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Anonymous
laypersons statistics interpretation 2017-03-05 07:39:05 Post No. 8724442
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laypersons statistics interpretation 2017-03-05 07:39:05 Post No. 8724442
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as an idiot that doesn't know how to learn could someone dumb down statistical math for me?
here's my problem. average man has 10% chance of suicide from divorce, average man has 70% chance of divorce. how do i combine the two statistics to give the chances of suicide from marriage in this mans case? And if the man had a mental illness with a specific% suicide rate, how to add that in also?
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>>8724442
Bayes
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>>8724528
thanks but the wikipedia page hurts my brain.
> Despite the apparent accuracy of the test, if an individual tests positive, it is more likely that they do not use the drug than that they do
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>>8724442
It's easier to think of if you break the set of all men into subsets, draw like, a Venn diagram or some visual representation and Bayes' theorem will come to you.
[eqn]
P(A|B) = \frac{P(B|A)P(A)}{P(B)}
[/eqn]
P(Married) is the probability a man is married, P(Married|Cancer) is the probability they are married given the fact that they have cancer (the group of men with cancer who are also married).
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70% of married men get divorces, and 10% of those men who get divorces commit suicide. So, 10% of 70% of married men commit suicide. What is 10% of 70%?
Same general process no matter how many factors.
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>>8724442
>how do i combine the two statistics to give the chances of suicide from marriage in this mans case?
10% of 70% is 7%.
>And if the man had a mental illness with a specific% suicide rate, how to add that in also?
Too little information. You would need to see how many more people with a mental illness commit suicide after divorce. The best I can say is - more than 7%, since no known to me group of people with mental illness are less suicidal than healthy group of people in stressful situations such as divorce.
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>>8724442
>AND rule: if this happens AND that happens then multiply the probabilities
If men have a 70% chance of divorce AND 10% commit suicide due to divorce.
Then we can deduce that 70%*10% is the chance of men dying due to divorce
70% = 0.7, 10% = 0.1
So we just multiply... 0.7 x 0.1 = 0.07
Convert back to percent: 7%
This shows 7% of married men actually commit suicide after divorce
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>>8725087
That only works if the events are independent which is clearly not the case in OP's example
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability#Independent_events
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