How would Operation Downfall play out? If Japan wasn't nuked?

>>33683487
The US Sixth Army, the formation tasked with carrying out the major land fighting on Kyushu, estimated a figure of 394,859 casualties serious enough to be permanently removed from unit roll calls during the first 120 days on Kyushu, barely enough to avoid outstripping the planned replacement stream.
Secretary of War Henry L. Stimson stated "We shall, in my opinion, have to go through an even more bitter finish fight than in Germany. We shall incur the losses incident to such a war and we shall leave the Japanese islands even more thoroughly destroyed than was the case with Germany." From D-Day to V-E day, the Western Allies alone suffered some 766,294 casualties

In the spring of 1945, the Army Service Forces under Lt. Gen. Brehon B. Somervell was working under a figure of "approximately" 720,000 for the projected replacements needed for "dead and evacuated wounded" through December 31, 1946. These figures are for Army and Army Air force personnel only and do not include replacements needed for the Navy and Marine Corps.

A study done for Secretary of War Henry Stimson's staff by William Shockley estimated that conquering Japan would cost 1.7–4 million American casualties, including 400,000–800,000 fatalities, and five to ten million Japanese fatalities. The key assumption was large-scale participation by civilians in the defense of Japan.

Outside the government, well-informed civilians were also making guesses. Kyle Palmer, the war correspondent for the Los Angeles Times, said half a million to a million Americans would die by the end of the war. Herbert Hoover, in memorandums submitted to Truman and Stimson, also estimated 500,000 to 1,000,000 fatalities, and those were believed to be conservative estimates; but it is not known if Hoover discussed these specific figures in his meetings with Truman. The chief of the Army Operations division thought them "entirely too high" under "our present plan of campaign."

It would depend a lot on Hirohito as well. Would he call for a surrender once he realized the US forces had invaded. Or would he call opon the Japanese to resist like Hitler did with the Germans.

>>33683518
>It would depend a lot on Hirohito as well.
Wasn't he a puppet leader? I thought he had no say besides being presented with maps and stuff

>>33683487
>>33683493
Henry Stimson's staff by William Shockley is tbe only correct answer.

Japs were determined to make americans bleed for their transgression against them.

>>33683518
I assume Hirohito cared about his people unlike hitler

>>33683625
>Japs were determined to make americans bleed for their transgression against them.
The fuck we do to them before Pearl harbor?

>>33684042
Oil embargo that crippled their industry

>>33684058
>Oil embargo that crippled their industry
Since when was Trade Embargo (I assume we stop Trading other Material along with the Oil) an Act of war?

>>33683487
What? 100,000 men. That's if we used US Marines. If we used the Army maybe 150,000.

>>33684177
The Army was well equipped, unlike the marines anon.

>>33684073
They were a world superpower slashed the only source of material without which, a modern nation cannot function.

Aggression was literally their only option since all around them were only colonial shitholes that couldn't produce material for shit.

An imperial nation attacked by another imperial nation over imperialistic behavior. The Great War, WW1 and many other world-changing conflicts errupted in the same scenario.

Imagine the entire world denouncing and stopping all trade with the US once they intervened in Korea, or Vitenam, or Iraq, or...
While impossible in reality because of the mutual dependence, had it happened, US would have no choice but to bumfuck Canada and/or Mexico over their natural resources keeping the US running.
The Japanese had the shitty luck of not being co-dependent with the US. Hence the war.

>>33684224
They were equipped just fine compared to their jap counterparts.

>>33684257
Or they could, you know, stop waging genocidal war on china and act like a peaceful civilized nation.

>>33684287
>Genocidal war.
Do you have proofs of this claim? The Chinese are known to lie what happen in the war

>>33684334
Bait

>>33684259
The nambu pistol 9x22mm was stronger than the marine's pistol. They were not well equip

>>33684346
I'm simply asking for source

>>33684446
A library is a great place to start.

>>33684377
Because wars are won by pistols...

No.

>>33684073
The oil and material embargo forced Japan to start a war they many knew they couldn't win. Without the supply of US materials Japan physically could not sustain its empire and is part of the reason they rushed into the Dutch East Indies. Japan went balls deep and bombed Pearl Harbor hoping that they would sink enough ships in one go to make the US ask for peace. However once the war started the US military economy was literally pumping out warships every day. By the end the US GDP was 50% of the world.

>>33684469
Why didn't they stop. You know. The war with china?

>>33683487
>>33683493
>>33683518
>>33683567
>>33683625
>>33683790
Japan had already sued for peace. The reason the Americans didn't accept it was because the Japs insisted on the condition that the emperor be left alone. Ironically and tragically, the Americans ended up allowing that even after the unconditional surrender.
>>33684073
When America threatened to enforce the embargo with a military blockade a few months after imposing the embargo. America was literally the aggressor in that war.

>>33684526
Jesus Christ. Japan shouldn't have been nuked.

>>33683567
>wasn't he a puppet leader

That was the official narrative back in the 1950s, which was concocted by MacArthur because he felt that keeping the Emperor around might be useful from the standpoint of maintaining control.

The reality is that while Hirohito was not the one who planned everything, he absolutely had the final say on all major decisions and colluded with/directed all of the people who were later found guilty of major war crimes. Look up the failed coup of 2-26-1936 if you want an example of how much power the Emperor actually had.

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>>33684589
Fleet Admiral Chester W. Nimitz, Commander in Chief of the Pacific Fleet stated in a public address given at the Washington Monument on October 5, 1945:


The Japanese had, in fact, already sued for peace before the atomic age was announced to the world with the destruction of Hiroshima and before the Russian entry into the war. (See p. 329, Chapter 26) . . . [Nimitz also stated: "The atomic bomb played no decisive part, from a purely military standpoint, in the defeat of Japan. . . ."]
In a private 1946 letter to Walter Michels of the Association of Philadelphia Scientists, Nimitz observed that "the decision to employ the atomic bomb on Japanese cities was made on a level higher than that of the Joint Chiefs of Staff." (See pp. 330-331, Chapter 26)

http://www.colorado.edu/AmStudies/lewis/2010/atomicdec.htm

(((Who))) would do such a thing to Japan?

>>33684674
The Chinese for what they did during the war

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Rrmqju74A8

>>33684489
>Why didn't they stop. You know. The war with china?

They actually make proposals for that to the US.
However, they demanded the lift of embargo and peace on account of the US puppets in China.

That would, however, mean US stop its own attempts at taking over China and so US declined all of these.

>US actively trying to take over power in China? No way!
Actually, the government that Japanese were at odds with and wanted US to allow have peace with them still exists... these guys formed Taiwan down the line.

>>33683487
That guy makes good touhou loli.

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>>33683487
>Japan not being nuked

>>33686955
Its possible

>>33684446
Yellow monkey detected.

>>33687255
Wrong

>>33684674
Horrible. Itvwas unnecessary.

>>33684526
They asked for an conditional surrender without the backing for one.

They don't make the rules, the US does, and they paid for it dearly.

They deserved both nukes for their hubris.

>>33686955
The nuking of Japan is and still is a war crime.

>>33688777
Nope.

>>33688814
It is. The United States should apologize

>>33688918
Make us :^

>>33688918
Fuck nips. You tiny penis bastards.

>>33688918
Nope, and never.

>>33683625
>Muh Japan dindu nuffing wrong argument
I heavily anticipate the hundreds of replies saying Japan was justified in its aggression towards the rest of Asia.

>>33683487
I don't think it would have occurred as intended. Each arm of the services had their own vision of how to finish the war. So if the Army/Marines did hit tough resistance, I could see them rethinking the overall strategy.

The Naval strategy was complete blockade followed by shore bombardment. The Army Air Corps wanted to continue the fire bombing missions. One of the targets under consideration was the trains delivering food supplies. Without the atomic bombs the likely plan might have been to slowly starve Japan into submission.

>>33684526
>>33684526
>Japan had already sued for peace. The reason the Americans didn't accept it was because the Japs insisted on the condition that the emperor be left alone. Ironically and tragically, the Americans ended up allowing that even after the unconditional surrender.
They also wanted to keep control of Manchuria, Korea and Taiwan. Had the United States waited a few weeks for the Soviets to take their objectives, it's possible that the atomic bombs would have been unnecessary. But it is also possible that conventional bombs might have killed an equal number of civilians in that time. Even then, a fully Communist Korea and a possible Soviet occupation area within Japan may have been too much particularly considering the concessions already given in Eastern Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjygZML_X-o

>>33684377
The nambu fired an 8x22 round, which was weaker than .45 ACP. Furthermore the Nambu was a rather shitty pistol by all accounts.
>>33688918
Eat shit. I have family members I never got to meet due to the Japanese occupation of the Philippines. Yeah, remember when Japan fucked over the territories it occupied? The same shit that they don't like to talk about anymore?

>>33689211
>Yeah, remember when Japan fucked over the territories it occupied?
Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere would have helped them. Instead, they were forced to fight japan by their colonial overlords

>>33689425
>Would have helped them
Yeah, really helped my grand-uncles when they starved to death. Because the friendly Japanese took all the fucking food and medicine in their town. Or when the Japanese would randomly execute men and boys of fighting age for "acting suspicious". Or when they started slaughtering civilians en masse towards the end of the Liberation of Manila.

None of my surviving family member ever had anything good to say about the occupation, and I damn well doubt you could get a Viet, a Chink, an Indonesian/Thai, a Korean, or an Indo/Malay to say anything nice about it. Thanks for all the "help", you Jap bastard. Two nukes weren't enough.

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>Americans think they could be the Japanese

>>33689191
Then why was they so adamant in trying to do D-day in Japan

The use of Atomic bombs was planned in Operation Downfall.
Japan was always going to get nuked. The only question was how many times; twice, or more once the US had a bigger stockpile ready to use.
That plus the possibility of using chemical weapons on the Japanese mainland to kill any hidden soldiers or guerillas. All that in addition to the already occurring firebombings and naval blockade.

Japan really lucked out by calling it quits when they did. But even then some generals tried to arrest Hirohito and prevent him from delivering the surrender message.

>>33688918
The nuking of Japan was the weakest ""war crime"" in WWII.
So much other shit happened, even in the Pacific, that killed much more innocent people but no one gives a damn because it doesn't provide them fuel for anti-Americanism or isn't as flashy as a nuclear explosion.
Japan crying crocodile tears about how they're somehow victims of a genocidal war that they started is completely aggravating.

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>>33689951
Why would we want to be? Also counterpoint to that.

>>33691090
Japan doesn't cry about it. Thy know they got off easy compared to what they did so they keep quiet about it.
Japan has never asked for an apology because they are ware they do not deserve one. Instead they focus on saying that such weapons cause immense pain and suffering and the world should work to get rid of them.
The only one that say "the US should apologize" are trolls, people who hate the US and want to see it humiliated in some way, or bleeding heart fools who don't know what WW2 was like.

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>>33691130
>Also counterpoint to that.
:^)

>>33689510
The Taiwanese somehow liked Jap occupation by most accounts.
Then again their reference frame was kmt and the Qing Dynasty.

>>33691417
>The Taiwanese somehow liked Jap occupation by most accounts.
Unlike all the others. They welcomed the Japs with open arms.

>>33691008
Define "they"?

>>33684526
>imposing an embargo warrants a sneak attack
>refusing to tell someone something is aggression

'no'

>>33688426
>>33684589
>t. Hiroshi>>33684629
Togugawa

>>33688426
>>33684589
>t. Hiroshi Togugawa

>>33691417
>>33692614
Taiwan was first occupied by the Japanese in 1895. The next decades involved large scale pacification of the native Taiwanese. By the end of WWII, 50 years later, only old timers remembered what life was like before the Japanese. Things had been peaceful, the Japanese had developed the island.

>>33688963
Obama already did for you

>>33684629

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31VpWb0Ow4M

>>33688918
No.

>>33693639
Oh thank gof

>>33692729
American Generals?