China vs Japan

Why though?

At this point, it's better if Asia stick together against the US.

After all, with all the bantz and shit, we are still asians, we are still in this together against white boi, niggers and jews and arabs.

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>>31626040
It came up after i argued that all the good shit Japan gets in Shadowrun would probs be China's and that Japan couldn't really wipe out Mainland China

>>31626013
If there are no outsider forces, China wins.
Like you said they could simply blockade them, the naval battles will decide the fate of Japan and for the most part China has them completely outgunned.
Even if the PLAN gets absolutely destroyed, the JSDF has no way of landing a large enough force in China do actually do anything leading to stalemate.
Also
>Bioweapons
Are you serious?

>>31626013
This is the stupidest shit I've ever read but it really boils down to the fact that Japan has no bioweapons program because it is constitutionally forbidden from embarking on one

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>>31626089
Bio weapons were not my idea. It was the other guy.

He's crazy about chemical weapons and bioweapnns and shit, and that seems to be the only way to have Japan even a glimmer of hope against China.

>>31626013
>bioweapons
Does your court-appointed guardian know you're posting on the internets?

>>31626157
See. >>31626152

>>31626152
>He's crazy about chemical weapons and bioweapnns and shit

Oh gee, being told you can't have something really stopped Germany from procuring submarines and weapons prior to WW2

>>31626176
You have to be 18 to post here.

>>31626089
Bro. its a well known fact japan has Guyvers.

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>>31626089
This
>post yfw the Yamato 2.0 is BTFO by ships Made in China

>>31626180
>he thinks modern Japan doesn't care about maintaining its international image

>>31626089
China couldn't blockade East of Japan.

JMSDF and land based aviation are both potent threats, and could probably stave off anything the Chinese could do anyways.

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>implying Chinese tech is good enough to beat Japanese (American surplus) DF Navy
Calm down there ling ling get a good aircraft carrier first

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His responss
>the basis of my arguement is around conditions changing to allow for development of bioweapons and the military, most of i tdoe on the sly

I think if this occurred, something has gone very wrong in world diplomacy and China would also get a nice boost from the change.

>>31626348
In other words, he's not even talking about the real world.

>>31626425
Probably, which is why we're not arguing anymore

>>31626152
>>31626348
If bioweapons are free reign, whats stopping China from using them to the same effectiveness? And at such a point in relations China could just lob nuclear weapons at Japan until it's flat.

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>>31626013

>Bioweapons

Unit 731 got reactivated? Or was it never disbanded in the first place?

>>31626574
Japan has more fissile material.

ABM shield.

Better rocketry.

Then we start factoring allies (China has none), and it doesn't look good for China. Russia will probably just take the opportunity to annex Northern China to give them a Warm-Water port. Turkey will try to free Uighyrs, India will free Tibet, Vietnam will take clay from South. AESAN will destroy SCS island chains. We are not even factoring US which has numerous contingencies involving total destruction of China. US can easily support Russian annexation of China so they can launch a joint nuclear Strike. China meanwhile, has no options but to play babby supapowah while they get their shit kicked-in from all sides, then surrender. No different than 100 years ago.

>>31626662
OP's scenario says no allies.

>>31626683
Either way Japan has more fissile material they can easily weaponize, ABM shield, and Better Rocketry.

China's population density is no better than Japan's so they will get wrecked in a Nuclear War.

Japan has both superior defense and superior offense in a Nuclear War. They would '''win''', if that term can be applied to Brinkmanship.

>>31626013
There would be no war, because US + nuclear weapons on both sides.

That aside, if it was just China vs. Japan it would most likely reduce to a stalemate, with neither side being able to occupy the territory of the other (both lack the capability for those sorts of operations).

Also, both sides are largely dependent on foreign energy imports (Japan almost entirely), and with their navies being generally on par, they are both extremely vulnerable to blockade.

However, given China's seemingly inexorable rise, the tables are beginning to turn in it's favour. That this topic gets so much discussion these days is rather indicative of that fact, 15 or 20 years ago the scenario wasn't even worth considering.

>>31626601
noice

>>31626904
Japan was predicted to take over the world in the 1980s.

>>31626953
There are limits to how productive you can be per capita.

At their population level they certainly schooled America and shocked them into implementing radical changes into their economy to stay competitive.

>>31626953
You're right, Brazil was tipped for super power status during the 1970s, and the Philippines was expected to be the first Asian country to democratize and become developed.

However, there's no guarantee either way, but it seems extremely unlikely that China is going to suffer any catastrophic reversal of fortune (and if it did, much of the world wouldn't be in too great a shape as well).

I'm sure that the European powers of the 19th century didn't expect Japan to become what it was at the beginning of the 20th C.

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>>31627012
>but it seems extremely unlikely that China is going to suffer any catastrophic reversal of fortune (and if it did, much of the world wouldn't be in too great a shape as well)

China is going to suffer the Worst Demographic Crisis in history. Either they import several hundred million Niggers into the country to make up for it, or they end up like Japan on a prolonged recession.

The country is going to be filled with old people on benefits and dependent on their Children. Not exactly a bright future.

>>31627061
An aging population is a crisis that most developed/developing countries will have to wrestle with.

>The country is going to be filled with old people on benefits and dependent on their Children
Currently this is not the case, and there is generally little expectation of government support in China, hence that vast amount of personal savings Chinese people tend to accumulate.

If such a population crisis would be the cause of a seismic implosion, then it'll take Japan and W. Europe with it.

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On an unrelated not, how does /k/ think China will stand in 10, 15 years time, economically, socially, and militarily?

>>31627166
The US is keeping itself afloat demographically with Hispanics however, and it's likely Europe will do the same with the way the Middle East is going to shit.

China doesn't really have many of the same options.

>>31627251
Could it import Filipinos or Africans? If it's influence is powerful enogh in africa, it might be able to filter out its best and brightest.

>>31627166
>An aging population is a crisis that most developed/developing countries will have to wrestle with.

Other countries don't have to deal with the fallout of a 'One-Child' policy. India has much more solid demographics for the rest of the century, higher growth rates, and better investor sentiment. Things can change, but by the time China enters 2025 and is seen as an unstoppable threat, they will start the demographics crunch while India chugs along.

China is going to be top dog someday, but for how long they will keep it is the real question. US maintained dominance for nearly a century. I give China 2 decades.

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>>31626013
>>bu india

"bu india" what?

>the japs bioweapons run their course, eliminating 85% of Han chinese and forcing china to try to cure the illnesses

Is this the plot from some Deus Ex campaign mod or something? And no, with over three quarters of their population dead China won't be forced to come up with a cure, the place will implode completely. They would not in any way, shape or form be in a condition to conduct serious and rapid medical research. But it isn't like that'll matter, because the Japanese stockpile of biological weapons is even smaller than my personal stockpile of triple stage thermonuclear weapons.

If your friend is fifteen, then he's got a pretty bad grasp of reality for his age. If he's an adult, then...
>>31626152
>He's crazy
Period.

But let's be honest, when someone's just asking for a friend, or have this debate with a friend... yeah, there is no friend. So grow up, beat the stupid out of your head, and get in touch with a fucking psychiatrist already.

>>31627274
Africa, Philippines, India, any of the oppressed ethnic groups trying to get their asses out of South East Asia (you know, the ones the ozzies like to put in concentration camps run by pedophiles), Jordan might have a few spares Syrians sitting around... There's no shortage of people globally, and with Japan being their designated scapegoat for everythign wrong ever it's not like they'll need the scary foreigners card to play either like Poland or Hungary.

>>31626718
China has nukes.

Japan does not.

Are you fucking retarded?

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>>31627061
>China is going to suffer the Worst Demographic Crisis in history.

Completely wrong.

China's fertility was over 2 until 1992, and has been 1.65 since then.

Japan's has been below 2 since 1972 and around 1.4 since 1990.

>>31627295
1. China's population will expand until at least 2035.
2. They already got rid of the 1 child policy. If they remove all the restrictions in a few years, the Chinese will pump out more babies again.
They actually are up 8% in births this year.
3. Chinese are poorer and less educated. Generally poor uneducated people have more kids.
4. China is chronically underestimating the number of their people. The 2010 census has been shown to be 60 million short. China discovered" 17 million people in December 2015.
5. Demographics don't matter nearly as much as they used to. For example, Poland has grown 850% while its population is down 20% since 1990.

>>31627233
Socially it will become a lot more like s-korea and japan, this change can already be seen in the bigger cities in china. The differance between countryside and the cities will become more narrow (though it is now massive, they are worlds apart more or less) though still significant.

>>31627996
I'd argue it'll still be quite different though

>>31626662
Let me put it this way. The only navy the PLAN can't handle in the pacific is the USN

>>31626276
>He thinks they do care about maintaining their international image when the future of their nation depends on not being ruled over by the Chinese

>>31628577

>He thinks they can just randomly drop bioweapons without tarnishing their international image and not expect a nuclear attack.

>>31628660
>He thinks China can launch nuclear attacks on Japan without retaliation from the US

>>31627808
>>31628720
Winner:
US | No US
-----------------------------------------------------
Nukes | Nobody | China
-----------------------------------------------------
No Nukes| Japan | Japan

>>31628776
>I'm a fucking idiot: the post

Nice damage control loser but your argument is still BTFO

>>31628809
I wasn't even in the initial argument. But be honest, if Japan is going up against China, no nukes involved, you think they are going to let China win?

>>31628839
Japan will never have to go 1v1 against China you dumb fucking hick

>>31628865
this

Nobody will ever go 1v1 against China unless some Taiping level shit is going down

>>31628089
Quite different yes but it's moving into a more similiar direction. Of course they will be different but the difference will be less than it is now.

>>31626040
Vietnam here. fuck off China. No one likes you.

>>31630392
Your government?

>>31630392
who does vietnam hate more? the chinese, the french or the japanese? (i know yall like the americans for some weird reason)

>>31626040

>Asia stick together against the US.
>Implying we even like each other enough to do that

In order for japan to win the need to redo a lot lf their self imposed restraint. Atm their goal is to force a stalemate long enough to allow america and it's allies to bring themselves to bear and murder whomever attacks japan.

If war were to break out tomorrow japan would be forced into a costly defensive war. With neither the chinise or the japanese able to establish and hold a beachhead on the others bome turf. It would be a naval skirmish through and through. The japs will soon have the advantage of F-35b which could be based off of their helicopter carriers in a pinch. Evening out the naval odds a bit.

While the chicoms do have a offensive naval advantage. They don't have the force projection needed to land

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>>31632657
The US is of course a deciding factor. Provided the US doesn't show up, China probably won't even bother with a land invasion, instead it will probobly be some kind of seige/naval war. Then either China will get tired and go home or the Japs will run out of food and collapse as a society.
Either way, it will be the biggest war with the largest players since the Korean War, methinks

>>31633007
Right, I agree that the US would be a deciding factor. However the Op stated that this is a 1v1 scenario. That being said. Neither power currently has the force projection to land and hold a foothold on either nation. China has a much better chance at this offensively. However Japan has massive Defensive edge. Japanese Land based air assets can match or defeat any of the contemporary Chinese naval air assets. They Japanese Navy (maritime Defense force) is, as the name implies, heavily defensive with a focus on ASW. The carrier groups won't stray far from japanese waters and will tend to stay well within range of Land based air-assets. Their goal imo, would be to keep east facing shipping lanes open so that they can continue receiving supplies and food from the western world.

The only scenario I can see Japan Coming out entirely on top is if they, after rewriting their constitution to allow it, rebuilt their offensive forces. At the same time they build up their own nuclear forces and adopted a "no first use" policy. Japan can easily acquire tp notch western gear from America and her allies, IN fact The US would love to supply a friendly, large Army in that region. In ten to 15 years the japs will have an force to match that of current day china, with much better force projection capabilities. China would obviously have the sheer numbers advantage, especially if their naval plan pans out. Japan however would hold the tech advantage, and a nuclear deterrent of it's own.

>>31633822
Odds are, Japan will become the US's guardian of the East, as I'm betting in 15 years, most if not all of the US's "allies" will be in China's lap in one way or another. Given how Duterte managed to turn the Philippines from a major ally to a Chinese friend in a ridiclously short amount of time, im willing to bet many and most of the US friends in the region will get blinded by Chinese money. After all it is in China's best interest to play nice with it's neighbors, as Best Korea isn't exactly a stellar ally.
Japan already wants to increase military spending. While I can't see nukes in their future, I can definitely see the US giving China the thumbs up in terms of military spending, in order to have a way of containing the Big Red Dragon that is the PRC.
But hey, what do I know?

>>31633929
From what I can tell many native flips are Not happy with Du30s policy regarding the SCS and relations with China in general. After all, this came about after Criticism of duterte and his policy, not the Philippines or it's people. Despite what we see, It's fair to say that people in the Philippines aren't for this shift in policy and prefer American ties. Nothing is going to last and the next admin will more than likely begin to reneg on any deals that dutuerte is promising, if he even goes through with them.

Japan is slowly but surely reversing It's self imposed restrictions. Ironically, Getting US service members off of Japanese home islands is probably what will be the stated reason, despite strengthening of ties to the West in a more militaristic and economic sense. Having a militarized japan to contend with china is probably the way to go, instead of relying on a bunch of small backward SEA countries, that are shiftier than a bear in a bowtie.

Hopefully We see japan purchasing a few Nimitz class, or building their own nuclear catobar carriers in 20/30 years (or even Emals if it's worth it for them), rebuilding it's navy and air force all while modernizing it's ground forces and becoming a nuclear player to balance China in the region.

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>>31634124
I like the competition. I forces innovation from the USA and nothing moves progress faster than guy #2 catching up to #1. The differance between this and the Old Cold War, is that it can't really be an us v them in our globalized world. For better or worse, the US and China are going to be in bed for a while, and we citizens are in for fun ride.
Also, Africa will be interesting as increased Chinese interest in the area might make it as volatile as the ME, and African proxy wars mybe the future for much of the Continent.

>>31626040
Yeah, you all should form an alliance to keep the US out. You could call it a co-prosperity sphere or something.

>>31634214
Call me what you want, but I think that a true globalized, one world gov't is humanities future. All this jockeying for position and allies is a means to that end. Its interesting to watch how these events unfold.

All that being said, the SEA theatre right now is starting to look like a new cold war.

African continent will be the hot bed of Chinese activities. clashing with the African nations trying to fix their own mess.

>>31626013
>Japanese usage of bioweapons

good info

China will(want to) use that in the battle field

>bunkers
>2016

that shit stopped mattering around 1914. artillery (and now, air superiority) is a hell of a drug

>>31626040

Clearly you aren't actually Asian, or you'd be declaring your sub-race's superiority to all other Asian nations.

Seriously, Asians are the most consistently racist people I've ever met.

>>31626040
>Implying Asians aren't bigger White supremacists than White people
Look at every Korean store owner here.

>>31634671
>Look at every Korean store owner here

Falling Down: "Korean Convenience Store"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2YRMixW9u8

>>31626040

Japan has less in common with China than it does with the US at this point. Same with the Philippines and Worse Korea. Chinky outright betrayed Vietnam after it succeeded in doing the impossible and held of America and Australia. And any attempt at trying to buddy up with Chong ends in surprise anschluss to serve Chairman Xin-Lao. No thanks.

t. Pinnoy

>>31626040
>>31626040
be China
threaten to small neighbour nations with military actions and possibility of using nukes
says Let's Asia stick together against the US.

>>31627920
>Poland is 20% down in population since '90s
Fuck no mate, indeed it has less people but not nearly 20% which would be like 8mln ppl gone.

>>31634884
poor korean guy
always getting beat down by the white man

>>31634928
It's bullshit.

Their language use fucking chinese and confucian thoughts are still prevalent.

They are not americanized.

>>31633929
>Japan already wants to increase military spending.
Let them (like they aren't doing so already). It won't even matter in the future because China's spending will dwarf Japan's by so much and will have a much more complete set of weapons that can be acquired domestically (examples include not need to buy systems from the US just to build an aegis destroyer, loads of short range ballistic missiles/cruise missiles, an actual aircraft carrier program (Japan won't be getting them any time soon) and nuclear submarines).

>>31627233
That graph is so fucked up.
>plutonium.
>used to fuel nuclear reactors.

>>31635370
>They are not americanized.
They sure as shit aint sinicized either, Zhang.

>>31637303
the ending makes up for it though

I was thinking bioweapons was stupid too until I remembered Aum Shinrikyo happened in the 90's. It can't be that difficult to acquire them. It's strategically useless though, unless you just enjoy decimating entire city populations for sport. The Japanese have never done that right?

>>31637379

They do literally write their names in Chink tho.

They're pretty sinic. But at the same time they're sino contrarian. They're just another version of the typical Confucian Asian culture with local flavors and a xenophobic superiority complex which is common with all Confucian cultures.

Hence the late 19th century colonialism and WWII war crime phase

>>31634928
Incorrect.
Japan is not Americanized.

I'd honestly argue China is more Americanized than Japan (Chinese speak english better on average).

>>31626059
what is this from?

>>31626013
They've done it twice before desu.

Holy shit my threads still up.