Statistically speaking, what are my odds of getting dubs on a random post?
I bet 90% of /sci/ gets this wrong
>>8450523
sigh....
fifty fifty either you get dubs or you don't ha ha
>>8450526
this was painful to read
>>8450539
only half the time. It's either painful or its not. 50 50
1 in 10
>>8450546
Incorrect. Trips, quads, quints, etc. are not dubs
>>8450547
SO actually, you have a higher chance of getting dubs on a board with a lower total post count. (i.e. you won't get octs on /sci/)
>>8450523
I forget dubs rules but if we're talking the last two digits specifically, you first consider the odds of getting a number (1/10) and that number again (1/10), and add up all the different ways you can get that sort of result because they are each independent events that have equal chance of occurring. So if it's 1/100 to get 00, or 11, or 22, that would mean it's a total of 10% chance of getting ANY dubs at the end of a post.
If the dubs can be anywhere in a post, then you have to add more maths for all the different two-digit spots your dubs can occupy
>>8450550
No. The number of posts does not affect the distribution of digits (I assume).
>>8450556
But it does. We have 1/10-1/100-1/1000... up to the number of digits on the board. So it's lower for boards with higher post count
>>8450547
OK I'll bite.
P(singles)=9/10, because for a given value of the last digit, there is a 1/10 chance that the next digit is the same.
Let P(dubs,...) denote the probability of getting at least two repeating digits at the end.
On the one hand,
(1) P(dubs,...)=1-P(singles)=1/10.
On the other,
(2) P(dubs,...)=P(dubs)+P(trips,...).
where P(dubs) is the probability of getting exactly two repeating digits.
But P(trips,...)=P(dubs,...)/10, because if the last two digits match, there's a 1/10 chance that the next will match as well.
Plugging into equation (2),
P(dubs,...)=P(dubs)+P(dubs...)/10
whence
(3) P(dubs,...)=10P(dubs)/9
Plugging this result in to equation (1),
10P(dubs)/9=1/10
whence
P(dubs)=9/100
>>8450559
I assumed they would just add more digits as needed but I could be wrong
0.09
>>8450580
this is if you assume you're drawing numbers at random. only here you do not, so unless the total count is close to a quad you can safely truncate at trips due to the relatively low frequency of posts
>>8450629
?
Of course the numbers aren't truly "random" because they're posted in order, but it still makes sense to talk about the probability, namely the limit of (Number of dubs posts)/(total number of posts) as the total number of posts goes to infinity.
>>8450634
yeah sure only that this does not make much sense for practical application. the chance that I get quints with this post is "zero" since we are nowhere near the next quints. also quads or trips can almost be ruled out in a slow board like this unless the count approaches them. dubs are different because the frequency of posts is large compared to 10/(whatever is the timescale of posting).
also dubs
>>8450644
Nice digits
You're right about the quints thing, but that's not the question that was asked. If you draw a card at random from a standard deck, what's the probability that it's a king? Now what if I told you that I had already drawn all 4 kings? These are different questions with different answers.
>>8450526
Bayes go to bed
>>8450523
This is basically a binomial problem and does depend on the number of posts. If I haven posts what is the probability of k dubs ( in this case at least 1). The probability of a single post is a dub = 1/10 (10 dubs out of 100 possibilities).
Now the probability of no dubs = (n choose 0)(1/10)^0*(9/10)^n. So the probability of at least one dub = 1- (9/10)^n.
>>8450644
Checking that
So the chances are what then that another person would get dubs