Venezuela Happening Thread

>>135739523

I need a quick rundown

>>135739523
shit is goin down.

>>135739601
Founder of the opposition has been under house arrest, they just busted in and arrested him, some suiciding going to go down.

>>135739707
Will this cause mass outrage by the opposition? Possibly violent?

File: 0856 - qE6LXKK.jpg (10KB, 251x242px) Image search: [Google]

10KB, 251x242px

Socialist country crumbling, no surprises.
Sage

>>135739854
Peru, you're disgusting.

>>135739799
Hard to tell from the outside, opposition and civilians have been starved off for months now, from what i gather most internal production is going towards the government, the army and government armed militias.

I've seen lots of Venezuelans chiming in before, I'd like to see what local reactions are like. We probably wont be hearing too much for another 4-5 hours though.

>>135739923
Your opinion is so important buddy
Try harder

File: 1500209157096.png (120KB, 644x598px) Image search: [Google]

120KB, 644x598px

>>135739523
ITS FUCKING HAPPENNING

I was just going to start a threat about this Venezuelan secret police "SEBIN" is arresting the opposition during the night.
Leopoldo lopez that was freed a month ago was taken by the secret police , some mayors are taken too , there is no more info besides that but the fucking commies are starting the purgue.

Now they are going to starve undesirables as they always do.

BUMP THIS FAGGOTS ITS FUCKING HAPPENING TOTAL PURGUES GOING ON BY THE COMMIES REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

>>135739923

you are next m8

>>135739523
>crime in 3rd world country
>happening

>>135739965
>t. Irrelevant country
Go back to sell drugs you disgusting mestizo

File: 14940527468452.png (352KB, 850x671px) Image search: [Google]

352KB, 850x671px

>>135740129
NEVER FUCK LEFTIST , FUCK SOCIALISM FUCK COMMUNISM , FUCK FASCIST , FUCK ISLAMOFASCISM.

>>135739523


I hope America goes down like Venezuela, I have my eye on my next door neighbor.

When SHTF, women are more likely to fuck than when society is stable.

File: 1492669007670.png (103KB, 494x498px) Image search: [Google]

103KB, 494x498px

>>135740201
Also fuck peronism

File: bernier.jpg (42KB, 512x512px) Image search: [Google]

42KB, 512x512px

>>135740139
Like I care about people there, what I want to know is if there will be another modern civil war or not. This has the potential to spillover the the Americas and it will do us all good if opinion turns against socialists and commies.

>>135740269
Is Cristina /ourqueen/ guys?

File: 1491672635168.png (114KB, 644x598px) Image search: [Google]

114KB, 644x598px

>>135740288
Yes if there is not a civil war there will be a holodomor and somalization.

3 million refugees to the rest of the americas on the first year.
If not it will continue slowly with people escaping its already happening , search "bolivarian diaspora"

File: miauricio.gif (3MB, 498x311px) Image search: [Google]

3MB, 498x311px

>>135740347
No, fuck that bitch , nestor was based but that bitch leave us with nearly 50% of deficit and outside of debt markets , we would have 100 % of yearly inflation if not for macri.

Macri is too fucking slow though hes ben too soft but at least he managed to reduce inflation from 47 % to 19% already.

File: 1072 - 4NnuIWE.jpg (47KB, 499x499px) Image search: [Google]

47KB, 499x499px

>>135740194
>Argentina
>Calling Peruvians mixed
Also nice englando

>>135740511
>nestor was based
I was joking before... I hope you're joking too.

Nestor was a Montonero

File: _84659470_kipu.jpg (32KB, 660x371px) Image search: [Google]

32KB, 660x371px

Seems to be a lot of S. Americans conveniently derailing this thread into a Balkan thread.

>>135740582
>Peru
>Relevant
HUEHUEHUE WE WUZ INCA HUEHUE

it's ogre

File: OBTSSQS.jpg (526KB, 1280x800px) Image search: [Google]

526KB, 1280x800px

>>135740618
Maybe but he was the first one to create a balance between the public and private sector , he didnt nationalize shit for the lulz like cristina and he mantained a balanced budget during all his government.

Cristina then started nationalizing shit for the lulz , fucking with chavez and leave us destroyed.
Nestor was not that bad , but cristina was so terribly that he destroyed the things that nestor did.
Macri is based as fuck tough.

>>135740782
I don't give a fuck about that, Nestor was a lefti cuck who persecuted the Junta and Videla die in prison. He let massive amount of immigrants in for a few votes.

Macri is not based, he is pro-LGBT and pro-abortion. But I agreed that he is the best we got.

File: 0828 - 3q9EKNw.jpg (15KB, 225x225px) Image search: [Google]

15KB, 225x225px

>>135740686
Proving my point, keep going englandoman

File: 100d837.jpg (45KB, 1023x575px) Image search: [Google]

45KB, 1023x575px

More house arrest footage.

https://twitter.com/OdeLopez/status/892273412684513281

>Southern Brown Gooks trying to derail thread

Steve Hanke, an influential free market economist, who is well connected around the globe posted this on his twitter:

"Post vote my sources tell me that elements are well armed and will target N. Guard. #VNZ could take a bloody turn."

https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/status/892108697064792066

If the opposition starts shooting national guardsmen we will probably get into Mad Max: Syria edition territory real soon.

For those among us who trade stocks, I would suggest you go long Canadian heavy oil producers (Suncor etc.), and consider shorting the Texas refineries, like Western Refining.

>>135740686
>>135740582
>have mom from Argentina
>have dad from Peru
S-stop!

>>135741288
Will this not benifit gazprom too? Why would Russia/China throw so much money at Venezuela to stave off OPEC, if their collapse will benefit them?

>>135739923
What does it feel to be the poorest white country in the world?

Bump. All you Socialist loving faggots can go fuck off in Venezuela.

>>135741958
Thanks, this entire thread is being purposely derailed into a Balkan thread. Every night Venezuelans are out in force, either they have cut some lines or the shills are outnumbering everyone 10 to 1.

>>135739601
CIA removes barriers to create an american migrant crysis. If drop details and obstacles.

File: Unpa Lumpa.jpg (8KB, 193x240px) Image search: [Google]

8KB, 193x240px

Venezualia confirmd for Iraq 2.0


expect USA military intervention soon.

>>135741667
Venezuela produces heavy oil from bitumen deposits. Effectively what they do is take sand that has oil in it and clean it with steam and hot water. But then they end up with this really heavy stuff that has very high viscosity and as a result doesnt flow at all. So they need to mix their Venezuelan oil with lighter oil or with gas condensates to be able to transport it. But because they do not produce much light oil and condensates, they have to import it, in order to mix it with their heavy oil, and only then can they export it to Texas.
In Texas there are a number of refineries that have especially been outfitted to refine Venezuelan oil. Their problem is that there are not a whole lot of sources for heavy oil that are easily accessible, and that have excess supply. Basically they can buy heavy oil from the Middle East (Basra fields in Southern Iraq), or from the oil sand operations in Alberta Canada. But since there is no real proper working Keystone XL pipeline going from Alberta to Texas, and because Basra is half the world away, the price of heavy crude will probably rise significantly, as Texan refiners try to get their hands on any heavy crude they can find, should Venezuela end up in a real civil war.

>Will this not benifit gazprom too?

Not that much from the heavy oil factor, because Gazprom does not produce that much heavy oil. But the price of oil will likely rise when Venezuela truly goes to shit. The Russians and Chinese consider Venezuela to be a natural ally in Latin America, but they are not in an entangling alliance with the Maduro regime. In two of three scenarios they would win.

1. Maduro stays in power and becomes extremely reliant on China and Russia for protection, economic development etc. He will sell or give away bigger parts of the Venezuelan oil industry to the Russians and Chinese in exchange for help. He will also become a reliant exporter of oil to China.

>>135739523
venezuela that was some mean bush

>>135742481
2. Venezuela turns into Syria 2.0. Oil prices will rise, benefitting the Russians. The backyard of the United States, Latin America, becomes much more unstable. Refugees flee Venezuela for neighbouring countries and the US, the illegal drugtrade explodes, the FARC and other similar movements may move into Venezuela. Texas refineries get into trouble, the US consumer has to pay more for gas etc.

3. The Maduro regime gets replaced by pro-US opposition after a coup or a short civil war. This is the best scenario for the US. American companies will gain access to Venezuelan oil fields, the price of oil will remain stable. China and Russia lose a key ally in Latin America, leaving them with only Bolivia as the sole Latin American country that truly defies the US.

>>135740201
>2013
thats when they were riding the tide of high oil prices. Nobody cared that country is going to ruins as long as the gibs were comming. its the same in the west

>>135742481
>>135742714
Interesting. Are you expecting a huge market change tomorrow or by the end of the week? I have a few grand invested in Alberta already from the last collapse, but do you think it's going to shoot past 100/barrel again?

>>135742481
>>135742714
>>135743810
Bump for curiosity.

For instance, if option #3, would oil briefly rise during the uncertainty and reactionary trading leading up to decision on US action and then the return to mean happens?

There would be at least SOME volatility to come in the short term, yes?

>>135739523
Didn't they just release him on house arrest a few weeks ago??

>>135743810
>Are you expecting a huge market change tomorrow or by the end of the week?

I have no clue when things may change. But I think we can assume that unless the price of oil rises significantly:

>Venezuela will continue to burn through its cash reserves
>They will lack funds to do maintenance on their complex oil production facilities and refineries
>They will lack cash to buy condensates and light oil, which they need to use to mix with their heavy crude
>They will be unable to buy weapons and supplies for their military
>They will not be able to buy food and basic necessities for the Venezuelan people

This will result in an escalation of violence, which will further deteriorate the ability of Venezuela to produce oil. Just imagine a group of rebels/rebellious military/disgruntled engineers occupying or destroying oil production plants, ports or refineries.
The conflict can escalate very quickly, so the price of oil and in particular heavy oil could rise significantly in a very short timeframe. If Trump decides to sanction the Venezuelan oil industry, the price of heavy oil will rise overnight, and the Texan refiners will scramble to find other supplies. Buying a giant bitumen producer like Suncor seems like a good bet, but you could also consider some of the smaller companies, that probably have more leverage to these kinds of events. THere are a couple of shale producers that produce heavy oil in the Permian basin in Texas. There's also a pennystock that I am invested in called Petroteq Energy, which is developing a number of technologies that allow it to produce oil from oil sands in Utah using a solvent instead of steam. Should they succeed in their endeavours they will probably become one of the bigger heavy oil producers in the world.

File: 1501037107802.jpg (88KB, 960x960px) Image search: [Google]

88KB, 960x960px

>>135740201

>>135744976
Thanks, this aligns with my thoughts. Always good to have an independent perspective help confirm possibilities.

>>135744299
Yes. Volatility is to be expected in the coming months. However, it is important to take into account that Venezuela is only a minor player in the oil market. They produce about 2.1 million barrels, which is somewhat more than 2% of global oil production, and export the majority of it to US, but they also export to Cuba and China.

One point of caution is that while Venezuela goes to shit, the price of oil might decline. Since 2015 we have had a glut of oil. Oil consumption has not grown as much as was hoped, and US shale producers have pumped out as much oil as they could, dropping the price of oil from around $100 in 2014 to 30 in 2016, and now it has stabilized at about $50. Oil analysts are divided into two big camps: those that believe that we are going back down to the low $40s and $30s, and those who believe that we will go into a range of $50s-$60s. Very few analysts and industry insiders believe that we will go back to $100+ oil.

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Washington-Could-Suspend-Oil-Exports-To-Venezuela.html

Another point of caution is that when supply to Texas refineries gets shut off, the price of oil may decline instead of rise. This is because there will be a lower demand for oil as there are fewer direct consumers (the refiners) of crude oil, while there will be reserves for a couple of weeks of refined petroleum available to consumers. AFter a few weeks these surplus supplies will have been used up and the price of refined product will rise, benefitting the non-Texan refineries, and the non-Venezuelan oil producers.

>>135745259
I bought low a little over a year ago in bitumen after I got laid off in Alberta, but in the past month I've been hired back for tin bashing, and there has been a huge upswing in our camp already, with just a small upswing in price.

Who's to tell if this crisis has been planned or it just made sense that it was going to happen eventually. But it makes sense now. We have been at almost 100/barrel level readiness for the past 2 weeks now.

>>135741388
I hope you're not living here.

>>135745743
I remember the shift downward and then stabilization at $50, was actively trading various markets at that time. General consensus back then even was $100 won't happen again any time soon barring a major war beyond just Venezuela; the bets were typically on that 35-60ish range even back then, as people didn't expect as much sideways action as happened.

It will be interesting to watch at any rate.

File: 100s837.png (815KB, 1000x800px) Image search: [Google]

815KB, 1000x800px

>>135746403
Wouldn't the doubt of $100 be rested on a lack of demand more than production/supply? Venezuelans reserves are absolutely massive, which is why I thought they were a larger factor than their production itself. Just like China finding gold deposits contribute to gold even though it is untapped.

>>135742243
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

WHY DIDNT SPAIN MURDER THEIR INDIANS LIKE WE DID? LAZY FUCKS.

>>135746675
Reserves vs actual supply to market, as above anon noted is above 2% but not even double digits.

The smoothing out of oil to ~$50 had a lot to do with the advancement of shale. Over leveraged companies lost at times, but big players that were able to make it through the lowest ranges took advantage of their position as it rose, and potentially will rise more.

And I can't help but wonder about some collusion on some level between govt and certain entities in the market; it is in the USA's long term benefit to use shale to mess with other economies, as well as potentially being involved in CIA level actions in places like Syria and potentially Venezuela. Wouldn't be the first time.