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Anonymous
Is the Lindy effect causing dementia? 2016-11-22 18:36:07 Post No. 8752545
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Is the Lindy effect causing dementia? 2016-11-22 18:36:07 Post No. 8752545
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Really makes you think what he meant by this huh?
I agree with Taleb that the social sciences are not robust, but he really went too far this time. Surely some cognitive biases will be debunked or turn out to be the same, but I doubt that the whole ting is bullshit.
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>>8752545
welcome, reddit friend
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>>8752583
>welcome, reddit friend
Damn that took you guys long to figure out I came from reddit.
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>>8752635
>I'm not certain you're interpreting him correctly there.
How do you interpret it?
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>>8752650
Some cognitive biases are flash in the pan affairs (psycholobullshit I guess is in part a reference to YOLO), whereas others have a lot of cache by virtue of being old and thus last longer/are more relevant. This aspect of the Lindy Effect is itself a cognitive bias, so he's taking the piss a bit.
He's responding to
>Is there a name for the cognitive bias that makes us think any probability that is not exactly 0.5 should be treated as either 0.0 or 1.0?
btw, and that is also a bit of a micky taker, since ofc a bias affects a probability.
Also feel I need to further point out that #bantzmastertaleb is polarizing in response to to 0 or 1 thing: they're either old as civilization or only going to last a day,
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I just spent the last three minutes trying to figure out what the hell you are talking about and reading the wiki the effect
What part am I missing?
>>8752692
Yeah but that's people behavior to me, how we perceive things, not reality. .5 is still .5 to an engineer. What is he applying it to?
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