Japan and nuclear weapons

Separating out the plutonium just to have it lying in storage collecting dust just in case they ever build a MOX reactor wouldn't be anything uncommon here. BU tat the same time, Abe's in charge, and it wouldn't surprise me in any way whatsoever if he wanted Japan to have nuclear ICBMs. Probably a bit too sensitive politically, so me guess would be that no, this isn't anything. Time will tell though.

>>34724213
Everybody talks about Israel and (apartheid) South Africa when they talk about secret nuclear powers, but the one that I've always been shocked that folks haven't caught on to is Japan.

I honestly believe, just by looking at their Mu series (I through V) that they've probably had an offensive nuclear capability since at least the 1980s. My money would be on a limited number of MX-sized delivery vehicles carrying a dozen or so MIRVs apiece, hidden in the mountains under blow-out/dig-out shelters, as deterrent against China, Russia, and North Korea.

It also is 100% consistent with Japan's historic AND modern military doctrine, which advocates just about anything that might better defend the homeland. A "JNSDF" would completely fit in line with that, even if political realities meant that such a system and force became a national secret of the absolute highest order.

If they have them, $100 says that France helped them build their system, and that the bus/RV designs for their missiles are probably MBDA derivatives.

What you stumbled on, OP, is possibly the beginnings of Japan taking their program into the gray world, though it'll probably be decades before they disclose any older systems or weapons that they might have.

>>34724249
Japan's been fueling their reactors with MOX for decades. Just align their MOX purchase history with the development timeline of their solid-fueled rocket program and that should give you a ballpark estimate of about when their nuclear deterrent program came online. Like I said in my earlier post, I'd bet it was the 1980s, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the French nuclear tests in the South Pacific during the 70's and 80's had as much to do with refining a MOX-based warhead design for the Japanese as they did with France's SLBM program.

Also, remember who actually builds and sells those extremely precise multi-axis CNC mills that are crucial for physics package fabrication and shaping and are considered to be a huge part of nuclear proliferation concerns...

>>34724497
>Secret nuclear weapons
>Deterrent
How? If they want nukes, they withdraw from the NPT and build them. No one will do shit. Why hide them?

>>34724497
>>34724533

That WOULD explain why China loves to saber rattle with South Korea and Taiwan but has largely chosen to ignore the country that conquered, raped, and enslaved it barely barely a few generations ago...

I would be fucking erect if the PLA ever tried to start shit with Japan only to watch in horror as Beijing, Shanghai, and every major city and military installation gets glassed by grorious nippon meervus with such short notice that Beijing doesn't even have time to launch the retaliatory strike.

>>34724213
I'm not the only one reading 'Debt of Honor' by Tom Clancy then.

>>34724611
The same reason why Israel keeps its nukes a secret, never mind the fact that Japan chose to neuter their military at gunpoint and must save face as a nation that honors the promises and agreements that it makes with others and to its people.

All they really need to do, anywais, is trickle some hints of their capabilities to the chinks and the norks via their spy networks, and like the Arab world v Israel, the higher ups will know not to poke the bear while not wanting to admit to their own people that the reason why they don't mess with their #1 most hated enemy is because they'd get their shit pushed in so hard that they'd be lucky to come out in the stone age when it was all said and done.

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>>34724611
>If they want nukes, they withdraw from the NPT and build them. No one will do shit.

That's not how the world works Anon.

>>34724533
Another interesting point is that France is one of the few countries able to simulate nuclear weapon testing through the Laser Megajoule and several supercomputers. I'm not saying that France provide access to Japan, but who knows.

>>34724670
Yeah but the Israeli nuclear "secret" is known to everyone on the planet. If Japan is hiding something, they are doing a damned good job of keeping it from the IAEA.

>>34724611
I imagine Japan feels safe enough under America's protection for the time being. They can still have a deterrent while building their own and skip all the opposition generated by a public weapons program.

>living in Nagoya
I wish I had something relevant to add from living in Japan, but I don't really. I've spoken to a handful of Japanese about nukes, but only when it comes up in the course of an existing conversation. Their opinions range from utter disgust of having nuclear weapons (go figure) to "Meh, North Korea is building them so I'm not against us having them either."

>>34724705
>That's not how the world works Anon.
Why not? There are provisions to withdraw from the treaty. My understanding is that since the Japanese nuclear program preceded the treaty, and they would not be using technology acquired as a result of signing the treaty to build a nuclear weapon, they would not be in violation of anything.

>>34724705
>Supercomputers

Sokath, his eyes uncovered!

Now, you start to see it all come together. Remember about 15 years ago when Oak Ridge was all excited about their new supercomputer that could simulate nuclear tests, only to get buttfucked by Japan in the FLOPs department when pic related went online a month or two later.

>earth simulation
It's OK Kenji, you can keep saying that if it helps you save face

>>34724735
>skip all the opposition generated by a public weapons program.
And deal with the opposition to violating an international treaty? If they want nukes, they can get them. I don't see the need for deception.

>>34724777
>I don't see the need for deception

It's Japan. That's how they've pursued military matters ever since the Meji era.

>>34724735
>They can still have a deterrent while building their own and skip all the opposition generated by a public weapons program.

This. The American nukes are a fantastic distraction from any domestic nuclear programs, drawing any/all anti-nuclear ire from either the Japanese people or foreign states away from all the blatantly nuke-related shit (like the solid-fueled rockets that all just happen to be the exact same size as MX's) so they can develop their program under the cover of secrecy and not even have to worry about the parts of it that slip into the white world arousing any suspicion because why would they even need nukes when they have a carrier based at Yokosuka?

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>>34724666
OH FUCK SATAN STOP, I DON'T WANT WAR WITH JAPAN!

I'm betting they're just relying on nuclear latency to keep anyone from pushing them too hard over the long term

America knows that if they leave East Asia, Japan will have operational nuclear weapons inside of a year.

Why bother actually building them when just having the ability to do so influences people's behavior just as much as a secret nuclear stockpile will.

>>34724801
This guy gets it. They've always built their most advanced superweapons under complete secrecy. Remember that the US didn't really know that the Musashi and the Yamato even existed until Yamato was spotted acting as the flagship at Midway.

The ICBM's are just Japan's Yamato class battleships for the post-battleship era. Built in complete secrecy, to be revealed to the public only if and when they are needed.

>>34724834
On the flipside, why not actually build them, when everyone already knows that you're only a few months away from having them anyways?

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>>34724774
Forgot to add the picture. 90's/early 2000's Japanese industrial design was truly GOAT.

>>34724862
Because the odds of somebody screwing up and creating a second Cuban Missile Crisis exceed the odds of somebody blitzing China before the nukes are operational and the US not responding.

>>34724862
Because it creates a lot of political heat, international and domestic, that could trivially be avoided (and which risks pressure to dismantle the program).

>>34724854
Nah. This dude >>34724834 is right. Why build them now, illegally, when you could just do it at any point in the future?

>>34724885
>>34724886
>>34724889

What are the odds that Japan already has the delivery system built and in place, along with the RV's and every non-nuclear component, and keeps the physics packages disassembled, with the fissile material stored in a separate room, so that technically, they do not, at this moment have any nuclear weapons, however should diplomacy go south, you can bet that there is a pit crew of nips stationed in each silo, training day-in, day-out so that should the signal be given, all that could change in under an hour.

>>34724944
I'm betting they're planning on using their existing fighter-bombers as the delivery system.

Just make a simple implosion type device and put that shit in an F-35B and you're in pretty good shape.

>>34724213
>>34724497
Bullshit, they don't have them now but everyone knows they have to tech to whip them together posthaste. The actual steps towards making nukes would draw way too much attention

>>34724944
>international burea of alcohol, tobacco, firearms, explosives, and nukes shows up

>That there's some constructive possession

>Assemble one of their nukes and use it on stray-cat-island because there's no stray-dog-island

>claims they were in fear for their life

In a nutshell

>>34724967
>just make a simple implosion type device and strap it on a f-35b
>implosion type device
>simple
>fitting on an f-35b
lol

>>34724834
>Japan will have operational nuclear weapons inside of a year
>Why bother actually building them when just having the ability to do so influences people's behavior just as much as a secret nuclear stockpile will.

If they need them they might not have a year's time to make them.

>>34724889
>Why build them now, illegally, when you could just do it at any point in the future?

The Japanese people have had an intense distaste for nuclear energy since Fukushima. Any public program, even fast-tracked would face immense domestic opposition. On /k/ we know of course that nuclear weapons and nuclear energy aren't subject to the same risks, but the average Japanese Joe either doesn't know that or doesn't care. They are shutting down power plants left and right here and either trying to cut energy use or find other sources of electricity to compensate. Prefectural governments are having a hell of a time convincing their people to keep nuclear plants open.

Additionally, Abe is losing some of the support he's enjoyed in recent years as he's had a few recent scandals. His party has a safe, for now, hold on the legislature. A public nuclear weapons program would plummet their support and so shatter the ruling party's hold on the government. As a side note, Japan's defense minister resigned five days ago over a scandal as well.

>>34724991
I'm sure the ATF could find an island or two of Akitas and Shiba Inus to vaporize in the name of self-preservation.

>>34725000
Simple compared to a fusion bomb anyway.

And the Nips just built their first F-35A, I'm guessing they'd be able to miniaturize a warhead enough to fit it in the internal bays.

Could be wrong.

>>34725012
>If they need them they might not have a year's time to make them.
THIS.

>>34725012
>If they need them they might not have a year's time to make them

See, my thinking is that for Japan to be totally without nuclear cover, it would require America to disappear from the world stage.

For America to disappear from the world stage, there would probably be some kind of buildup, during which time the Japanese could start shitting out warheads, and whatever mess America was getting into would probably distract hostile governments from taking advantage of Japan.

>>34724889
The thing about nuclear weapons is that the time you need them is usually less than 30 minutes after the time you know you need them. Not great if they're disassembled.

>>34724666
God tier book anon

>>34725068
Japan would need them because why would you ever entrust the wellbeing of your homeland to the one nation ever to use nuclear weapons in anger. On you.

Deep down, they still likely have a bunch of fear and distrust for the USA, and wouldn't ever want to put all of glorious Nippon's eggs in one basket, especially one that they don't really trust. Would it really be beyond the pale for the US to say fuck off quick and say "nope, you're on your own, kid" to Japan if China started getting belligerent in its quest to build a pacific colonial empire of its own and threatened nuclear force against the lower 48.

So in that situation, it makes perfect sense for the Japanese to have a plan B, one that they know is 100% reliable.

>>34725051
Exactly.

>>34724213

If Japan had nukes it wouldn't be surprising and I'd doubt if the Americans didn't know.

Then again North Korea has stuck a huge middle finger to the west and built their own 'home grown' nuke deterrence without getting stopped by anyone. If Japan went down the same path I doubt the West would have the balls to curb stomp them either.

>>34725163
>Would it really be beyond the pale for the US to say fuck off quick and say "nope, you're on your own, kid" to Japan if China started getting belligerent

Yes it would.

For the US to back down like that and leave a long-time ally would herald an imminent decline of American influence across the globe. Japan is too vital to policy and strategy to leave over threats being made. Every country with something to prove would be emboldened to tell big bad USA to fuck off and the State Department would be dealing with multiple clusterfucks on every continent. In a generation the US would start to be internationally marginalized. As strong as our military is, we can't be fighting several police actions the world over. We'd be stretched too thin politically and militarily.

It would take an unbelievably weak administration to even contemplate leaving Japan to fend for itself over China, whose military hasn't even been tested in decades.

>>34725242
>would herald an imminent decline of American influence across the globe.

Where have you being these last 5 years?

>Obama's 'red lines' over Syria
>North Korea told the West to fuck off and suck it
>Then Set up a credible nuclear deterrence
>Trump is too busy doing Trump stuff
>The world laughs

Seriously, the West doesn't have the balls anymore for intervention.

>>34725278
I can't disagree with that, but ditching Japan is several orders of magnitude higher than any of those things. Anyway, the jury is still out on what we might do about North Korea. I just hope things stay chill for the next two weeks, I'll be spending a few days in Seoul.

>>34724249

Japan doesn't really need ICBMs. They already hold international influence by monopolies.

They just need nuclear arms to prevent China from being a dick. It's a sure fire method to prevent China from doing what they want and I'm pretty sure they could replicate a Tomahawk and the nuke warheads they have.

I'm not sure what Japan has in terms of VLS.

>>34724749
It's complicated. And political. There's nothing in the treaty itself about punishing anyone for breaking it. Leaving is probably ok to, haven't checked. And I'd say anyone wanting to leave would have a pretty solid argument for doing that in that the treaty says the nations with nukes are supposed to give up this capacity at some unspecified point in time. As it is, none of them appear to have any interest in living up to this.

But there's also nothing in it stopping everyone else from sanctioning your ass to hell and back if you start working towards nukes. Cutting off Japan would cost a lot of people a lot of money, but Japan itself would most definitely be hit the hardest there. Fuck knows how willing this and that government would be to do it. The US for example may happily accept Japanese nukes if presented with them as a thing that exist, just because they want to tag along the unsinkable superdupercarrier IJN Nihon if China get uppity.

If anything though, we should keep in mind that nukes aren't exactly cutting edge any more. It's more than seventy years since Trinity. A tiny black and white TV was bleeding edge consumer electronics at the time. With Japan having an extensive nuclear industry, and it seems from this thread a decent plutonium stockpile, it's entirely possible that they would choose not to have anything resembling a nuclear weapon program all that closely, because they could probably go from starting one to evaporating Pyongyang in under six months. As such they can simply not risk the political mess of being caught building nukes until they see a nuke-worthy shitstorm on the horizon.

Or until Abe has declared himself Tojo II.

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>The industrial scale facility is slated to separate 8 tons of plutonium maximum annually

Seperated as in from a reactor's spent fuel.

cooking plutonium is like cooking scallops.

Weapon's Grade Plutonium is when you fry it a few mins a side with plenty butter leaving it delicious and tender(and implosion detonation ready) while commercial Reactor Grade plutonium is cooking it an oven at high heat for 4 hours leaving it tasteless and rubbery(and only able to frizzle not detonate).

Weapon's Grade or Supergrade Pu is made by neutron bombarding metallic Uranium 238 for a very short time before ejecting it from the reactor. Reactor-Grade is extracted from spent fuel elements that have sat in the reactor for the entire time it took to deplete the fissile U-239

the special "Frying Pan" you need to cook the perfect Supergrade Plutonium has to be

>Graphite moderated(i.e made out of a giant block of graphite)
>have an easily accessible loading face so you can remove the Plutonium as soon as it's cooked without shutting down the reactor
>complete dedication to Plutonium production

>>34724834
>>34724854
>>34724944

There's no reason for Japan to actually develop nuclear warheads, only to have the capability of doing so. This means having bomb fuel, complicated electronic components, and a delivery system ready to be assembled into the final package.

Why not build now? Because nuclear weapons cost a lot to design, test, and most importantly maintain. Even if we assume tojo wants to rebuild their military dollar-for-dollar they get far more mileage out of frigates and "research ships" which actually stand a chance of seeing some action against Chinese boats. Even if they want to go on an offensive, they benefit more from spending the cash on submarines and frogmen commandos not nuclear weapons.

Seriously, consider the conflicts Japan faces itself with: China fucking with their sea lanes and China fucking with their fishmen. Neither scenario demands nuclear weaponry.

>>34725386
Abe is not doing well domestically. He's been part of a few scandals and has supported some VERY unpopular legislation recently. When I moved here I expected most Japanese to be either supportive or apathetic to him, but at least half that I talk to are openly critical. For the mild spoken Japanese, that's really something.

>>34725320

Two weeks? Yeah... You should be okay. Have you seen the greater weather forecast for this year though?

If the maps are to be believed it's going to rain B61's heavily over the North. The powers at be are figuring out what the global stage will do. That's whats holding them back, the testicles might have shriveled but they are still there and they are attached to a mad man.

Then again they are just maps. Enjoy Seoul, it's a lovely place.

>>34725324
>Japan doesn't really need ICBMs.

Probably, but that's not gonna stop Abe from wanting them for the prestige. The thing to remember about Japan at the moment is that their prime minister is actively pushing the idea that they didn't really loose WW2, not all that badly at least, it just kinda well *cough* and "Tenno Banzai!" should definitely become the national motto again.

On the plus side, support for many of his more "peculiar" ideas seems minimal in the population at large, he mostly got elected because when nobody else could say anything about what to do about the economy, he at least could serve up some grade A bullshit.

>>34725278
Syria and Ukraine we're (failed) attempts to hack away at russias/irans sphere of influence, not keeping the US one intact. Giving up an incredibly important long term ally is in no way comparable.

>>34725278
Willful giving up Japan is not the same as Ukraine or Syria. Japan is unbelievably more important than Kiev or Damascus There was nothing to lose their and only something to gain. Those two have failed.

>>34724988

This. My understanding is that Japan doesn't have the ability to make them right now (or even have any), but do have the right tech and parts to do so if they fear they need them. Presumably, they'd begin manufacturing work before SHTF.

>>34724497
It would be impossible for them to hide it, the US, the USSR, and China would have had a fit.
Sorry. No way they have had an offensive nuclear capability since the 1980s.

>>34724944
>What are the odds that Japan already has the delivery system built and in place, along with the RV's and every non-nuclear component, and keeps the physics packages disassembled, with the fissile material stored in a separate room, so that technically, they do not, at this moment have any nuclear weapons, however should diplomacy go south, you can bet that there is a pit crew of nips stationed in each silo, training day-in, day-out so that should the signal be given, all that could change in under an hour.

0.0%

>>34724991
>there's no stray dog island

Sublime kek

>>34725917
So what do you reckon invasion window is? Don't want to reenlist and get blueballs

>>34724944

RV's are made from fissile material in order to save weight. Also turns out they have all the characteristics you'd want for high-speed atmospheric entry.

>>34726123
if it doesn't happen until 2018 rolls around it's never gonna happen

>>34725917
How high to you rate the potential danger of the norks making a KSA/Pakistan type deal with another pariah state/organization?

>>34725917
What can we point to about say, Israel, that gives away their nuclear program, that Japan lacks?
How would we know?

revenge for hiroshima and nagasaki.

>>34726272
The U.S knew about their nuclear program, they just did nothing to stop them/ gave them a bunch of cash for free

>>34726123
>So what do you reckon invasion window is?
I have no idea now.

>>34726243
Very low.

>>34726272
Intelligence reports.

>>34726304
The US did not condone it at all. It was the French that gave Israel what they needed.

>>34724633
Um... sorry to burst your bubble but the PLAAF constantly starts shit near the senkaku islands

Why would they nuke the US?
Econimic Tirschenreuth are strong.
But with the US Pulli back on international military Protektionismus, they are more likely to build a counterweight to the North Korean nuklearen threat on their own.

>>34726328
>didnt condone
>gave billions in 'economic aid' to a rogue nuclear power and continues to do so
>just passed a law making it illegal to refuse Israeli business

>>34726377
They aren't technically a rogue nuclear power as they are not breaking any convention.

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>>34726328
Is anyone really surprised at the latest test? It's bad but from the drumming up of it I'm assuming this is the government telling everyone to play along and get hype for a foreign war.

>>34726417
>Is anyone really surprised at the latest test?
Yes.

>>34726403
neither is north korea

>>34726432
What's so surprising about it?

>>34726465
They signed the NPT. Israel did not.

>>34726520
The norks signed the NPT? Didn't knew that.

>>34726555
Yes.

>>34726499
Range.

>>34726590

Range is something, granted, but NK still have to develop a good reentry pod (or retroed' from the ones who sold them the missile design), a nuke miniaturized enough to get in, and a good target computer, because adding wastelands in Alaska is not their objective.

Still, they're on their way for a land-based nuke capability. They'll then probably settle for a sea based component, if left unchecked, and then they'll be what they want: the smugiest racketters ever.

>>34726642
their engines seem to still be based on the R27 engines they somehow got their hands on. It's unlikely that the soviets or chinks provided a whole missile including RVs, control hardware and other peripheral stuff, but that's just my uneducated guess so who knows.

>>34726663

>t's unlikely that the soviets or chinks provided a whole missile including RVs, control hardware and other peripheral stuff, but that's just my uneducated guess so who knows.

Two other countries seems to have ties with NK in the nuclear field: Pakistan and Iran. Though I agree, the missile's provider "forgot" to add the electronics, probably because they know NK's endgame is to sell the technology when it will be fully developped, and US will retro the damn thing to identify and punish those dumb enough to help them.

Still, NK is fully capable to develop a decent missile, a planified economy is able to do such, as the soviets already proved it. It's slower for them, pecause the powerbase is way smaller, but imho they can attain it, in a crude fashion. But hey, who cares if the nuke miss it's target by a mile or two?

>>34726731
Developing a missile and using a missile are two different things. North Korea knows that using their missiles would be suicide.

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>>34724213

The Pu that Japan has stockpiled over the years is reactor grade Pu and is being used as fuel for their reactors. Out of the 5 that have been restarted since Fukushima, 2 run on a partial MOX fuel load.
It's useless for building nukes, no one has ever built one from the Pu that is present in the spent fuel of a light water reactor.
Also Japan has signed the NPT and unless it wants to be excluded from all nuclear-related trade, i doubt it will ever try to start a clandestine weapons program.

>>34726980

I know. But to be a credible threat, you need to prove in one way or another that your missile can hit shit. That's why they regularly drop some in Japan's sea. The further the better, and I think a good demonstration would be to trash a missile near California's shores. No need to actually hit the US, lest South Korea will become an island in the time needed to say "retaliation".

>>34727116
>Implying we'd do shit

>>34726328
>Intelligence reports

Oh wow what a great non-answer.

>>34728036
It not a non answer.
Intelligence reports on the construction of Dimona, intelligence analysis on its production capabilities, intelligence from France, EURATOM, et al.

All of these things come together to form an overall picture of their capabilities.

To suggest that Japan was able to manufacture an offensive nuclear capability under the noses of Western and Soviet/Russian intelligence strains credulity.

As an example, the manufacture of silos is not something that can be hidden. The production of fissile material, as a scientific process, can be estimated relatively easy.

>>34726328
>I have no idea now
What has made it so much harder to estimate than before?

Also can you weigh in on the likelihood of actual military action against NJ or are we just going to see more toothless sanctions?

>>34724213
what about worst Korea getting nuclear?
http://reason.com/blog/2017/07/31/south-korea-considers-acquiring-nuclear

>>34724497
This bad boy shows they have re-entry tech down pat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayabusa

>>34724611
Japan is a turnscrew power, they don't need nukes now because they have the Americans backing them up. However, they maintain the industry and components needed so they could probably slap together some sort of meaningful deterrent in less than a month.

All the benefits of being a nuclear power without the soft power blow it would give them

>>34728956
NK*, damn phone.

Fuck Jersey though.

The long standing wisdom on Nukes and Japan is that they have the technical ability and materials necessary to produce a weapon in a matter of a few months, if not sooner. They do not currently have any nuclear weapons and are prohibited by their constitution from possessing them.

However, their defense pact with the U.S. allows for the use of American nukes in defense of Japan.

>>34724611

Japan loves to make a big deal about how they were the only ones that got nuked so far and they fear and respect the power of nuclear weapons and make it their duty to oppose them.

Thus they can't have nukes themselves without looking like massive fucking hypocrites.

And there would be riots because Japanese civilians have spent all their life being told nukes are the devil and they should feel bad that their grandparents suffered from them.

>>34729232
>The long standing wisdom on Nukes and Japan is that they have the technical ability and materials necessary to produce a weapon in a matter of a few months, if not sooner

how though? building the pile needed to breed the fissile material alone would take a year at least

>>34729885

>And there would be riots because Japanese civilians have spent all their life being told nukes are the devil and they should feel bad that their grandparents suffered from them.

that's true i guess

i was to japan ages ago and i recall a talk with some jap where he asked if my country had conscription and when i answered yes (i'm a vatnik) he said that japan didn't have any conscription because it's not aggressive and then switched to nukes, like "we no have nukes" *raising his finger "hiroshima! nagasaki!" (you see, we discussed in a butchered english), it was pretty amusing

>>34725025
If nips can't miniaturize something, no one can

>>34728969
These nips are clever people