Taiwan - China scenario

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I've actually thought about this scenario quite a bit the past few days. I believe China could do it, if they had the Chinese public on their side and at least 3 years to prepare. I picture a large overwhelming Chinese force, backed by rocket attacks from the main land, overrunning the island's defenses. Casualties would be in the tens of thousands, but they could do it. I think the best way to go is to get large numbers of troops and supplies on the island asap, before the US Navy blocks everything. Meanwhile, North Korea bombards Seoul and sends a massive invasion force to flood the DMZ and take South Korean towns, dividing US and NATO resources. Iran launches missiles ,supplied by Russia, to take out Saudi and Kuwaiti oil wells and capture Dubai with a massive air and amphibious assault. They take over Kuait and deploy a missile defense shield, provided again by Russia, to block oil exports from Iraq. Than sleeper cells in the United States destroy oil refineries and oil wells in the US and Canada. Than massive Russian armor and infantry divisions invade deep into Ukraine and cut of Natural gas to Western Europe. Venezuela put an oil embargo on the United States and Russian and Chinese troops are deployed to defend them from US occupation as well as provide supplies to the citizens. Eurofags freeze and Americunts have to learn to take bikes to work. Normies wouldn't see it coming.

>>33276053
So basically you think a large force that is cut off from it's supply line?

China would need to be able to keep USA away from it's supply lines in order to effectively invade and hold Taiwan.

Would nukes be on the table?

>>33276053
so basically start world war 3 rise of the red menace, over fucking Taiwan?

>>33276053
If all that happened, which is implausible btw because all those countries cooperating perfectly would be nuts, it would turn into full retard nuking really really fast.

If no nukes, USA produces plenty of oil. So does Canada and mexico. Yurop can eat shit and die. They are useless as allies besides Britain anyhow.

>>33276270
They already are in a way.

The USA will not preemptively nuke the Chinese over Taiwan. But if American attempts to intervene spark, which would be inevitable, sparks a shooting war it would be uncharted territory. From there nobody could really pretend to know what would happen, I tend to think mankind loves protracted wars of attrition too much to blow their load in a blaze of nuclear fire.

>>33276307

Just my autistic ramble really, what do you think?

>>33276136

I was thinking they would have a massive air or amphibious invasion with tons of supplies already with the soldiers and the many defenses already destroyed from rockets. Like 200,000 soldiers there in like 2 hours with 100s of pounds of supplies with each of them. What do you think?

>>33276358

We were already talking about China invading Taiwan so....

Basically if it were to happen the Communist Chinese would ultimately find a way to fuck up, while the non-commie Chinese end up still sitting there on their island laughing. It's the usual trend of communist countries invading smaller countries and fucking it up. I.e. Soviet Union and Finland twice, China and Vietnam, unless they have allies to help with logistics they won't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning a war again the non-commie Chinese.

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>>33274535
>China would already be dealing with a worldwide backlash
>they would do everything they can not to destroy Taipei.

But would they destroy ANYTHING? How about, say, Hsinchu?

>>33276490

But what about The Korean war, when Chinese forces overran all those US soldiers?

>>33276516
You forgot they had the soviets piloting migs for the norks so it's most likely they were also pulling logistics for both the norks and the Chinese.

>>33276393
>I was thinking they would have a massive air or amphibious invasion with tons of supplies already with the soldiers and the many defenses already destroyed from rockets. Like 200,000 soldiers there in like 2 hours with 100s of pounds of supplies with each of them. What do you think?

100s of pounds per soldier? And what are you going to do when you run out? Do you realize how much combat gear weighs already? Also, military vehicles need fuel. Military fuels love to burn fuel. Unless they manage to steal the fuel.

>>33276607

I didn't fully think this out, maybe they would eat and drink local food, use captured equipment, hold civilians as hostage. Just occupy the land until the world accepts Taiwan as China. I was hoping you would elaborate on what they might do.

>>33276687
Relying on scavenging for logistical support during an invasion is something I'd imagine only the Chinese would be stupid enough to do. So you might have merit here.

>>33276764

I was thinking raw man power with large amounts of simple supplies. Assault rifles and anti tank weapons. Do you think that would work? Sudden massive invasion of Chinese soldiers (200,000) with heavy defenses taken out by rockets and some temporary air support.
What would happen?

>>33276514
Hsinchu is too valuable to just flatten. It's the tech and semi conductor capital of Taiwan.

They'll want to capture it

Well it kinnda depends.Should china invade they would probbaly take the west coast which is were most of the people live in as little as a day to hold outs probably lasting a week or so. The eastern mountains would be able to hold out for at least a week. The USA would need to land troops as soon as possible provided congress allows which I think it will. After which it would be like Korea on a much smaller scale and while the commies would have no problem bombing the shit out of the americans the US would have a problem bombing the chinks in the city. Hell if it happened I would be surprised if american losses were more then all of Iraq and Afghanistan put together in 2 weeks time. End of the day China would either have to capture the island before america had a real presence on it so a week if being very generous or china would eventually "lose" due to international pressure. As for actual fighting expect lots of air combat and bombings and if things got batshit korea reigniting and all hell breaking lose.

>>33277216
Oh... damn!

Well, then maybe they'd want to trash it if they can't seize the island, like if they were beaten into a retreat?

>>33276516

they ran into logistics problems out the ass once they went past Pyongyang. and that was with the benefit of the USA specifically not targeting Chinese territory because of fears of escalation.

>>33276307
WW1 happened over some fag getting killed

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>>33276516
That lasted for a short time until Ridgeway helped unfuck the situation MacArthur got everyone in.
>>33274535
Logistically the PRC could probably pull off an invasion of Taiwan, if there wasn't outside interference. If the PLA could land enough troops on the island, it would more than likely mean game over. However I know very little about Taiwan's own defensive capabilities so that's just my 2 cents.

>>33278229
To the best of my understanding the ROCs strategy is to hold off the commies long enough for america to save the day. To achieve this they have modern arms and a strategy that involves holding the beaches for a bit before retreating to the mountains. The only way the commies win is if America flat out says they will not inference and it is an internal matter. I dont think trump would be the president to pussy out on something like that though.

>>33276516
They still managed to lose almost the same amount of men even after outnumbering them like 4 to 1.

Wouldn't the extremely dense urban centers of western Taiwan pose a significant difficulty for any invasion force? The PLA isn't exactly trying to raze the main population centers, and I would imagine that the majority of the goal to be taking and yelling Taiwan. And I doubt many commanders would be willing to tackle such an obstacle like urban combat.

>>33274535
With Trump now in office, not gonna happen. China won't throw away themselves on just Taiwan. Taiwan would be a secondary objective on something bigger and more important.

>>33278080
With a .380 pistol no less.

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>>33277287
Adding to this scenario

IF China does manage to capture a sizeable chunk of Taiwan and the US had to project forces onto the island. I feel itd have a strong almost nostalgic feel of the island hopping campaign we saw in the Pacific.
>America will never conduct a WWll styled island hopping campaign through the South China Sea against China

Pic very related

>>33278815
Do you think the public in this day in age would be willing to put up with an attempt to retake Taiwan by sea? Bear in mind all the angst over iraq and afghanistan were we "only" lost 7k over the course of like 15 years or so. I dont think so if the commies took the whole island the US would be forced to bow to it sure the commies would still be detested globally and it would probably had not been worth it but the lives lost simply trying to get a toehold back on taiwan would be immense and the pansy ass population we have these days would probably not allow it. God imagine the fallout if an attempt to retake the island failed.

>>33274535

Why? What could China possibly gain from retaking Taiwan that it would lose by basically declaring its territory open-season for every other SEA power+NATO?

>>33278844

The Libs are permenantly sour with China after China literally ran over their party in Tiananmen Square. It wouldn't be too hard to convince them that China are a bunch of democracy-hating cannibals.

>>33278844
and especially losing american lives for fucking taiwan
whoop dee fucking do, taiwan

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>>33276359

China maintains a minimum deterrent policy with their missiles and warheads stored separately, they also can't make a quiet submarine so their boomers likely have stalkers. Any indication that this is changing is a tremendous escalation.

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It's quite evident that China wants to flex its muscles by whatever means necessary. Patrolling Afghanistan, strong-arming North Korea, and building artificial islands in the South China Sea I wouldn't be surprised if the CCP had a thorough invasion planned out.

It's just a matter of the political climate at the time and with Trump in office, it's really a wild card as to how the US would respond.

If I were Taiwan, I would invest in as many AA guns and artillery as possible.

http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=taiwan

>>33278890
Just tell the millenials that Taiwan getting invaded would cause their smartphones and laptops to double in price from the factories getting bombed or seized.

Boom liberal riots just like that.

>>33279151
China could invade Taiwan because 2006 Taiwan allowed gays in the military, then now or late last year or earlier this year the wanted to have gay marriage. Now its up to the PLA to liberate Taiwan from western degenerate values.

>>33276136
The thing with China vs Taiwan is that whether American public is willing to send Americans to DIE for Taiwan.

It takes hell of a propaganda spin within USA to convince the public to potentially sending tens of thousands of Americans to die for some country wanna be in Asia.

>>33279353
On top of that, based on interactions with Taiwan students coming to US. The moral of Taiwan's conscript army is not going to be higher than the PRC. Many rich Taiwan family send their children out of Taiwan when they are nearing adult age, to dodge the conscription.

The people that actually got conscripted are not going to be very motivated to die for a cause they know is worthless - as in the entire defensive strategy of Taiwan is hold till outside help arrives. So the conscripts in Taiwan knows they are basically fodder and that can't do good to their moral.

>>33279368
And since chinks don't have enough women to fuck, killing a lot of taiwanese soldiers to marry their sisters to mainland dirty chinks could an actual objective, since it would mean depleting the taïwanese forces out of their men to make room for commies.
Just like the turks did with armenians.

To die or watch your gf get raped, sure can't be very motivating.

Taïwan has just one thing to do : build crude nukes and have a small force of hardass motherfuckers not afraid to detonate them on their own soil in case of a chink invasion.

The most deterrent strategy against crazyness is to be equally crazy.

>>33278844
Sending tens of thousands of Americans to their death for some other country? Not likely.

>>33278882
A well timed "protest" that occurred at the transitional period between two Chinese administrations. Dies quickly leaving no vestiges after the event. In 100 years, when CIA declassify their info, would not be surprised that it is their doing.
Also seeing current riots in the name of left really makes the Chinese government's reaction much more understandable.

>>33279469
Are you aware that Taiwan is chinks? It's two groups of chinks continue a war that should've been finished 60 years ago, if not for the Americans.

>>33278890

Is losing lives for Taiwan better than losing lives for mud huts in Afghan or Iraq?

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>>33274535
>Fascists driven from mainland to small shitty island form peaceful democratic state with modern western values and a decent quality of life
>Communist stay on mainland abundant with resources, arable land and people, transform it into a horrifying fascist hellhole that's brutally authoritative and violent with third world living conditions

How the fuck did they manage it

>>33279525
it's more about acceptability. we lost less than ten thousand over a period of 10 years. a live shooting war with china? it's going to be a lot more than ten thousand in a lot less time than ten years if one side doesn't call it quits real fast. fuckers in this country freaked out about the tet and we beat the living shit out of them there.

>>33276516

In that case China had a land border, the element of surprise, help from the USSR, and was fighting on mostly friendly territory.

To attack Taiwan requires extensive preparation observed by the best SIGINT in the world (Five Eyes), crossing a strait far wider than the English channel (where Operation Sealion was deemed impractical, and Operation Overlord required obscene advantages), and fighting a people who won't welcome the PLA as liberators, without any major allies (even Russia is unlikely to support the PRC in this endeavour).

>>33274535
>China would already be dealing with a worldwide backlash for any offensive military actions taken against Taiwan

Worldwide backlash is overrated. Russia fucking annexed Crimea.

>>33279618
Worldwide backlash is overrated. EU fucking tore a province away from Serbia.

>>33274535

Japan tried to take midway, a tiny outpost, in WW2 with superior numbers of aircraft carriers and were ruined for the rest of the war when they ultimately failed in that battle. And this was against a US Navy that at the time was technically inferior.

China, trying to take a fully infastructured nation with its own military, and the might of the US Navy standing by, while the chinese navy has one carrier? It would be the end of China as an Asian maritime power. Their entire Navy would be at the bottom of the sea. And India would be salivating at that prospect. China would become India's bitch as far as Asian sea power goes.

China isn't dumb enough to commit suicide.

>>33278862
>lose by basically declaring its territory open-season for every other SEA power+NATO?

China absolutely shits on all of its neighbors as far as warfare is concerned.

>>33279525
There was oil in the Middle East.
Even the illiterate American population understand the fact that oil equals power and US needed to secure this shit because they ran a risk of having to buy it off of people like Russians (enemy), Europeans (expensive) or Chinese (enemy).

Meanwhile, Taiwan holds no value aside form prestige of being able to hold up a middle finger to Chinese without them fracturing it.
Losing Taiwan could really, really throw Japanese out of whack. They rely on the defense agreement with the US... If China broke that in Taiwan, they could "defect" to find new allies against China.

>>33274535
Taiwan isn't going to declare independence; they want to retake the mainland and restore the legitimate government of the Republic of China.

>>33278844
The bigger question is if the Trump administration actually has the resolve to come to their aid if the PRC does invade.

>>33279666
Didn't Japan lose at Midway because of a really big fuck-up on their side, basically meaning that a normal assault would definitely succeed?

>>33279555
>rile up the goyim to fight oppression
>use them to make new and worse oppression

Garden variety communism, it all checks out.

>>33276490
Hasn't India also won against China? So.........

>>33279681
The US didn't secure ME oil though. That's a liberal meme.

>>33279715

No India got their asses kicked, mostly because they couldn't establish air superiority and their troops got bombed with impunity

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>>33274535
>http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/15/chinese-media-outlet-calls-for-use-of-force-over-taiwan.html
>growing calls
They fucking say the same thing over and over again for the last 60 years. Nothing happens except for some meme Straits Crisis.

This is East/Southeast Asia. Not the Middle East. People don't go to war here like the derka derkas whenever someone so as much sneezes. The most everyone does is to be assholes to each other while still trading with each other.

Besides Beijing has growing clout in Taiwank politics. They don't have to do anything but let that society of gay marrying Chinks crash their country to the ground.

>>33279727
My bad, I got the war with Vietnam mixed up. Still though. So, this brings up a question. Do you think Vietnam would become our ally again if we throw down with China?

>>33278229
>>33278336

USA has flat out said if China invaded Taiwan (and Taiwan didn't declare independence) they they help out. Japan probably dragged into it too.

That being said, if Taiwan declares independence then USA has said it would NOT help Taiwan if China invades as a result.

Would the USA assist if instead of declaring independence, Taiwan invaded China?

>>33279368
>On top of that, based on interactions with Taiwan students coming to US. The moral of Taiwan's conscript army is not going to be higher than the PRC.

Perhaps right now yes. I'd imagine a lot of the soldiers in the PRC enlisted just so they have steady supply of rice.

I'd imagine Taiwanese military morale increases once China starts dropping rockets into Taipei. Call me crazy but people don't tend to like invasion forces in their backyard.

>>33279681
>China absolutely shits on all of its neighbors as far as warfare is concerned.

China would have a very, very hard time dealing with S. Korea or Japan. Also, Singapore is a heavily fortified city-state.

>>33279779
>USA assisting the aggressor
>especially against China
No

China invades Taiwan: USA has morale grounds to help
Taiwan invades China: Everyone sits around and scratches their heads wondering why the fuck they would do that, and watch as China takes over Taiwan.

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>>33279761
China has recently passed laws declaring succession illegal and use of force authorized to retake such entities (i.e. Taiwan or Hong Kong). They have practically promised any territory that declares independence would brutally be put down via force.

Read a book nerd.

A few points I'd like to add to the conversation:

- In recent years, China has been stirring up nationalistic sentiment more and more - and it's actually starting to become a real problem. People are forcing the government into actions they actually don't want to take as much as they otherwise might.

- China has a culture that /hugely/ emphasizes 'face' - it's significantly more complicated than this, and plays a MASSIVE role in their society, but what it more or less comes down to is: Appearances are everything. You HAVE to project success, power, confidence - whatever it is most appropriate for the time. And this can lead to people doing insanely retarded things all for the sake up keeping up this mask. This is a guiding principle for their government; and obviously, the fact that they're a communist one doesn't help in the least.

- China manufactures the VAST MAJORITY of all drugs used in the united states. I'm not sure on the exact percentage, so don't quote me on it - but last I heard it was _70 FUCKING PERCENT_ ... And as it is, we are a country that has -huge- drug shortages in our hospitals. If we went to war with China, this would be one of the absolute first things they would cut off, and many, many, many Americans would be up shit creek very fast. This is not the same thing as having a shortage of some random fruit. This is a life and death resource, and it wouldn't be good news for our military either.

>>33279818
>China manufactures the VAST MAJORITY of all drugs used in the united states. I'm not sure on the exact percentage, so don't quote me on it - but last I heard it was _70 FUCKING PERCENT_ ... And as it is, we are a country that has -huge- drug shortages in our hospitals. If we went to war with China, this would be one of the absolute first things they would cut off, and many, many, many Americans would be up shit creek very fast. This is not the same thing as having a shortage of some random fruit. This is a life and death resource, and it wouldn't be good news for our military either.

Look into how much China imports food from USA just to feed their massive ass population.

Drugs or food. A lack of which would destroy a country quicker?

>>33279823

Now that's a very good counter-point. I'm going to have to go with food. But, food is easier to ration, in some respects. If you don't have medication, that's a totally different problem.

I think that the shock of not having those meds would be much more damaging to the American public's moral, in no small part because most people don't know or care about where their medicine comes from.

However, I have to agree - I think that though we'd have a number of individuals dying, going through withdrawal or experiencing other effects, the lack of food would ultimately be more detrimental to a country as a whole.

>>33279698
It was mostly because the Americans had broken the Japanese code and knew about their plans well in advance.
As such, the japanese diversion towards the Aleutians was pointless, since the Americans knew it was a bluff and could concentrate their forces at Midway.
Then again, it's not like a japanese victory in the battle of Midway would've ultimately changed the outcome of the war.

>>33279831
A good post. I would also have to add it would be much quicker for the USA to re-direct it's drug manufacturing processes than for China to re-direct it's agricultural system. Food takes time to grow. Factories and processing planes can be built in weeks, if need be.

Ultimately, a country without food will capitulate faster than a country without drugs.

>>33279835

Ah! Another very good point. That's definitely true.

I wonder how quickly we could get the industries we don't have here anymore, running, if we had to? Just the bare-bones basics. We have plenty of raw materials, and presumably could rely on Canda. We're busy pissing off Mexico so badly, one can't say for certain - but they have to live NEXT TO US, so, most likely we'd be able to get some of the resources from them too. I'm pretty unfamiliar with most South American politics, so I couldn't guess about any of them, though...

Rare Earth materials will be a severe problem, however. Remember a few years back when the entire world started freaking the fuck out because China decided (for a hot second) to ration what they traded out? Still, I can't imagine that being such a big deal, because the US forces are already huge.

I also wonder who China would turn to if they needed to import more food - and, come to think of it, given the precariousness of their water situation... Would it be a war crime if we went in and bombed some of the infrastructure that brought it to their populated areas? I know the US doesn't really give much of a fuck about that sort of thing, when shit gets real, and China DEFINITELY doesn't give a fuck about it, but I actually don't know.

>>33279854
>I also wonder who China would turn to if they needed to import more food

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/21/how-hungry-is-china-for-the-worlds-food.html

>Brazil, Australia, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Canada and Argentina

None of which are guaranteed to support China, and a few which are guaranteed to support USA. Thailand being the only one that can move supplies via land, the rest being susceptible to USA naval blockage.

>Would it be a war crime if we went in and bombed some of the infrastructure that brought it to their populated areas?
Yes, according to the Law of Armed Conflict
https://www.thebalance.com/law-of-armed-conflict-loac-3332966

Cheers

>>33279854
>>33279835

Why are you guys talking and debating like civilized persons and not insulting each other's respective mothers? This is really off-putting.

>>33279876
Sometimes adults and people with an IQ higher than a wet gym sock post on this board.

>>33279835
>>33279854

Doesn't India have a large manufacturing capacity for generic drugs? Sure some are poor quality, but I would imagine they are eager for the business.

What matters is not necessarily how much volume of drugs the USA currently gets from China, but how much of global excess capacity is outside of China.

>>33279888
Checked.

USA could go to a couple venues for drug manufacturing. If you were born in the 80s you would remember everything being "Hecho en Mexico" instead of "Made in China". USA has an entire third world continent just south of it. Aside from that, the age of automation is upon us, making countries like China even more irrelevant.

>>33279764
>again

South Vietnam got REEDUCATED

>>33279876
you mom says to stop posting. or she did when i was riding her last night.

So, what countries - if any - would side with China? I'd assume the major motivation would be 'fuck you America' rather than any kind of real friendship towards China, since they're so goddamn domineering and creepy. Maybe Russia? They were making overtures to China for a while - but they know that they'd ultimately be China's bitch.

And another question. Say the war heated up (and wasn't over real damn fast), becoming a protracted affair. Do you suppose they might invade and/or annex any other countries or territories? What would be advantageous or plausible for them? Obviously, everyone loves islands for naval purposes. But there's the plausibility of actually getting a hold of one in the first place...

>>33279976
This whole scenario is retarded because China is OKAY with the status quo and so is the United States.

No one really knows what would go down.

China doesn't have very many official treaty allies. America only has Japan and South Korea. The Philippines is only a defensive treaty.

The US has a significant relative military and diplomatic advantage over China. China knows that so very little actual conflict happens.

China is booming economically though, and establishing huge institutional ties with its neighbors. That's the real game right now

>>33279681

Individually? Perhaps, but with Vietnam, Japan, S. Korea, and the Philippines pounding them at all fronts while they're focused on Taiwan, they're going to be in for a bad time.

>>33280056
>Vietnam
>why yes we will be okay with facing the entire southern PLA army by ourselves for no conceivable benefit

Well, the problem for supporting US forces would be that the Eastern side of Taiwan is full of mountains which make moving and transporting forces impossible.

With the first J-20 entered service. Taiwan is so hopelessly outmatched it's not even funny.

>>33279900
Automation will make China even more relevant.
China is the country that pushes automation the most as largest consumer and producer of automation products.
They have the infrastructure and the political will to do the jump into an automated world.

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>>33280393
>Automation will make China even more relevant.

Yes and no. If that happens you will have a multitudes of jobs the populace won't have. This is due to China's econmony having so many labor driving down the cost of an item/service. Combine that with the housing market bubble in China that is going to pop, and China trying to hold onto USD inside the banks.

I'm guessing that China will be having Economic troubles within 10 years.

China is a winner of the incoming automation.

Apple has 766 suppliers but only 69 of them are in the USA - most of them are in Asia. So even automated factories in the USA wouldn't provide any advantages over factories in China - quite the opposite.

>>33279823
US export of food to China consists about 60% in value of Oilseeds (soy in particualr) and about 20% corn.

Oilseed import is as name implies, for pressing into vegetable fat, Corn for cattle and pig feed in meat production.

Not exactly Chinese staples. Lowering average nutrition intake per capita? Definitely. Starving the Chinese and cause a famine? You are dreaming.

>>33279823
In fact I decided to look into the figures a bit further:

>http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=cn&commodity=wheat
Chinese production in 2016: 128 million metric tons of wheat, and
>http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=cn&commodity=milled-rice&graph=production
146.5 million metric tons of milled rice.

Averages out to just under 200 kg per person annually using a rough population figure of 14 billion. That is not even including Chinese domestic production of millet, soy, rye, oats and corn.

Good luck starving this lot.

>>33279618
Yes and their economy is still reeling from the hit it took.

>>33280668
And yet they still have Crimea and continue to support separatists in Eastern Ukraine.

>>33279327
Have the gays rape any captured PLA soldiers then.

That'll scare the living shit out of them.

I believe the US CIA has already done something similar in Vietnam with the Project Gamma and the MACVSOG special forces teams that did have rape as part of their torture tools.

>>33277439
Man. What the hell is wrong with you. Do you work for Qualcomm or something?

>>33279948
You had your post in her shit, so to speak?

>>33280482

Automation Mechatronics engineer here. I've been all over the globe and especially China.

Their automation is just what you should expect, making cheap trinkets cheaply (Apple is the #1 prime example of throw away toys).

America is absolutely the leader in automation, making substantial sized industrial robots for substantial product manufacturing. Between US and Germany, China can never catch up in controls, or robots.

>>33279802
It's called indirect diplomacy and that's it.
If they wanted to invade Taiwan, they wouldn't bother with laws and such.

China will be one some day.
But that won't be the result of a armed conflict.

>>33280038
>This whole scenario is retarded because China is OKAY with the status quo and so is the United States.

Pretty much.
Competition is not only about guns and China is generally winning over US with GDP improvements.
As long as they can battle the problems like the population drop effectively, every moment that they§e not in conflict is a moment they're catching up and making US less and less relevant as a superpower.

>>33280885
Sure

>>33280885
Not going to include Japan in the? Isn't FANUC one of the biggest in the business? Then there's MAZAK, Mori Seiki, etc

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How could you even win a war for Taiwan? What, are you going to defend it until China gets tired of sending troops at you? That's not going to work and will be a repeat of the Vietnam war. The only way to win would be to invade China itself, defeat it, and make a new government from the people of Taiwan. It's a situation that is so unlikely to happen because of nukes that you may as well just let Taiwan die or give THEM nukes.

>>33281167
If shots are fired then the situation has deteriorated to the point larger war is inevitable, Taiwan will only be the Flashpoint.

>>33274535
>Taiwan has decent defensive capabilities, however it's military equipment is very outdated

so they have shit capabilities.

China could easily take over Taiwan, America would struggle to blockade such invasion since it would become an all out war if that's the case then perhaps america could stop the invasion, without full intervention from the USA taiwan would fall in a month.

>>33280894
not so fast chong dong
pic related.

Can't wait for china to start asserting dominance over the south china sea or trying to drill for oil.
Vietnam is develping quickly in about 10 years they will stand up to china unless the USA and allies stand up against china first.

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>>33281276

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>>33274535
Whatever the odds, I'll be rooting for the feckless commies to get their shit pushed in,

Will someone make a kickstarter to buy Taiwan some second hand Abrams or Leo2?

>>33276600
>You forgot they had the soviets piloting migs for the norks so it's most likely they were also pulling logistics for both the norks and the Chinese.
>>33279593
>help from the USSR

you guys are seriously overestimating how much aid the the soviets gave.

there was a severe underestimation of chinese soldiers, some of whom have started fighting the japanese since 1932-1945 and then the KMT until 1949. you've got veteran chinese soldiers with a number of years fighting against enemies with superior weapons and logistics and living off scavenged materiale.

i don't understand how people can accept that the chi-coms won a guerrilla war against the japanese and kmt, but then somehow think that they'll start doing ww1 tactics against a similar enemy.

if the us and china get into a land war somehow, there's going to be a rude awakening for you people that underestimate the chinese. i don't doubt the us would win such a war, but it would not be won easily.

>>33281503
The USA doesn't even the logistics for such war.

>>33281503
>i don't doubt the us would win such a war, but it would not be won easily.

Imo, it would be people like us, the rest of the world, who would be the only winner if the Earth's leading economies decided to drag each other down a notch.
The US would literally be sending its paid professional soldiers, super-expensive equipment to go kill and destroy their own factories and factory workers.

That would be pretty darn stupid on their part and a fun "All according to keikaku" moment when people caught up to the fact it means higher taxes and more expensive everything as embargoes out of the ass would start flying around.

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>>33274535
And this is why 69 years later the ROC still hasn't been invaded.

>>33279047
>I wouldn't be surprised if the CCP had a thorough invasion planned out.
It's no secret they do, it's been a top national priority for 69 years after all. But it's mostly about face. As long as the ROC sits there quietly and does business it's a positive thing for the PRC, it's economically valuable even without bringing it under their rule. And they'd much rather take it like Macao or Hong Kong has been taking - leaving the gooses alive and still laying eggs. Even the prospect of some day, far in the future, absorbing it peacefully, along with the day to day economic value of having it as a trading partner, is enough to stop them from invading indefinitely.

But there's face involved, and the ROC is not always quiet. Anytime they draw attention to themselves it embarrasses the PRC leadership who then have to find some way to show they are 'tough.'

If enough noise is made enough face will be at stake that the PRC will have to invade even if they think it's probably suicide.

>>33281503

Nobody is disparaging the fighting ability of the PRC in Korea, the point is that if it wasn't for the materiel supplied by the USSR, they would not have been able to sustain a war of this intensity.

If it wasn't for the Mig-15s (both USSR and PRC piloted), USAF bombers would have had free range to interdict and without USSR supplied artillery, the Chinese troops would have suffered far worse during the slower later stages.

This is the key issue, the idea that the PLA could force a hostile landing and take-over on Taiwan before anyone could intervene is ridiculous.