The China-Russia-Iran Triad and American Strategy in Asia

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At present, the primary areas of concern for the creation of this triad are: the South China Sea, the Black Sea, and the Near East from Iran to the Mediterranean Sea. If the conflicts in these areas resolve unfavorably for the United States then the C-R-I triad will be free to develop without significant threat from the Western powers.
The most urgent problem area is along the Eastern shore of the Black Sea. Russia has already extended its control over Crimea and is actively pressing southward into Georgia. A direct land corridor between Russia and Iran is likely to be opened if no action is taken by the West. This will allow quick transport of oil and gas, accelerating the growth of the triad.
Added to this, are the problems presented by Turkey’s deteriorating relationship with the West. Should Turkey’s allegiance switch fully to Russia then Western control over maritime access to the Mediterranean will be lost and the Black Sea will be dominated by Russia.
A triad aligned Turkey would also allow for the development of a land based route to the Mediterranean from Iran. This would bring Syria and Lebanon into the bloc as well. And Iraq would likely prefer to be included rather than bypassed entirely.
The loss of Turkey would give the triad effective control of the Eastern Mediterranean. In the long term, nations in North Africa, Southern Europe and Eastern Europe may be drawn away from the EU and toward the burgeoning economic spheres of Tehran, Ankara and Moscow.

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In the far East, China’s expansion in the South China Sea undermines American naval power in the region. With the failure of the Trans Pacific Partnership, China is poised to extend its influence in Southeast Asia, Indonesia and into Oceania. Sea based trade can also be expanded between China and Iran, as well as with the underdeveloped African nations where China has invested heavily in recent years.
An increased Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean may also help to persuade India to join the triad. Much as Iraq will not wish to be bypassed by Iran’s corridor to the Mediterranean, India will likely wish to take part in China’s expanded sea routes.
Regardless of Western action or inaction, greater economic cooperation among China, Russia and Iran is inevitable. Russia and Iran will not find friends in the West, and China’s ambitions as global hegemon can only be achieved by consolidating control over the poorer nations of central and southeast Asia, and by exploiting the vast natural resources to be found in Africa.

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Option #1 -- Let it happen
The United States may allow the triad to form and develop fully. Ideally, this would include the development of poorer central Asian and African countries, tremendous growth of the global economy and a general improvement in living conditions. This option assumes full cooperation with the US and those nations currently in its sphere rather than ongoing conflict related to economic, cultural, religious or ideological differences.
Option #2 -- Preempt the forging of the triad
The effectiveness of partnership among the triad nations can be limited. This will require restricting Russia’s influence in the Black Sea region, halting Iran’s push westward to the Mediterranean and reversing China’s expansion in the South China Sea.
Option #3 -- Counter the triad
The triad can be countered by increased economic cooperation among the US, EU and their current allies including India, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, Turkey and, of course, Japan and South Korea. An increase in development projects in the Middle East and Africa is also essential.
Option #4 -- Join
The United States may partner with China and work to bring forth a truly globalized economy. This option requires the United States to voluntarily surrender the mantle of preeminent global power.

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Recommendations

#1 -- Strengthen Indian Ties and Integrate other Allies
India is the most important object to American interests. Alliance with India must be preserved in all cases. Should India be allowed to align with China, US economic power will deteriorate rapidly. Increased cooperation and integration by the US and allies with India is essential to preventing the loss of the Western hegemony. India should be positioned to become the primary regional power in Asia.
In order to prevent Chinese sea trade from dominating the Indian Ocean, India’s navy must be greatly expanded to at least equal the USN’s current presence in the region. India should have the ability to project power south and east toward Indonesia and Oceania, and west to the Arabian Sea and Africa’s east coast.
Cooperation between India and the Arab Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, should be encouraged. Saudi influence should be extended south and west into Sunni Africa, in particular the nations on the east coast where Chinese influence is most threatening. Partnership among Sunni nations in Africa, the Middle East and Indonesia, supported by maritime security from India may be developed as a strong counter to the land based C-R-I triad.

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#2 -- Secure Turkish Loyalty
The other key piece is Turkey. Under no circumstances can Turkey be allowed to change sides. Presently, due to the unreliability of Erdogan’s government, Turkey must be viewed as NATO territory overseen by a non-NATO government. Precedence must be given to NATO interests, even over Turkey’s national sovereignty.
A West-aligned Turkey is essential and if Erdogan cannot be brought back into a friendly relationship with the West then a new government is needed in Turkey. Whether the new government is more closely tied to Europe or Saudi Arabia is a potential problem area. The best compromise may be for the creation of an independent Kurdistan, existing in the Saudi sphere while western Turkey comes under the European umbrella, potentially as an EU member state. In any case, strong support for Kurdish sovereignty should be given.

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#3 -- Disrupt Stability in the Middle East*
Continued conflict in the Middle East should help to delay the maturity of the C-R-I triad. At least initially, the oil and gas trade will be a major component of this triad, particularly on its western face. As renewable energy use becomes more prevalent, the value of the oil and gas trade will decline and so too will the value of developing land and sea corridors between Russia, Iran and the Mediterranean.
Consolidation of the Sunnis in the Near East, especially in Iraq and Syria, is desirable in order to limit Iran’s westward influence. The current environment in the Levant is decidedly anti-West. For this reason, speedy resolution of the conflicts there is not in the best interest of the United States. Chaos, in the short and medium terms, is more advantageous to the US than to Iran. If peace is to be brought to the region, it must be done when popular opinion is more favorably disposed to the US and its allies.

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#4 -- Maintain Separation between Russia and Iran*
The possible land route between Iran and Russia along the Black Sea’s east coast should be obstructed. Russia must not be allowed to annex or otherwise occupy Georgia. The European Union should take the lead in protecting this corridor. This will require the establishment of an EU military independent from NATO. Direct conflict between Russia and the EU should not be sought, but significant, materiel, diplomatic and economic support should be provided to ensure Georgian security.
Instability between Armenia and Azerbaijan must be exploited to further complicate Russian-Iranian ambitions. An escalation between the two states will be of supreme importance should the West fail to protect Georgia from Russian aggression. Here, as in the Levant, chaos will be of more use to the United States and its allies than to Russia and Iran.

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#5 -- Assert Power in the Western Pacific*
China’s expansion in the western Pacific must be countered and, if possible, reversed. The volatile regime in North Korea can be used by the United States to exert more military pressure on the region. The removal of this regime is unlikely to be as advantageous as its continued existence and provocative stance against the US.
Incremental measures must be taken in an attempt to eventually remove Chinese military installations in the South China Sea. Beginning with economic sanctions and stopping just short of direct military confrontation around the islands. If allied actions against the triad’s western face meet with success, then economic pressure may be enough to force China to abandon its expansionist policies.

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Conclusions

The United States faces a legitimate threat from a possible economic partnership built around the triad of China, Russia and Iran. Together, these three have the ability to create a tremendously prosperous trade bloc, unifying nearly the entire Asian continent. This bloc would have the ability to expand rather quickly to the poorer nations of Europe, Africa and the Pacific. The greatest danger is the bloc’s potential to draw India and Turkey away from the Western orbit. This would allow unrestrained access to the Mediterranean, and the Indian Ocean.
The United States and its allies are, however, in a good position to preempt this partnership from reaching its full potential. With proper nurturing of existing relationships with India and management of the deteriorating relationship with Turkey, both of these nations can be prevented from joining the C-R-I triad.
Disruption of the development of land based routes in the Levant and in the Black Sea region will hinder the economic growth of Russia and Iran, thereby weakening the western portion of the triad significantly. Along with increased military pressure on Russia from an independent EU military, a West-aligned Kurdistan will halt the triad’s westward ambitions. Western aid for Georgia and escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan can stall the construction of a direct land route from Iran to Russia.
An improved Indian navy, better cooperation between that nation and the Arab Gulf States, together with an increase in development projects in Africa, will frustrate Chinese plans for greater sea-based trade through the Indian Ocean. American military presence in the Western Pacific, necessary due to the North Korean threat, coupled with economic sanctions, will pressure China to slow or abandon its expansion in the South China Sea.

>>134625870
This seems reasonable, but given their economic malaise, and rising age structure I don't think the EU can handle Russia in maintaining the corridor.
Turkey as an ally is important but if it comes at the cost of the continual conversion of Europe into Turkey it should be abandoned, most of those nukes could be re-stationed. I think you're overestimating Russia's willingness to surrender it's regional authority to China, they favor being the primus inter pares
A variety of those other nations like Indonesia have poor relations with China and large demographic distrust, plus the devout Islamic states I doubt will side with state atheist China.

>>134626213
>Cooperation between India and the Arab Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, should be encouraged.
difficult

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>>134625870
Finally, someone with intelligence who know how to play geopolitics based with resources in mind. I go over everything you've said consistently in my head. It's the biggest issues in the world today. That entire region will dictate the next era. I applaud you.

a strong Russia means a strong Europe, they are their biggest trading partner
Europe took a much bigger hit than Russia did with all the sanction stuff
will only help inflate America's prosperity as well, Russia's got tremendous skill and endless potential
all those southern nations can fuck right off with their entire law structure built around a violent religion which is hindering peace, progress, and prosperity everywhere else as a result

>>134629156
I think their violent religion is a good thing. It keeps them fighting amongst themselves, keeps the government of those nation focused on land warfare. Which leave them little room to develop any naval capacity. Leaving our naval fleet more free and open. Europe can trade with India and the US. Russia should never gain anymore influence or power than they have already taken.

A strong Russia is a mean a weaker west. Unless you want to go for the whole "lets all join together", route.

Let is happen. U.s.a are the Jews of the world. If this happens we all win.

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If India managed to get a navy like USN this is what they would control. The prized possession would be the Indian Ocean.

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>>134625870

End the atlanticist hegemony.

>>134629455
>A strong Russia is a mean a weaker west
no it doesn't. It means a wealthier client with plenty of goods to barter
>go for the whole "lets all join together", route
yes, I wan to live in an ideal utopia
>violent religion is a good thing. It keeps them fighting amongst themselves
well a. good because fuck them, but b. they keep flooding the west in an attempt to seek refuge from conflict
their ongoing wars are worsening our daily lives

>>134630067
Dugin has no real basis, he want to annex northern bits of China, when the Chinese are sending million s of illegals into their borders.

>>134630528

I think he advocates for a eurasian alliance with China against Atlanticist expansionism, not war with China.

>>134625870
Isn't it more important to deal with the domestic issues such as an extremely divisive culture under constant subversion and the increasing power of 'cults' and personal interest groups in western governments?

Where does Israel fit into this?

>Kurdistan
Kurdistan is indeed an unrealized potential. There is the possibility of Kurds seizing 'kurdish lands' in Turkey in conjunction with Syria seizing the southern part of the Turkish coast. This performs the main function of creating division between Syria and Turkey while strengthening an independent Kurdistan (as well as strengthening kurdistan's recognition for a legitimate existence through the syrian people). Since Syria and Turkey are almost destined to be in the same bloc, this friction would be very welcome. It is better in the long term to capitalize on Turkey's current alignment with the west to weaken them instead of hoping they won't turn.

>Europe
The Russian threat is ingrained amongst Western Europeans. Visegrad will be more important than the EU and America should secure their loyalty as a priority.
>Saudi
A powderkeg waiting to erupt. A war of succession with much profit for all involved. It is difficult to say what shape the gulf states shall be in during the coming years. I am convinced that we let them get away with their bullshit because all the money we pay them for resources and political favors will wind up back in our pockets through the sales of arms and mercenaries. Also the Yemenese are very underestimated.

On another note, possibly the biggest mistake in the Middle East for the West was whacking Massoud who had the potential to westernize Afghanistan and who had a reason for his people not to side with Russia.

>>134625870
I think millennials vastly over estimate China. They literally operate as our producers. Their military is weak, their technology is shoddy. Their culture is fractured.
They have a hell of a lot of issues.
Don't think that they are even close to on equal footing with the US. it's just not accurate. There isn't a comparison the US still has a hegemony that operates at a depth unknown to most

>>134630702
he advocate claiming northern china, and having them annex southeast Asia like Vietnam as compensation.

>>134630223
Ah and this is where we find out why the world is as fucked as it is.

Countries have begun to see themselves as privy to world politics before sorting themselves out.

Prosperity and happpiness can't possibly come from a strong nation's people, no it only comes from cut throats geopolitics at the expense of your country's people.

>>134632160
despite me being in a very lonely camp, I refuse to get off my high horse of morals and principles
enemies of freedom don't deserve any
just like unproductive lazy shits don't deserve to take part in the consumer lifestyle

>>134631316
Yeah this. The west is big business for china. Though taken thoughts steps are merely security. Just like how America tries to desperately cling to its dominance by picking on weak countries