The Nonty Hall Problem

Thread replies: 18
Thread images: 6

Anonymous
The Nonty Hall Problem 2016-06-16 10:34:19 Post No. 8145655
[Report] Image search: [Google]

File: CBslmsvUgAA0o80[1].jpg (34KB, 600x469px) Image search: [Google]

The Nonty Hall Problem Anonymous 2016-06-16 10:34:19 Post No. 8145655 [Report]

The Nonty Hall Problem

>On a game show, a contestant was offered a choice of three doors. Behind one door was a car, behind the other two were goats.

>After the contestant had selected a door, Nonty opened a different door, revealing a goat. Nonty offered the contestant a chance to change his selected door to the other, unopened, door.

>Would a door switch have improved the contestants chances of selecting the door behind which a car was hidden?

This is not the Monty Hall problem. In the Monty Hall problem, the answer is “Yes, from 1/3rds to 2/3rds.” In the Nonty Hall problem, the answer is “No, there is a 50% chance of receiving a car no matter which of the two un-opened doors that is selected.”

Having already given you the answer to the game show question, the Nonty Hall problem is instead:

Can you recognize where the Nonty Hall problem is different from the Monty Hall problem? Why does it have different probable outcomes?

Anonymous 2016-06-16 10:44:37 Post No.8145665
[Report]

Anonymous 2016-06-16 10:44:37 Post No.8145665 [Report]

>>8145655
sounds like bullshit you just made up

Anonymous 2016-06-16 11:29:18 Post No.8145739
[Report]

Anonymous 2016-06-16 11:29:18 Post No.8145739 [Report]

The problem with all the trolls on 4chan is that I cannot just tell you "trust me" because I might be a troll, but... trust me? There really is a difference. You can find it with either a map of the outcomes or through explicit Bayesian updating.

Anonymous 2016-06-16 11:33:29 Post No.8145749
[Report]

Anonymous 2016-06-16 11:33:29 Post No.8145749 [Report]

>>8145655
did the host know where the car was an always opens a goat door? - 1/3 to 2/3

did the host not know where the car was and opened a goat door by chance? - 1/2 to 1/2

Anonymous 2016-06-16 11:36:55 Post No.8145758
[Report]

Anonymous 2016-06-16 11:36:55 Post No.8145758 [Report]

>>8145655
>In the Nonty Hall problem, the answer is “No, there is a 50% chance of receiving a car no matter which of the two un-opened doors that is selected.

No there is not, because in the Nonty Hall Problem, the faggot OP didnt fucking state that Nonty opened the door randomly, probably because the OP was too busy sucking dicks and thinking about how smart he was.

In actuality, there is not enough information in the Nonty Hall Problem to make an accurate determination, and OP is a faggot.

Anonymous 2016-06-16 11:42:38 Post No.8145767
[Report]

Anonymous 2016-06-16 11:42:38 Post No.8145767 [Report]

Contestant chooses car by chance. Nonty reveals goat 1 by chance. Switching loses.
Contestant chooses car by chance. Nonty reveals goat 2 by chance. Switching loses.
Contestant chooses goat 1 by chance. Nonty reveals goat 2 by chance. Switching wins.
Contestant chooses goat 2 by chance. Nonty reveals goat 1 by chance. Switching wins.

By definition, there are no scenarios where Nonty reveals the car. This is treated as if it were a possibility, but also cause for a retry until no car is revealed.

Ergo 50/50.

Anonymous 2016-06-16 11:52:56 Post No.8145781
[Report]

Anonymous 2016-06-16 11:52:56 Post No.8145781 [Report]

>>8145655
Yes, assuming the way you opened doors changed between problems, which is a key detail you admitted because "lel".

If you open doors randomly, and you open a dud door, then the odds are 50/50, but that's because 1/3 of the time you pick the wrong door and flip a car which guarantees you lose.

Anonymous 2016-06-16 11:54:35 Post No.8145783
[Report]

Anonymous 2016-06-16 11:54:35 Post No.8145783 [Report]

>>8145767
You are really dumb.

Anonymous 2016-06-16 12:21:41 Post No.8145814
[Report]

Anonymous 2016-06-16 12:21:41 Post No.8145814 [Report]

>>8145767
>>8145749

Yup, the change is in Nonty's algorithm. Bravo, one cookie.

>>8145758
>faggot OP didnt fucking state that Nonty opened the door randomly

First, get that cock out of your mouth it make you type like a faggot. Second, google "reasoning under uncertainty" and realize that "I have no knowledge of how he picked" and "he picked completely at random" are mathematically identical statements, so you actually had all the information all along.