So right now I am reading Barry Posen's restraint (I recommend

Germany doesn't belong in the same sentence as France and the UK.

Their military is a joke.

>>32205010
Merkel is right, the German military is a shadow of its former self. France and the UK are the two large military powers in Western Europe.

The issue in the shift of grand strategy to strategic isolation that the author recommends is that it would cripple US hegemony and consequently our influence and economic power along with it.

We willingly shoulder the burdens of hegemony in order to reap the benefits: mainly economic stability, military primacy, and being able to define and create international systems with our considerable political capital.

While I wouldn't advocate a hyper active military, I also wouldn't recommend pulling back, as it would leave a power vacuum that begs to be filled by aspiring regional hegemons, which further destabilizes the international system.

>>32205105
but who would fill the Hegemon role in Europe? All France, the UK, and Germany are all incapable of doing so. So far I agree that we should withdraw from our European commitments as they seem capable of handling themselves, being nuclear states. I highly disagree with him on Japan however, breaking ties with them indisputably hurts our power, as the for front of future combat will be naval and in the pacific.

>>32205174
In Europe, it would likely be France, seeing as the UK is mostly worried about itself now and France and Germany are desperately trying to hold the EU together, France being the regions largest military power and Germany being the largest economic power.

Historically speaking, Germany and Russia have competed for regional hegemony over Europe, and have served as foils to each other's dominance. The military weakening of Germany has upset that precedent, so it's hard to say, but a united Europe could likely hold off Russia, if the conflict were non nuclear.

It should also be taken into consideration that the Russian economy is in shambles right now and their military adventurism is serving to distract the population from the economic woes while simultaneously stirring up nationalist fervor.

>>32205276
I see, I must say though given the sizes of their airforces, they would need to up their attack aircraft numbers, if Russia were to be able to mobilize even half of their current capable armor effectively, these countries would be severely outgunned on the ground with not enough strike craft to keep them off. (although I haven't calculated for Poland yet.)

>>32205174
To make a long story short, if the US doesn't do it, it doesn't get done.

If it doesn't get done, everyone gets fucked.

>>32205105
Listen to this man, for he speaks wisdom.

>>32205413
What a bunch of fucks, if they'd all spend just a bit more on defense (especially Germany) we wouldn't have to cover their asses, I mean shit, Poland meets quota, why can't they?

>>32205371
Poland has shit all for an air force. Land wise, they're pretty good. They have almost as many Leopard 2s as Germany, although it must be stated that many are in need of modernization (which will occur in the next few years). Poland is somewhat hampered in the conventional warfare department due to a majority of their IFVs being local variants of BMP-1s, which are sorely outdated by this point. However, I would say they have enough strength that they could probably blunt a Russian offensive for long enough for reinforcements to arrive from Germany. That is, if those reinforcements were ready to move. Poland cannot possibly win the war, but they can probably drag it out.

>>32205463
If other NATO members moved aircraft to Poland, as well as some ground units, they might be able to stop shit while its still there.

>>32205427
Fucking GREECE meets the quota. Every member nation of NATO should be able to easily meet the 2% requirement.

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>>32205105

>>32205489
That's literally what I just said.

>>32205427
The problem is, they are fucks.

They will always continue to be fucks.

And it's cheaper to subsidize their bullshit than to let them self destruct, because make no mistake, if left to their own devices, Europeans will destroy themselves.

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>>32205517
>Europeans will destroy themselves.
I'd like to see that happen, I really would. Hell, maybe I'll get to fight in WWIII?

>>32205503
If I am correct, you are speaking in a reactionary sense, I'm saying they should have established bases in Poland, as we do right now in Germany.

>>32205584
It's a bit more complex than that. Perhaps some more forces should be put in Poland itself. At the very least, more troops need to be ready in Germany, both German and American. Point being, with existing forces Russia would probably be delayed enough fo reinforcements to arrive.

>>32205276
Isnt the EU trying to form a military?

The thing is we have to try to support good ideas.

The UN is a good idea, NATO is useless without the threat of global war, Israel should be able to support itself militarily by now, etc.

We should do things that make the world more secure.

However we shouldn't be taken advantage of financially in this way.

We are not NATOs slave, not Israels colony, we aren't the only nation in the UN.

There is nothing wrong with using our excess to benefit humanity but we should encourage the world to do the same as well, and we should foster independence among our allies.

>>32205174
In this the new European powers will center on the current major players

>UK
>France
>Germany
And the new kid in town
>Poland

>>32205824
THE GLORY OF THE POLISH LITHUANIAN COMMONWEALTH SOON

>>32205562
Europe is like Africa in terms of regionalism.

Except unlike Africa, people and cities actually get razed and shit gets scary real fast in wartime. Europe burned itself to the ground many times and still improved.

>>32205844
an unfucked and uncucked Europe would fuck over Russia hard in terms of geopolitics. Especially when several European nations remember all the cultural genocide the Russians did to them.

>>32205105
second post and we can call /thread

>>32205010
>he claims any two of Germany, France, and the UK could handle Russia in conventional war easy

and this is complete bs and dont forget well you know fuck ton of nukes that ruskies got
and bs and of two nations above just folds, considering that russsians would be stirring bs far from their comfort zone with limited ability to project power

well what i am saying usa fucking off from global stages i am giving days till Baltic states will be in rusian control again

>>32205010

I think the USA could probably get by with a much smaller military. But the problem is that once you start making big cuts, it opens the door for even bigger cuts. Look what happened to the Swedish military after the cold war ended. Every time the government wanted money for something, the first place they get it was by raiding the military budget. And so they went from having one of the strongest militaries in the world to a pathetic carcass of their former selves, with a Navy consisting of a tiny number of corvettes.

>>32205490
It's accounting lies.

They include health care costs for veterans or something in that figure

>>32205276
Hooray for fracking!

Let's see how long this new OPEC deal lasts in the face of ongoing technological improvements in fracking that keep dropping costs.

>>32205010
Doesn't Germany use plastic string instead of barbed wire in training?

>>32205750
Not happening without any political unification first, Greece or Netherlands are not going to send their soldiers to die defending Riga or Warsaw, that's for sure.

If war breaks out everyone will be for themselves, Moscow only need to apply the political plan they had since the soviet union, just break some peace treaties with one of the members, break the "europe front" on pieces and crush one by one.

But that's not happening on 20 years or until russia can build an army that can project force en masse without fucking up hard so who knows what's the scenario then.