President Trump Afghanistan Strategy Thread

>>138562521
4000 soldiers isn't that much tbqh. If it isn't to secure rare earth metals or finally burn the opium then I don't see the point aside from not letting the kebab go to nuts. Tldr wait and see what actually happens before jumping to judgement.

>>138563617
4000, if correct, sounds like roughly a 160th Battalion for lift, dedicated ISR crews, and 2 direct action Battalions/Squadrons.

>>138563617
From the perspective of economic nationalism, making sure that rare earth metals are secured doesn't make much sense unless they are under direct US control.

>>138563780
Which by itself is a drop in the bucket without some sort of strategic shift. Without watching the entire speech again, I do not recall any mention of the destruction of the Taliban, which leaves the door open to some sort of reconciliation...perhaps if they rebrand themselves and renounce international terrorism.

>>138563617
Also, under the Taliban, opium production in 2001 was close to zero. There may be a fundamental shift going on here.

>>138564681
Depends on the ROE.

For example, in one trip to Mosul we had 2 Platoons do over 600 missions in a single 5 month rotation.

2 Platoons is 1/6th of a Battalion.

Afghanistan being large, and requiring lift, means 4 missions a night per 2 companies is unrealistic, but being able to get after it and kill people would be a much different ROE than under Obama post 2008.

ESPECIALLY if the purpose is to open up the FATA, which is why it would be 160th and a Ranger Battalion+Delta Squadron or some mixture of ODA/CIF+babby SEAL Teams.

>>138565130
Interesting, which could correspond with the denunciations of Pakistan. Is it possible this is political leverage force Pakistan to concede to more raids in their semi-controlled territory, a-la the bin Laden raid?

>>138565844
It's all speculation really.

The '4000' number was being thrown around, my speculation is that 4000 is too small to be anything but SOF+SOF Lift + ISR - they'd use existing lift, support, and RWCAS/CAS assets.

The only reason to bring more SOF is to do raids, the place we have ALWAYS known is where we SHOULD be doing raids is the FATA. Raids would occur elsewhere as well, though I think if we find out that our main effort gets station at JBAD or Khowst then we'd know the FATA was the primary target as Kandahar and Bagram are too far from key areas like Miram Shah and Peshawar.

Pakistan was put on notice, for lack of a better term.

4000 is too small of a BCT or any other similar sized combat/infantry deployment. If the number is MUCH greater than 4000 then this was all larping.

>>138566301
Probably the most information thing I have read on the internet in awhile, I appreciate it.
If that is the case, hopefully the results speak for themselves.

>>138566301
What is your opinion on why the Pakistani government has not clamped down on those areas? Obviously domestic political opposition is a consideration, but is it a matter of politics of military difficulties?

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>>138562521

>>138567134
I do appreciate the bump, but a reminder this is exactly the kind of shit to be avoided here

>>138562521
Well if we are finally allowed the Afghans to pick their fate, will we see the country Balkanize along ethnic and religious lines?

>>138567102
My info on this topic is years old at this point, but historically the ISID, the Army, and the Government are all separate entities with separate agendas.

The ISID prefers to have the FATA lawless / as a sanctuary, the Army doesn't want TTP active in PK so it occasionally does raids, but doesn't want the US there, and the Government can't allow itself to look weak to western influence.

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>>138562521
Obongo. Plan 1. Invade country. Obliterate everything but drugs. Rebuild country at country's expense, even though there was NO reason to be in that country in the first place. Take control of drugs. Ship drugs back to USA. Fuck Up Niggers.

Trump. Plan 2. Put more military in to country. Shoot dissenters. Build more Infrastructure, then blow it up, because of reasons. Expand Opium fields. Guard Opium fields. Kidnap children and escort them out of the country. Send children to rich politicians. Send drugs to politicians, niggers, and anyone with $100 to spare. Take organs from some of the children and sell to Jews. Continue to kill anybody who asks what the fuck are you doing here again. Send in Multi-Nationals to steal minerals. Drive around with an Afghan womans head on the front of the car, because of reasons. Kill the wildlife and animals and Monsanto-Fuck the national plants. Tell them this is freedom, and if they don't like it democracy is next.

Pence. Plan 3. Kaboomb! Everything is destroyed except for the Poppy fields.

>>138567102
Could Pakistan even clamp down if they wanted too? They would have to deploy a large portion of their army to the FATA permanently and that's not really an option when everything is needed on the Indian border to present even a remotely credible defense of that border.

>>138562521
It just sounded like a cover to potentially go into an Asian conflict to me, while appeasing his war-hungry masters.

>>138569650
That has been the $64,000 question for quite some time. Even GWB would criticize Musharraf's half-hearted efforts in northwest Pakistan, but in hindsight to no avail.

>>138564681
he specifically said they might be part of a new government agreement in the future, MAYBE, if things change, etc