Korean War II: What's Trump up to?

>>34834210
Trumps rhetoric serves the same purpose as the "Madman" rhetoric of Nixon.
He wants to appear irrational, because otherwise threats do not appear credible. It's an often-romanticized policy that captured the imagination of a lot of non-politicians at the time. I mean, what if Trump were to say "Yadda Yadda red line Yadda Dialogue something something sanctions" instead. Predictable, and game-able.

>>34834297
Yeah but he fired missiles at Syria at an airbase where the Russians had to run away as the missiles were in flight to not start an international crisis

Maybe he is a bit mad???

>>34834314
Maybe he needed to establish his willingness to use force to pass a shit test early in his presidency.
And even if a few Russians had died, it would have been a significant incident, but not a crisis. There was no pathway for escalation in that scenario.

>>34834210

How worried are you honestly though? Kim *might* worst case scenario take out one random city, probably in South Korea or Guam, possibly Hawaii, then get rocked by every military force on the planet.

>>34834210
>Korean War II
Technically, the first one isn't even over, and the name is already taken.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_DMZ_Conflict_%281966%E2%80%931969%29

Y'all niggas need to read up on Operation Paul Bunyan.

>>34834210
North Korea is trolling the absolute fuck out of Trump and him being a bitch, can only respond by talking shit. I'm surprised they haven't called him a small handed poor person, but he might actually start a war over that.

>>34835086
You know you could actually criticize his actions and the consequences of a massive war breaking out rather than this reddit blumpf pussyhat shit

>>34835128
I have in the countless other threads. Besides, I'm not wrong.

>>34835128
Except he would be a fucking joke if he weren't also a traitor who sucks Putin off while handing over secrets

>>34835537
nice b8

>>34835588
It's true though...

>>34835537
Ahahahha you have to go back mate

>>34834297
Deterrance depends on credible threats. The things he is saying are not credible and they do not convey strength.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zI_3DkCh3hs

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>>34835873
Sure, bud.

>>34835917
>The things he is saying are not credible and they do not convey strength.
he just threatened severe punishment if north korea continues, how does that not convey strength?

>>34835917
Careful, we don't want to imply that the President could ever be wrong, or perhaps incompetent.

>>34836026
oh fuck off, trump may be a lot of things but he is not incompetent. even assuming as such, or assuming that other people believe as such, is a very big mistake.

either he bumbled his way into the world's most powerful office, or he may actually be credible. one or the other.

>>34835004
I was trying to remember what that was called, thanks anon

>>34835999
He said that if North Korea threatened the US they would face fire and fury.
A few hours later, the DPRK stated that they were thinking about shooting some missiles at Guam.
Nothing happened.

Part of a credible threat is that it is clear. 'You do x, we will do y'.

This isnt based in political differences. He really is making serious errors.

>>34836066
why not a little bit of both

>>34836086
Nothing happened? Wait anon, it will. When? Soon. What? You'll see.

>>34836117
There is no deterrent value in that.

>>34836086
>He said that if North Korea threatened the US they would face fire and fury.
>A few hours later, the DPRK stated that they were thinking about shooting some missiles at Guam.
>Nothing happened.
i concede that point. however, can north korea disregard that threat when they're actually deciding to launch the missile?

you explain all the time that nuclear war will probably begin through miscalculations. is this not one of those times? maybe the north koreans thought trump was bluffing, and decided to announce a launch. maybe they discovered that trump wasn't 100% serious. maybe now they want to backpedal, but can't due to internal factors, and now they have to launch. maybe trump is about to start a war.

besides, trump did say later that something will happen, and he has stated that he doesn't want to telegraph what choices he's going to make. maybe he's going the nixon route?

>>34836102
i'll accept that, i'm just tired of people thinking that either he's the biggest idiot on the planet because patriarchy/capitalism, or that he's infallible because MAGA kek look at my kekistani flag kek kek kek.

>>34836066
Word salad threats implying a possible pre-emptive strike if lil kimmy threatens us again (something the norks do on a semiannual basis) followed by more word salad doesn't imply competence.

Don't misunderstand me - I'm not comfy with NK having nukes or an ICBM capability, but empty threats and weak-wristed bullshit aren't going to keep kimmy from doing what he wants.

>>34836141
>he has stated that he doesn't want to telegraph what choices he's going to make
Thats not how you deter.
The other guy has to have a very clear idea of what you will do in response to their actions. If you let him fill in the blanks, you might not like what he fills them with.
Concealing your intentions is a good thing if you are planning on fighting a war, a very bad thing if you are trying to deter one.

>>34836235
>Concealing your intentions is a good thing if you are planning on fighting a war, a very bad thing if you are trying to deter one.
how are you sure that he doesn't want a war?

>>34836235
What if he wants a war?

In any case, Im going to bed. Its been a long day, and tomorrow is looking worse.

Night, /k/

>>34834210
>What's Trump up to?

Trying to start a war because Drumpf knows everyone hates him in the US.

He wouldn't even have won the election if Putin hadn't gotten his buddies to help.

>>34836263
>>34836267
He may very well want one.
I think he is smarter than that, however.

>>34834210
>korean war 2
>more fucking WW3 shilling

go

to

bed

CNN

>>34835917
I think the United States military, the largest one with the most abundant stockpile of nukes, the support of South Korea, Japan, and all of NATO, along with the administration's efforts which blocked Chinese banks from doing business in Best Korea constitutes strength.

>>34836291
Trump, Drumpf, whatever. What do you think about Nork micronization efforts, or of their deployment options? Do you think any of their subs could be used to chuck a nuke at someone? or at nearby naval assets? What about China's missile fleet? If Lil Kim looses his mind, what do they actually have to shoot with?

>>34836235
You can't win this one using logic or the game theory behind deterrence. Personality cult won't hear that...

>>34835128
>>34836066

Everything he does is in the name of being in charge and winning. When he doesn't get his way he throws a fit (look at what he said when repeated healthcare reform failed, and other things like his refusal to accept criticism or ignore various sources for polls/news, whatever). He's 6'2" of fragile ego

He's basically a bossy man-child who can't stand not winning or having his orders followed. He lacks any sense of formality and shoots his mouth of without restraint. Some people love him for that, the same ones who liked his idea of "draining the swamp" just to appoint a bunch of CEOs to positions that are literally the opposite of the ideal person for that position

He was the slightly less retarded of two terrible choices, and has backpedaled on nearly everything he campaigned for, and like anybody who's a part of a major corporation, says whatever he feels is advantageous at that time, but has no actual beliefs or morals, he just wants to make himself look good or get himself something

Not the guy I want in charge of our nukes. I want NK to get their shit slapped, but this last few weeks is not the way to do it. Him continually tweeting and making statements to the press about how bad NK will be fucked if they do anything, while basically daring them to do anything, is childish as fuck. He should have made one strong statement at the beginning and then been silent, and if NK crossed the line strike without warning

>>34836555
>When he doesn't get his way he throws a fit (look at what he said when repeated healthcare reform failed, and other things like his refusal to accept criticism or ignore various sources for polls/news, whatever). He's 6'2" of fragile ego
>He's basically a bossy man-child who can't stand not winning or having his orders followed.
this shit is exactly what i was talking about. no, he is not a completely incompetent fragile buffoon. that model can not explain anything he has done in his life. like it or not, becoming a billionaire takes effort, quick thinking, and extraordinary guts. most people can do a lot more than they think they can, but not many actually try. even few are capable of putting the effort in. even fewer are smart enough to do it. that goes for all great feats.

>says whatever he feels is advantageous at that time, but has no actual beliefs or morals, he just wants to make himself look good or get himself something
what, and every president we've ever had is the opposite? this is standard in politics.

>He should have made one strong statement at the beginning and then been silent, and if NK crossed the line strike without warning
do you not remember him calling out bush for outright stating that he was preparing for a war? do you not remember him calling out the media for being complicit in that? do you not remember him calling out the media for publishing leaks simply for the sake of leaks?

>>34834210
There's a valid merit to using retaliatory nuclear strikes if they nuke first.

If we don't nuke:

>US threats are seen as weak, promises are weak (see Obama's "red-line" for more)
>Concept of nuclear deterrence is weakened
>US' nuclear umbrella is seen as weak, so allies may elect to seek protection elsewhere/develop their own WMD programs since we don't take their security "seriously"

So even if it isn't tactically prudent or necessary to go drop some mushroom pizzas on the Norks, we may have to do it for political reasons.

>>34836555
Checked trips.

Really, it's like watching two internet trolls get into a trolling arms race. DPRK is just testing the waters of the Trump administration, and he's getting red in the face and feeding the troll, while posturing like a troll with phrases like "locked and loaded".

I'm just waiting for some edgy anime comment from Kim like "heh, I see you've been training too... But while you just bought it from your schools I had to learn it all on my own..." followed by Trump tweeting "heh, nothing personal, kid".

>>34836555
>Not the guy I want in charge of our nukes.

Hillary warned all of you.

Fucking white people. Their racist asses are the reason an idiot like Dump is in office.

>>34834314
We informed the Russians before the strike happened.

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>>34834210

Pretty obvious what's going to happen: a gulf of tonkin style "incident" that justified airstrikes. NK's comments on Guam are golden for him, because if a DPRK patrol boat gets too close to a US fishing boat we open fire and the details of the initial incident are forgotten.

>>34835917

A typical Bush/Obama response of "pls don't do this maybe okay?" followed up by those USN boots being taken (temporary) hostage by Iran last year doesn't convey strength. It conveys passivity, which buys Kim enough time to build an SLBM that will actually make the Pentagon scared. Trump's idiocy (and it is idiocy) conveys that he is willing to murder every single nork if their military so much as accidentally bumps into one of our boats. Which, ideally, means Kim will back off or at least be open to diplomatic pressure from Beijing (who is taking a lot of pressure from us, especially as the NAFTA renegoitations begin and Mexico is looking to ban all chink auto parts in America).

Trump's strategy either results in China dealing with Kim on their terms, or us simply ending him. It works, even if it is stupid. And on the topic of stupid, Bush's justification for bombing Saddam was even stupider since he didn't have nukes.

>>34834297
There was some foreign policy decisions in the 2001 era that suggested irrational US foreign policy could serve as a deterrent, since enemies wouldn't know what to expect.

>>34836344
Game Theory only applies if we can assume both parties are rational senpai.

>>34834210
the US wouldn't waste any hidden technology on the norks

>>34835086
Watching Kim and Trump is like being on 4chan. Seriously.

>>34836066
He's just not a political player, he's a business man. Don't conflate business and politics, the two are separated by a very wide margin that has lots of ethical consequences if a wrong political move is made.

Look at the situation in Asia, China and India are locked in a critical standstill regarding Dokam, just one geopolitical detail, the Gipmochi mountain, stands in between Chinese influence in Indian trade routes and the whole of northeast India.

Trump has no experience in terms of strategy regarding geopolitics, realpolitic, or political diplomacy in general, he's not a complete dullard (he is a multi millionaire) but he isn't a skilled politician or tactician. The only reason he got into office is because of the perfect storm created from the current zeitgeist and cultural "progression". He was the symbol of a movement, not a competent candidate. He's a fucking neocon for god's sake, how can you even still worship the kike puppet?

>>34838274
>The only reason he got into office is because of the perfect storm created from the current zeitgeist and cultural "progression". He was the symbol of a movement, not a competent candidate.

He wasn't a symbol or anything.

He got elected thanks to Putin's help, and the US is full of enough dumb voters that believed crap from Wikileaks.

Hillary was literally the most qualified person for President in fucking decades and she lost entirely due to foreign interference, as well as general ignorance amongst the general populace.

>>34836608
>extraordinary guts

You just love eating his shit don't you? Do you even know how he made his money? He took over 100 million dollars in loans that his FATHER helped him secure and flipped hotels for profit. The next 30 years was one big marketing scam; generate contrived and artificial value for your brand and it suddenly becomes worth more. He's like a fucking shoe salesman, "Buy Trump steak, buy trump water, stay in trump hotels!" nothing "risky" or "gutsy", just intelligent business sense and understanding basic marketing and psychology.

You seriously drank the fucking koolaid you spineless rat.

>>34838302
Yes, let's continue the retarded degeneracy of progressivism and and further entrench ourselves in the neocon agenda. Fund the radical islamists! They have oil! Continue to meddle in the middleeast, they're (((unstable)))! Forget all western values traditions and lets all castrate ourselves!

fuck (you), saged

>>34838307
>turning some loans and a bit of familiarity with a bunch of influential people into 3+ billion dollars is just a bit of business sense and psychology
you can give 1 million dollars to your average investment banker and achieve a solid return. you can do the same with 10 million dollars. you can do something similar with 100 million, but at that point you need to start finding places to park your money.

when you have a billion dollars, it is VERY hard to find groups that will accept any significant fraction of your money and guarantee it's safety. you start to have problems at 100 million, but at a billion it's all on you. to become a billionaire through sheer effort, and then to stay a billionaire for many decades, is an incredibly rare feat.

it doesn't matter what you think about this, either. most self-made wealthy people (as in the sons of plumbers who end up becoming multimillionaires) don't have children that grow their wealth. most of their children end up losing some or all of the money that they inherit. most children of billionaires do not retain the wealth that they are given through inheritance.

even if trump was randomly given 3 billion dollars at 18 for no reason, for him to keep that money until 70 displays his business prowess. he is literally in the top 0.1% of all businessmen.

>>34838327
>progress is degeneracy

Why don't you head back to your alt-right safe space?

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>>34836086
>This isn't based in political differences. He really is making serious errors.
>>34836269
>Its been a long day, and tomorrow is looking worse.

When someone like Opp is spooked i'm deeply frightened at how this will end.

I mean, we all meme that a SHTF scenario would be "cool" or "fun" but this could actually be it, and it would be the worse thing to happen to mankind in all it's history.

>>34835086
>I'm surprised they haven't called him a small handed
I've never seen any actual indication Trump is bothered by that weird insult. I think the meme is likely founded in delusion.

>>34838335
>it is VERY hard to find groups that will accept any significant fraction of your money and guarantee it's safety.
are the people *still* supporting trump this retarded? Your net worth doesn't even fucking matter, you can invest however small an amount of money in a project as you want. Having billions of dollars to your name doesn't mean you can't invest in a 10 million dollar real estate venture. Holy shit what logic are you using?

>most children of billionaires do not retain the wealth that they are given through inheritance.
thank you for stating a well known fact. obviously children of business men aren't inclined to generate more profit for their business because the aren't inclined to do anymore business. It has nothing to do with trump's "skill", it has to do with the fact that he had the inclination to continue doing his father's work, investing in real estate and marketing his brand to dullards like you.

>he is literally in the top 0.1% of all businessmen
Sure by worth, but not by ability. Businessmen with a fraction of trumps wealth are more successful than him in regards to how hard they worked, the intelligence and skill needed to become as wealthy as they are, and how much they've put into making money.

>>>/pol/

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>>34834210
Fucking nothing's going to happen. This shit will pass like it does every other time. We have had more tense situations with them and they all just fiz out because no one has the balls to follow through with anything.

Spoilers:
>Nuclear war won't happen.
>Oppenheimer won't learn much of anything

>>34838393
>Having billions of dollars to your name doesn't mean you can't invest in a 10 million dollar real estate venture. Holy shit what logic are you using?
>be bad at picking ventures
>you've just lost 10 million dollars
>and another 10 million dollars
>and another
>and another...
>economic crisis, there goes 20% of your wealth
>there goes another 10 million dollars.

>obviously children of business men aren't inclined to generate more profit for their business because the aren't inclined to do anymore business.
it's not even that. most children are simply not as good as their parents. if anything, not engaging in business at all is a better thing for your net worth than actually doing deals, if you're the child of a businessperson.

>Sure by worth, but not by ability.
so you're a communist/socialist? if he's wealther than 99.9% of the population, how is he not more able than the majority of people? what, was it just luck that he made it 50+ years without losing his fortune?

>Businessmen with a fraction of trumps wealth are more successful than him in regards to how hard they worked, the intelligence and skill needed to become as wealthy as they are, and how much they've put into making money.
so the guy with 500 million dollars is more successful than the guy with 3 billion dollars, because you believe that trump is a fraud for no succinctly stated reason?

>>34838428
>Being this big a cuckitalist.

Might as well just let'em fuck your wife while your at it.

>>34838463
am i a cuck for fit people if i admit that olympic athletes are basically gods in the body department?

>>34835917
Yes, in fact I agree, and I don't think the Nixon approach is working.
I do think it's what Trump is going for though, because he was a non-politician at the time and is obviously influenced a lot by popular thought. Popular thought has slightly romanticized the madman style without thoroughly examining it.

>>34838468
Yes.

>>34838551
so you're salty that there are ideals, and that some people fit them?

you do realize that this basically makes you a communist, right?

>>34838428
>so you're a communist/socialist?

you really are a fucking retard. I'd love to keep proving you wrong but keep sucking his dick, just remember how asinine you look to rational people and liberals.This whole discussion is regarding his skill yes? My point was that he may be very rich but there are more skilled people that exist.

>trump is a fraud for no succinctly stated reason

>succinctly
(its EXPLICIT retard)

I never said this you mentally deficient ape of a human being, so I'll put in stupid terms you can understand. Trump's daddy *raised* his son to be a business man, he gave him lots of money and then he made more money by doing business type things!

In conclusion, (you and this argument are retarded and not worth a continued existence) trump turned A LOT of money into more money through business sense and MARKETING HIS BRAND, not POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC INTELLIGENCE AND SKILL.

>>34838373
Not spooked. Busy. Rapidly changing.

>>34839012
Busy? Rapidly changing?

As someone who for the most part is out of the loop and not highly educated on this topic these words don't inspire confidence.

>>34834210
Nigga, norks were talking about nuking Guam. Of course the US would retaliate in kind

>>34839019
The odds of the US comming under direct attack with nuclear weapons is very very small.
The worry is that the crisis spins out of control regionally.

To be sure, there are some very smart people who believe we are in the opening phases of an acute crisis and progressive escalation cycles.
I am not so sure. Trumps words are confusing and lack clairity. That complicates things but the risk to the US is not much different than it was last week.

>>34839070
I'm on university exchange in South Korea at the moment and am just worried that the war will go hot here. I can't help but feel a tension in the air here.

>>34839070
Do you think NK has miniaturised a warhead as has been reported?

*If* NK were to launch a nuclear attack either against SK or Japan do you think it would be a one off or would it open pandora's nuclear box?

>>34839070
morning.

>I am not so sure. Trumps words are confusing and lack clairity. That complicates things but the risk to the US is not much different than it was last week.
do you think that guam, or trump's reactions to guam, might escalate it? do you think that north korea is actually going to conduct the missile "test" in guam? what do you make of the ICBMs being moved around at the same time as the IRBMs?

>>34839070
Have you considered reading one of the books Trump has 'written' or maybe looking into his past publicity to try and get into his head? Hell, maybe just shoot an email to maddog Mattis with your credentials and see if he can help you out.

>>34839070
As an after thought I would often employ a certain strategy in chess against opponents that I found to be very orthodox and formulaic. I would slowly build up traps by making bad moves to force my opponent out of their comfort zone, which in the long run wore them down because they would have to recalculate every move to see if I am trying something sneaky or not. It works very well against some people, but those that play more on the fly will pick this tactic apart like it was a Sunday afternoon buffet.

>>34839070
Hey Opp, I know this isn't necessarily the designated "nuke" thread but I was wondering if you had any recommended reading on india's nuclear capability.

They always just seemed like the odd one out and aside from threatening Pakistan I was wondering if they have any other plans for their nukes

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>It sounds like Trump's recent statements are channeling Truman's hint-threats before the A-bomb was dropped on Hiroshima. Like he's hinting at thermonuclear weapons being used in anger for the first time OR some kind of hidden technology.

The man's got the attention span of a gnat, a questionable connection to reality, an outright pathological aversion to ever checking with anyone before saying something.

The man has no plan, idea or strategy for Korea other than telling the military to go do something about it. Via twitter. And he won't just leave it to them to figure out how, he won't even get around to telling them or anyone else either what exactly he wants them to do. Leaving us, yet again, with various White House factions telling the press their interpretation of the president's will, while the military as tries to come up with a diplomatic way of saying "We're not taking orders to go to war via twitter you twat, do it properly or get fucked." that's still clear enough that even Trump will get the point. Unfortunately for them, he wouldn't take the hint even if they just said that straight out.

>>34839295
>And he won't just leave it to them to figure out how, he won't even get around to telling them or anyone else either what exactly he wants them to do.

>>34836275
This could have gotten you a few replies 6 months ago, find some better bate mate

>>34835004
>Operation Paul Bunyan
>Several of the special forces men also had M18 Claymore mines strapped to their chests with the firing mechanism in their hands, and were shouting at the North Koreans to cross the bridge

kek, koreans are awesome

>>34836555
I feel like you've read a few articles you shouldn't have read

>>34839596
>also removed were two road barriers installed by the North Koreans, while the South Korean troops also vandalised two North Korean guard posts.

double kek. bet that was a hell of a fun day

>bracing for black triangle rods from god

>>34838302

go back to /r/politics and fucking stay there you fucking sack of shit

t. /leftypol/

>>34839082
>I can't help but feel a tension in the air here.
I can imagine.

>>34839096
>Do you think NK has miniaturised a warhead as has been reported?
Most likely.

>*If* NK were to launch a nuclear attack either against SK or Japan do you think it would be a one off or would it open pandora's nuclear box?
I do not subscribe to the theory 'if one goes, they all go."

>>34839114
>do you think that guam, or trump's reactions to guam, might escalate it?
Without a doubt.

>do you think that north korea is actually going to conduct the missile "test" in guam?
If the past week is the indicator of the US new policy direction, I think it is more probable than not that they will attempt a test towards Guam.
If the President dials back his remarks, I would suspect they would not.

>what do you make of the ICBMs being moved around at the same time as the IRBMs?
Demonstration of capability/intent.

>>34839219
>Have you considered reading one of the books Trump has 'written' or maybe looking into his past publicity to try and get into his head?
No. Because it doesn't matter what is in his head. The only things that matter are the statements he makes and their application to the crisis.

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>>34834210
Why is it always the rest of the world that has to dial back when it comes to north korea? why does north korea never suffer any actual punishment for all the shit they do year in and year out?

what's the fucking point of the NPT if countries can gain nuclear weapons when they want with little to no consequences by other nuclear and non nuclear powers? Don't give me "muh sanctions", they always end up being lifted almost immediately afterwards when gov'ts feel that nobody is paying attention anymore.

>>34839818
>Without a doubt.
where do you think that we might go from here, if that happens?

>If the past week is the indicator of the US new policy direction, I think it is more probable than not that they will attempt a test towards Guam.
do you think that the US will attempt to shoot it down? do you think that they will conduct a similar "test" off the coast of north korea?

>If the President dials back his remarks, I would suspect they would not.
i doubt that will happen. even if he wants to, at this point he can't without being crucified by both the left and the right. the left for being a pussy because, well, you know drumpf nuclear codes, and the right for not living up to his campaign promises to turn literally all of mexico into a wall.

>Demonstration of capability/intent.
so they're signalling that they're ready to use the ICBMs if this escalates? you would probably know something about where the ICBMs are transported, do you think that this is just an ill-timed training move, or do you think that this is a direct threat?

>>34839268
>>34838373
Didn't the real OPpenheimer stop posting with his trip? And he capitalized the second P, who the fuck is this guy? Pretty sure this isn't a real trip, why are we giving him any credence?

>>34839900
I stopped capitalizing the second P some time ago.
I still occasionally post with the trip, if there is a reason to. If you look at the archive, the tripcode is the same.

>>34835086
but the koreans are only talking shit too. for every missile they fire, the US and SK do joint drills of their own. kimmy jo is too much of a little bitch to actually fire at guam.

>>34836714
Bait or just retarded

>>34838557
Yeah and it ain't bad.

>>34839653
You're not left if you deny facts, fuck off.