Was there any way Japan could've won after Pearl Harbor?

>>34385248
Well we wouldn't have glassed their major cities, so they would definitely be better off

Also, the guy who pulled the lever on the enola gay has the single highest K/D in history

>>34385248

TL/DR: haha, no.

Long version:
You are Japan, which has been at a war in China for over a decade.
On the onther side lies the USA, by far the largest industrial economy in the world.

The battles and victories you get are not decisive enough, your opponent reads your mail and now you are stuck in a war of attrition with a country that has you at at least 10-1 disadvantage. GG no re.

>>34385257
Stalin, Hitler, Genghis Khan.

>>34385568
They didn't kill people themselves more then likely. Just ordered it. This dude actually pulled the trigger on it.

>>34385252
>after Pearl Harbor

>>34385248
No. Even assuming Pearl Harbor goes off without a hitch, they catch the USN's carriers a few miles out to sea and put them on the bottom too, and thoroughly wreck the fueling and repair infrastructure as best they can, America's stateside industry on the West Coast is still fully capable of unleashing hell upon the Imperial Japanese. And the IJN sure as fuck doesn't have the power projection necessary to bring any capitals in range of CONUS either.

Yay, they extended the war by a few years. Instead of Hiroshima and Nagasaki being the only cities exposed to Oppenheimer's Light, the five largest population/industrial centers are now introduced to Sunshine in a Can.

On an interesting note, the Iowas might be converted into carriers to make up for the loss of their pre-existing fleet carriers at Pearl.

>>34385583

The runner up is Vasily Blokhin. That guy killed literally thousands of people up close and personal, with the Katyn Massacre being his biggest session.

>Blokhin initially decided on an ambitious quota of 300 executions per night; and engineered an efficient system in which the prisoners were individually led to a small antechamber—which had been painted red and was known as the "Leninist room"—for a brief and cursory positive identification, before being handcuffed and led into the execution room next door. The room was specially designed with padded walls for soundproofing, a sloping concrete floor with a drain and hose, and a log wall for the prisoners to stand against. Blokhin would stand waiting behind the door in his executioner garb: a leather butcher's apron, leather hat, and shoulder-length leather gloves. Then, without a hearing, the reading of a sentence or any other formalities, each prisoner was brought in and restrained by guards while Blokhin shot him once in the base of the skull with a German Walther Model 2 .25 ACP pistol.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Blokhin

>>34385556
>by far the largest industrial economy in the world.
found the kid that failed history. that didnt happen until AFTER and BECAUSE OF ww2. before that we were an agrarian economy.

>>34385248
If Yamamoto wasn't killed, maybe Japan wouldn't get so fucked, but I doubt anything would change post PH.

>>34385686
It happened during the war you massive retard. The amount of stuff this country was pumping out by the end of the war was staggering.

>>34385248
>>34385655
>>34385556
The Japs could never win but they never really intended to.

At the same time though, if the US had to pull its fleets back to Cali then the Japs might have been able to dig in to their new possessions in the Pacific and SE Asia or get China under control well enough to convince the US to go for a negotiated settlement.

Maybe?

>>34385248
Defeat is inerrarrabru

>>34385675
god i love the russian civil war

>>34385248
>Was there any way Japan could've won
Could you give the definition of "winning" in this context?

Nobody in the IJN as well as half the guy in the IJA would ever thought war against the US could be won. It was the hacks in Kwantung army who was blinded with victories against the chinks and russians and thought they could score against America too.

These people gained upper hand in both the Diet and emperor privy council and now everyone else had to play by their rule.

What they wanted to do is to attack the pearl harbor and then sue for peace. In the event of Axis defeat, they could at least retain places like korea, Taiwan and parts of northern China and Sakhalin peninsula in exchange for peace, a bit of reparation payment as well as giving up SEA. That didn't happen and you know the rest of the story

>>34385655

Tbh the Soviets would have still invaded them anyway so they probably would have surrender around the same time even if they had sunk the carriers.

>>34385686
no, you are the retard - go check the USA's GDP/GNP prior to WW2. They started as the biggest and only got stronger

>>34386045
Except that almost all of soviet military might is in western front (or eastern if youre a nazi), there nothing strategically important on the eastern part of russia and they had to transport battle weary combatants and military equipments across siberia to wage war against Japan.

So no, not gonna happen

The US spat out 24 Essex class carriers during WW2.

The Japanese had, what, thirteen proper carriers total throughout the war?

Japan had a bit of handicap to deal with there.

>>34385248
> Bomb Vladivostok instead of Pearl Harbor
GG

If Japan didn't got to war with the USA. Would Japan had a civil war? Jap nazy and army hated each other pretty badly.

Fuck no lol.

From my brief knowledge, they were way too dogmatic (and autistic) about the equipment they used

Mitsubishi Zeros fast became outclassed and they didn't bother properly upgrading them

Same goes for their bombers

They didn't have a fucking SMG until 1943 atleast and it used a shitty cartridge and fired too slow

Spent too long autistically making their bolt actions nice without realizing inadequacies

etc

>>34386045
Just that the Soviets had no fleet halfway able to compete with the IJN, their best ships were three WW1 era battleships.

>>34385248

absolutely

if any modern day libtard had been president back then USA would have dithered and not done anything and today 1/2 USA would be speaking jap and the other 1/2 speaking kraut

>>34386148
>Damage few outdated WW1 ships which had no effect in the war whatsoever
?

>>34386596
xD
Funny meme

>>34385963
The idea was that the Americans' had capitalist mentalities and would give up on the war if it became too costly.
But, because the Pearl Harbor attack started before a declaration of war there was no way the US would walk away with its tail between its legs.

>>34386179
Or better yet, would we ever have Hentai?

If the Japanese had properly utilized their submarine fleet, which given the knowledge sharing with the Germans should have been doable (jap delegations literally talked with donitz about sub warfare)

In this case the Japanese could potentially delay the end of the war by a bit, while inflicting much higher causalities on the Americans. But I very much doubt that this would be enough to change the war in a substantial way. For that the Japanese would have had to posses a very different doctrine during the interwar period. If they had focuses on subs during the 30s instead of building autistic battleships, then they could have possessed a very capable long range offensive sub fleet. Such a fleet could put a real big hurt on allied shipping headed to Persia (modern Iran) and then north to the USSR. If the Japanese had a substantial sub presence from the get go in the western indian ocean, then allied supplies to the USSR would be lowered, if not outright reduced to a trickle at times. Conceivably this could be enough for the Germans to 'win' in Russia, which would mean a completely different outcome.

I dont see any way the Japanese could have beaten the US in a head on war, even if they did things completely different in the 30s.

>>34385248
Only if the USA was Muslim-tier incompetent at symmetrical warfare and Japan does everything absolutely flawlessly. And even then, its likely the US would still grind them down.

>>34385257
a nkvd executioner had over 60k

The Japanese were hoping to quickly force America to the bargaining table after inflicting a string of embarrassing victories, they could outright win through attrition and they knew it, taking even Hawaii was a pipe dream. But for that to happen America would have had to be the one launching a surprise attack on Japan, failing miserably, and then losing every subsequent battle for a year straight.

>>34385248
The Japanese lacked 3 main ingredients to feed a war machine
>oil
>iron
>manpower

The US had an abundance of all 3 and was geographically isolated from any real attacks.

>>34386776
*they couldn't win

>>34385248

Well, if a series of large meteorites happened to hit all the important industrial towns in the USA right during the beginning of the war, then yeah, maybe. Other than that, no.

>>34386776

>Plan A was defeating through embarassement

How dumb

>>34385686
http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm

It's always hilarious when people are both ridiculously belligerent and dead wrong.

In 1939, the US was at the tail end of the Great Depression while the Japanese economy had been burning so hot it was superheating since about 1936. Even so, the US had:
>Nearly twice the population of Japan.
>Seventeen time's Japan's national income.
>Five times more steel production.
>Seven times more coal production.
>Eighty (80) times the automobile production.

There isn't a single economic or production metric in which 1939 Japan comes into the US' ballpark, much less is larger.

>>34386644
>If the Japanese had properly utilized their submarine fleet, which given the knowledge sharing with the Germans should have been doable (jap delegations literally talked with donitz about sub warfare)
Daily reminder that the scale they would have to operate on in the Pacific to seriously interdict US shipping compared to the Atlantic was well over an order of magnitude larger. Even if they flat used German designs, they'd have to increase range by a metric shit ton, build roughly fourteen times as many "Milk Cow" boats to keep them supplied on patrol, all while building a fleet of SSKs roughly 3 times the size of the KM's at their very height just to produce similar results.

And even then, they would have failed just like the Germans. Unsupported submarine raiding with WWII tech is ultimately unsuccessful in the face of radar-equipped naval patrol aircraft, convoy tactics and escort carriers.

>>34385248
Maybe if they won at Midway?

That would have been a serious 1-2 punch to the US Navy

>>34387828

Japan winning at midway would have been a serious blow to US morale, but it would still only delay the inevitable, in my opinion. In order for Japan to win the war, they would have to consistently win battles overwhelmingly, again and again.

>>34385688
Yamamoto would have watched a nation he admired utterly buttfuck his home, and then he would have committed sudoku.

>>34387828
America would have just backed off for a short while, then come back even angrier with even more shit, with the sole intention of obliterating the nips.

File: If the US had gotten curbstomped at Midway.png (703KB, 1600x900px) Image search: [Google]

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>>34387828
Nope. It only would have extended the war by about six months. Pic related is a 6-month incremental snap shot of ship and naval aircraft deployment/production numbers based on the idea that the US lost everything at Midway.

The US would have still equaled Japanese naval aviation strength by one year later, doubled it by two years later.

Source, with a lot of other well-researched thought on this matter:
http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm

File: Lost Japanese tonnage by US weapons platform.jpg (138KB, 670x528px) Image search: [Google]

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>>34387828
>>34387925
Oh, and this doesn't even take into account the heavy US advantages in submarine operational efficiency and signals intelligence. From a production/personnel resource to strategic military efficiency ratio standpoint, the US submarine force was easily the most effective combat group of any force set in WWII. Pic related.

File: 1480304356816.png (500KB, 642x792px) Image search: [Google]

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>>34386199
Let's not get too far down the rabbit hole as to why you are so hilariously wrong, but essentially it boils down to "equipment doesn't win wars, but it helps". Learn the logistics of the war, and the wars that both sides intended to fight, and eventual American victory becomes all but inevitable no matter what the Japanese do. America intended to fight a war of attrition, and Japan could never have created a force strong enough to force a peace.

I know you've been taught your whole life about "war-winning weapons", but essentially they don't exist. Overall composition of the force, training and doctrine, logistics and resupply, industrial capacity, and grand strategy matter way beyond "THE GUHRAND WAS THE BEST RIFLE".

>>34387399
It worked with Russia during a time of great internal unrest (even though Japan almost ran their own economy into the ground in the course of doing so), so Japan got suicidally overconfident and started to think they could throw their weight around with actual naval powers.

File: B-29_Aerial_mine.jpg (76KB, 584x640px) Image search: [Google]

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>>34387961
You should read the RAND report on Operation Starvation, the B-29 aerial mining campaign in 1945. Long story short, submarines were great, but the B-29 aerial mines caused much greater disruption for the amount of resources, men, and materiel used in the effort.

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/reports/2006/R1322.pdf

>>34387997
This.
>amateurs think of weapons and tactics
>professionals think of logistics

>>34388023
>You should read the RAND report on Operation Starvation, the B-29 aerial mining campaign in 1945. Long story short, submarines were great, but the B-29 aerial mines caused much greater disruption for the amount of resources, men, and materiel used in the effort.
It is true that aerial deployed naval mines were incredibly effective at closing up harbors and shallow trade routes in the ECS and SCS, but it should also be noted that against an opponent nearing technological parity across their force structure (say, Germany), the campaign would have been far, far less successful and would have required far more in terms of resources.

Japan had almost no trained pilots left, nor any aircraft with the flight ceiling to challenge the B-29 by the time it was deployed in numbers. If it did, they would have experienced heavy losses and required significant resources in escort fighters.

Furthermore, the B-29 aerial mine campaign didn't really kick off until March 1945, and thus only entered the picture once Japan's merchant marine was nearly completely destroyed (mostly by US subs) and the Home Islands were already more or less surrounded. The tactical and strategic impact of the US submarine force on the entire conflict was far, far more significant.

>>34388023
ooh, nice find

>>34386444
They had a handful of modern destroyers and modern-ish cruisers.

>>34388089
True, although the Germans proved at least for a bit that aerial magnetic mines were a highly effective weapon, even against a peer force. It would have worked better for them if they had actually deployed it in numbers, but the Luftwaffe was pretty much against the campaign and only begrudgingly went along with it. If they had dropped a large amount of mines quickly, it would have led to a near shutdown of shipping on the mined ports until countermeasures could be affected, but instead it was done piecemeal, and while it caused damage to the British, it was not crippling like Starvation was.

Do not get me wrong, the submarine campaign was effective, it's just that Starvation should be mentioned more often, due to it being highly successful at little cost.

File: Folder_33_APQ23_Training_Page_6.jpg (253KB, 850x1169px) Image search: [Google]

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>>34388092
A few months ago I spent a whole week reading B-29 related stuff. That RAND report and learning how the radar navigation system and the training simulator for that system worked were probably the most interesting.

http://www.whittsflying.com/web/WWII_RADAR_HISTORY/x33_APQ-23_Training/index.htm

Basically, the training system used a supersonically vibrating rod held underwater above a glass sand table to simulate radar. It's just too freaking neat.

>>34388089
>Japan had almost no trained pilots left, nor any aircraft with the flight ceiling to challenge the B-29 by the time it was deployed in numbers. If it did, they would have experienced heavy losses and required significant resources in escort fighters.

Wasnt like 90% of B-29 raids at low-level? Or was that just the fried-rice mission over major cities?

>>34388166
Missions*
fuck

>>34388166
Most of them were. Both the mine and napalm missions were low level.

>>34388162
its a nice find, absolutely. I spent last summer reading Downfall by Richard Frank, can absolutely recommend it if you are interested in everything leading up to and involved in the fall of Japan, including Starvation, Olympic/Coronet and the nukes themself

>>34388166
They were. But due to the lateness of the B-29s appearance in the war and US air superiority over Japan by that point, there really wasn't anything to challenge them. Japan still wasn't using radar directed AA gun platforms with RPC turrets and radar-fuzed warheads on naval or land air defense stations, even at the end of the war.

It's hard to estimate the overall combat efficiency of the B-29 as a platform in WWII, because they really weren't challenged in the same way the earlier heavy and medium bombers were. There's no doubt they were highly effective and overall great platforms, but there's a huge grey area when trying to determine how great against production, training and development costs against all-up effectiveness.

>>34388023
>92 pages

Oh my, here i go reading again

>>34388023
So quick question for whomever might know, why does this report refer to the Air Force?
Shouldn't it be Army Air Corps, since they're distinct entities?

>>34385248
Even if the Japanese didn't make mistakes in doctrine, logistics, attitude, or strategy, they still would have lost. What I described is also impossible. I bet that if you sent a time traveler to them they still would have tried.

>>34389137
The report was published in 1974, mainly as a "Hey guys, don't forget that aerial mining is a thing" exercise.

>>34389155
>weaboo military enthusiast travels back in time to make sure Japan is successful in the war
>Fails horribly. Watches as Japan loses even harder
I'd watch the fuck out of it.

>>34389137

I don't think that they were separate entities until after WW2.

>>34389176
I figured that, but isn't it...not right? Maybe I'm just being extremely pedantic, but isn't it right and proper to refer to something using the period-accurate terminology.

>>34389137
>why does this report refer to the Air Force?
It was written after 1947. They mostly don't like to remember that they were once the Army Air Corps/Force.

>>34389197
Remember how competitive they are about funding and how jealous they are of their own bailiwick. All US branches are like this.

Also, it's simpler and less confusing. It's not a historical secondary source document in intent; it's meant to be a summation of military efficiency and tactical explanation based on primary documentation of the actual campaign.

TLDR: written by people interested in tactical and strategic implications, not historians

>>34389230
Fair enough

>>34385655
The problem with the loss of Pearl Harbors fueling/repair facilities is that no ship could operate in the Pacific theater for longer than 3 months iirc without those facilities. Then you have to remember Japans goal was not "winning" but a peace/ceasefire agreement. Now before anything else, even if Japan does get a successful peace deal then it is guaranteed that once Germany is dealt with the rest of the world would wonder twin powers activate and fuck Japan.

If Japan did follow through with the 3rd wave and hit those facilities it would've forced the US Navy to pull back to west coast (San Diego/Everett) for about a solid 6-8 months until the facilities were back fully operational and ready to truly support the fleet needed to properly counter attack as what "was" the ABDA fleet would've been annihilated without the US Navy ships. Even WITH the US Navy ships it was hard fought battles with serious losses (until Midway). This gives Japan ample time to consolidate the Pacific Fortresses and even directly threaten if not invade parts of Australia (extreme long shot).

Other direct chances they had were really a large series of wasted opportunities Starting with Battle of Savo Island and continuing through the Naval Battles of Guadalcanal. The IJN repeatedly pulled back as they believed the US had carriers or other superior forces just around the bend when they held large scale advantages in ships and armaments to point they could've almost completely wiped out the 1st Marine Division on the beach who were bereft of any of their heavy equipment or majority of their supplies. Even if the Marines were driven inland, this would've allowed reinforcing IJN transports to offload their men and supplies and greatly strengthen the islands defenses. The cumulative effect would've been a massive morale hit to the US's initial entry into the war.

>>34385248
Probably by properly supplying their troops rather than the whole foraging doctrine might have helped.

Can't die for the emperor on a diet of mouldy rice desu

>>34385248

TL;DR no

Even DURING Pearl Harbor, Japan couldnt even hope to logistically supply one or more fleets for extended combat operations around the US West Coast, they didnt have the supply fleets, the forward operating bases, or the manpower. There really isnt that many island chains/resupply areas that exist in the eastern pacific. Hawaii is one of the closest islands to the US and even after Pearl Harbor it was FIRMLY in US control. The fleet that made the raid was geared for exactly that, and no more. It was a FAR cry from the logistics that would have been involved with an invasion fleet that would be needed to take a full-on USN base, even if it wasnt in wartime footing. That was at their ABSOLUTE height. They made a big play to try and shock America into suing for peace, as history shows that didnt pay out.

I dont know who was jewing who during the brainstorming sessions leading up to that, but Japan picking a straight up fight with the US was about the worst call they could have made. Hell, our only real offensive actions after Pearl Harbor until 44' were Midway (which crippled the JSNs fleet capability) and Guadalcanal (which didnt do a lot strategically, but gave us a good picture of what we were up against in the coming fight. We took our SWEET ASS TIME revving up for the war in the Pacific, while also fighting a war in Europe, and the japs STILL got monkey-stomped on a strategic level.

>>34389264
>The problem with the loss of Pearl Harbors fueling/repair facilities is that no ship could operate in the Pacific theater for longer than 3 months iirc without those facilities.
Without actually invading the island (completely impossible), those facilities would be completely repaired within a year, and partially functional within 6 months. Not to mention the duplicate facilities that get built elsewhere. It buys them a little time, but not nearly enough to matter.

>This gives Japan ample time to consolidate the Pacific Fortresses and even directly threaten if not invade parts of Australia (extreme long shot).
No, it doesn't. Their logistical train was already tauter than a drum. This stress, coupled with the dysfunction between the IJA and IJN would have made successful expansion half that far in 6-12 months impossible. They already desperately needed to halt expansion and consolidate.

Furthermore, even if the USN withdraws to the West coast for 6-8 months (they wouldn't, as Hawaii was well outside the IJN's sea/air superiority reach and would remain so for some time), that only means all the ships they're popping out (plus any jury-rigged repairable hulls from Pearl) are completely out of the IJN's reach. At that point, even seeking a Decisive Battle, Japan looses. The USN wouldn't commit until they had an advantage, and had the production to achieve that advantage within 18-24 months.

>>34385686
Fucking eurofags always making shit up to protect their egos. The US has been the world's largest economy since 1914 and had a massive industrial base since the Reconstruction

>>34389862
>I dont know who was jewing who during the brainstorming sessions leading up to that, but Japan picking a straight up fight with the US was about the worst call they could have made.
The Japs were very asshurt about the US after their 1904-05 Russo-Japanese War. During the war, they easily had approval and support of American politicians and public. After Tsushima, the Japs were looking for a hard close to the war after clubbing the shit out of the Ruskies. However, the Russian diplomat was a pretty savvy dude and did some campaigning during the treaty talks, which swayed American public and political support closer to a neutral, if not favourable to the Russians. The Japs felt cheated because Roosevelt pressured them into signing for less than what they demanded (retaining the entirety of Sakhalin Islands, additional territories in Manchuria, and in particular, reparations to pay off their massive debts/loans, as well as provided economic security for all the dead soldiers' families). After the war, Americans realized Japs were going to be a regional power if let alone, so they purposefully played against them throughout the years to ensure their own power was not perturbed. The Japs hitting Pearl Harbour was a way to get back, and by destroying their carriers, would have taken the Americans out of the Theatre (temporarily), allowing them to focus completely on Straya, India, Siam and whatever other shitholes of SE-Asia.

Also, related to the Pacific Theatre, a neat documentary:
https://youtu.be/bvLT8U0-_lI?t=10

>>34387726
Fish?

>>34387726
that wasnt what was posted, but its probably normal for you to miss the point due to poor reading comprehension.

>>34390837
>that wasnt what was posted, but its probably normal for you to miss the point due to poor reading comprehension.
The initial statement was false regardless. I addressed it pertained to the issue at hand: relative production capacity between the US and Japan. You would know, if you read the source, that the US was also the world's biggest economy by a large margin at that point. In fact, as an anon above noted, the US has been the world's largest economy in GDP/GNP terms since 1914 or 1916 depending on a slight difference in measuring estimates. Yes, even in the depths of the great depression.

>>34386179
Not the whole IJA, just the Kwantung army.

Plenty of local (as in "trained in Japan and not sent to manchuria") and western trained officers who were dissatisfied with how Kwantung-army officers gets all the recognition and good units while they were sent to some remote units on the frontiers