Nationalists and Populists Poised to Dominate European Balloting

Five Star is the leading opposition to the government’s plan to cut the number of seats in Parliament’s upper chamber and limit its powers, a move Mr Renzi is seeking to speed action on economic reforms. With the prime minister threatening to resign in the event of a “no” vote, growth-enhancing measures such as a corporate tax cut and help for Italy’s fragile banking system could be off the table. “You might end up having a political crisis on top of an economic slowdown and a banking mess,” says Bloomberg Intelligence economist Maxime Sbaihi. “Suddenly, stars could align for the worst.”

Recent polls show the “no” forces narrowly ahead. If they prevail, an interim government would take over until elections could be held, probably in 2017, says Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of Teneo Intelligence, a political advisory firm in London. “The big winner would be the Five Star Movement,” which could increase its 14 percent share of parliamentary seats, he says. Five Star probably wouldn’t gain sufficient backing to form a government but would have enough seats to deny any other party a solid majority.

That scenario underscores what may be the biggest risk of the nationalist groundswell: increasingly fragmented parliaments that will be unable or unwilling to tackle the problems hobbling their economies. True, populist leaders might not have enough clout to enact controversial measures such as the Dutch Freedom Party’s call to close mosques and deport Muslims. And while the Brexit vote in June helped energize Eurosceptics, it’s unlikely that any major European country will soon quit the EU, Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a recent report. But they added that “the protest parties promise to turn back the clock” on free-market reforms while leaving “sclerotic” labour and market regulations in place.

France’s National Front, for example, wants to temporarily renationalise banks and increase tariffs while embracing cumbersome labour rules widely blamed for chronic double-digit unemployment. Such policies could damp already weak euro zone growth, forecast by the International Monetary Fund to drop from 2 percent in 2015 to 1.5 percent in 2017. “Politics introduces a downside skew to growth,” the economists said.

Here’s a Rundown on the Upcoming Elections:

Italy
Dec. 4 referendum

Prime Minister Renzi wants to curb the power of Parliament’s upper house and has said he’ll resign if there’s a “no” vote. That could plunge the country into crisis, likely leading to an interim government followed by national elections in 2017.

The “no” side is slightly ahead, but at least a quarter of voters remain undecided. Mr Renzi’s base is divided on the referendum, prompting him to offer concessions to appease party members who’ve opposed his plan.

Netherlands
March 2017 general elections

Voters will choose members of the national Parliament, where the Liberal Party holds the most seats and heads a coalition with the Labour Party.

Recent polls show Geert Wilders’s anti-immigrant, Eurosceptic Freedom Party running neck and neck with the Liberals. But even if the Freedom Party gets the most seats, it’s unlikely to find a coalition partner. Improving economic numbers could benefit mainstream parties, and Liberal Prime Minister Mark Rutte may shore up his support by boosting spending on health care and security.

France
April-May presidential elections

Voters will choose a president through a pair of primaries, followed by a first round of voting in April and a runoff in May. Bordeaux Mayor Alain Juppé, a pro-European, business-friendly former prime minister, is the front-runner in a November primary of center-right candidates. The Left has its own primary in January; François Hollande, the deeply unpopular Socialist president, hasn’t said whether he’ll seek reelection. A wild card is Emmanuel Macron, a former economy minister under Mr Hollande who’s created his own political movement but hasn’t said whether he’ll run.

The first round of presidential voting will pit the primary winners against Marine Le Pen, head of the far-right National Front, and candidates from smaller parties. Polls show Ms Le Pen would win as much as 30 percent of the vote in April, enough to advance to a second round. But surveys show she’d lose a runoff to any mainstream candidate. In parliamentary elections in June, the party that wins the presidency is likely to gain enough seats to form a government. Despite Ms Le Pen’s popularity, the National Front holds no seats in the 577-member National Assembly and failed to gain control of any regional governments in elections last year.

Germany
September parliamentary elections

Chancellor Merkel faces stiff criticism within her coalition over her handling of the refugee crisis and hasn’t said whether she’ll seek reelection after 11 years in office. With her party convention set for December, she’s expected to signal her intentions soon. Low unemployment, rising wages, and slow-but-steady growth, along with broad support from the business community, would favor a fourth-term bid. Mrs Merkel’s government plans a €6.3 billion ($6.9 billion) income tax cut starting next year.

Following its recent state and local successes, the populist AfD could win seats in Parliament for the first time. But other parties would likely band together to deny AfD any power in government. And Mrs Merkel has a 54 percent approval rating—more than most of her European peers—while her CDU-CSU bloc still leads comfortably in opinion polls.

>>80083
Hmm. It will be interesting to see what effects the US election result in early November will have on those european elections in December. Good post OP.

Fug me

We just had an election here in canada 1 year ago, now the states, next europe.

Three bloody years of the polls this and the polls that, racist this racist that.

My little cant handle much more of this. At least Europe is way of the radar for most people so its not normal conversation.

>>80246
>want limited immigration
>don't want far right social and economic policies
I'm in a bit of conundrum.

>>80252
Why is there no inbetween? I want bits and peices of the left and right

>>80260
Good question.

>>80083
this is good.

for 500 years Europeans colonized other countries and disrespected their native cultures. Now globalization is coming home to roost, and the Europeans find their native culture are the ones being colonized.

They are perfectly within their rights to reverse this situation. Just as much as any third world county had in fighting European Imperialists in the 20th century.

>>80092
doubt it, US is so slow to change politically. we're getting to be like China or Russia.

>>80260
this

>>80280
>understanding this little of things
You're embarrassing yourself.

>>80285
no need to be mean
also first time 4chan post in the 8 years I've been sleuthing around on here ^.^

>>80085
>Prime Minister Renzi wants to curb the power of Parliament’s upper house and has said he’ll resign if there’s a “no” vote

he never said that

>>80280

Agreed. It is their just due, but that doesn't mean in any way that they don't have a right to say no. Europeans should fight for their heritage just as native Americans should fight for what little they have left.

>>80260
Technically there should be, this is where compromise comes in. Neither side wants to do that (even though virtually every candidate talks about working across the aisle, which nobody does in reality).

>>80290
>no need to be mean
Yeah, okay, I'll give you that. However, that still changes nothing of the fact that what was written in that post is completely wrong because it lacks any real identification of the powers behind what's happening here and now, and in doing so, creates a false narrative. There is no logic there. Europeans didn't create globalization, everybody in all times everywhere take advantage of everybody else, and they have no "rights" to do anything (when Europeans went elsewhere, they went under their own power--migrants from Africa are not doing that, they are powerless to do so, and they are instead brought here by other means and other people) and so on.

Hence, "not understanding anything." Cultural marxism/political correctness can't be used logically, you know.

>>80083
Also, it's funny how they're linking Five Star with far-right groups in other countries, ha.