Swing States in 2020

Depends on the candidate. My guess, if Trump is the Republican going up against a moderate Democrat, the major swings will be

>Michigan
>Wisconsin
>Pennsylvania
>Florida
>New Hampshire
>North Carolina
>Virginia
>Nevada

>>136546356
I doubt Michigan and Wisconsin will come back for Democrats, Trump is delivering on a lot of the economic promises he made and Democrats are having trouble rebranding. If anything, Trump could probably extend those Rust Belt wins to Minnesota. Pennsylvania is still up in the air because of possible black/Dem turnout though.

Virginia and Nevada are marked as blue because of demographic shifts, if Trump couldn't win them this time it'll be even harder with an extra 4 years of diversity and Cali/DC transplants.

>>136547310
Frankly I don't see him winning Wisconsin or Michigan again. Especially if his approval rating gets even lower than it is now. He will *never* win Minnesota though, no Republican will.


I think he'll still win Ohio by a good solid margin, but I really think that's it. Especially considering the tiny margin he originally won Michigan and PA by.

>>136545967
Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, South Carolina, Maine 2nd District, Texas if the wall isn't built.

Arizona and Pennsylvania will go blue. Nevada will stay blue. Ohio and Florida will stay red.

Pretty bad outlook for Trump, he has to win the midterms. At least the Republicans will get +4, maybe even +6, senators. Another SCOTUS replacement (Ginsburg, Breyer, Kennedy) would be fine.

>>136550547
Senate 2018:

From D to R (possible): Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, West Virginia.

From D to R (safely): Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia.

From R to D: Nevada.

Safely: +4
Possible: +8
But only if Trump delivers.

House will stay R because of Gerrymendering at least. There might be losses though.

>>136550547
*North Carolina

Why in the fuck is New Mexico so solidly Democrat?

>>136553092
Spics

>>136553092
majority brown people

>>136553303
Are you serious? Wow. I figured there were a bunch of spics, but not enough to swing a vote.

>>136548480
The approval rating could be a problem, although I'm skeptical of all polling after last year.

If he delivers on his economic promises, Wisconsin and Michigan will likely stay red. Trump champions the issues that voters there care about, while Democrat attempts at rebranding have all gone horribly wrong. Bar a blowout, Trump will be fine there.

Maybe I'm just optimistic, but I don't think Minnesota is out of reach. Trump lost there by under two points. Given Minnesota's Iron Range and Somali immigrants, I think it's possible for Trump to pick up momentum there with some clever campaigning.

>>136553567
America is only 56% white and non-white births outnumber white births as of 2 years ago. In one generation they'll be able to outvote all white people combined.

Same as 2016. Not much will change except

>AZ becomes less red
>MN becomes less blue

Same States in play for the foreseeable future.

>>136545967

there is going to be no 2020 election oblivious

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>>136545967
Hopefully the next dem can pull it out.

>>136556156

make arizona light red and this map would be accurate

>>136547310
>>136554738

The problem is Trump is only appealing to the far right of his base. He's alienated/not appealed to any of the Dems/Independents he gained during the election. He has to moderate a little on things outside of immigration.

If he keeps going down the path he's on, he approval numbers will tank.

>>136556428

>The problem is Trump is only appealing to the far right of his base

bullshit, i know a ton of boomer republicans (type who loved reagan, bush sr and jr) who are still happy with trump. it's not only the far right who are still satisfied with his presidency. and he still has time to appeal to moderates/independents.

>>136556639

well he also needs to appeal to the Rust Belt Reagan Democrats. Otherwise they might not stay with him and go back to Dems (even if Dems offer them nothing). Trump has to broaden his coalition instead of 24/7 pandering to his base.

>>136556639
>anecdotal evidence

You can't deny his way is a complete other than the moderate Bush/Clinton way. And the Reagan-American society is dead unless the spics get deported completely.

>Wisconsin red while Pennsylvania is a swing state
Wat

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>>136545967
>Implying anything will be the same post Sept 23rd

See you in September niggers!!

>>136557516

The margins were close last time

>>136545967
Add Georgia and Texas there buddy