Heads up: prognonses grain production falls

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This is big: for the first time in a long time the grain production prognosis is lower than the consumed amount.

Big grain producers/surplus food producers are America, Australia and Canada and they are experiencing a bit of drought. Big grain importers are Arab/middle eastern countries and heavily populated Asian ones. And although Asian countries usually export other food items Arabs don't.

High grain prices = higher unrest.

This will especially affect the Arab countries. It did in the beginning of the ''Arab spring' as well. Usually these countries are reliant on their dictators/government subsidizing grains for the populations, they do this with oil money. But oil is cheap and many of the dictators are already gone or have difficulty maintaining power.

Expect:

- new conflicts in middle eastern, heavily populated Asian countries and a number of African countries. (when countries get more unstable it causes enemy countries to try to further destabilize them, aka Arab spring)

- Increased deforestation

- More migration and refugees to especially Europe. which could create a lot of instability there due to welfare state collapsing, Euro collapsing, nationalistic parties gaining power, in short: it will fasten trends already happening.


Cheers,