Its time to come clean /pol/acks

File: 1500695389559.jpg (3MB, 1024x5400px) Image search: [Google]

3MB, 1024x5400px

Some stuff might not be related I just saved in, just in case.

File: 1501464056211.png (163KB, 720x989px) Image search: [Google]

163KB, 720x989px

Some images may be dubbles im pretty disorganized.

Alright thats about 80% of what I had saved. THIS IS WHAT A LARP LOOKS LIKE /POL/

We will all be good to remember the following.

1) observing evidence for a hypothesis makes that hypothesis more likely in proportion to how well the hypothesis would predict the event.

2) In making one hypothesis more likely, conservation of probably makes other hypothesis less likely (e.g. the probability of all events still has to add up to 100%)

3) a hypothesis can never be completely confirmed or completely denied. E.g. probabilities for a hypothesis never go to 100% or 0% but they can asymptomaticly approach that

4) the way you determine the goodness of a hypothesis or a theory is to make advance predictions based on that theory. If the observed evidence supports the theory AFTER the predictions are made, the hypothesis becomes more likely

5) Observing evidence and tayloring a theory/hypothesis to the evidence is not a good idea. You can always come up with somthing that fits the facts after they have happened and promoting a single theory like that ends up distorting your hypothesis space. You can use evidence to get an idea for a hypothesis, but the metrits of the hypothesis are proven by it's ability to predict FUTURE events or events of which you had no knowledge when formulating the hypothesis

https://www.datascience.com/blog/introduction-to-bayesian-inference-learn-data-science-tutorials
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/risk/
https://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/