Pick a door.

numero 2

>>8515405
2

File: Untitled.png (19KB, 1000x1000px) Image search: [Google]

19KB, 1000x1000px

Do you change?

>>8515405
1.

>>8515420
no i have no idea why i would want to yet

>>8515424
You get $5

Now, if it was already decided that the money would be behind door #2, why would the chance of it being behind door #1 somehow be 2/3 in this situation?

two to the one to the one to the three, I like good pussy and I like good trees

>>8515431
door 1 = £5
door 2 and 3 = fire

option 1 = pick door one and swap = lose
option 2 = pick door two and swap = win
option 3 = pick door three and swap = win
2/3 chances of winning when swapping

>>8515431
you are asking: "Given that the money is behind door #2, what is the probability of it being behind door #1."

There is a 0% chance that the money that you have told us is behind door #2 is behind door #1.

Probability questions like these are extremely dependent on phrasing, please try to be a touch more rigorous.

There are a ton of situations that look like the Monty Hall problem where the answer is one half, and a ton of situations that look like the Monty Hall problem where the answer is 2/3. You can't just throw three doors at us and ask us to read your mind.

>>8515405
I never understood this.

The key is that when you're shown the fire, you should switch doors. It brings two contradicting models

Model 1 :
>You choose B. You have 33% chance of winning.
>C is revealed to be a trap, but it doesn't change the state of B. You now still have 50% of winning by staying with B, so changing or not changing doesn't matter.

Model 1 :
>You choose B. You have 33% chance of winning.
>C is revealed to be a trap
>Somehow this means that A is most secure door and you should choose it

>>8515461
Oh, I see now.

No matter the evidence I'm always going to argue the 50/50. If you take into account you're going to make a second "final" choice then you can assume the first one to not be a genuine choice so 50/50 odds

every time I see this is just wanna you know what the fuckin creator

>>8515470
Not him, but this board is autism. I would hate to be as pedantic as any single one of you, how do you even tolerate yourselves?

I know what he said wasn't what he was trying to say, but I literally have no idea what he was trying to ask.

It was clearly Monty Hall related, but beyond that, indecipherable.

>>8515591
How do I tolerate myself? Quite easily, when you consider the fact that the best way to get my ideas and it was the way of the world to me that you can get it together for the next few months and I don't know why you don't know what I was just thinking that I have a great way to get my hair and makeup for me and you have a great way to get my hair and makeup and hair and makeup for a few years back on my way home and sleep all night and I'm still not sure what I was in a while ago but the fact I can be the same thing I don't think it's time for a few years back on my way home and sleep all night and I'm still not sure how much I love it when you are the only thing is I have a nice person and the first half of my friends are the same most of my favorite song on by a few years weeks of the year and before you go out and about get a follow new update

>>8515591
Science and math board kid. 3 literally means 3 not 2 not 4 not 1.6585. how is that too formal or literal? You must be a brainless brainlet.

>>8515405
#4