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J-20 absolutely dominates the Red Sword excercise in China

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Thread replies: 379
Thread images: 51

Some rumors about the on-going military exerise in Dingxin:

>2 J-20 vs J-10/11 backed by AWACS
>J-20 promptly shot down the AWACS first, then dominate the J-10/11 in combat
>it is said J-10/11's radar cannot detect J-20 even within visual range
>several J-10/11 are shot down within visual combat range

Next few days, PLA may try anti-stealth radar array to develop tactics to defeat J-20.

Not sure about the radar installed on J-10/11 since it is depend on block/version of the fighters, however since all China's AWACS are equiped with AESA radar, so its safe to say J-20's LO is robust to AESA radar's detection.

http://lt.cjdby.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2329857&extra=page=1
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>>32311147
Satellite images confirm that two J-20s have participated in the Red Sword excercise in Dingxin.
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>>32311148
J-11 were actually the J-16 (equipped with 450km ranged AESA)

And J-10B/C (PESA for B and AESA for C)
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like the indian su30s dominated redflag when the scenarios suited them?
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>>32311152
Serial production is continuing; 78274 signifies the 24th serial J-20 produced.
>>
>>32311147
It may be that chinese awacs is subpar, it also depends on what kind of awacs it was.

Further, all aesa is not created equal, and mature PESA systems can outperform new aesa systems.
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>>32311154
Oh, forgot the AWACS shot.

And a tanker as well.

Seems to be the priomary things that are on the J-20 menu.
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>>32311159
KJ-2000:
>>32311160

It actually has the world's longest ranged AESA radar - and the most advanced, as it is based on the Israeli Phalcon and uses a three-faced fixed array (unlike the obsolete rotating PESA on american AWACS)
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>>32311154
>24th

and it confirms that the first J-20 regiment might be ready in the near future.
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>>32311147
Thanks for the laugh m8.
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>>32311164
Radar range comparisson; 470km range for the Type 88 AESA for the KJ-2000
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>>32311176
Thanks for the hearty kek.
>>
>>32311164
>It actually has the world's longest ranged AESA radar

You actually have no data to back this up.

>and the most advanced,

Being that the US has a variable rotating UHF AESA awacs, with more known specs, i would say, objectively, no.

>(unlike the obsolete rotating PESA on american AWACS)

Wrong, and shows your ignorance.

Shill better or not at all.
>>
>>32311147
>rumors

What a shitty thread
>>
>>32311178
US awacs is stated to go out to 556 km.

So its not the longest ranged awacs.
>>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ca1lFxevCM

Look at that obsolete rotating toy.

Kek.

America, why so 1960s?
>>
>>32311196
depends on target size.

China's benchmark target size is always 2.5 square meter.

America's is somewhere around 5-15

Russia's always 15+
>>
Three more J-20A about to depart the CAC plant.
>>
>>32311201
America always is a fighter sized target, with no given rcs, again nice try.

Although i would love to see a source for the 2.5.
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>>32311191
Sorry, but UHF cant accurately pinpoint any fighter sized target.
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>>32311211
Not only can it pinpoint fighter sized targets, it can guide SM series missiles to them.

Nice try.
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>>32311208
Sorry, I was wrong.

It was actually 0,1 to 0.4 square meters.
>>
>>32311147
Impressive

Now that is called results, with results like that, I believe China's domination in the Pacific is unquestionable.
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>>32311217
Sorry, but meter wave radars just cant.

It's physics.

I'm so sorry fo you.
>>
>>32311221
Againt Japanese, Korean and American legacy planes quite certainly. And it is expected.

Not, they have to develop anti-stealth tactics with the J-20 as well.
>>
>>32311147
J-20 + PL-15 = death of all AWACS

Just tried the a CMANO scenario with it.
94nmi ranged PL-15 rekts all AWACS, and the J-20s continue to chew through the enemy fighter screen from behind.
>>
>>32311218
>one specific radar
>is now all radars

Lol

>>32311222
Well, you better call up lockheed and tell them that they are breaking the rules, beause it can and does
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>>32311235
>PL-15

Oh that vaporware missile that does not exist?
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZoUNHtY3pQ

Footages of said Red Sword Ex.

No J-20 showed, but J-10/J-11 doing air combat and J-10B conducting SEAD etc.
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>>32311221
How will the US respond? Can they even respond to this anymore?

No I don't think so.
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>>32311249
https://twitter.com/OedoSoldier/status/799261161271095296

Another video that shows more.

The J-20 would be a pretty good SEAD platform when equipped with internally carried CM-102 HARM...
>>
>>32311239
Carlsisle believes it exists.

And that it is better than anything the US has right now.
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>>32311267
>Carlsisle

Belives its getting developed.

You chicom shills have an issue with differentiating between "in development" and "in service"
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>>32311263
>J-8 also participated

Holy shit, they were probably victimized as fuck.
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>>32311274
PL-15 is now even seen onboard low-tier fighters like the J-10B.
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>>32311280
Except thats a PL-12.

I too, can mislable amraams and pretend they are some kid of next gen missile.
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>>32311287
This is the PL-15

China has two next gen missiles in development; PL-15 and PL-XX AABM.

PL-15 was first launched in 2012 and is now slowly being introduced and the PL-XX has just been tested recently onboard a J-16.
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>>32311290
Your pic is the pl-15?

Might want to update your shills on that, they have been peddleing that missile as some yet un nammed missile.
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>>32311290
>that's the trajectory

Holy shit it's literally a 120D that's twice the size for not even twice the range! How fucking embarrassing!
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>>32311290
>PL-15 was first launched in 2012 and is now slowly being introduced.

Yet all you have is one grainy photo with no offical numbers, pictures, or info?

Your pic looks like a k-100-1 btw.
>>
>>32311318

>yfw america can just throw an SM-6 on a rail for twice the effect without needed ballistic tajectory.

Lel
>>
>another "chink" thread
>>
Awesome, soon we'll have the Chinks recruited to the pro-stealth cause, and just the vatniks will be left with tears in their eyes as they desperately call stealth a meme.

> MUH SERBIA F-117
>>
>>32311320
Thats because it IS a k-100. Holy shit.
>>
>>32311147
Nothing is better for innovation than an opponent worth innovating against
>>
I wonder how's it gonna perform in an actual international excercise. Oh wait, they will never send it to one, because just like the F-22, it won't be as invincible as it is hyped to be.
>>
we need the nips to start raping again
>>
>>32311235
>Just tried the a CMANO scenario with it.

Are people supposed to take comments like this seriously?
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>>32311351
F-22 was sent to many international exercises.
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>>32311353
>desperate for some hole chinese conscripts trying to catch up a neet from burning APC's in some Baoshit village in North China
>>
>more Chink stronk bullshit
Fuck off xin quang
>>
>Chinese now figured out that steath is a huge game changer.......30 years too late.

Hahahahahahha
>>
>>32311351
F-22 is on exercises constantly, even overseas. what the fugg you talking about
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>>32311147
>it is said J-10/11's radar cannot detect J-20 even within visual range

Well that bodes very well for F-22 and F-35 then

Presumably J-20's radar isn't a significant advance on J-10/11's either.
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lol amerifats in full defensive mode now
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>>32311147
I'm so glad Donald Trump is willing to stand up to China.

The theft of American innovation, especially military innovation cannot go unanswered. This includes technology given to Israel who then sells it to China.
>>
>>32311429
You mean like shitting on the F-35 program?
>>
>>32311430
More like bringing down the cost of it.
>>
>>32311420
strange way of looking at it, but when all you do is squint i guess everything is strange
>>
>>32311432
Not going to happen.

His retarded tweet already wiped LM stock down a few pegs for no other reason than to be the moron that he is, and the project is complete.

Currently, the project is UNDER budget. Not that he would know.
>>
>>32311254
>How will the US respond?
with the usual xenophobic hysteria.

expect an increase in military funding, in preparation for a war that will never happen.

the only victim will be the taxpayers.
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>>32311441
>F-35
>under budget
which one?
>>
>>32311420
I mean, it was china being BTFO the entire thread, they didnt even know of US aesa AWACS.

The chinese are the ones who should be defensive, they have been peddleing that stealth is a meme for years, now they have seen the truth.
>>
>>32311429
God bless. Fuck the Israeli two faced government they deserve nothing
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>>32311416
GaN AESA.


Better than anything the US has.
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>>32311254
>>32311444

Work on the next generation strategic fighter was already weighted when production of the B-21 got the clear and the F-22 was deemed inadequate as a long-range escort: this will probably cement that decision.
>>
>>32311360
Yes because CMANO is the closest we get as civilians. And it's literally used by defense companies and others.
>>
>trusting the validity of any claim coming out of China
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>>32311654
Trusting your autism.
Not even once.

Go be a dumb fuck on pol, fag.
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>>32311648
>He thinks the version of CMANO on Steam is the same one BAE uses.

That's like saying Sweden would BTFO Russia because that's what happened during my last playthrough of ARMA 3.
>>
>>32311648

1. The CMANO that you buy is not the same as the CMANO that is made available to defence companies.
2. CMANO can be easily manipulated into giving any result.

So no, you should place very little stock into what is marketed and sold as a video game.
>>
>>32311646
>strategic fighter
really? that's so WW2

why not just accept that bombers are not survivable against modern threats, escorts or not, and pour money into missiles instead?
>>
>>32311709
>why not just accept that bombers are not survivable against modern threats

But anon, they are.

Even the old b-2 stands up to modern threats.
>>
>needs parachutes
>>
>>32311723
at least that's what Northrop says, to keep the money flowing.
>>
>>32311159
Not really.

It's all about the energy output of your radar system and there is a practical hard limit for PESA in that regard.
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>>32311643
According to that chart, the F-22s updated GaA out ranges the chinese GaN radar.

Greater than 400km for a 1m2 target.
>>
>>32311731
B-2s have been out of production for 15 years anon.

No vertical surfaces mean that even VHF radar will have a hard time detecting it.
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>>32311739
The F-22 should indeed outrange a J-10 radar.

Would be pretty sad if a larger radar couldn't beat a smaller one.
>>
>>32311472
>Now
>2010

really makes you think
>>
I like hearing Chinese aviation news but why is always presented so bombastically and with so much dick waving which just leads to people getting riled up?

>>32311277
The J-8H/F can still pull mach 2.2-2.4 at least
>>
>>32311759
It only appears like dickwaving because the butthurt Americans.

Can't go 5 posts without some post how shit China is and the USA is better anyway.
>>
>>32311759
>The J-8H/F can still pull mach 2.2-2.4 at least
Fighters don't go that fast, especially old ones. It would probably be bingo fuel by the time it got to those speeds.
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>>32311748
stealth is much more complex than having no vertical surfaces.

there is a good reason why the production b-2's had to be retrofitted with equipment for low-level penetration.
>>
>>32311379
Yeah, and it is getting rekt constantly.
>>
>>32311794
Whats your definition of "wrekt"?
>>
>>32311756
Its not as if it merely edges it out, it blows it out of the water.

In fact, i do belive the apg-77v1 is the worlds longest ranged fighter radar.
>>
>>32311812
Sure you read that
>>
>>32311827
>Sure you read that.

Did your translator fail? Want to try again?
>>
>>32311773
But it's true. Go ask your sister.
>>
>>32311812
$0.2 have been deposited in your account.
>>
>>32311791
>there is a good reason why the production b-2's had to be retrofitted with equipment for low-level penetration.

Dont confuse the B-1 with the B-2.

>stealth is more than (x)

Yes anon, stealth is a combination of factors, but due to the b-2 essentually edgeing out to an infinite plane to the radar, it makes it very hard to detect with VHF.
>>
>>32311441
Funny how everyone is going out of their way to defend the MIC when before the Boeing tweet anyone would have agreed that military spending is out of control, but as soon as Trump says something about it there is suddenly nothing wrong and liberals start freaking the fuck out about LOCKHEED MARTIAN, of all fucking companies, stock dropping a couple points.
>>
>>32311852
Good sir, i am payed in burgers. This is not china.

>who knew that fact could trigger you more than trump talking to taiwan.

Find a fighter radar with more range.
>>
>>32311858
Lockmart stocks already basically recovered. They finished down 2% from a 4% drop, and today they are sitting at 1%~ up.
>>
>>32311881
Which makes it even more hilarious that the left and media bent over backwards to defend LM when any other day they would have shit on them. EVERY single thing Trump says, they do the opposite of, at this point he needs to start making statements in support of things the left loves, just watch them turn on the subject and start hating on it like a teen does when their parents do something the kid enjoy.
>>
>>32311857
>Dont confuse the B-1 with the B-2.
But i don't:
>The [B-2] bomber's design was changed in the mid-1980s when the mission profile was changed from high-altitude to low-altitude, terrain-following. The redesign delayed the B-2's first flight by two years and added about US$1 billion to the program's cost.
If it's so invisible, why make it fly under the radar and risk visual/IR detection and ground fire?
Source: Goodall, James C. "The Northrop B-2A Stealth Bomber." ISBN 0-87938-609-6.

>it makes it very hard to detect with VHF
Actually, surface shape has little effect on radar return at VHF / UHF frequencies.
Source: Ufimtsev, P. Ya. (1971-09-07). "Method of Edge Waves in the Physical Theory of Diffraction"
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>>32311147
Ah yes a Chicom claim thread in which they didn't even know about AESA AWACS.

Into the trash it goes.
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>>32311969
western butthurt is strong in this post.
>>
>>32311975
Oh look, no pen.
>>
>>32311975

>shows an explosion
>not the aftermath

For what purpose.
>>
Every China thread is like this.

China leaning anons would cite sources or show pics and American leaning anons would spout memes to invalidate the thread therefore killing the thread and any chance of a decent talk about Chinese military technology. Can't be helped if America has to rely on asymmetric methods.
>>
>>32311982
no i swear it totally was like blown up alot believe me guys seriously
>>
>>32311779

It's not a fighter, it's an interceptor, it's supposed to 'GOTTA GO FAST'
>>
>>32311964

You said production B-2's and retrofit. It was a pre production requirement that was added to the B-2, unlike the B-1.

Furthermore, your source states. "from high-altitude to low-altitude" which is incorrect, it was added to include low altitude along with high altitude.

Source: http://www.northropgrumman.com/Capabilities/B2SpiritBomber/Documents/pageDocuments/B-2_25th_Anniversary_Fact_Sheet.pdf
>>
>>32312000
Yes, sources like CMANO or the Chinese MOD / """""""leaks"""""""

Very convincing, indeed. Could we just have that verified by anyone el- oh, no. of course not.
>>
>>32312000
More like PRC leaning anons post state or industry propaganda that is refuted by actual sources.

Usually any actual discussion of PRC military tech is heavily skewed by people who believe aforementioned propaganda.

Like the post that started this thread...
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>>32311982
I never understood this.

Like, I get why you'd show it and only the impact if you're making propaganda, but it's garbage for trolling or BDA.
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>>32312009
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>>32312000
>sources
>OP is literally "rumors" from people shitposting on forums

nah brah

nah
>>
>>32312000

More like china leaning anons will spread lies, and hope to get away with it.

Gems from this thread include..

>"It actually has the world's longest ranged AESA radar"

100% false.

>"and the most advanced"
unverifiable, most likely false due to range.

and finally, the crème de la crème..

>"unlike the obsolete rotating PESA on american AWACS"

Which is 100% flase, due to american awacs having both AESA of a higher range and wavelength, and also due to the claim of obsolescence.
>>
>>32311779
J8 is an interceptor
>>
>>32311249
That's DEAD not SEAD
>>
>>32311160
If I was an E-3 crew, I'd be scared shitless right now, but that would be implying that the the E-3 is even our front-line AWACS platform for use against peer states at this point.
>>
>>32311147
>its safe to say J-20's LO is robust to AESA radar's detection.
So basically, it's safe to say it is because the chinese say so?
>>
>>32312063
And that's assuming that China's shitty AESAs are anywhere close to ours.
>>
I love how quickly this thread refuted chicom propaganda, and how assblasted the chicom posters are.
>>
>>32312074
>assblasted amerifat
>>
>>32312058

They even threw an AESA on an E-3, one from westinghouse, the other from GE i think.

Then they said "why".
>>
>>32312058
SPOILER ALERT: It isn't, and it likely hasn't been for nearly a decade now.
>>
>>32312078
>being this mad

The only real china is the Republic of China.
>>
>>32312080
>>32312083

I'll cum in my pants if Trump decides to pull the curtain back on the E-3's big, invisible, unmanned successor, or even another member of her family, just to thoroughly BTFO the Chinese.
>>
>>32312074
It's been happening a lot recently, both with chink/slav shill threads and "muh jooz" Israel threads. Memes can't beat facts.
>>
>>32312000

Whilst I am no fan of the jingoism on this board, yourself and threads like these do nothing but put China in a foul light. All the underhanded shit you say and do just undermines any credibility you have.
>>
>>32312083

E-3, with RISP, due to its pulse dopplar radar, can actually do OTH missions, and find planes behind mountains and what not...which is actually pretty cool.
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>>32312108
E-3 can't do OTH missions.

Nothing that small could do that.

It can do BTH missions, which are vastly different.
>>
>>32312108
to add...

However, the dopplar radar, while having the range (400 km+), has major issues due to its design.

Its very easy to jam, and slow targets (helicopters) are ignored.
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>>32311154
>24th serial J-20 produced
Proofs? How does that number mean anything
>>
>>32312108
Oh, it's no slouch for sure, and is still the best white-world AWACS in existence.

I just think it's idiotic to believe that we don't have one or two airframes of something much, much better for day 1 ops against a peer state.

Something like a bigger RQ-180 with a conformal AESA that flies at ~80,000 feet and can loiter for 24 hours while having the RCS of an airsoft bb.
>>
>>32312126

Ahh, my mistake.
>>
>>32312138

Shit, we have the E-2D right now, UHF AESA AN/APY-9.
>>
>>32312138
great way how to win any argument
>china has X
>that's nothing, america has Y
>really? show us
>can't, it's top sekrit
>>
>>32312146
Now imagine that hardware adapted to a loitering X-45 derivative thanks to a few billion black budget dollars and you have the reason why China will never dare do anything more than rattle sabers at us.
>>
>>32312146

This, 556 km range, from a carrier launched awacs.

Fucking incredible. Apparently its elint suite can detect and classify targets beyond that.

Oh, and due to being aesa and having 120 degree beam steering, you cant do PL-XX AABM attack route without being seen, and then countered (basically flying in another direction, BM's suck for moving targets)
>>
>>32312088
yeah keep supporting your orange headed fascist dictator and provoking china, you will learn your lessen quickly not to fuck with and will be begging for mercy.
>>
>>32312161

The problem is America has had X for decades.
>>
>>32312172

> you will learn your lessen quickly not to fuck with and will be begging for mercy.

>not to fuck with

Lel, no we wont. Your country does not have the balls. And if you did find those balls, the US will help you lose them.
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>>32312172
>and will be begging for mercy.

Ahh yes, is this what "begging for mercy" looks like? Did US learn its lesson "not to fuck with"?
>>
>>32312161
Luckily our "sekrits" are open ones, just look at the TWO completely unidentified platforms that the USAF teased in 2014.

Word is that the Amarillo sighting was of Northrop's cranked kite-shaped sub-scale demonstrator for the LRS-B competition which was actively testing at that point.

As for the Wichita sighting, there are rumors that it's either a deep-penetrating synthetic aperture radar ISR and target designation aircraft in the vein of the AARS/QUARTZ program from the late 80s/early 90s, or some sort of loitering stealth AWACS.

Our black budget is known to be in the tens of billions annually, it's certainly going towards SOMETHING.
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How does the J-10 stack up against the Taiwanese F-CK 1?
>>
>>32312201
toilets, the money goes into shiny new toilets.
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>>32312172
>>
>>32312218

>doubting skunkworks

We already know we have operational airframes, being actively used, that we know NOTHING about.
>>
>>32312214
All we really know about is the F-CK-1A, which came out a decade before the J-10.

It would not stand up. But many revisions came after.

Taiwan, contrary to chicoms wishes, would not just collapse under attack. They cant rain Ballistic missiles on half of the country, and the place is a damn fortress.
>>
>>32312249
And there are at least a half dozen of them. At least.
>>
>>32312214
>F-CK
>Actually censoring a swear
>>>/reddit/
>>
>>32312175
how is that a problem?
they both now have X.
>>
>>32312272
Bruh...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDC_F-CK-1_Ching-kuo
>>
>>32311290
>GPS
>using US satellites to shoot down its planes

Is this image serious?
>>
>>32311211
It's an AWACS
>>
>>32312289
>>32312272
lel
>>
>>32312272

H*CK off, you're not fr*cking in charge
>>
>>32312172
#1 Taiwan
#2 Japan
#3 Worst Korea
#4 china
#0 USA
>>
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>>32312253

Most of the F-CK-1's have been upgraded to F-CK-1 C/D standard now but that was basically just a midlife overhaul with improved electronics and ECM, and improved weapons loadout and payload but, the J-10A is just... newer than Taiwan's weird F-20/F-16 baby.
>>
>>32312373

They said they overhauled the radar and engines too, which is a real weak point
>>
Taiwan itself states that they could stop China for one week.

In reality it would mostlikely not even take a week for China to gain control over Taiwan.
>>
>>32311153
Indian Su-30MKI fighters only dominated the RAF Euro Typhoons in dogfight / knife fight range.

At all other scenarios, the Typhoons defeated their foes.

BVR = Typhoon wins

MRC = Typhoon wins

Running / chase engagement = Typhoon wins

WVR = Su-30MKI wins.


Which is why, the Tranche 3 Typhoons are getting thrust vectoring engines, to make them work in WVR against other super maneuverable jets.
>>
>>32312476
India didn't even win the WVR battles.
>>
>>32312467
>In reality it would mostlikely not even take a week for China to gain control over Taiwan.

WE WILL BE HOME BY CHRISTMAS!

Reality is taiwan is heavily fortified.
>>
>>32312467
Real China would have no problem holding off lesser mongolia indefinitely.
>>
>>32311178
>470km
>>32311196
>556km
Against what RCS size?
>>
>>32312526
>Taiwan
>fortified
>>
>>32312476
>Indian Su-30MKI fighters only dominated the RAF Euro Typhoons in dogfight / knife fight range.
Ummmm no sweetie

https://theaviationist.com/2015/08/08/have-indian-su-30s-really-dominated-raf-typhoons-in-aerial-combat-with-a-12-0-scoreline-most-probably-not/

>A spokesperson for the RAF just said: “Our analysis does not match what has been reported, RAF pilots and the Typhoon performed well throughout the exercise with and against the Indian Air Force. Both forces learnt a great deal from the exercise and the RAF look forward to the next opportunity to train alongside the IAF.”
>>
>>32312583
Against knockoff Kazakhstan? Easily.
>>
>>32312574

MiG-29s
>>
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>>32312583
>Shards of glass defend frontline pillboxes just 1.8 kilometers (0.7 miles) across from China on Taiwan's Kinmen Island, on August 22, 2011. #

That will stop China!
>>
>>32312612
The average lesser manchukuo soldier instinctively avoids broken glass because a cut is a death sentence in their polluted homeland.
>>
>>32312612
>>32312583

Meanwhile taiwan has built airbases into the sides of mountains.
>>
>>32311147
>Chinkshit planes face off against chinkshit planes, the winner was a chinkshit plane
Wow, who would've thought ?
>>
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>>32312072
Chinese AESA are superior to US AESA.

late adopter's advantage.

doesnt have to go through the analogue age, but directly start off with solid-state full digital processors.
>>
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>>32312672
And China has GaN AESA.
>>
>>32312672
Then why does US AESA radar have higher ranges?
>>
>>32312689
Because the US standard measurement for RCS targets is 5-15 square meters.

China's is 0.1 - 0.4 square meters.
>>
“I don’t know why we have to be bound by a One China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade,” he said in an interview.

Whatever Trump says, he sounds like a 12 years old.
>>
>>32312693

Wrong on both counts, kiddo.

>inb4 you post a random excerpt from a specific radar and imply its like this across the spectrum.
>>
>>32312660
And China will be able to crash those mountain holes via ballistic missiles to not let a single plane out.
>>
>>32312708

BM's cant strike those targets due to, you know, the giant fucking mountain.
>>
>>32312589
It's says quite a bit when a NATO state tells the press that the third party state is full of shit.

But India has a history of being bad participants in such maneuvers.
>>
>>32312702
Example:
J-10B AESA capable of detecting 0.03 sqm RCS target at 130km.

In the USA, they would say

F-16V VIPER ADVANCED RADAR BY LOCKHEED MARTIN HAS 5000^10km range


(against moon-sized mono-block of metal)
>>
Jiashan Airbase is the only airbase in Taiwan with underground hangar.
>>
>>32312732
Sorry, I meant

"5000^10 MILES"
>>
>>32312732
>inb4 you post a random excerpt from a specific radar and imply its like this across the spectrum.

And then you did.
>>
>>32312751
Notice something?

Chinese ranges are always very conservative, as they measure them with small RCS targets.

America always measure them with large RCS targets and thus are worse than the Russians who also claim that their IrbisE has some quadzillion km of range.
>>
>>32312279
Because progress does not stand still. This isn't Civilization where you just research Jet Fighters and now everyone is on an equal footing.

The Chinese are developing technology now the US has had for decades, and the US has not been stagnant for decades.
>>
>>32312718
BM can strike their entrances and rain down submunitions on the runways.
>>
>>32312765
>America always measure them with large RCS targets

Raptor is 400+km with 1m2 RCS.

>1m2
>large
>>
>>32312774
>talking about RL isn't CIV
>still use that thinking

The fastest supercomputer in the world uses Chinese processors.

You don't try get you to the point of jet technolgy of the year 1990 and call it a day but you bring yourself to state of the art technolgy
>>
>>32312786

BM's will hit the opposite side of the mountain.
>>
>>32312787
>fantasy stats

It's 200-240km
>>
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>>32312765
The US ranges of identification are always for identifying targets that are plane sized.

You'd have an argument here if China had tiny combat drones. But they don't. It doesn't matter if the US can't detect a spec of dust at 500 meters if it can detect planes at 50 miles.
>>
>>32312791
What
Did you run this through Google Translate?
>>
>>32312799
That was before the v1 upgrade that brought it 10-15 years forward in AESA tech
>>
>>32312822
>v1 didn't upgrade the range of the radar
>>
>>32312732
More like the f35 EOTS can see an object 800 miles away!
>>
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>>32312074
>>32312101

It's good practice for when the shilling kicks up to full tilt after January 20th.
>>
>>32312834
Except they replaced the T/R modules with next-gen versions from the F-35.
>>
>>32312198
Oldmeme I'd old. Barry shifted the B-52s to the ME, put Lancers there instead.
>>
>>32312859
And by there I naturally mean Guam.
>>
>>32312799
>The aircraft's Northrop Grumman AN/APG-77 AESA radar system is able to detect enemy aircraft radar at distances of up to 285 miles (460 km).

http://www.fi-aeroweb.com/Defense/F-22-Raptor.html

>New, active electronically scanned radar technology—optimized for digital throughput—is ex-pected to soon push next-generation radar ranges, in narrow beams, out to 250 mi. or more.

http://www.webcitation.org/6Qpsm5PUo?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.f22-raptor.com%2Fmedia%2Fdocuments%2Faviation_week_010807.pdf
>>
>>32312848
No

It was to provide the radar with air-to-ground capacities.

The modules still operate at 10 watt and the central computer unit is already at its limit - it couldn't handle more information.
>>
>>32312791
Google translate isn't working.
>>
Why can't you just let me earn money in peace?
>>
>>32312882

They straight up replaced the GaA moduals.

Face it, the raptor has the longest ranged fighter based radar in the world.
>>
>>32312876
>detect
>>
>>32312732
Using the radar equation, the J-10B's AESA would have a range of:

376.06km against a 10m^2 target
278.32km against a 3m^2 target (for comparison with the Irbis-E)
211.47km against a 1m^2 target
177.83km against a 0.5m^2 target
118.92km against a 0.1m^2 target
66.87km against a 0.01m^2 target
37.61km against a 0.001m^2 target
21.15km against a 0.0001m^2 target (a metal marble; the approximate frontal RCS of an F-22 or F-35)
>>
>>32312894

I actually feel bad for 50s who get paid to do this kind of shit. About as thankless a task as CTR on /pol/.
>>
>people so butthurt that they are using fantasy stats
>>
>>32312894

Im sorry, little chang starves again tonight.
>>
>>32312894
>one garlic clove has been put in your Glorius People's Pot.
>>
>>32312934
>multiple sources
>fantasy stats
>>
Does anyone have an archive link to all of the blatant Chinese propaganda these shills have been spamming lately. I ask because I think it's time this matter got an expose on /qa/ as well as an e-mail or two to the site owner about the shenanigans of the .50 crowd.

Hopefully it will move him to consider either country flags for /k/ or, even better, rangebans for red China.
>>
Does this all mean that President Trump will buy J-20s to save tax payer money?
>>
>>32312967
>multiple sources
>>
>J-20
>stealth
It can't even hide from an E-2D with UHF AESA with 400+ km range.
>>
>>32311176
Topkek m8. Saved.
>>
>>32312989
He will ask his son who is good with computers which aircraft he likes the most in War Thunder.

I hope you love the Ho 229
>>
>>32313006
see
>>32312876
>>
>>32312986
>red China
You mean lesser Taiwan.

Also, flags would help.
>>
>>32311147
holy fuck so many murrikan butthurt like usual.

fuck the chink tho
>>
>>32312481
The WVR battle was a Pyrrhic Victory, the Indian Airforce "won" the WVR fight, but suffered severe losses while doing so as Typhoons smoked them hard early during the merge.
>>
>>32311147
So their 5th generation fighter did the same thing in their big fancy exercises that ours did in our exercises?

Not sure where the surprise is.
>>
>>32313032
The problem with flags is that it invariably results in more wight being put on where you are from than on the content of your argument. You see this mostly on /pol/.
For example, I can't post a single thing there without
>Muh jooz
Overriding anything I say.
IDs, though, would be useful for recognizing samefags and shills.
Rangebans might be the solution.
>>
>>32313039
I see the vatnik has "graced" us with his presence.....the thread is now complete and can end on schedule.
>>
>>32313079
I don't browse /pol/ but I get what you mean. Calling commies out is fun, especially if they go hungry for it.

>Rangebans
Can't proxies evade this?
>>
>>32313128
>muh bad russia

Go suck Hillarys dick fagot
>>
>>32313183
>actually thinking trump likes russia

LEL
E
L
>>
>>32313157
>Can't proxies evade this?
They can, but it eliminates the low end of the scale (those who can't figure out proxies)
>>
This is interesting, and while I do not believe the shit Chink media churns out, I'm sure serialized productions of the J-20 puts China ahead of Russia in the air dominance scenario. It's really interesting to see how it will turn out, the J-20 has more chances to see some actual fighting than the F-22.
>>
>>32313232

>the J-20 has more chances to see some actual fighting than the F-22.
In conflicts that won't involve the F-22?

Nice post number by the way.
>>
>>32313261
I think he meant that China's more likely to go to war against an enemy with an air force than the US.
>>
>>32313280

My point is that the most likely of those enemies are US allies. Except India, I guess.

>slavshit-on-slavshit violence
>>
>>32312876
>no target size
>>
>>32313018
>Modern American Ho-229..

Please stop, I can only get so erect.
>>
>>32313316
>>32313280

China & Pakistan Vs Russia & India

PLZ PLZ PLZ PLZ PLZ
>>
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>>32312906
Kinda makes sense and in line with this pic:
>>
>>32312986
Kek.

Butthurt american who cant win against our arguments is now trying to do the same thing he claims to hate the most: Censorship.

[spoiler]Chinese IPs are already banned due to ad-flooding, just FYI[/spoiler]
>>
Using radar in the first place.

Modern radar warners are capable of intercepting radars in LPIR mode and provide a fire solution.

Go passive or go home is the future of air-to-air warfare.
>>
>>32313794
>Modern radar warners are capable of intercepting radars in LPIR mode

Maybe.

>and provide a fire solution.

Only in high end american ones.

Who knows about anyone elses.
>>
>>32313813
>Only in high end american ones.

kek
>>
>>32313515
India sinks their whole fleet inside their harbor and Russia is happy since they can milk them for more obsolete ships.

Meanwhile, China dominates the Indian Ocean via Gwadar Port.

The End.
>>
>>32313813
>Only in high end american ones.

Ah, that american space magic argument...

How come that you still dont have any GSO-altitude ASAT missiles, unlike China?
And no GaN radars? Or even AESA on ships?
>>
That reminds me based on "trustworthy" Russian experts.

China is supposed to get 4 of the 24 Su-35 between the 10th and 20th December.

Only 6 days left to become true.
>>
>>32313818

Why is that a joke?

AN/ALR-94, AN/ASQ-239, and ALQ-218 are the only ones capable of geolocation.

>>32313833

Why are you bringing up unrelated arguments.
>>
>>32313860
>AN/ALR-94, AN/ASQ-239, and ALQ-218 are the only ones capable of geolocation.

>what is EuroDASS Praetorian?
>>
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>>32313860
>AN/ALR-94, AN/ASQ-239, and ALQ-218 are the only ones capable of geolocation.

And the wing-mounted sensor arrays onboard the J-20.
>>
>>32313860
>Why are you bringing up unrelated arguments.

Because "American Magic" does not exist.

America is behind in several fields of technology, and the ESM/ELINT arrays of the F-22 are at least 20 old and obsolete technology - just like the SPY-1 series is or the US space warfare systems.
>>
>>32311204
So this..... Is the power of....... Mass production
>>
>>32312774
>This isn't Civilization
exactly. the chinese don't need to climb the tech tree from the bottom up.
they can use the advances in technology that were made in the last decade to skip to the top.
>and the US has not been stagnant for decades.
that did what in that time? one software update to F-22? and F-35 uses the exact same radar, but with less t/r elements.
>>
>>32313933
>china is perfect and invincible
>>
>>32313957
>things which were never said
>>
>>32311441
>Currently, the project is UNDER budget. Not that he would know.

Uhh no
>>
>>32311759
>why is always presented so bombastically and with so much dick waving which just leads to people getting riled up?

It's not. Read the first 4 posts by OP.

People getting butthurt about it lead to our Chinese friend going full "muh claims are X" mode. Creates a vicious cycle.
>>
So

>China dominates the supercomputer business
>China has the largest hypersonic wind tunnel
>China builds the most modern wind tunnels

Yeah, China will never catch up
>>
>>32313893
Source? I thought it just located via the sensor fusion with the IR?

>>32313895
Literally nothing is known about said arrays or what they do.

>>32313911
Anon, where did i claim any magic existed?

You seem to be projecting here.
>>
>>32312012
>that is refuted by actual sources.

There actually is very little official information on China's airplane/missile capability. Not much on America's either.

So what are these "other sources"?
>>
>>32313998

Realistically, chinas supercomputer is just a huge office building full of paralleled sup par processors.

Its brute force personified.

The wind tunnel thing is true though.
>>
HAHAHAHAH CHINA STRONK USA CANNOT HELP JAPAN. WE WILL REVERSE NANKING AND NUKE THAT PLACE TO OBLIVION.
>>
>>32314040
Seems to me that computer modeling is becoming more prevalent over wind tunnels, especially when stealth shaping is becoming more important and newer aircraft designs are straight up just giving middle fingers to aerodynamics.
>>
>>32314026
>Source? I thought it just located via the sensor fusion with the IR?

It can both.

Though the focus on IR makes more sense if all nations realize that staying passive is maybe better.
>>
>>32313967
>implying it's not what you meant
>>
>>32314063
Well...source?
>>
>>32314040
>more energyefficient than the previous Intel based supercomputer
>>
>>32314072
Yes, they do use low power processors.
>>
>>32312876
>is expected

So not currently?
>>
>>32314085
The article came out before v1 was released.
>>
>>32314040
>Realistically, chinas supercomputer is just a huge office building full of paralleled sup par processors.

>most powerful TOP500 supercomputer
>third most energy-efficient TOP500 supercomputer

>subpar
>>
>>32314040

CyberSec IT here...
>Its as that post said.
Seriously, its all day.. it starts almost exactly at 9, slows around noon for lunch; picks back up around 1ish and ends by 5/6. (Their time)
Its fucking insane, just packets after packets all day in hopes to crash something or find a way in, and thousands upon thousands of bullshit emails

its nothing to be scared of , or worried about.. its basicly a Nigerian scammer only on roids and backed by a superpower ...
its like a legit day job for them.. they clock in try to fuck with American companies and go home. Everyday. like clockwork, for years now

They get next to nothing done.
But theres always tomorrow
> "Its probably the Chinese fuckery" is a valid response in my field to things that you just cant answer.
>>
>>32314097

Yes anon, its powerful, because its a fucking office building FILLED with racks.

Yes anon, they do use low power processors.
>>
>>32314112
>I have nothing to say
>>
>>32314091
Any article on it actually having been released?
>>
>>32314097
You do realize they will be beat in 2018 right?
>>
>>32314137
Technology is sure great isn't it?
>>
I love the new supercomputer race.

Also one of the reasons why Russia's claims about super hightech weapons are so silly.
>>
>>32314131
https://defense-update.com/newscast/0407/news_020407.htm#raptor
>>
>>32314127
i...already said it?
>>
>>32314102
Local time? South Mongolia is 12 hours off.
>>
>>32314196
>pulled stuff out of his ass
>>
>>32314196
>>32314206

its not like things cant run 24/7.
>>
As cybersecurity IT expoert he should know that most attacks come Russia right now.
>>
>>32314236
*from
>>
>>32314242

That from is the last of your worries in that dumpster garbage fire of a post.
>>
>>32314236

Yeah, no.

http://gulfbusiness.com/revealed-10-countries-from-where-most-cyber-attacks-originate/

China is number one.
>>
>>32314206
>lesser Kazakhstani doesn't understand time zones
>>
>>32314097
China is pretty good at making energy efficient CPUs.
>>
>>32311858
It's not about defending the MIC. It's about getting things correct when the President Elect is shitting out opinions which don't even have a nodding acquaintance with reality. He's tweeting shit that has serious real world consequences for our economy and military procurement with google/wiki-tier incorrect basic facts.

That kind of shit should terrify you, especially when he's refusing to take his daily intelligence briefings because he's a "smart guy". People who are actually intelligent understand that there's a difference between processing information well and coming to good conclusions with the data available, and pretending that you don't need basic data to make an informed decision/opinion on a matter.
>>
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Are Chinese vehicle crews also this highly efficient at killing as their civilian counterparts?
>>
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>>32311975
anon your pic related is useless unless it also shows aftermath
>>
>>32314364
omg the guy on the bike that almost got away XD
>>
>>32314339
You just to need to make better "deals"!
>>
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>>32311164
>>32312323
>>32311198
>>32312672
>>32311164
>>
Makes me wonder what China would pull off if they are running the same budget relative to the GDP like the USA.
>>
>>32314364
NOOO, OPTIMUUS!!!!
>>
>>32311801
Probably that they have to gimp it hard so that everyone besides the Raptor pilots can get some practice other than dying.
>>
>>32314443
lol
>>
>There are people from Worst China, in this thread, right now, getting paid cents on the post to argue with teenage boys about their military capability
>>
>>32314569
At work, all I could find was a 500x500 pic and a copy of Paint
>>
>>32314339
Is this the same "basic data" that got us into Iraq and told us ISIS was the JV team
I'm not saying intelligence agencies aren't important but it's totally possible they're bloated with massive budgets and superfluous positions that feel the need to justify themselves
>>
>every post not biased against china is a paid shill
>>
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>>32311147
RIP Pierre Sprey and his anti-stealth fags.
>Only the USAF has shown that stealth is effective in AtA. They're covering up the F-22's and F-35's failures!
2 PLAAF J-20's curbstomp a bunch of J-10's and J-11's
>AWACS will make short work of the stealth meme
J-20's proceed to kill the AWACS first
>Its an overly expensive fad that only USAF cares about
Chicom's invests in it and shows good results
>There's no way that the USAF's simulated kill record for stealth fighter is realistic. They must have cheated!
PLAAF comes to the same conclusions with a less stealthy fighter.
>A ton of cheap, AESA radar-equiped aircraft is a wiser investment than one stealth fighter
J-20's proceed to destroy a bunch of AESA-equipped fighters.

Get KEK'd.
>>
>>32314629
By your logic, no one should listen to or put stock in any data they receive from any source which is not their own eyeballs.

>be wrong once, or have your conclusions co-opted and corrupted for political ends
>never, ever be correct or accurate about anything else ever again

This is literally a toddler's concept of rational thought. There's a reason why terms like "reputation", "information confidence interval", "credibility", "reliability", etc. exist in all known human languages.

Cutting yourself off at the knees and ignoring all information because some people got some things wrong that one time is pants on head retarded, ESPECIALLY when it comes to the intelligence community. We only really hear about their work when they fuck things up, we don't generally hear about unqualified successes. Without proper clearances, there is literally no one you as a citizen can make any sort of qualitative judgement on their overall body of work or confidence interval.
>>
>>32314639
>being so new you dont know the basic OP structure of chicom posts

Lurkmore, faggot.
>>
>>32314661
>with a less stealthy fighter
i like how everyone stated to take that as a fact even though they have zero evidence.
the actual RCS of both F-22 and J-20 is classified for obvious reasons.
>>
Has anyone actually seen the thing flying around like a fighter jet?
>>
>>32311235
>>32311360
>>32311648
>>32311685
>>32311702


CMANO is the ultimate Garbage in/Garbage out example.

Well crafted, realistic scenarios with plausible OOB and capabilities can produce useful results.

Or you can create a scenario where any result you want can be obtained. I can make a scenario where a CF Adams DD sinks a Kirov BCGN, doesn't mean it is realistic.

In order for ANY conclusion from CMANO to be taken seriously, the scenario would need to be examined in detail.

Even so, the answers CMANO gives are limited to tactical scenarios, and can provide little insight into strategic outcomes.
>>
>>32314803
>Even so, the answers CMANO gives are limited to tactical scenarios, and can provide little insight into strategic outcomes.
This. At the end of the day, anything past a limited flare-up engagement cannot accurately depict the direction of theatre-wide engagements. Strategic logistics will be far, far better indications of how such large scale conflicts would go.

CMANO is fun to play with, and as noted can be surprisingly informative when the bounds of the scenario are set up to scrupulously reflect reality, current tactics, training and as much bias as possible is ruthlessly culled from the setup. However, 99% of all civilians without prior naval training or service simply do not have the background or knowledge to do this. Guess and best approximations can be made and played with, and those are fun. But predicting the outcome of real world events without access to the training and experience of the participants is a recipe for garbage data.

It would be like modelling the outcome of WWII engagements with only passing knowledge of tactical training and doctrine at most levels on both sides, whilst also flying blind on the full extent of intelligence, radar and remote power control turret capabilities (the modern CMANO analogue being the nebulous nature of information about submarine ops and subsurface sensor assets, EW capabilities across the board, satellite recon assets, etc. on both sides). Claiming prescience on real world outcomes with such informational handicaps is ridiculous, and turns CMANO into little more than an engine to drive confirmation bias.
>>
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Key design goal of the J-20 programme was to have the operational range to operate in those areas.

J-20 is supposed to cover the full area of Japan, Taiwan and the largest part of the South China Sea.
>>
CMANO team doesn't have access to the important data of any modern system.

To be fair not even the intelligence agencies have them so any simulation operates with a range of options.
>>
>>32314873
can someone translate?
>>
>>32314873

J-20, for strike ops, cant internally carry any AShM's as far as i know, beyond using some chicom mavericks.
>>
>>32314901
Paper says that the J-20 must reach the capitals of most of the neighboring countries (bolded countries are Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and India) - which would give it an operational range of 1500km as design requirement.
>>
>>32314868
>Strategic logistics will be far, far better indications of how such large scale conflicts would go.
Exactly.
You can use CMANO's to give you a good idea of what would happen if 50 MiG-21's jumped 2 F-22's, but it can offer nothing about the plausibility of such a scenario.

In order to produce tangible results from CMANO you need to do a lot of research outside the game and develop a knowledge of how these weapon systems are deployed in the context of their respective nations.


>(the modern CMANO analogue being the nebulous nature of information about submarine ops and subsurface sensor assets, EW capabilities across the board, satellite recon assets

I will disagree with you on this point somewhat.
They do an admirable job of modeling satellites and EW assets, and by combining Lua scripts with well researched background information, the rest can be implemented.

>>32314892
>CMANO team doesn't have access to the important data of any modern system.

Doesn't mean it can't be useful, but again, GI/GO
>>
>>32314947
>>32314935

>Oppenheimer !!bd8BUj0eKSN
>>
>>32314953
What?
>>
>>32314947
>I will disagree with you on this point somewhat.
>They do an admirable job of modeling satellites and EW assets, and by combining Lua scripts with well researched background information, the rest can be implemented.
Those three areas -
>scale, power, operative frequencies and cyber war capabilities of various EW assets
>max resolution and sensor packages of various intel satellites
>specific details on operational submarines, sound radiation profiles at different speeds and water conditions, sensitivity and capabilities of their sonar gear, location and sensitivity of static hydrophone network emplacements
are some of the most protected information in every military on the planet. In naval ops, the only more protected information is in the crypto shack.

CMANO may have done an excellent job analyzing and extrapolating available data, but there is no possible way they got all the details even in the ballpark when ONI doesn't even have 100% information confidence on all those systems.
>>
I'm quite impressive how every control surface is moveable.
>>
>>32314724

https://youtu.be/VyCagF0RUQQ

Here, not much to go of though
>>
>>32315003
>CMANO may have done an excellent job analyzing and extrapolating available data, but there is no possible way they got all the details even in the ballpark when ONI doesn't even have 100% information confidence on all those systems.

Agreed.
That being said, I do not believe that the missing data would have a major impact on the outcome of most scenarios.
If you run a well researched and plotted scenario 100 times, having the real data rather than the abstracted product might alter the outcome of each run a handful of times.
I don not think it would totally reverse the outcome of most well constructed scenarios.
>>
>>32314873
The joke about China is that a lot of data about their stuff are quite open for everyone. Main problem is that no one speaks (at least all the media "experts") can't it that stuff so either they forced to rely on American and Russian sources which are of course biased in several ways.
>>
>>32315062
>Main problem is that no one speaks (at least all the media "experts") can't it that stuff

wut.
>>
>>32313933
>China stole tech from your country
Wow, this is like real life Civilization.
>>
>>32315058
>If you run a well researched and plotted scenario 100 times, having the real data rather than the abstracted product might alter the outcome of each run a handful of times.
Except in the basic premise of the scenario. Take our WWII example of accuracy in these areas:

>without knowledge of US intel, code breaking and infiltration of Japanese comms before Midway combined with the Yorktown's quick turnaround at Pearl, no possible scenario the Japanese could have run for how Midway would go could be remotely accurate, nor could they develop useful tactical decision trees for the battle

>without knowledge of the UK/US compromising of Enigma, including obtaining working examples of the KM 4-rotor version, any planning/scenario work the KM would do to limit allied ASW tracking effectiveness in the Atlantic would revolve around avoiding naval patrol craft and finding ways to spoof radio direction finding gear and limit radar exposure, without addressing the underlying issue

>without knowledge of the design shortcomings of the USN Mark 14 torpedo, and when specifically each issue would be finally addressed, IJN planning and simulation for effective protection against commerce raiding would be severely hampered with several months in which nasty surprises jump up and bite them on the ass

>without full foreknowledge of the number of ships refitted with and the sophistication of USN late-war radar directed fire control and remote power control turrets, the IJN has severe deficiencies in modelling what might happen in a Surigao Strait engagement

Those are just four specific examples off the top of my head with direct analogues to the limits of available information in CMANO.

CONT
>>
>>32315058
>>32315288
Further classes of examples:
>platform operational weaknesses which only reveal themselves in actual combat, like the Hood magazine operations/armor deficiency, South Dakota's electrical problem at Guadalcanal, IJN deficiencies in damage control, etc.
>doctrinal/training weaknesses which only reveal themselves when tested in combat, like early war USN fighter tactics/training, the Japanese/German disadvantage of leaving their best pilots on the front line instead of rotating them to train new pilots and pass their wisdom on, the evolution of naval combat aviation/carrier tactics in general through WWII, etc.
These things are impossible to accurately predict 100%, even with "perfect" pre-conflict intelligence.
>>
>>32315288
I see your point, but are not all of these examples of strategic level issues, rather than tactical level?
The midway scenario involves strategic intelligence. I agree that CMANO has no ability to model strategic moves.

The Enigma is also a strategic issue rather than tactical one.

You are finding strategic level assets and pointing out their effect on tactical level questions.
Properly designed scenarios account for these.

You seems to be expecting CMANO to produce some sort of metaphysical truth, and that is nonsensical. Criticizing it because there might be some event that no one could foresee ignores basic tenants of wargaming.

>>32315302
Of course there are always some unknowns. You can not expect any modeling tool to have omniscience.

I am starting to have problems understanding your point. Would you mind restating it for me?
>>
>>32315302
>doctrinal/training weaknesses which only reveal themselves when tested in combat, like early war USN fighter tactics/training, the Japanese/German disadvantage of leaving their best pilots on the front line instead of rotating them to train new pilots and pass their wisdom on, the evolution of naval combat aviation/carrier tactics in general through WWII, etc.

To expound on this, every one of these could be tested with a well designed scenario.
>>
>>32314712
i don't know, OP was seemed factual, and it's not like they revealed some unexpected information.
>a stealth plane did what it was designed to do
>>
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>>32313929
A weapon to surpass Gundam.
>>
>>32314661
Now, only the vatniks are left.

They, too, will be converted to the stealth ubermacht when the T-50 first joins their Vatknik Flag excercises.
>>
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>>32315062
Language barrier is the first line of defense for Chinese OpSec.

But those who dig into their papers, realize that there isnt so much OpSec at all!

WU-14 HGV paper related.
>>
>>32315611
Great for internet shitposting, terrible for actual opsec.
>>
Likely another new J-20 in CAC.

But "OpSec" forces covered the tailnumber with an icon.

Fuck them.
>>
>>32315611
>>32315700

This really has started to convince me to learn mandarin.
>>
>>32315611
Remember that Stealth was first invented by a Russian scientist, but their Airforce rejected it, so the papers went into an open source library in Moscow.

CIA sent some guy there to simply photocopy the book.

F-117 happened.
>>
>>32315423
>I see your point, but are not all of these examples of strategic level issues, rather than tactical level?
>The midway scenario involves strategic intelligence. I agree that CMANO has no ability to model strategic moves.
No. The entire point, down to the CMANO tactical level, is who knows what when. Yes, they try to model theatre intelligence assets like satellites, EW, etc. and they do the best with what they have, but they have only very vague ballpark guess as to the full extent of maximum range detection for theatre detection tools (for instance, the sensitivity and ID capabilities for an E-2D or P-8 working with weaker emissions from over the horizon), much less strategic assets like satellites. Who knows what and when is ten times more important than who wins in a massed saturation AShM exchange.

>The Enigma is also a strategic issue rather than tactical one.
It is both. It is a strategic intelligence product which has direct and very tangible implications in tactical operations, training, countermeasures, everything across the board. If you do not have that information as a German, there is literally no tactical game planning which will give you good, accurate decision options.

>You are finding strategic level assets and pointing out their effect on tactical level questions.
That's kind of the entire point. The problem is CMANO incorporates some strategic resources while ignoring others (an attempt at reproducing some types of satellite recon while completely ignoring long range SIGINT or HUMINT all together, for instance) and all of them have very significant repercussions on simulation at the tactical level.

CONT
>>
>>32315423
>>32315487
>Properly designed scenarios account
That's what I'm trying to tell you. If you don't know about them, or have vague/incorrect understandings of them, ALL your data is then corrupted. I'm here to tell you that not even the best informed ONI officers in the USN can claim 100% confidence intervals on all opposing platform evaluations, much less training or doctrine assessments.

>problems understanding your point.
That is because you are misunderstanding the nature of the problem. It's not a tactical/strategic dichotomy. It's how one feeds into the other, and how small mistakes or misinformation at one crucial point can poison the entire well. Consider the example of IJN underestimation of USN radar FC and RPC turret features from 1943 on conjoined with their complete missing of how important those features would become VS optical FC etc., and how it affected nearly every naval and naval aviation engagement of the last half of the war.

That's why your supposition that taking CMANO as a very uniformed civilian and drawing any sort of real world conclusions from results beyond having fun with it is very, very dangerous. There are problems/wrinkles/nuances which are only revealed in actual combat. There are design deficiencies which are only revealed in combat. There are training/doctrine weaknesses which are only revealed in combat. In all three cases, something incredibly strong on paper is suddenly rendered moot, which is why I mention Hood, South Dakota and IJN damage control for examples.

>a well designed scenario.
For the last time, not if you don't have the initial information or the information is not revealed until it is combat tested.

CMANO is fun and sometimes very informative about how modern combat works at a basic level. But to extrapolate results and apply them in any way to inform real world decisions about conflict or military procurement is extremely dangerous and sure to be, at the very least, flawed if not completely wrong.
>>
>>32315758
Uh, no. Petr Ufimtsev developed the basic math and theory, but the USSR completely missed the implications and couldn't figure out how to actually implement it in the real world. It wasn't until Denys Overholser came along in 1970 with the Echo 1 computer that they could begin seriously modelling the concepts in the real world.

Your claim is like saying Da Vinci is directly responsible for the Blackhawk Helicopter because he thought about the basic theory of the thing.

Implementation in the real world is 95% of the work.
>>
>>32315777
>>32315766

So in your opinion, all wargaming is inherently flawed?
>>
>>32315880
Yes. Trained military and intelligence officers know, understand and deal with this uncertainty in every exercise, simulation and operational assessment. It's part of the profession, and one of the most important parts of their training in intelligence and tactical/strategic planning. Building margin into plans for, as Rumsfeld would call them, "unknown unknowns" and constantly salting expectations and planning with awareness of the limits of your knowledge and coloring of your bias is extremely important.

It's a world of greys, and scales of confidence. That's why you have run full speed away from anyone trying to sell you on a 100% confidence assessment which includes elements of conjecture based in but not completely encompassed by observable fact. Even after the fact, with historical documents on both sides, the question of who knew what when, why certain things were done, how certain platforms performed in a combat environment, with all those resources there is often long-term and unresolved debate.

The American public gets news like "Indian fighters are better because they beat X USAF unit in Y exercises", and then they get confused when the DoD comes back and tries to communicate that it isn't as simple as the press would make it. Just look at the kerfuffle over the Millenium Challenge, for instance.

It's a game where the best informed professionals in the world have to assign less than certain confidence factors to their assessments. Taking a civilian market product without complete access to their resources and then drawing real world conclusions with declarative, 100% confidence is insane.
>>
>>32315950
This. A tool is only as good as the user. And a user who is too inexperienced or untrained to understand the limits of his tool yet is still willing to rely on that tool is one of the most dangerous entities on the planet.
>>
>>32315950
>Yes
Idiot detected.
https://news.usni.org/2015/03/18/opinion-the-navy-needs-a-wider-look-at-wargaming

https://news.usni.org/2015/03/18/document-memo-to-pentagon-leadership-on-wargaming

https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2016/12/can-a-military-mindset-succeed-in-a-civilian-classroom/510371/?utm_source=atltw
>>
>>32315950
>Taking a civilian market product without complete access to their resources and then drawing real world conclusions with declarative, 100% confidence is insane.

I said specifically that I did not think that was a good idea.

I maintain that proper use of CMANO can provide useful information. Your insistence that a wargame must be omniscient or it is worthless is silly, in my opinion.
>>
>>32315950
Let me ask you this. Do you have any evidence that information that is wrong in CMANO would have an effect on any scenario in it?
Feel free to be specific.
>>
>>32315990
>Idiot detected.
I never said it had no value. Learn to read. I only noted that there are inherent flaws to the process which all participants need to keep in mind and address so that wrong/tainted lessons are not taken away from the process. Again, this is something military professionals learn and understand at a very basic level. You having difficulties with the concept only underlines the limitations of civilians waving CMANO around as a stamp on their understanding of possible conflict.

>https://news.usni.org/2015/03/18/opinion-the-navy-needs-a-wider-look-at-wargaming
No where in that article does it say wargaming is a perfect representation of real world results. In fact, the debate centers around how best it can be used as a teaching and training tool.

>https://news.usni.org/2015/03/18/document-memo-to-pentagon-leadership-on-wargaming
Full of qualifications like:
>when done right
>potentially
>led by...oversight and support
etc. Nowhere does it say wargaming is without flaw.
>>
>>32316035
>No where in that article does it say wargaming is a perfect representation of real world results.

I have never claimed that it was. You are the only person holding that up as a standard.
>>
>>32316027
>Your insistence that a wargame must be omniscient or it is worthless is silly, in my opinion.
I said absolutely no such thing. I only noted that taking topics and evolutions as complex and uncertain as a modern naval military engagement, using an information-limited tool like CMANO, planning it as a civilian without training, experience or full information access, and then running the simulation with full knowledge of both sides and without accurate understanding of doctrine and tactics on both sides DOES NOT produce realistic results with which one can make assertions about real world events.

Not even naval professionals claim to have 100% confidence in their own assessments, and a civilian who doesn't even understand what they don't know and where the pitfalls are will get poisoned data from a poisoned well every time, either in a big or a small way.

That said, there are many ways CMANO is extremely useful:
>entertainment
>education of the public about basic features of modern combat
>education of the public about basic features of military platforms and how they might be used
>useful in communicating concepts from military leaders to the public to depict ongoing operations or their own planning
etc.

You know, the things it was meant for.

It was never meant to be a holy grail silver bullet to support or destruct the usefulness of military platforms in the real world.
>>
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>>32312844
Looks like a new chubby girl is blocking the way.

As expected of chubby girls
>>
>>32316033

Not him, but i can make a plane undeadable with "wrong" information, and the UI would not show it.
>>
>>32316067
>I have never claimed that it was. You are the only person holding that up as a standard.
Then you are incapable of reading. And I quote: >>32315950
>Yes. Trained military and intelligence officers know, understand and deal with this uncertainty in every exercise, simulation and operational assessment. It's part of the profession, and one of the most important parts of their training in intelligence and tactical/strategic planning.
No where do I say it has to be perfect. I noted, immediately, how important it was for professionals to assess, account for and always be aware of the inherent flaws of the wargaming process. Not that wargaming should be perfect.

Your Black/White bifurcated understanding and assessment of real world complex issues severely limits your understanding of the usefulness and pitfalls of complex issues like extrapolating real world lessons from simulation.
>>
>>32316088
Chubby girls not willing to do the same amount of work as other girls.

As expected as chubby girls.

>no payload
>>
>>32316033
Are you claiming CMANO has as much information as military intelligence professions, or that even they get everything right?

The fact that you're trying to argue this from a standpoint of "CMANO's data is absolutely correct" just shows how poorly you understand the concept of extracting usable data from simulation.
>>
>>32316088
moar chinese planegirls pls.
>>
>>32316087
>I only noted that taking topics and evolutions as complex and uncertain as a modern naval military engagement, using an information-limited tool like CMANO, planning it as a civilian without training, experience or full information access, and then running the simulation with full knowledge of both sides and without accurate understanding of doctrine and tactics on both sides DOES NOT produce realistic results with which one can make assertions about real world events.

Thats exactly what I have been saying.

My further point is that the lack of knowledge of some capabilities is not sufficient to erode the confidence in the tool.
Properly constructed, CMANO can produce useful answers.
>>32316115
>limits your understanding of the usefulness and pitfalls of complex issues like extrapolating real world lessons from simulation.
I think you would be surprised at my experience in deriving real world results from simulations.

>>32316102
>Not him, but i can make a plane undeadable with "wrong" information, and the UI would not show it.
Thats not properly using it, now is it?

>>32316124
I'm not the guy you are responding to, but my point on this is that the flaws in the game are not enough to invalidate all conclusions from a properly constructed scenario.
>>
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>>32316134
I just got the J-20.
>>
>>32316115
The fact that you are saying this to someone and you have no idea who he is makes me think that you are just a fucking idiot.
>>
>>32316157
>My further point is that the lack of knowledge of some capabilities is not sufficient to erode the confidence in the tool.
Anon. Jesus. How the fuck can you make any sort of confidence assessment when you not only don't know what you don't know, but you have no clue how to go about even FINDING OUT what you don't know? Don't you see the major issue here? Unless you're using it or consuming it for the following basic reasons: >>32316087
>>entertainment
>>education of the public about basic features of modern combat
>>education of the public about basic features of military platforms and how they might be used
>>useful in communicating concepts from military leaders to the public to depict ongoing operations or their own planning
>etc.
you are completely missing the point.

>Properly constructed, CMANO can produce useful answers.
About what? Exactly? The usefulness of a military platform? How the fuck, exactly, will you do that when you are tactically untrained and inexperienced in the tactics and doctrine of either side? Don't you see the problem here, before we even get into the weaknesses in the nuts and bolts of the actual simulation, things like using a RNG to predict real world events?

>I think you would be surprised at my experience in deriving real world results from simulations.
I think you are in so far over your head you don't understand where the surface actually is. Not even computer graphics artists and modelers working in CGI would make the basic reality/simulation mistakes you have ITT.

>I'm not the guy you are responding to, but my point on this is that the flaws in the game are not enough to invalidate all conclusions from a properly constructed scenario.
Except that you have no where near enough information or training to understand which conclusions contain usable lessons/data, and which do not. That fact alone throws every real world conclusion you make based on CMANO into serious doubt. That you don't even realize this is tragic.
>>
>>32316172
Capability is demonstrated by stated thought, anon.

You have already told me more than I need to know about your thought process on this issue to have a pretty high confidence that you have little to no real world experience with recovering real world intelligence from wargaming, or really even understanding and working with the philosophical or practical interface between simulation/modeling and reality.

You are walking proof of the "garbage in/garbage out" truism.
>>
>>32316205
>. How the fuck can you make any sort of confidence assessment when you not only don't know what you don't know,
Because you know that the conclusion is predicated on the assumption that the information you are working with is accurate.

>How the fuck, exactly, will you do that when you are tactically untrained and inexperienced in the tactics and doctrine of either side?
Then you are incapable of constructing a proper scenario.


>I think you are in so far over your head you don't understand where the surface actually is
I don't think you are understanding any point except your own silliness.


>Except that you have no where near enough information or training to understand which conclusions contain usable lessons/data, and which do not.
Then you aren't constructing proper scenarios in the first place.

>>32316222
I didn't post that.
>>
>>32316222
>telling oppen he doesnt know what hes talking about.

Wew lad.
>>
>>32316283
Oppen indeed is just a more sophisticated troll.

He reads books, which is rare, but his "findings" are inane as ever.

I still remember him being repeatedly BTFO after citin 1980s data about Chinese fissile material enrichment plants being closed - and claiming that there is absolutely no policy shift after the Deng-era. As if the histories and politics of other countries are always static and never change from the obsolete data of his few books he has read.

He's someone who belongs to Reddit.
>>
>>32316277
>on the assumption that the information you are working with is accurate.
That. That right there. You don't even understand where the limits in your information are.

Basic question: between the US F-4 and Vietnamese MiG-17/19/21, which aircraft wins in combat?

>Then you are incapable of constructing a proper scenario.
If you assume you have perfect grasp of opposing tactics and strategy, and understand all the deviations from these baselines which would occur in real world pressure situations, then you are either god or an idiot. No simulation or real world events teaches one lesson, only a range of possible lessons with carefully considered confidence factors attached.

>I didn't post that.
You posted >>32316067
>You are the only person holding that up as a standard.
Which was either a disingenuous strawman or a complete failure in understanding the issue at hand.

The question was "Is wargamming inherently flawed?" The answer is yes. Yes it is. That is why professionals are trained to account for flaws, bias and information shortfalls at every step of the process while making assessments.

>>32316283
That's not Oppenheimer. He actually understands the limits and uses of game theory and wargamming possible outcomes. Not once in this thread has he posted under Oppenheimer's trip.

Someone posted >>32314953, which, as you will note, IS NOT IN THE AUTHOR LINE. Way to get snowed by bullshit.
>>
>>32316330
>and claiming that there is absolutely no policy shift after the Deng-era.

I remember asking you several times for evidence that fissile material for military purposes was in production.

You never responded. The information I provided was from 2014.

Please take this opportunity to provide evidence.
>>
>>32316357
The information I provided was from 2016.

Checkmate, shitposter.
>>
>>32316346
>That's not Oppenheimer.
Indeed.

I am following along, and don't entirely agree with your position, but I see the merit in your approach.
No simulation can give 100% accurate conclusions.

>>32316367
Post it again.
>>
>>32316367
Or I can just go into the archive and dig up the thread where you stopped posting.

That might save you some time.
>>
>>32316379
http://fissilematerials.org/countries/china.html

>AUGUST 5, 2016

>The total amount of weapon-grade HEU in China's stockpile is estimated to be 18 ± 4 tonnes.

>China is a nuclear weapon state member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Its nuclear arsenal is estimated to include 240 nuclear weapons, of which about 180 are believed to be operationally deployed. China's stockpile of fissile materials is estimated to include 18 ± 4 tonnes of HEU and 1.8 ± 0.5 tonnes of weapon-grade plutonium.
>>
>>32316367
Here it is.

This poster pointed out that you can't make up your mind about whether the information exists or not.

>>32316400
That doesn't say anything about the resumption of production.
>>
>>32316380
>>32316408
Forgot the link.
https://desuarchive.org/k/thread/32255175/#q32255553
>>
>>32316400
There is no question that they have a stockpile of material.

I never said they did not.

I said that they stopped manufacturing weapons grade material some time ago. You are claiming that they have resumed and I am waiting for you to post something to that effect.
>>
>>32316379
>I am following along, and don't entirely agree with your position, but I see the merit in your approach.
>No simulation can give 100% accurate conclusions.
I'm certainly on the more cautious side when employing simulation-based data to make real world decisions, I admit that. Early in my career I got bit in the ass hard by a couple of overconfident assessments of simulated projections.

Though I have to ask, doing what you do, have you ever made a 100% confidence statement based on simulation of something as complex as a conventional engagement or even a several-step nuclear exchange? One in which you know for a fact you do not possess complete platform capability data or tactical/strategic/doctrinal decision tree data?

I would find such a thing to be extraordinary and worth of very, very close examination.
>>
>>32316408
>>32316414
My sources beat yours.

1980s data begone.

China has enough fissile material to conduct the rapid buildup of at least 500 more warheads.
>>
>>32316433
>100% confidence statement based on simulation of something as complex as a conventional engagement or even a several-step nuclear exchange?
Never.
Too many variables.
You have to say IF this happened, and IF that happens and IF this works as designed.

>>32316435
>China has enough fissile material to conduct the rapid buildup of at least 500 more warheads.
Thats not what you said.
>>
>>32316428
>Russia previously has built centrifuge enrichment plants in China with a total capacity of 1.5 million SWU, which are Chinese operated.

http://fissilematerials.org/blog/

If they stoüüed, why would they build new ones?
>>
>>32316454
Those are all for their civilian nuclear power program.
>>
>>32316442
>Never.
>Too many variables.
>You have to say IF this happened, and IF that happens and IF this works as designed.
Exactly. You have a range of possible outcomes, to which the scrupulous will try to attach confidence values, and which the wise will use less as conclusions and more as study for how one gets either from A to X or A to Y or A to Z, rather than using it to say X will happen.

Perhaps I didn't communicate my position very well above.
>>
>>32316454
>“U.S. leadership could spur China and Russia to take positive actions and improve the prospects for further disarmament. Russia’s decision to develop a new missile in violation of its treaty commitments and Moscow’s rebuff of attempts by the United States to negotiate further nuclear reductions is very troublesome, as is the expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal and Beijing’s steps toward increasing the alert levels of its forces,” Philipp added.

https://www.armscontrol.org/reports/2016-Report-Card-Nuclear-Disarmament-Nonproliferation-Efforts
>>
>anon tries to win an argument about CMANO by implying he's Oppen/appeal to authority
>real Oppen shows up, agrees with the other guy

top fucking kek. today, you delivered /k/
>>
Good thread.

Beefbowls were earned.

Murricans were shamed.

See you till 20th January!
>>
>>32316498
someone screen cap all that for the next time someone waves CMANO as proof of some bullshit on /k/
>>
>>32316435
>China has enough fissile material to conduct the rapid buildup of at least 500 more warheads.
Also, lets examine this.
None of the existing Chinese warheads are HEU alone. all use some amount of Pu.
CHIC-21 used about 5-6 kg of Pu.

The current stockpile of Pu in China is 1.9 tons.
HEU is about 19 tons.

Thats enough for about 380 to 400 new warheads.

Your claim was that China was instituting a rush top parity with the US.

600 total warheads is not parity with the US.
>>
>>32316517
>See you till 20th January!

What will happen
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