probabilities

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Anonymous
probabilities 2017-01-01 01:56:51 Post No. 8573817
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probabilities Anonymous 2017-01-01 01:56:51 Post No. 8573817 [Report]

Hey, /sci/ /v/ here my friend and I are arguing over the chances of a loot crate giving a specific skin in our game. There's a 1% drop rate for this skin in each crate. We know a third person that opened up 200 loot crates each with a 1% chance of getting this skin. He didn't get it.

Now i say there was only a statistical chance of 2 out of the 200 crates that would have contained the skin but my friend says 13%

i haven't done this kind of math since high school and can't remember how to figure any of it out

who's right?

Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:12:45 Post No.8573845
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Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:12:45 Post No.8573845 [Report]

You are both fucking losers for caring about vydia.

Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:17:20 Post No.8573850
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Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:17:20 Post No.8573850 [Report]

>>8573845
but who is the bigger loser for getting it wrong?

Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:24:30 Post No.8573859
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Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:24:30 Post No.8573859 [Report]

what are you asking?

the probability that you will find at least one?
the probability that you will find only one?

Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:27:55 Post No.8573862
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Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:27:55 Post No.8573862 [Report]

Daily reminder that loot crates in video games are loopholes in gambling laws. Do not buy them under any circumstance.

Imnot Arobot 2017-01-01 02:29:44 Post No.8573865
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Imnot Arobot 2017-01-01 02:29:44 Post No.8573865 [Report]

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>>8573817
>my friend says 13%
he's right

Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:39:57 Post No.8573874
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Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:39:57 Post No.8573874 [Report]

>>8573859
at least one

Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:42:23 Post No.8573881
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Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:42:23 Post No.8573881 [Report]

>>8573817
The expected value of skins is 2. That is, if someone offered you 200 crates OR 2 skins and you didn't care about anything else but the skin you would be just as happy with either option.

The probably of opening *exactly* one skin is given 200*.01*.99^199 is about 27%. That is if you repeat the "opening 200 boxes" experiment millions of times you'll open 1 skin in about 27% of your trials over all. If you need to place a bet on opening exactly one skin, you'd use this number to set odds.

The probability of *at least* 1 skin is given 1-.99^200 which is just under 87%. Your friend probably half assed this calculation to get 13%. This is the number you probably care about.

Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:44:45 Post No.8573887
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Anonymous 2017-01-01 02:44:45 Post No.8573887 [Report]

>>8573817
probability that a given box contains the loot: .01 = 1/100
probability that all boxes are empty: .99^200 ~ 13/100
probabilty that one box contains loot: 0.1*.99^199*200C1 ~ 27/100
probability that two boxes contain loot: ~27/100
probability that three boxes contain loot: ~18/100
and so on

I'm aware that Imgur.com will stop allowing adult images since 15th of May. I'm taking actions to backup as much data as possible. Read more on this topic here - https://archived.moe/talk/thread/1694/

I'm aware that Imgur.com will stop allowing adult images since 15th of May. I'm taking actions to backup as much data as possible.
Read more on this topic here - https://archived.moe/talk/thread/1694/