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My brother is up 1k by pure luck at this game. We are going together this Friday.
The odds of winning a bet on black in American Roulette are (18/38) = 0.47368
The odds of losing 5 in a row are (0.526316)^5 == 0.04038 or 4%.
If I use the Martingale strategy how many spins can I get before my odds dip below 51% chance of walking away with money? Minimum bet is $5. I'm leaving after I lose $155 in a row. Would the odds be cumulative? 4% + 4% + 4%... and so on? I'd make about 13*$5= 65. Is there a better strategy?
$5 + $10 + $20 + $40 + $80 = $155
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The only way to win is to not play. Any statistician will tell you that. Also you technically have better odds betting the entire sum the betting small sums.
Look up the strong law of large numbers, any sample you take will eventually approach its average. The average is always in favour of the house so you're almost guaranteed to lose a large sum of that money (if not all.)
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>>7674710
Also, I still expect you're going regardless of what I say. So my advice is to bet a smaller number of larger sums. 2-4 is a bad sample, but 35 samples is starting to get closer to its average.
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>>7674699
dude... the game is set up by the house so that you CANT use the martingale strategy and gain a statistical advantage.
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>>7674699
>Martingale strategy
Ever wonder why 00 exists in roulette?
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>>7674699
You have a slightly greater than 1 in 2 chance of losing your bet, and only double your money (not slightly greater) if you do win.
You dont seem to understand the difference between return and bet odds.
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>>7674732
>playing american pleb roulette
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>going to a casino to play anything but blackjack, poker or craps
i seriously hope you guys do not partake in the aforementioned activity
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>>7674710
I'm not sure you understand the math I presented.
>>7674728
You can if you stop playing forever after a certain number of rolls.
I estimate a 56% chance I can walk away with $55 on any given day. Yes, of course my returns over multiple visits will be negative but on a single day I should be able to go positive. Just tell me where my math above is wrong if you disagree.
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>not playing trente et quarante
>not playing baccarat
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>>7674699
Punters have betting strategy. Casinos still in business. And you need maths to figure this out?
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>>7674809
>Just tell me where my math above is wrong if you disagree.
Your 56% estimate is bullshit. The chance of you making $55 is equal to the chance of you making $55 on any other day with the same number of rolls, which would never happen consistently because the house always wins.
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>>7674848
Eh, this is pointless. Nobody even reads into the math. Didn't know /sci/ went to super-shit.
Either the 4% chance of missing 5 in a row is true or it's false. And either the accumulation of spins increases that 4% or it doesn't... (answers are obvious btw)
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>>7674809
I'm not sure you understand probability but go ahead and waste your money anyway.
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