2018 midterms

self bump

Voting Kid Rock in 2018 to defeat Debbie Stabenow in Michigan.

>>135469399
digits confirm

>>135468932
If you think the party in power gains seats during midterms you need to read a book kid.

>>135469643
Bush gained in 2002. The Senate map is unusually favourable for Republicans this time. Democrats' only potential pickups are Arizona and Nevada. Polls show Nevada neck and neck, but Arizona in Republican favour. And what can the Repubs win? Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia: all states which go to Republicans by double digits in Presidential races, even which MCCAIN won by double digits. Republicans will gain seats, only question is how many. Polls, as another example, already have McCaskill in Missouri significantly down any Republican challenger. I think you need to keep up with the news, kid.

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>>135468932
>Trump approval at 9999%
>All Republican seats are safe; no others are
>Every Republican candidate is effective
And yet it still isn't sure about half the country.

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>>135470135
>Bush gained in 2002.

After oh I don't know the worst terrorist attack in US history happened.

>>135470160
You have to uncheck the "safe" box if you want to model to consider those states

>>135469643
I'll back this up. In every midterm election since '06 it has been a bloodbath for the party in the White House. Dems won in red states and Republicans won in blue states. While the senate map is awful for the Democrats, they could certainly end up maintaining their minority plus or minus one seat. Although it's rough the Dems a favorable wind at their backs and a sagging GOP (not only Trump, but the entire GOP as well) approval could keep the Dems afloat. What doesn't get a lot of attention is the '18 gubernatorial map. Governors up for reelection in the northeast, upper midwest, winnable portions of the south, and southwest.

>>135470267
>Ignores every other point I make

>>135470135
>the polls are real now, the post

>>135470335
Exactly this. Oh, so the polls significantly understate support for Trump? What about Hillary's approval rating? Is she super popular too? Keep in mind on election day their approval rating was near-as-makes-no-difference.

>>135470274
Maybe I fucked it up. But I had all "R" states checked and all "D" states unchecked.

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>>135470333
>ignores Bush's war mongering at the time that turned everyone into blind patriotards.

Unless Trump stages a false flag like 9/11, he will lose seats that isn't even up for debate at this point. Judging by how awful he's doing and betraying his voters it will be very very bad year for the GOP.

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> Kid Rock isn't a meme & takes MI

> NV holds

> Red states like MT, IN & ND flip

> Maine is the key

Republican supermajority, 2018

>>135470290
>>135470439
>>135470469

Where can the Dems win? Potentially Arizona and Nevada; that's it. The Republicans have an opportunity to win in states where Trump's approval rating is averaging around 55% at the moment. That's fucking high considering the shit time he is having now with Congress. If you put 55% as his NATIONAL approval rating the Republicans win a supermajority according to this model. The point is clear: the Republicans have an opportunity to attack 5 seats, all of which in they usually win Presidential races by double digits, and in which a majority of citizens will approve of Trump. These seats are theirs to gain. You can't prove me wrong, nigger.

>>135470722
And who's going to show up? Oh yeah vote for the party that hasn't done shit.

Oh how's Obamacare repeal working for you?

>>135470722
Bush won Montana, WV, Indiana (in '04 and '12 with '08 being a fluke), and N Dakota by double digits in '04 and Democrats still picked up those seats in subsequent elections. How do you explain this, nigger?

>>135470804
Try stringing together a coherent argument instead of whining like a fucking child. In North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, and Missouri a majority approve of Trump. Even now, with the shitshow in Congress over Obongocare. Even now most people approve of Trump. That's not even considering the fact that these states usually vote Republican by double digits anyway, even when John McCain is being ass fucked in the rest of the country by King Nigger. If the election was held today, these states would go Trump. There's no evidence to suggest otherwise.

>>135471086
>In North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, and Missouri a majority approve of Trump.

>Trump is the GOP
>Trump is an outside fighting the GOP

You have to pick one faggot.

>>135471145
You think Trump is going to endorse a fucking Democrat? That's right - they approve of Trump, not the GOP. But Trump will endorse the GOP in these elections. Think before you post, it makes the board much better.

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>>135471086
Even with trump McCaskill has a fair chance.

The dems are re-branding themselves here to be more moderate to the point where their even considering being pro-life.
T.missourifag

>>135470804

Libs dont show up in midterms dumbshit. The only time they pick up is when the republicans show up even less. Trump will rally his base to support conservative candidates running for blue seats, candidiates that will likely run on Trumpish platforms, and people will show up to ensure there is enough of a majority to get shit like repealing niggercare done.

Remember a large portion of the democrat viting block is minorities who have severly depressed turnout in midterms, and illegals and dead people which wont work with voter fraud being investigated. Furthermore the DNC is bleeding money and wont be able to afford the level of campaigning and bussing people to polling places they were able to do in '16.

>>135471270
McCaskill is a meme candidate, who is perceived as being anti-Trump. She was only able to win in 2014 because her opponent was retarded. You know this.

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>>135471262
>all these senators didn't vote for my healthcare bill
>make sure you come out and vote for them this November

>>135471270
She also has pretty much every union supporter which is pretty big thing here because unions are still pro Dem because republicans keep being retarded with worker rights related issues.

>>135471262
Back to le_donald with you

>>135471400
Yes, Trump will endorse them over the Democrats.

>>135471327
>a majority to get shit like repealing niggercare done.

>give us the house in 2010
>give us the senate in 2014
>give us the presidency in 2016
>oppps we need even more seats in 2018!

BRILLIANT PLAN!

Keep spiting in your voters face. A lot of those senators who voted no on Trumpcare are up in 2018.

>>135471467
>Yes goy, how dare you post facts on a fact free board! You don't belong here.

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>>135471474
>>135471562
Seriously. go back

>>135471439
>She also has pretty much every union supporter which is pretty big thing here because unions are still pro Dem because republicans keep being retarded with worker rights related issues.

Can't wait for the GOP to pass federal right to work laws and really piss off unions.

>>135471400

Only 3 senators killed the skinny repeal and none of them are up this time anyway.

The republicans running for blue seats will certainly be running to end that pile of shit, and that along with trumps endorsement will get them very far against candidates trying to hold blue seats in red states with a severely underfunded party with a largely apathetic base behind them.

>>135471621
I'll stay right here, faggot. I know ou hate reading facts, I understand its not in your tradition.

The Dems in '06 held or picked up 9 senate seats won by Bush in his '04 reelection bid. And Bush won some of those states by 20 points.
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2006
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004

>>135471560

Ryancare was shit anyway and everyone knew it. The biggest blow was losing the skinny repeal vote, which comes down to 3 senators who aren't running this time anyway. Please use your brain next time.

>>135471933
Didn't the GOP majorities vote twice to repeal the ACA after their '14 midterm victories? Didn't Obama veto both times?

Of course. The GOP only did that for show. Now that there are consequences for their actions they're much more careful. The "skinny" shit was a bad idea. There's no way that Ryan would have given them a conference. He would simply have passed it. The August recess is coming up and everyone wants to move onto the tax code. Ryan's whole "brand" is as a budget guy. This is where he's supposed to shine. He wants to get to that and he would have done everything to get healthcare out of the way as fast as possible.

>>135470290
06 was because of Iraq war and rep. Intern sex scandal.
10 was reaction to Obamacare
14 was extended reaction to Obamacare
18 will probably be flat in house, with 4-5 Senate seats going R as D seats in red States get voted out (25 of 33 Senate seats in 2018 are D)

>>135474762
Midterms always shape up around something and it's always negative toward the party occupying the White House.

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>>135470290
>In every midterm election since '06 it has been a bloodbath for the party in the White House
We are outside the realm of "usual." As 2018 approaches the Democrats will continue to spiral into insanity and violence, there will be article after article talking shit on working white people, black masked thugs will attack fundraising events and rallies in the name of liberalism, and sooner or later one of Bernie's followers is going to succeed in killing someone. Typically the party out of power has greater fundraising and engagement, that the Dems have neither at this point should be a serious red flag for those expecting them to pull a tea party wave. Pic related, and by the way it's not by a little, Republicans are outraising them by 2 to 1.

>>135476665
I agree that the fundraising for the Dems looks weak so far, but they've got a year to go before the campaign truly begins and the voters start paying attention. We've got a year to go. A year of "who knows what" in terms of policy outcomes and governing mishaps and professional media outrage. My next summer the fundraising picture and the political situation generally could look very different. While the GOP has a fundraising edge so far, the Dems have seen an explosion in their recruiting. There are a lot of Dems who are optimistic about their chances in '18. Again, it's early though. We'll have to see.

Dems probably pick up 4-5 seat in the house.
"Hold" serve in the senate

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>>135468932
He's got my vote.
Prasie Kek.

>>135469399
>>135470485
Kid Rock will outperform Trump in Michigan.
This is straight obvious to those of us here. Especially against Stabenow.

>>135468932
Please save Virginia. Please save Virginia. Please save Virginia. Please save Virginia. Please save Virginia. Please save Virginia. Please save Virginia. Please save Virginia. Please save Virginia. Please save Virginia.

Does that one indian dude has a chance against Warren in Mass or is it too much of a dem stronghold?

>>135477994
There was a small, no name pollster that had that governor race at a tie recently.

>>135478173
I'm going doing everything in my power to get as much as nova red. Please volunteer I don't want to see that Clinton shill get in for Governor. It would just mean more gibs for spics

One thing that I haven't seen commented on is that Democrats lost a greater percentage of midterm voters to Trump and Bernie than they lost overall. I hope Bannon is looking out for candidates to take advantage of that.

>>135470485

Joe Manchin will probably keep his seat. Jon Tester might too.

>>135468932
lets meme some independents into those blue states and kick out the faggot RINOS in red states guys

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>>135468932
every state trump won will go red.

>>135479329
Joe is pissing off voters in West Virginia with his hardcore anti-gun stance. He is finished.

>>135479898
Why?

>>135480575
because the people can see now that congress will not work together in a bipartisan way so the only way to implement an agenda is to let one party take control for a while until they dont like them anymore, then swing the other way. They also can see that some in congress will defect from party lines when voting so they need a cushion of seats to pass legislation. Lastly, senate races are on a statewide basis so it makes no sense for a state that voted for trump to put someone in office who would actively try to sabotage the agenda that they voted for in november.

>>135481955
You may have a point about divided and united government but that will require a major media campaign by the GOP to sell that idea.
>it makes no sense for a state that voted for trump
How do explain the states that supporter Bush in '04 voting for Dems in '06. There were 9 cases of it. Or for that matter the states that voted for Obama twice voting for GOP senators in '10 and '14?

>>135479329

Manchin can be worked with, He's one of the few dem's that isn't a 100% obstructionist

Even so with 52 atm Trump can only afford 1 defection (usually one of McCain, Collins or Murkowski), 57 or 58 gives a greater buffer

>>135470485
I would venture to guess Bill Nelson is vulnerable in Florida

>>135470485
nevada will not fuckin hold, nevada here this is new jew california and most of the people who live here are rich white guys and didnus who live in the ghetto.

>>135468932
I can't wait for more (((polls))) !

With all the talk about the senate, what about gubernatorial races? No one is talking about those.

>>135471045
You have to look at the factors driving turnout. Dems are running on trannys in the army, gun control, and muh russia. They are playing to coastal elites and will bit drive turnout in these relevant states with their message.

>>135482450
>How do explain the states that supporter Bush in '04 voting for Dems in '06. There were 9 cases of it. Or for that matter the states that voted for Obama twice voting for GOP senators in '10 and '14?

thats simple. bush got us in a war that many disagreed with and obama passed obamacare that many did not vote for him to do. Trump has to do something that his supporters really dont want in order for them to turn on him.

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>>135468932
>It uses Hrumkf's (((((approval rating))))

So as reliable as Nate Pewter's predictions?

>>135484377
I think we have a year to go. I read the Dems brought out their "Better-S.J.W" tag line and it's hilarious that they think it matters at this point. I have no idea what the race is going to be about but the economy and the workings and functions of the government (corruption.) We'll see how things shape up.

>>135484531
How about failing to get healthcare repeal through? With a year to go it's too early to tell, but what if he doesn't get tax reform either? What if the country goes into the midterms late next fall without any major legislative accomplishments? Wouldn't that piss of all of his supporters?

Dems will 100% lose senate seats in 2018. The reason is simple. all of these seats were won by Democrats during 2012, when Obama was on the ticket. Obama is extremely popular with Democrats and in particular he substantially increased black turnout. Now these Democrats are running without Obama on the ticket. They have to win by themselves and a lot of them simply don't have the popularity to do that.

Hasn't the Democrat fundraising been really bad?

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My fellow Nevadans better not fuck up this mid-term

>>135468932
>Texas
>Red

LMAO, sure, drumpftard.

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>>135484929

> They said Texas was in play

A lot of Democrats seem unwilling to admit that the Democrat party gained massive popularity in 2008 not because the party itself became more popular but because Obama was very popular. Obama was lightning in a bottle. He massively increased turnout among black people. A large part of why Trump won is because black turnout decreased which lead to a larger percentage of voters being white. The same fucking thing will happen in 2018. Black turnout will remain down because Obama was the only thing they cared about. Niggers don't know anything about the senate, they just knew one of them was president and they wanted to help him.

>>135485156
Have blacks ever turned up for mid terms?

>>135484741
not really, the people can recognize that those were the senate's shortcomings, not the president's and that the only way to fix that problem would be to elect more republicans so like I said, there would be a cushion of seats in case of congressmen defecting from party line votes. It would have to be something that was directly his fault, such as him send massive amounts of military to the middle east, or signing an EO that would make some illegals become citizens, etc.

>>135485156
>>135485287
This is one major reason the Dems are so fucked. You should never bet your success on a group of people so unreliable, many of whom don't even see themselves as Americans, at least not really.

Ok lets say that the demorats get fully BTFO in 2018 (for sure they are getting BTFOed to some degree) the issue is that it's looks scary for the republicans in 2020 and 2022 since they got more to lose than the democrats.

Is it possible that the democrats will be fully destroyed by then, to not even recover when it's in their favour for those two years?

>>135485287
Black % of the voters went from 13% in 2008 to 11% in 2010. I'd imagine with no Obama in power we'll likely see ~9% in 2018.

>>135485649

By 2020 /ourguys/ embedded will be ready.

>>135485649
It's very unlikely dems will be able to retake the senate for a very long time, even in presidential years, because their voters are largely concentrated in specific states and the senate is a flat 2 per state. Dems have a solid chance to retake the house in 2020 but will lose it again in 2022. Bottom line is dems will not have a solid hold on our country for a long time. Also, their betting everything on demographic changes is really stupid because Repubs can get the majority of the hispanic vote if they run someone like Rubio.

>>135485960
But I don't like the gay robot

>>135486074
It doesn't have to be him specifically but any token hispanic will work. I'm just saying it's retarded that the dems are basing their whole plan on demographic changes when Repubs can easily win that demographic.

>>135468932
>why does everyone believe oregon is not democrat?

>>135477170
>spend assload on Bernie
>he ends up being conspired against by the DNC
>Berniecrats pushing to go further left
>DNC releases centrist plan

You really think you're going to get money from those people. The democrats fucked up. Progressives are pushing for more leftist candidates and will not support the centrists that have reasonable chances of winning

https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2017/07/09/ohio-senate-brown-mandel-trump-portman-approval/

Wow. Take a look at this. Republicans 8 points up. In Ohio! You fucking bet if they can win Ohio in 2018, with Trump being unpopular as he is now nationally, they are going to pick up states like Montana, WV, Indiana, Missouri, ND, etc. At the moment, it looks like large gains in the Senate are imminent. I hold my prediction that if the Senate election was held today the new Senate would be 57 Republicans to 43 Dems. With some improvement in Trump's legislative agenda, a supermajority is genuinely within reach.

>>135471621
>Everyone who disagrees with me is redit

>>135477933
>Kid Rock will outperform Trump in Michigan.
>This is straight obvious to those of us here. Especially against Stabenow.
why?
he hasn't even released a platform yet.

If you think I'm not voting D any time during the MAGA years you're straight retarded. I've been thinking I should register R in case there's a primary option.