>8946016
Haha you've successfully outted yourself. You have to go back

intelligent life is probably so rare that they are fucking around in a different galaxy altogether, far beyond any distance we could ever travel or communicate

>>8946431
>so rare
Why would be rare?

>>8946452
Why would be common? [sic]

>>8945609
liteyears away

>>8946456
because of statistics.

>>8946452
because you need to have literally a million things happen exactly right for there to be any chance of life at all and there have been millions and millions of species and we are the only ones who created civilization

>>8946525
Millions of planets, billions of years for evolution to do its thing.

Life is not rare at all.

>>8946534
wrong
according to everything we know it's probably incredibly rare
and intelligence is not some kind of evolutionary goal, it's literally an accident, one path out of infinite

>>8946549
>according to everything we know it's probably incredibly rare
That's absolutely not true. We're finding life on earth in all kinds of "inhospitable" places. Life can be found in pretty much any place on Earth. That's amazing.

Life is not rare.

>>8945609
Hiding inside of Dyson spheres that create a more appealing simulation for them than sensory reality.

>>8946549
Unless of course the universe is simply a fractal of Boltzmann Brains.

>>8946549
>according to everything we know
>thinking we know anything

>>8946564
it's likely we're already a simulation ourselves, and most of our lives aren't very appealing at all.

>>8946558
>on earth

>>8946599
nobody said that except you

>>8946603
I pointed out that our matrix of sensory input is already a simulated reality, but advanced species have probably found ways to hack it so they don't have to deal with external physical stimuli.

What if the only feasible method of space travel is through a frequency of light we have not been able to detect yet, so there's aliens warping all around the sky and we see nothing

Until there's at least one big ass telescope somewhere between here and saturn's orbit and preferably dedicated to looking for the correct thing its somewhat pointless to ask about ayys.
There should have been moon bases and scopes there by now, alas.

>>8945702
That's one possible answer noob

>>8946558
Why did you not finish the last assertion with "on earth" as you did the others?

>>8945787
Think about computers or DNA manipulation, they don't need much energy.
An advanced civilization could have no interest for all that energy, but it would have been difficult to understand by someone from the 70's.

>>8946549
>according to everything we know it's probably incredibly rare
The only thing we (almost) know for certain is that billions of earth-like planets exist.
All the rest is pure speculation, yours included.

>>8946534
Unless the odds are 1 in a couple trillion. The fermi paradox is faulty. It doesn't know what the odds of intelligent life are, so it cannot claim that absence of life is a paradox.

>>8945609
>where are they?
The (((chosen among the alliens))) pushed the lesser hordes to the top of society in a struggle for equality and the scientific development stopped.

>>8946611
>What if the only feasible method of space travel is through a frequency of light we have not been able to detect yet, so there's aliens warping all around the sky and we see nothing
Hmm... that's against known laws of physics.

>>8946947
>fermi paradox is faulty
... or maybe we're in a simulation.

>>8945787
Why is the jump from 2 to 3 so high holy shit

>>8945787
Is it even possible to become type 1? If any kind of FTL travel becomes possible, it will be easier to just go to multiple planets than to try to maximize a single one. Harnessing all the resources of a single planet would just be an engineering exercise by that point.

>>8947132
it's a meme scale anyway
2 and 3 are literal fiction

>>8945702
Except even with the universe being huge we should be able to detect them if they exist anywhere in the observable universe.

>>8945609
fuck man, if you just go to kikepedia and look at their page on it, it lists most of what any of us would say

I'll add what I think is the most likely reason: Technology advances very quickly. All this time with life on earth, and we only started getting tech a few 10k's ago, and only in the past 100 years or so has their been anything that gets out into space. In another 100 years, we might be long post-singularity, and we literally can't know what we'll be like after that, and therefor any aliens who are post-singularity probably won't be recognizable either. Consider that an ant crawling around in your house has zero conception of what a house or a human being is, likewise we might be all around aliens and just not have the brains to realize it.

>>8948190
okay, how do you send message to ayys billion light years from here

>>8948576
or detect them, whatever dude

>>8945609
Humans are gods chosen children, aliens don't exist

File: 1476452925218.jpg (303KB, 1128x1504px) Image search: [Google]

303KB, 1128x1504px

>>8945609
There are many possible doomsday scenarios which can easily end a civilisation.
-climate change
-thermonuclear war
-deadly viruses
-degeneration
-voting for retards as president
- etc.
Or they just are happy at home.

There is only one narrow winding path to become an galactic empire. See it positive. We got the chance to be the first. So we better be smart and don't screw up.

File: 1495554379545.jpg (50KB, 900x619px) Image search: [Google]

50KB, 900x619px

OP's pic is from The Dark Forest (one of the best sci-fi novels in the last 10 years or more) and in it the author explains the idea of 'dark forest' and proposes a solution to Fermi Paradox.

I think it's by far the most logical explanation for it.

Read this:
http://whatever.scalzi.com/2014/11/11/the-big-idea-liu-cixin/

Why is encryption never mentioned when talking about the search for extraterrestrial intelligence? The time between humanity using radio in a large scale and most of that traffic being encrypted (and indistinguishable from natural noise) is close to just a century. That alone would make the window for detecting intelligent life from Earth incredibly short.

>>8948634
>(one of the best sci-fi novels in the last 10 years or more)
Hm
I read The Three Body Problem and it was pretty shit, people on /lit/ are saying to read the Dark Forest though and it's supposedly much better than the first part of the trilogy.
But I'm not sure if I'll ever read it.

>>8949769
TDF is much better than TBP. It should have been one book but I'm happy it was split in 2.

Anyway, definitely the best sci-fi series I read in the last 10 years (and I read almost all of the Hugo Prize winners and nominees.

>>8948632
We've covered everything besides nuclear war but the right wingers are trying their best to remedy that.

>>8945645
>not a good answer

Actually, it's a perfectly good answer.

>>8945609
The Fermi """"""paradox""""""is the most unfounded asspull of all time. You know that your dealing with a peanut baby bird brain when they want to discuss its implications in earnest, as if it had any grounding to observed reality whatsoever.
>>8946947
This.

>>8945609
all alien life in the known universe is up my ass

>>8945987
>a normie phrase
gtfo normie

>>8949722
100 million stars in that patch... minimum.

>>8947129
because the jump from 1 to 2 is just as massive

>>8947132
>>8947223
t. uninspired brainlets

a k2 is literally just a swarm of solar collectors all around a star
a k3 is those solar collectors around every star
it is entire possible to get to every star in the galactic supercluster at sublight speeds, it naturally takes a long ass time to do, but life extension tech could make such wait times meaningless

>>8945787
More likely is that they will be near abundant energy sources, perhaps near the centre of galaxies, where stars and black holes are closer together. These are places that we would consider as too hostile for our idea of primitive life.

>>8947129
The idea is if you have the capacity to harness the majority of power from one star, you then have essentially enough power to keep doing it ad-infinitum. You've got the power to strip your entire star system of resources, build generation ships or automated factories and shoot them off to other solar systems where they'll replicate the same so on and so forth.

File: sniff.png (314KB, 720x480px) Image search: [Google]

314KB, 720x480px

>>8948634
Dark Forest theory is definitely the best explanation for the Fermi Paradox, an explanation I hope isn't true...

Have you read Death's End yet? Holy shit. I was not ready for that...

>>8945609
The paradox doesn't know the odds of life to state what the deal is honestly BUT I'll run with it.

>We are the first
>The Halo Array had to be fired to keep the intergalactic Jew at bay 65 million years ago.
>Our multi-billion light year section of the universe is actually new and we lack the technology to see what's really going on: we are too juvenile to have the technology requires to see far into space where the others are.
>That enormous cold spot is actually the void left by a civilization that used all its energy to hop to a different universe that isn't at risk of heat death.

>>8952341
>That enormous cold spot is actually the void left by a civilization that used all its energy to hop to a different universe that isn't at risk of heat death.
Thanks for the book idea non, I'll give you 1% of the profits.

>>8946034
Learn 2 evolutionary biology n00b.

>>8952264
>Have you read Death's End yet? Holy shit. I was not ready for that...
I'm 1/4 in (reading the Gravity chase after that starship right now). I've been told it's the best of the three... pls don't spoil it for me.

>>8945609
Underneath the ice of Enceladus and Europa

>>8952481
>I've been told it's the best of the three... pls don't spoil it for me.
It is. No spoilers here.

When I said "that" I meant the entire book. Liu Cixin is brilliant.
Have fun!

>>8952001
stop meming
it's a lot more than "swarm"
you can mine the whole system empty to make them and you'll still be nowhere close to collecting all the energy from the sun

>>8945609
Their African equivalent filtered them out.

A civilization capable of space-flight would have conquered most natural selective processes and also have a predisposition to cooperation and some level of altruism/some other instinct to help their fellow being. This means that the dumbest and aggressive would breed enough to bring down the average forever.

>>8952591
Thanks anon!

>Liu Cixin is brilliant.
No doubt there. He surprised me at almost every step and his level of strategic and scientific thinking is excellent. I hope he writes something new and I hope it doesn't take 4+ years to translate it to English.

As for his resolution of Fermi Paradox, I think it's true because it makes perfect sense. It's game theory afterall.

File: maxresdefault (28).jpg (91KB, 1280x720px) Image search: [Google]

91KB, 1280x720px

>>8945787
Doing a real shit job at it tbqh.

>>8953015
I still think it's just comets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uY65P4Klkbw

File: 1409209578623.png (118KB, 416x281px) Image search: [Google]

118KB, 416x281px

>>8945609
Probably living in some kind of weird alien sexual matrix. Opting out of reality for a virtual utopia is a legitimate strategy and I don't want to hear from anyone who tells me it isn't.

>>8951924
Odds of life on any one star is one in a trillion, though. It's a once in a galaxy thing.

>>8953163
>Odds of life on any one star is one in a trillion, though. It's a once in a galaxy thing.
What do you base your odds on?

>>8945609
well the light bubble of our radio signals into space is relatively small, so they might not know were here. also the first transmission we sent into space is Hitler's speech at the Berlin Olympics, sonthey might just not want to associate with us. there could be a star trek style non interventionist clause as part of the galactic government or deep space travel may be impossible.

>>8946916
an advanced civilization would have no need for energy.

no need for the only thing that can locally reverse entropy by highly organized and sophisticated structures

>>8953138
Nah I wouldn't want to "start over" like this, if I did some VR shit I'd opt to keep my memories

Light speed is very slow compared to interstellar distances. Assuming warp drives won't ever work the probability of finding other civilizations is small.

>>8945609

Any advanced civilization in this galaxy can see Earth and knows it is a planet with complex life. You cannot hide something like that.

Any advanced civilization in this galaxy can easily build a huge laser and point it towards the general vicinity of the solar system. We ought to see their signals by now.

Fermi paradox is a genuine paradox and the most logical solution is that we are alone in this galaxy (or even this local group of galaxies).

File: drake equation.png (611KB, 1339x579px) Image search: [Google]

611KB, 1339x579px

>>8953169
A generous 50-50 chance that the 50 most basic filters to intelligent life are passed. I say intelligent life because that's the only kind you can detect without going to a planet to confirm it. That's important to the fermi paradox because a potential solution to it is that life is common, but we can't detect it since it's non-complex or dumb, and unintelligent life doesn't exactly broadcast its position (literally). The filters used include factors owing to a habitable solar system, a habitable planet, the evolution of prokaryotes, eukaryotes, ect. The probability of success is 1 in 0.5^50, assuming the odds average to 50% each. That's a big number. Enough for a couple galaxies of stars. Ours is a relatively big galaxy, however. We should see intelligent life form around just one star, assuming the odds are close to reality.

But we don't know the true odds. You can't calculate the statistics when you've only seen something happen once. You just know it's not especially common or that you haven't looked for repeat events hard enough/long enough. This is just an exercise to show how fast cumulative probability can get very big or very small and how that can explain why the fermi paradox may in fact not be a paradox at all. If the odds of each filter being passed averages to 33%, then life is a once in a universe event because you get a number bigger than all the stars in the observable universe. On the other hand, if the odds of each filter being passed are around 66%, then civilisations would number in hundreds per galaxy. Cumulative probably is like that.

I recommend Issac Arthur's big ass video on the femi paradox if you want to understand my line of thinking more. He lists every filter that should need to be passed for life to get to our point, then uses the same kind of calculation that I have to give examples of how varied the odds could be.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDPj5zI66LA

>>8953570
How do you know you didn't want to? How do you know your real self hasn't decided to go into an ancestor simulation for a laugh and agreed to have his or her pre-existing memories temporarily removed before going in? You'll never know until you die.

File: fermi_orig.jpg (74KB, 713x627px) Image search: [Google]

74KB, 713x627px

>>8946558
>We're finding life on earth in all kinds of "inhospitable" places. Life can be found in pretty much any place on Earth. That's amazing.

Life is not rare.

A more correct statement would be carbon based life is not rare, the only other traces of life we've observed have been silicone based life. The life we do observe that survives in hostile environments have been only extremophile archaea real rudimentary life, tardigrades are the closest thing to intelligent life and their again rudimentary animals the only thing notable about them is their size in microbiology.

>>8946611
lolno

It's near impossible to actually think of making a predictable model for this shit, this shits as reputable as astrology. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry
Your even more fucked when trying to predict intelligence of species as well, this "paradox" is a meme.

>>8945821
God I hope your depressing prediction isn't true mang I wan to be in my 80s when interstellar space travel picks up and we use the mass relay to travel in between systems while simultaneously using dark matter to levitate niggers around.

>>8949656
I remember that one time scientists thought Saturns rings oscillating were a message from ET kek.

>>8946034
Lul Asexual life is the most common do you even biology? Asexual reproduction is more promising than sexual because of the sheer ability to reproduce at fast rates, it doesn't matter if you lack genetic diversity to overcome a pathogen if there's 1000 offspring.

ITT: actually interesting shit for once though this paradox is a meme it seems to evoke a lot of deep bullshit or otherwise science related topics which take from all sects of science.

This boards made a bit of a comeback me thinks.

>>8953722
>build a huge laser
>for no purpose
>most logical

>>8953805
>Asexual reproduction is more promising than sexual.

Wrong. This should be obvious just from looking at how successful it is and the variety of complex life sexual reproduction has achieved. It also speeds up evolution. Things will start as asexual, but once sexual comes along, it explodes and takes over.

Fermi Paradox is based off human arrogance

If they are advanced enough to be zipping around in space, Why the fuck WOULD we be able to see them or know where they are?

>>8946549
It's what humans like to think that we are special, but i have my doubts on that.
We actually have never landed on an Exoplanet hell we haven't even started to do manned missions to Mars.
We can't know what is living on a planet unless we go there and land.
And spotting a space faring civilization is pretty hard.

>>8953860
The notion that the mysteries of the universe are infinite and that scientific discovery can go on forever until technology becomes magic is equally as based on jingoism. There are limits to physics. We have an increasingly clear idea of where technology will go and how far it will go in the future. Besides that, we aren't looking for elder gods, we're looking for being like us. I believe intelligent life is simply rare, by the way.

>>8953880
You could say that, in other words you could say we don't have the technology to search for intelligent life yet
I also doubt we can handle finding other intelligent life..
That would debunk most religion stuff if there is intelligent life like humans.

>>8953879
A space faring civilization wouldn't be hard to see if its transmissions were reaching you, relatively speaking. If you were looking for it and you were as advanced as us, you would probably find it if it could be found at all. Of course, maybe civilisations tend to emit less signals as they advance. Not because they're using quantum entanglement communication or some other bullshit, but because they use the stuff we are using now. Earth is emitting less radiowaves now than it did 20 years ago, as we use more fibre optics and tight band signals for communication and transfer of information. I don't see radios ever being replaced for stuff like listening to car radio and communication with ships/planes, though.

1. Even if there's life out there, from our single sample we know that eukaryotes took about 2 billion years to emerge, it was a strike of luck, it might not have happened at all.

2. Interstellar exploration is fantasy. We'll not make out of the solar system nor will any other intelligent biological creature leave theirs. It's far more likely that civilizations stagnate and decay, possibly self-destruct and rebuild over and over.

>>8953884
We have the tech to see it alright. It's as complicated and as simple at the same time as you might imagine. It could be like looking at a star and seeing that it is emitting slightly more EMR in the radiowave spectrum than a star of its type should. It takes a lot of intelligence and technology to understand what you are looking at there. Or, a star dimming rapidly over time because of space instillations being built. Such a happening isn't concealable. The idea that any civilisation could hide after it makes its first radio broadcasts is incredulous. Once it's out, it's out, and your best hope for survival is to spread out and continue advancing like there's no tomorrow to make yourself look as strong as possible, assuming you seriously fear attack from an organised alien force.

>>8953138
>>8953570
>>8953788

Why would someone from an advanced civilization (actually millions) opt into a simulation so they can suffer from AIDS and starvation in war-torn Africa?

>>8954497
Niggers are just NPC's, that's why they're all so dumb.

File: radio.jpg (641KB, 2515x2515px) Image search: [Google]

641KB, 2515x2515px

Fermi's ""paradox"" is merely the observation that within a very small slice of time (at best a few thousand years out of billions in Earth history), within a very constricted set of parameters (written human history which is spotty, astronomical observations which would only detect truly colossal structures or energy outputs) and observers (those sufficiently trained in the methods of rational empiricism so as to be able to rate likelihoods in a reasonable manner), nothing has been observed which peeks up above the background noise line as evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence.

The argument about time to colonize the galaxy is reasonable, but it also falls out of that - as an inevitability - that any species/group which can or has reached us is advanced beyond us on timescales of millions of years of technological development.

So either (a) there's nobody here, with a really unsatisfactory definition of sample size, or (b) somebody is here and they're beyond us on geological timescales of development.

If the latter, I'd be pretty surprised if they couldn't stay hidden if they wanted to. What the hell would you actually have to say to an Australopithecus? Nice antelope thighbone club, dude?

File: 1465753958408.png (393KB, 462x497px) Image search: [Google]

393KB, 462x497px

>>8953860
>If they are advanced enough to be zipping around in space, Why the fuck WOULD we be able to see them or know where they are?
So you think laws of physics work differently for aliens? TOPKEK

>>8946534
Life and intelligent life are not synonymous.

>>8955483
given enough time, intelligence is inevitable.

File: 1485652780304.png (134KB, 440x193px) Image search: [Google]

134KB, 440x193px

>>8955556
Yeah totally, green slime is capable of being intelligent.

>>8955569
look into evolution, dumbass

>>8955582
Of every species we know we have one that qualifies for intelligence so we don't know shit about its likelihood.

>>8954497
To better understand the concept of suffering maybe.

>>8955556
Creatures like sharks and crocodiles have been around for millions more years than humans have, and they've stayed relatively unchanged for a majority of that time. They haven't developed intelligence because they don't need intelligence, they're surviving just fine without it.

>>8956286
they were never the top of the food chain.

File: 9cb2df0aab8bade7837599990cb5eb03d416f000ab72db6518ce6d42afd313bc.jpg (9KB, 209x233px) Image search: [Google]

9KB, 209x233px

>>8955556

Bacteria world Earth was stable for perhaps 3 billion years. Eukaryotic complexity apparently arose only once in all that time, but transformed the world totally once it did. Ditto for many other essential high-information steps. I'm more inclined to believe that human-level intelligence - intelligence which can do the things which only humans can apparently do - is one possible outcome of a stochastic process, but by no means inevitable. Nervous systems were around for about 500 million years before a technological intelligence arose, which again only appears to have happened once and then transformed the world nearly overnight.

The best estimator we have for likelihoods at the moment is numbers of independent origins for similar traits. Those n=1 items are worrisome. Could be rare steps.

>>8945609
I've finished the first book but couldn't get into the second one.

Is it worth reading the entire trilogy or is the first one the best one anyway?

>>8956813
We could argue that certain birds and mammals are tool using but limited by their environment into becoming technological in nature. Especially whales.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_animals_by_number_of_neurons

Whales are still the only creatures on the planet with more neurons than white human males.

>>8956867
>Is it worth reading the entire trilogy or is the first one the best one anyway?
actually, 3rd one's the best. but yeah, read the whole thing because you won't understand things if you just jump in the middle

>>8945630
this is actually the best answer ive ever heard for this problem.

>>8956969
>this is actually the best answer ive ever heard for this problem.
uhm, that's a clueless answer.

Is it really possible that everyone in the universe is afraid of each other so everyone's playing hide & seek?

>>8958295
Yeah it's all a giant fucking prisoners dilemma.

If you speak up and the other species stays silent and abuses the information of your existence, you're fucked.

If you stay silent and the other species speaks up you can abuse that information and have the upper hand. You only need 1 large chunk of matter accelerated close to the speed of light which is possible with our current technology such as laser sails to annihilate a solar system. So speaking up gives every species with 1960's technology and up the ability to fuck up the solar system where the signal originated from.

Advanced species just look at the odds of this prisoners dilemma and just decides to never speak up.

We humans are fucking lucky that the radio transmissions we have done in our history have been weak as fuck and won't be picked up by actual species. And the fact that we are now starting to switch to digital transmissions because we were one of the dumb species that tried to speak up while not realizing the prisoners dilemma at play here.

WE NEED TO SHUT THE FUCK UP AS FAST AS POSSIBLE.

am i the only one smart enough to realize aliens are AI and don't value organic life?

>>8958340
>WE NEED TO SHUT THE FUCK UP AS FAST AS POSSIBLE.
That fucking hippie and weed junkie Sagan was advocate of broadcasting to the universe. Stephen Hawking said that we should all STFU and stay quiet.

I'd trust Hawking over Sagan.

>>8958348
>aliens are AI and don't value organic life

AI also doesn't value other AI.

>>8957415
maybe because we are clueless? just a thought