Who wants to hear the story of the yield curve?

what is it?

Does it have big tits?

POST IT YOU STUPID NIGGER

>>131200600
Friends, its a very long story.

As this will take me some time to prepare, I will slowly post links with relevant information.

If one would like to make a lot of money off a surefire market move, one should follow this thread.

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Well?

First Link

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds-idUSL1N1JK1C0

>>131201036
Hold on, does any of this matter to those of us without money?

Been trading for years, this should be good. Not the first holy grail I've seen being offered

>>131201127
I'm laughing at how autistic op is

"a surefire market move" topkek

>>131201005
Also relevant to this thread, is the current political climate.

My peers believe that one 'catalyst' can send these chain of events off much quicker then I think they will happen, but the consensus is by August an idiot will see what is happening.

>>131201127
$500 in options can land you roughly $100k if everything is happening the way I think it will, but, if you do not have money to spare my advice is be an extremely beneficial worker to whatever company you owe your loyalty to.

>>131201177
While I appreciate the trust, make your own decisions. I am purely providing information.

>>131201224
Poorly worded I agree. It's more of a 'Macro' move. I hope your mother doesn't know you use a Nazi Flag on a Mongolian Image Board.

>>131201574
what options you talking about bruh? Index puts?

>>131201574
>whatever company you owe your loyalty to
I don't work, have minimal savings, abhor any sort of gambling and have severe mistrust of anybody offering to handle my money or offering opportunity.
Doesn't mean you're not for real, just that I'm paranoid and mistrustful. My idea of investing is prepping non-perishable food caches.
Have a bump anyway, just because it's not for me doesn't mean it's shit.

The next piece of information is very important, and I will provide multiple examples of this phenomena.

Become familiar with this phrase;
'A Flight From Risk To Safety'.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-says-stock-markets-goldilocks-environment-wont-last-long-2017-06-12
http://www.businessinsider.com/biotech-drugmakers-healthcare-new-stock-market-champion-2017-6
http://www.businessinsider.com/ethereum-price-flash-crash-2017-6

And finally, become familiar with the total market cap of the 'crypto' market, shown here.

https://coinmarketcap.com

>>131202109
I'm not the largest fan of Put Options unless one is over 75% certain of the move.
Make your own choices, as I am going to purely to provide information and then my conclusion based on the information provided.

>>131202153
For someone in your situation, you may not even notice a difference (unless the tension this causes creates an unstable political climate), but just the same you can impress your peers with the knowledge you can gain from purely reading the links I'm providing.

Complacency is the next theme.

I am not a fan of complacency.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/06/22/this-is-a-hakuna-matata-market/#51fb440b5b7f

We will now look at who controls the majority of moves on Wall St.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-quants-run-wall-street-now-1495389108

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>>131200600
I WANT TO HEAR THE STORY OF THE SNEEEEL!! TOLD BY DOLAN HIMSELF!!! PLEASE OP, CAN YOU DO THIS FOR MEEE??

based anon

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>>131202542
>>For someone in your situation, you may not even notice a difference
>tfw rural dirt-peasants are insulated against market volatility
This thread deserves a few more bumps, compared to the trash elsewhere on the board. Lurking to try and read what the fuck is going to happen.

Finally, we will tie some of the information together for those who did not read some of the articles.

Then I will write my conclusion with supporting evidence.

Ethereum is a 'crypto' currency on a now very large, completely unprotected marketplace. This marketplace is now worth roughly $100bn. Ethereum went from $320 to $.10 because of a new trend of completely automated trading. Prior to this, the crypto market has already been weak (compared to the month of May where my son made $10k), and now the crypto market is continuing a down trend because of large amounts of money being withdrawn due to inherent risk of this marketplace;

'A Flight From Risk to Safety'

>>131203946
WHAT IS SAFE

'A Flight From Risk to Safety'

This has already been noticed in protected markets, such as NASDAQ and NYSE. Tech stocks have been sideways or in a downtrend, and Healthcare stocks are showing gains. This phenomena in the past have indicated larger market downtrends. 'Crypto' as of today has taken a huge hit and seems to show no signs of slowing. This is not the only piece of evidence.

>>131203946

Hi Martin, I'm a fan :>

Send eth to a poor soul :(

0xa397078a3b31b7566c6da1f8bdeec69ce50a1f0d

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>>131204235
Far, far away from others. There is no other form of safety, just illusions of it.
>>131204353
So digital currency is taking a huge shit right now, is that the takeaway?

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I now return to the issue of automated trading. As of writing this almost all markets are dominated by 'Quant' firms, or completely algorithmic trading.

There are various ways that quant firms trade, more on that later.

For those that pay attention to the markets, it is almost clear to the naked eye looking at intra-day trading that algorithms are manipulating price, shown in the attached picture.

For those unfamiliar with markets, the bumps in the picture were without reason and when looking at 'Candle-Stick' charts the fluctuations could be predicted by a small child.

>>131204745

You should listen.

tl;dr

OP is suggesting to watch the crypto markets as everyone will be pulling out and we'll see a return of prominent currency to minimal buy-in levels which could or could not be also forced by people trying to make even more money when the currency crashes.

Invest when things like Eth or BTC is low, even 500$, and get a ridiculous return in the future as the markets becomes safe again.

>>131204480
Not Martin, but a empathizer with his situation.

>>131204745
No.

>>131204910
No.

Another link I provided shows the current state of the bond market.

I will post it again here, as it speaks for itself;

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds-idUSL1N1JK1C0

>>131205064
Then quit linking non-archived paywall/adblocked websites and maybe someone might be able to glean whatever the fuck it is you're trying to convey.

>>131205379
If you are not able to get past a simple paywall then you should not be following this thread,

>>131205516
I shouldn't have to archive every page myself just to read it. I own land, convince me this is better than that.

>>131205064

Me as well, feel free to send eth anyways.

Seriously though, once pension funds begin to fail as is seen in Illinois, do you think the bond market will ready?

I don't see the prospects as very bright. The fed has tough times ahead.

>>131200600
If I was a Central Bank, why don't I print money and keep purchasing shares, because the money I print has an extremely low money velocity and therefore doesn't create inflation? Even if the general economy declines, as a Central Bank, I can ensure that stock prices remain high forever. Right? What am I missing from this story. All the doomers have been wrong to date, and the Globalists have at least won the argument about QE. What evidence do you have to offer to prove otherwise?

T. Family with Private Banking.

>>131205750

>to date

Next we will look at in progress Macro trends with more depth, with a focus on inflation and the Federal Banks 'Hawkish' Attitude,

The Federal Banks of the United States believe that the economy is strong, as shown by various statements from representatives;

https://www.ft.com/content/4f2af056-57a9-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2?mhq5j=e2

Inflation (and the bond market) disagrees;
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-mester-inflation-idUSKBN19E24D

>>131205516

Fucking retarded logic

>let me explain stuff but make it hard to even know what the fuck I'm even explaining and gate it

>>131205750
If you are so certain of no correction, however slight, then why are you reading this thread?

As I was posting I was writing my conclusion, it is almost ready.

Again, make your own conclusions, with your own information, I am here purely to share.

>>131205996
Dude. If Inflation ever actually returns to the market, the Globalists and Socialists are fuuuuuuuucccccckkkkkkeeeedddddd. Oh god. It would be the apocalypse for George Soros and Bernie Sanders.

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>>131206271
Please continue.

>>131206271
I appreciate your insights OP. Don't get me wrong. But QE is the golden-haired first born son of Globalism. It's the only part of this regime that is functional. Remove QE from the paradigm, and Globalism has nothing.

>>131206271
Bumping just because I'm thankful for quality posts. I miss the old CIA shills :/ now it's all just hate threads

>>131206313

Deflation would be worse for those with high debt to income ratios, aka almost entire u.s. population.

It'll be one or the other, I'm hoping inflation with my crypto holdings.

>>131206014
Does the recent fed portfolio reduction play into your prediction / theory?

>>131207112
If it's Deflation, then that gives TREMENDOUS power to Socialists and Globalists. Money printing and entitlement programs not only become feasible, but necessary. Deflation is the far better scenario for the Left, because the Left has ways of dealing with Deflation. Remember. Deflation is what put FDR into power in the US.

Bump. Let's hear it

>>131207399

That's what I am afraid of, but I don't think the Fed is hitting inflation targets, they are higher than 2% from what I can tell.

But deflation could be painted as a way to help student loan and mortgage debt, yet would be a long term catastrophe.

>>131207759
They always portray it to be lower because that way they can print more

>>131207923
And in a deflationary environment, they can afford to print money. It becomes economically and politically the right play.

>>131207399
>>131207759
I'm assuming you're speaking Fed specific, because in a deflationary period they could increase the money supply greatly for 'dem programs and quickly destroy what would generally be a good period for normal people.

I am of the opinion that from roughly Mid July to Late January the U.S. economy will enter a Bear Market.

I am unsure of the effects, and I am unsure of the 'depth' of the drop, but I can say with roughly 70% certainty that we are seeing numerous precursors for a bear market.

The Bond Market typically foreshadows Stock Market movement, and we are seeing levels equivalent to December 2007, shown by a link from Reuters now posted twice.

We are seeing complacency and companies with objectively minimal value get admired for being 'paragons' in this market. Lyft and Uber are valued at $7.5 Billion and $50 Billion respectively. These companies are just placeholders, they do not provide the service they are simply the way that the consumer and the service provider come in contact, so what value do these companies actually provide? A 'good looking' interface? These examples are the first ones that come to mind and one can look at 'Social-Media' applications for other examples.

'A Flight From Risk to Safety' shows that this bear market may already be occurring. If 'Crypto' continues its downfall it shows that large amounts of money (therefore powerful people) are of the opinion that not only can 'Crypto' not last ($100bn for a completely unproven product? who can actually find good examples of prominent people truly believing that this form of currency will replace government operated ones), but the fact that this complacent market can not last.

The Fed is raising rates without U.S. economy strength. I am not going into an economic lesson to explain this, Inflation targets are being completely missed yet the fed remains irrationally hawkish.

The Ethereum crash shows a larger issue, automated trading is dangerous and can be abused, If a hedge fund decides on monday to change its stance from bullish to neutral, pulling large sums of money from the S&P 500, how will Algos react? I do not expect a complete crash but the uncertainty is threatening

cont

>>131203907
Pretty much in the same boat as you but I'm also interested in what OP has to say

>>131208384
Actually, there would be only positive consequences for America if we jacked up government spending, gave out entitlement programs, and printed more money in a deflationary environment. Deflation is like bizzaro economics, in that you are rewarded for doing nothing in the economy rather than investing in the economy to generate growth. People put up with inflation because deflation is so much worse.

>>131208620
I am reformatting, the 2000 character limit makes my conclusion read awkwardly.

>>131208663
But yields should rise in that period as well.

>>131208902
Dude. If it's anything like the Great Depression, people will be DESPERATE to invest in ANYTHING. You have to understand that back in the 30's, nobody had any money, therefore no business could sell anything, which meant that there was no point in investing in businesses. Only the government was buying goods and services, in the forms of roads and entitlement programs, so the government was the 'last growing enterprise' so to speak. Hitler understood this as well, so did Japan, which was why they boomed in the 30's (not to mention the Soviets also did very well in that period.)

People always prefer to put their money in business, because business is efficient. But when the businesses die off, only then do they go to the Government.

>>131209194
The Great Depression, while a deflationary period, is not indicative of all deflationary periods or even most deflationary periods. Nor is a depression always associated with deflation.

>>131208780
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-when-investors-should-start-worrying-about-rising-bond-yields-2017-02-23

>>131209619
>The Great Depression, while a deflationary period, is not indicative of all deflationary periods or even most deflationary periods. Nor is a depression always associated with deflation.

True. But take a look at Japan as another example. Japan was the very first to pioneer QE and they have a debt ratio of something stupid like 300 Debt-to-GDP. Yet did their yields rise during this crisis? No. Because people were again willing to put their money with the government because the businesses were no longer growing by leaps and bounds. So the point still stands, that government becomes an attractive investment target when private enterprise fails to attract investment from a lack of demand.

I can not continue

I am sorry for providing a half finished story

I am unsure if I will be able to reply to future posts in this thread

>>131210018
Way to be a cock-tease, OP.

Loool

>>131210018
Is it Candlejack? Did he ge

>>131210018
Dude it's the internet no one cares just post your stuff. Tell me: is Kansas safe?

>>131210018
Explain. Now.

When was the last tIme a presidenT wIth full majoritieS in all parts of government COuld not pass through caMpaIgN promises?

Corruption?

Lies?

Why is it that the Fed remains irrationally hawkish?

It is not backed by economic data.

When looking at the current market state, why is it so close to all time highs?

Personally, do you feel confident in the future of this country?

Does anyone you know feel confident?

Then why is it up?

On what basis?

What is holding it up?

Complacency?

.

>>131210131
fuck off with your gay ass candlejack bullsh

>>131210018
nigga went to diversify his bonds most likely

>>131210809
IDK what you are implying, but if the plan is to crash the economy in order to implement a new agenda, that's the equivalent of burning your house down with you trapped inside it. If you survive the carnage, then you can rebuild the house to whatever you want. But only if you survive.

Shock doctrine works better when you attempt to burn someone else's house down, because then you are guaranteed to survive AND you get to build a new house.

>>131200600
Hello zerohedge! Yes please tell us about the yield curve

>>131201574
I've got $500

>>131205516
Then post in >>>/biz/

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sorry

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>>131210809
>ITS COMING

>>131210809
When the next crash comes they need to be able to drop rates to try and deal with it. The problem is that we're late in the cycle, the recovery in the real economy has been anemic at best, and they've papered over the problems with QE, blowing a series of asset bubbles in the process. The next one will be quite the show.

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>>131201177
Gonna bottom out soon buy buy buy!

>>131210809
ITS COMIN

>>131201005
Wait... So it's a pyramid scheme?
Don't say another word...
... I'm in.

OP is saying that financial collapse is imminent, we are going back to 2008

Strap yourselves in, boys.

>>131210809
WCLWITWPDTOWC.

>>131202245
which coin do I buy now?

I got in when etherium was near it's peak, lost about 50 bucks just buying different coins and moving them around. Sitting on some eth and waves and dogeshit

what do i put my money into?

>>131213805
Memecoin

>>131212822
kek I love this image but bancor fags are getting BTFO really hard right about now

>>131213805
Litecion

>>131213805

Eth at its peak?

I remember when bitcoins were £10 per. Now they are £2000 per.

Eth is what, £30 per at the moment or something? Sensible bet is just to buy in with an amount you can afford to lose, and then hope it starts to climb like bitcoin did.

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>>131210809
2 spoopy 4 me

>>131213960
I'm still not convinced that if the shit hits the fan they (the government, banks) won't pull the plug on crypto conversion to fiat. There are limited channels out of crypto, and I've heard enough stories of accounts being frozen to make me leery.

>>131213960
more like 237ish right now, not 30

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>>131212812
What did you do?

>>131213960
Yea eth is about 300 USD right now, you scared me and I looked at my wallet

0xF6fa61ED6eb7d2f6CfFF6b0110C05F5BDc21A302

if anyone is feeling generous, I got really into this for a few days but now im just sitting on about 100$ worth.

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>>131212812
People living in shitty, dirty carpet, one bedroom apartment, trying to give life financial advice on /pol.

Give me a break.

>>131214336
OP is a fag

>>131214290
orlly, didn't know that, been thinking about buying in a few grand just to see if it spikes the same way bitcoin did. I can afford to lose the money / leave it there for years.

>>131214164
Maybe, but you can stash it on a bitcoin drive and im sure there will be some country somewhere that will still allow them, even if other countries / banks start clamping down.

I put £10,000 in bitcoin a few months back, when it dropped to £700.00, its up to £2000 now.

>>131212326
Same here. I will see if this cunt has an idea and I'll follow it and see what happens.

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>>131214164
if this happens I'm going to be making bank selling some fiat for thousands of bitcoins

the cat is out of the bag, there is no way this isn't mooning again and again

finish your damn thread op

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Hey OP, reporting in from /biz/

You're a complete fucking idiot. Don't set stop losses on crypto and why the fuck would you margin trade ether is the moral of the flash crash. Holy shit lmao

>>131214545
Fair enough, but have you ever actually tried to get any money out?

op is remedial

>>>/biz/

>>131204858
could you elaborate more here? what bumps are you referring to? how do they show that algo's are manipulating? i have some experience with candlesticks so you can get technical. could you show us a candlestick chart?

i dont mean to take up your time, I really appreciate the info. I am currenly holding UVXY because I am stuck in it essentially with no good exit. Yes I know about contango losses, I'm an idiot.

>>131205379
This. OP is a degenerate neet-anime-monopoly-money nigger cock sucking jew and needs to be gassed with Ethereum.

>>131212326
Straight up me too, let's do this OP

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>>131215266
biz is all crypto all the time. We're trying to have an actually discussion here
>hey dawg I heard you like moons so I put a moon in your coin so it can moon while it moons

>>131215075
No not yet, everything is with coinbase at the moment, it seems fairly simple to transfer it from euros to bitcoins and vice versa.

Have you had problems?

Oh fuck why is /biz/ here?

What are they shilling today?

>>131215565
No, just a curious nocoiner.

>>131214585
I'm pretty good with my money too, invested right my summer internship savings into my IRA before the big crash in 07/08... about the time again to lose money! (I've actually rebounded quite well, reinvested gains, at about 8% overall but AF fees are killing me.)

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>>131209194
Can someone explain to me why I, a very well paid blue collar guy, should even care about investing? I don't see any point to it other than simple greed, when I can simply save it all.

>>131215917
If you've got your money in an IRA, you're doing it wrong. There is literally a 0% chance that won't be raided by the government when it defaults.

>>131216404
so you can retire at 40

>>131216404
Do you plan on working until you keel over from old age?

Is that you, Ghost?

>>131216404

I don't know about the US but...

1) Pensions - pensions are an incredibly efficient tax evasion vehicle. In the UK you can pay up to £40,000 a year into a pension which is not taxed, e.g. if you earn £100,000 a year you can pay £40,000 into a pension, and only get taxed on £60,000.

2) Saving it in a standard savers account will earn almost no interest, especially compared to inflation. Proper investments will return 5-15% depending on the risk level you take. Interest compounds so you make even more.

Its a handy way to create wealth without being taxed out of the asshole.

>>131203946
>thread on investing
>ctrl f "crypto" and "currency"
>4th post

faggot larper

>>131216404
Inflation will destroy your savings boi

>>131216645
I make over 100k and put away the vast majority into savings. I don't see any point honestly. I've already maxed out my 401k. Please convince me why I should invest in anything other than gold, guns, ammo, and medical supplies?

>>131216550
What do you need invested to withdraw 50k annually in perpetuity? I currently have zero dollars.

>>131210018
ok....really sounding like a LARP now

>>131216953
If this were true you'd probably not be asking such a basic question. Making 100k and investing say 60k of it annually would have you on a retirement track in like a decade or less.

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>>131216953
Naw dude, you're doing great. You're investing where you should be as far as I'm concerned.

>>131201574
>$500 in options can land you roughly $100k

Stopped reading here.

>options

Just go down the racetrack instead, lad.

>>131216474
The government could seize my property at any time as well... and employers can cut pensions... nothing is safe.. we are already trading on second hand info, those in power don't lose and make rules to keep it that way, that's why politicians make so much in the stock market

>>131216474
All true. But it is much harder to confiscate real property than to manipulate a few 1s and 0s.

>>131216953
Why not silver instead of gold?

>>131217440
agreed

>>131216897
Do you not get taxed on redemptions? The way I see it playing out long term (15-20 years) is that they'll just ream you on taxes when you start drawing out currency that's been massively devalued. A series of cascading sovereign debt crises is a brewin', and it'll be spectacular when the shit hits the fan.

>>131216404

The 'time value of money'.

Let's say you have ten dollars and you put it on a shelf and leave it for 25 years. After 25 years, that ten dollars is still worth ten dollars - it hasn't 'done' anything.

Let's say you put it in a bank instead - in a savings account. After 25 years you might have made a dollar in interest so now you have 11 dollars instead of ten - you've made a profit.

That's the basic idea but (smart) investment, ideally, yields far greater returns than a dollar.

>>131217711

Yes if I ever actually try to get hold of the money, it will be subject to income tax same as any other earnings.

Might be able to dodge it with some foreign bank accounts though.

>>131217798
Sounds like gambling to me. I'm a Christian so that's not an option.

>>131217220
This everyone.

>>131217798
the problem is ten dollars 25 years ago fed your family for Dinner, now it doesn't cover dinner for mom

>>131217959
There's literally nothing in the Bible about gambling. There's tons of references to making smart investments that return interest, though.

How do I into trading guys? ;_;

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>>131212812
wot happen?

>>131216953
Well I would also expand to candles, basic non-powered tools, alcohol (vodka and whiskey mostly), but yeah, you shouldn't invest in anything non-real at this point.

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>>131218279
>The biggest jewing of all time

>>131205516
Everyone on pol screencaps and/pr archives what's your deal faggot?

>>131218437

Put whatever you can afford into an index tracker every month and forget about it for 30 years.

Seriously. That's it.

If you get a bonus or you come into some unexpected money or you’re some as a birthday present or whatever, then you can start buying your own hand-picked shares as little gifts to yourself but put the idea out of your head about being an "active" day-to-day investor. You make money by dumping it into an investment account and forgetting about it for decades.

>>131218406
Interest = usury = jewish = hellfire

>>131219254
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+25%3A14-30&version=MSG

If Jesus said to do it, it's good.

>>131218942
CFD trading is not hard for someone willing to do the work, strategy and judgement and enough of a stake to be able to hold off margin calls

OP.. If you had $500 to buy a Put option, what would you buy? Give us a recommendation

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>>131219623
Lending money at any interest is usury. The servants did not give their money away, sat on their rears and reaped in interests a year later like the perfidious jews would do. They used their money to invest in themselves to generate more income.

>>131221392
OP is dead, senpai.

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>>131219623
"But love your enemies, do good, and lend, hoping for nothing in return; and your reward will be great, and you will be sons of the Most High. For He is kind to the unthankful and evil." (Luke 6:30-35).
"Do not lay up for yourselves treasures on earth..." (Matthew 6:19)
Debt is slavery...
"The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender." (Proverbs 22:7)
"You were bought at a price; do not become slaves of men." (1 Corinthians 7:23)
"The crime of usury, before the Reformation, consisted in the taking of any interest for the use of money; and now in taking an higher rate of interest than is authorised by law." (Principles of the law of Scotland [1754]).
"Thou shalt not lend upon usury to thy brother; usury of money, usury of victuals, usury of any thing that is lent upon usury: "(Deuteronomy 23:19).

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>>131212822

>>131200600
great bread t b h

if op wanted his larp to be slightly believable he shouldn't have gone full retard at the end. it does a disservice to the people who wanted to believe him and reinforces disbelief. my only conclusion is, regardless of whether op is correct or not about the market, he is definitely autistic.

>>131216692
The larping continues

>>131212812
Are you seriously gonna leave without a closure?

>>131222934
this

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Potash. Thank me later.

>>131218706
top kek

>>131212812
Why do cunts on here always fall for this larping shit?

the same reason we put Trump in the White House. We yearn for adventure

>>131200600

Do you think we should ban any American central bank from buying commercial bonds? Then they couldn't force interest rates lower.

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>>131210809
>>131212812
>when your meds stop working half-way into a thread

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>>131213805
>>131213960
Check out Numeraire. It's a decentralized hedge fund. First of its kind, with hedge fund backers and former heads at Google in the dev department.

Shot up to $122 in just 2 days after launch. I bought in at $80 earlier today, so great profit thus far.