China will crash any day now!

Well?

>>76673282
You're too impatient give it a few more years. Have you seen their debt?

>>76674068
Less than yours

>>76674068
Doesn't the UK have 400% of GDP in debt?

When will they collapse?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

>>76674295
Rank Country/Region External debt
US dollars Date Per capita
US dollars % of GDP
1 United States 18,152,809,942,589 31 December 2016[1] 56,000 97
2 United Kingdom 7,554,815,500,000 31 December 2016[2] 119,000 314
3 France 5,104,831,200,000 31 December 2016[3] 75,800 210
4 Germany 5,002,093,100,000 31 December 2016[4] 61,700 148
5 Netherlands 3,945,974,400,000 31 December 2016[5] 234,000 525
6 Luxembourg 3,932,580,200,000 31 December 2016[6] 6,733,000 6,731
7 Japan 3,645,534,000,000 31 December 2016[7] 26,400 74
8 Italy 2,265,430,500,000 31 December 2016[8] 37,900 126
9 Ireland 2,235,142,300,000 31 December 2016[9] 471,000 780
10 Spain 2,032,000,000,000 31 December 2016[10] 44,100 167
11 Canada 1,754,375,600,000 31 December 2016[11] 46,800 116
12 Switzerland 1,719,445,000,000 31 December 2016[12] 204,000 265
13 Australia 1,603,542,800,000 31 December 2016[13] 59,000 126
14 China 1,420,657,200,000

>>76674068
>>76674111

Commie chink government has a On switch. But they are still in trouble. Mainly because of the On switch.

USA doesn't have a commie government On switch but they are still not in trouble.

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>>76674111
>Less than yours
Except the US is good for the money with $5-7 Trillion being received in taxes.

China's political party keeps its records secret hence why only 3rd parties report their success.

>>76674313
AKA

China has very little debt owed to foreigners. That means that China (or any nation) can print yuan (remember Quantitative Easing) to repay any debt.

That's why SOVEREIGN debt is different from foreign debt.

The thing with China is that they're still just copying the blueprint towards modernization that the western world has already laid out. Japan and SK also experienced similarly fast paces towards 1st world status after WW2, but then hit a wall as soon as they reached the point where they cant just copy the west anymore.

The same thing will eventually happen to China except worse because they also have some glaring demographic problems like having billions of people.

>>76673282

This is a repeat situation from before ww1 and before ww2.

In 1918 - The British and German GDP was the same
In 1938 - The German GDP was TWICE that of Britain

WAR WAR WAR WAR WAR
The same will happen when Chinas GDP is TWICE that of the US (or possibly twice that of the combined western world).

Wait and see.

>>76674333
>USA doesn't have a commie government On switch but they are still not in trouble.

What the fuck does that mean?

>>76674349
[Citation needed]
Commies loves stats. Dubious or not

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>>76674382
Japan's situation is both unique and not comparable.

China's GDP per capita is $8000.
Japan 1995 had $35,000 per capita GDP.

South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong are all growing 2-3% while Japan is stagnant.

There's no reason what happened to only one nation 30 years ago should happen to all the rest.

>>76674386
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/06/27/2190601/for-the-love-of-zeus-stop-misusing-thucydides/

>These biased interpretations — and there are many others — reflect the fact that Thucydides wrote his history to refute the conventional wisdom about the war in the aftermath of the Athenian defeat. He was the first revisionist historian, determined to acquit Pericles and his fellow elites for starting and losing the war. To do this, he blamed impersonal historical forces and the ignorant rabble.

>(Ironically, Thucydides’s account, which doesn’t explicitly describe this mainstream narrative, is the one that survived over the past 2400 years, which means that the arguments he was rebutting have only become clear relatively recently thanks to the work of imaginative modern scholars.)

>Studying history is valuable. Reading Thucydides is valuable. But people who think they’ve gained ancient wisdom after reading only the most popular bits of Thucydides’s history of the Peloponnesian War should be approached with extreme scepticism.

>>76674386
USA GDP was the same as the UK in 1850 and was double the UK in 1880.
Then triple in 1910.
And quadruple in 1940.

WAR WAR WAR... ?

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Any day now!

>>76674400
>[Citation needed]
There is no citation.

Chinese government hasn't released what their tax intake in since 1997. Of course they announce when taxes are being raised or lower, but again reported by third parties.

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>stop devaluing the yuan!

>>76674453
Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore are all incredibly open and westernized microstates while South Korea still hasn't even caught up Japan yet.

China is even more closed off to the west than Japan became shortly after reaching their peak, and has magnitudes worse of a population problem.

>>76674753
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/government-revenues

http://english.gov.cn/archive/statistics/2017/01/23/content_281475549572196.htm

>>76674386
Except everyone has nukes this time and globalisation means all economies are intertwined so they can't do shit.

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>>76674800
>third parties
Show me the Chinese government website that enlists their entire government budget, tax intake and tax laws.

>>76674829
no one is going to use a nuke if china decides to take over taiwan tho

>>76673282
People are saying that China's economy will crash since always and it never happens

>>76674068
>You're too impatient give it a few more years. Have you seen their debt?
Kek, you are just like commies in my country who shit on USA for some reason.

>>76674798
1. South Korea and Japan have a very similar GDP per capita this year.
2. Japan has had sub-replacement fertility since 1973. China has only since 1994.
3. Japan's fertility rate has been 1.4 average since 1980. China's has been 1.6 average since 1994.
4. China's population will expand until at least 2040. Japan's has shrunk every year since 2010.

In 30 years China will be very similar to where Japan was in 2010. Not "worse".

>>76674313
>Luxembourg

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>>76674853
>cn.gov
>state council of china
>xinhua
>4.5% growth in government revenue (taxes)

>>76674453
China's situation is in fact far more similar to Japan than any of those other countries.

Japan was literally the "China" of the 80s and quickly becoming an economic powerhouse on the world stage that everyone was a bit scared of, but then stagnated in the mid 90s.

>>76674947
The problem with "Total Debt" calculations is that they ignore the fact this debt is backed up by assets.

Every dollar of debt for one party is a dollar of an asset for the other party.

Russia and Nigeria have 0 debt. Why? Because only shitholes with shitty finances can't issue debt.

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>>76674975
>China’s fiscal revenue grew 4.5 percent year on year in 2016, to 15.96 trillion yuan (around $2.33 trillion), the Ministry of Finance said on Jan 23.
>http://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com/total_revenue_2016USrn
>over 6 Trillion
Glad China could fit in their moon landing on such a small budget.

>>76674985
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

1. China is Japan 1975 at best.
2. Half of Chinese are still rural peasants. 95% of Japanese in 1995 were urban.
3. Most of China is a shithole. Most of Japan in 1995 was not. That means China can develop more. Ever heard of "low-hanging fruits"?

You are comparing Apples and Oranges just because you buy the "what goes up must come down" meme.

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>>76673282
If China is so great, why are you in the US, chink?

Should we be worried about China, lads?

>>76675068
China is much more decentralized than the USA, unironically.

60% of tax revenue goes to the provincial government. Many Chinese businesses and people love the Central government and hate the provinces because of that

https://www.ft.com/content/e198affe-ec3e-11e6-930f-061b01e23655

>>76675164
I am Greek

>>76675194
No. Fear India. China is a weak and powerless place. Like a puppy with a bark

>>76675164
No but really, I am a hafu.

You might know me from other China threads or /sino/.

>>76675194
Not really they don't seem hellbent on fucking other countries like the US do

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>>76675197
>China is much more decentralized than the USA, unironically.
No, its not. Thanks for you interest in Amerika though.

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Is your cunt doing better or worse?

>>76675225
I fear the day when India develops pooclear weapons

>>76674607
USA vs Britain is (was) not the same as Britain vs Germany

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>>76675270
>like the US do
>chile
>yes
hurr durr

XDDD

>>76675292
misleading. It's hard to move up when you are already at the top

>>76675289
No I'm not joking

60-65% of Chinese taxes go to the provinces. That's why China does not have universal central government social security. The provinces handle it.

>>76675333
And neither is Germany UK similar to China USA.

>>76675434
They purposefully left out the top 10-20 GDP per capitas. Not misleading at all.

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>>76675437
>60-65% of Chinese taxes go to the provinces.
Cool!

Is that where all the aborted female fetuses and smog went?

>>76675299
Pukes?

>>76675120
Are you implying that it's a good thing that there is an extreme disconnect in the country between the urban population and the much larger and poorer rural population in China?

You think that China is gonna be able to pull up billions of people from poverty and sustain them? Lmao, that's not an advantage, it's a nuclear bomb waiting to happen. EVERY 1st world country has experienced a population slowdown not because it's a bad thing, but because we live in a resource limited world.

The US is a superpower not because it just has a high population, but because it has the highest population of people with a high standard of living. 2 rich people in a country with 30 poor people is not a strong country in this day and age.

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>>76675489
Kind of

The provincial governments are the ones who put GDP > Everything else

https://www.google.com/amp/s/phys.org/news/2015-07-china-air-pollution-fall-greenpeace.amp
That is changing rapidly though

>GDP per capita less than Mexico

You guys are giving chink economy way too much undeserved respect

>>76675598
Why does every city of mexico look like such a shithole, then?

None of them can even compare with any Chinese Tier 2 city in terms of urban management, planning and services.

>>76675540
There is not an extreme disconnect though.
Rural wages in China have risen faster than Urban wages for a decade now. The median Chinese wage is $800 a month now, average is $1200. That's a lot better than even a decade ago in 2007 when the median was $200.

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>>76675582
>That is changing rapidly though
So glad for googles assistance.

>>76675598
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-06-25/there-s-no-end-in-sight-for-china-s-rise-up-the-gdp-rankings

>Importantly, this rise has translated into tangible benefits. The Chinese live six years longer on average and have full access to electricity, less than two percent of the population live under the global poverty line and the average calorie deficit has been cut by more than half, according to World Bank data going back to 1992.

>Over the next five years, China's per-person economic growth will see it bypassing the likes of Mexico and oil-rich Azerbaijan, putting it just shy of Argentina.

>>76675626
because it has mexicans

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>>76675666
I am always one step ahead of you.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/310433337_Delayed_Registration_and_Identifying_the_Missing_Girls_in_China

>We find that China's male-female ratio is actually within global average of 105:100.

>>76675795
>I am always one step ahead of you.
>Posting more 3rd party rants about 1990
Welcome to 2017. In 2017 Chinas entire economy is dependent on selling Western products (at any means). Its faker than Soviet Union and less transparent.

You've clearly been misinformed, because there isn't much official information available.

http://www.zmescience.com/other/feature-post/china-gender-imbalance-243423/

>>76673282
China doesnt have any way to crash, they build more and produce more thats it.

>>76675635
That's the fucking problem Chang. The path towards a first world economy is a service based economy. Those people in China working in factories aren't gonna eternally see their wages go up. Those jobs came from the west because those countries reached the point where outsourced labor to China became much cheaper than in their own countries. At some point they have to switch to a high level service job because automation is getting better and better.

>>76674349
>Except the US is good for the money with $5-7 Trillion being received in taxes.
Your debt is literally higher than your GDP.

>>76675947
>1990

This was released in 2017 and references 1990, 2000, and 2010 census data you absolute mong.

>>76675947
>muh low quality goods

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/06/21/business/ford-china-export-focus-mexico.html
>HONG KONG — After years of predictions that cars sold in the West would bear the “Made in China” label, the time has finally come.

>Ford Motor’s plans to build its popular Focus compact cars in China, rather than Michigan or Mexico, is a milestone in China’s automotive rise. Chinese auto industry leaders praised the move as long-awaited confirmation that the country’s factories have become as efficient and high-quality as those in the United States and Europe.

>>76675626
>Why does every city of mexico look like such a shithole, then?
what? except financial center of largest cities, which have recent skyscrapers, all china is a truly shithole

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>>76676021
>

China continues to grab more market share even as wages have risen 40,000% since 1990.

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>>76676037
>Your debt is literally higher than your GDP.
Debts aren't paid by GDP, are you even old enough to post?

>>76676041
>This was released in 2017
Ok, you're wrong. It doesn't matter what year you're talking about. Thats why you're jumping throughout history.

Anyone who isn't a complete troll/idiot knows what happened.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/28/china-population-crisis-new-two-child-policy-fails-to-yield-major-gains.html
>FAILS

>>76676091
>>76675388
>Ford
>Literally American company
Car companies don't care if China infringes their patents, cars are 100+ year old tech.

>>76676146
>samefagging this hard
Have you read the rules?

>>76676118
Their largest cities have 400 million people in them.

Matter of fact, some of the largest are worse than smaller cities.

>>76676146
Are you trying to sell this as a good thing? If labor is too expensive all the manufacturing jobs will leave to a cheaper country. China - Manufacturing = collapse

>>76676017
They will eventually have so much production that they will be richer than western countries do ling as they do not adopt western economic system, if they adopt inferior western system they will crash.

>>76676021
They're already switching from an industrial to a service economy. There are many many articles about it.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/sarahsu/2017/02/21/china-takes-another-step-towards-a-service-economy/amp/

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>>76676174
>you're wrong

That's not an argument

>two child policy
How is this at all relevant?

>samefagging
Kill yourself nigger. Pic related

>>76676179
Dude, you are hilariously stupid.

I'm done arguing with you anymore.

ECON 101
Wages = productivity
China wages are up because productivity is up. That means they produce just as much profit as before.

Hence, market share rising with wages>>76676146

@76676254
>How is this at all relevant?
>http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/28/china-population-crisis-new-two-child-policy-fails-to-yield-major-gains.html
>being this stupid
Wow i forgot it was Friday night.

>>76676037
The US can afford to rack up extreme debt because they have more leverage than any other country in the world. Their currency is the world currency, they have the largest military, and it houses the headquarters of a plurality multinational corporations in the world. Everyone trusts them to stay afloat because not trusting them is basically like saying you don't trust the global economy.

China's economy collapsing would hurt the entire world for a while, but their cheap manufacturing could eventually replaced with other countries if need be.

If the US economy collapsed, everything everywhere in every part of the world goes to shit for who knows how long. They're the largest consumer, the leader in tech, and basically the world police. It would cause mass chaos and probably lead to a world war to fill the power vacuum.

>>76676189
>China builds more factories
>China produces more
>China buikds more roads
>builds more stores
>builds more farms
>builds more houses
Wheres the possible "collapse" so long ad they dont make themselves subservient to international finance they can expand and expand and be #1 in world as they used to be.

>>76676321
>discussing male female ratio
>birth rates is somehow relevant

Total births has nothing to do with the sex ratio.

>>76676432
USA collapses, this somehow affects icelands factories, workers, wages, services, schools and peoppe building roads.

>>76676432
China imports almost as much as the USA.
If we lost China, we'd lose 20% of the world economy.

You are seriously retarded.

>>76676174
>hurr china's debt is too large
>say it's literally lower than the US's in relation to their GDP
>but that's not relevant are you underage
????? How do you think the interest gets payed, with magic?

>>76676432
Now this guy has a bloody point., but I still think you're underestimating China's role worldwide, it's the second largest GDP in the world and the main trading partner of many countries in the world too, a Chinese economical collapse would have great impacts on the world.

ITT: chinks with their heads in the sand. Central planned economy does not work, it's been proven time and time again.

>>76676558
Only one with their head in the sand is you Pablo. Clearly central planning is working quite well considering it brought them from nothing to the worlds second largest economy.

>>76676195
>>76676300
You are so fucking thick. China has a GDP per capita of 7000. Japan has a GDP per capita of 32,000. The US has a GDP per capita of 55,000.

The country is still nowhere fucking near the point where they'll start experiencing inevitable problems with their growth. The country is still entirely fueled by manufacturing which has long since left developed countries like the US and Japan. Reach even half of the GDP per capita that Japan has and we'll see how if it the economy still grows by an insane rate every year.

>>76676558
China's economy is only centrally planned in the broadest sense, with macro-economic plans being made in the government.

They arent Soviet-styled in which the Politburo decides on how many shoes they will make in the next five years.

China's system is called "Asian Developmental State Model" - as pioneered by Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan etc.

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>thread full of armchair economists who are hoping that their random clueless guess as to how the future will unfold happens to be the right one

>>76676805
?

You are rambling all over the place

>>76676938
I posted sources here>>76673282
>>76674295
>>76674453
>>76674544
>>76674670
>>76674701
>>76674763
>>76674800
>>76674975
>>76675197
>>76675292
>>76675519
>>76675582
>>76675696
>>76675795
>>76676091
>>76676146
to here

>>76673282
Too bad it's not Japan.

I want to see those self-centered fucked go down.

>>76676832
This

All East asian economies are part planned

>>76676832
And Japanese economic growth hit a fucking wall in the 90s, just like the USSR did after upgrading from feudalism.

Planned economies work so far as having an already established blueprint of how to evolve your economy. Once you catch up to the rest of the world though, they have never ever fucking worked.

>>76677270
You seem like you have no idea what you're talking about.

>>76677232
None of which allows anybody to make more than a mere educated guess as to how the future will unfold.

>>76677191
It's simple. China will ultimately experience massive economic problems once they get close to a 1st world economy. They just haven't gotten to that point yet.

>>76677313
Explain why I'm wrong.

>>76677246
Japan already got fucked and is now getting LDP'd again

>>76677270
Japan grew about 2.2% on average in the 90's, 1.5% in the 2000's, and 2% since 2012

They actually are similar to the USA growth rates

>>76673282
>Why won't China's economy crash?!?
Because it crashes every day

>>76677351
>development theory and literally 200 years of data don't help us predict the near future (next five years)

Go argue with the World Bank, IMF, Fed, and BoJ. Oh, and every investor on Earth.

>>76678236
>>>/ilbe/

Enjoying moon?

>>76677353
Yeah. Just like America, Europe, South Korea, Canada, and Japan.

>>76678281
ilbe is dead for good

>>76678396
Good

I HATE CHINA

>>76677353
The reason why Japan's economy stagnated is because they took up to much debt and had too many unsuccessful business. Just like what is happening in China now. What's worse for China now is that they still have a large population living in rural areas and automation is quickly taking jobs all around the world. All the rural ones and poor ones in the city are going to have to rely on the educated Chinese to pay for their welfare.

>>76679268
What a rude thing to say

>>76674382
>The thing with China is that they're still just copying the blueprint towards modernization that the western world has already laid out. Japan and SK also experienced similarly fast paces towards 1st world status after WW2, but then hit a wall as soon as they reached the point where they cant just copy the west anymore.
What a dumb post

>what is PPP

>>76674068

ugh, broken clock is right twice a day logic. every fuck says a crash is coming but nobody can accurately predict it.

here, i'll play this game too, X country will have a economic crash in a few years, after a few years, i'll just add in a few more years until eventually there will be one.

>>76674295
gross debt is a meaningless figure. try this instead:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_international_investment_position

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>>76673282
No, U.S. will crash by 2030

Are you ready for china century?

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>>76674068
Any day now.

>>76674313
>muh debt
Nobody cares about made up money

>>76687388
Investors do

>>76682772
This is even more meaningless

NIIP only determines the financial part of the current account.

Gross external debt is far more important for nations. If you don't repay your citizen, bad but not life threatening. If you don't repay foreigners and need their money, oh boy...

>>76679352
>Japan
>too much debt

Japan 1985-1995 was in constant surplus anon. Low debt.

The debt buildup was 1996-2016.

>>76681420
China will have a financial crisis sometime in the next twenty years.

Just like everyone else...

>>76690139
>NIIP only determines the financial part of the current account.
lol no. The current account monitors flows, the NIIPs assets. Ultimately, of course, the assets are built from the flows, but they're very different things, like income and wealth.

Gross external debt is rather meaningless for several reasons. First, it's doesn't show whether overall you're a debtor or a creditor. Yet, this is hugely important and determines ecnomic power. Second, even the size itself doesn't necessarily carry a message or informational value in itself, as it's largely determines by the degree if interconnectedness. A nation that has a lot of external trade will necessarily also have lots of external debt, simply because of a larger turnover.

>>76690441
When your flow is substantially negative, you are at risk anon.

If you are in debt, but have net positive flow, your risk is decreasing.

Both are important. I just think NIIP tends to overweight the finances of certain nations.

The USA has a huge deficit; yet we grow faster than the EU with its current account surplus and net positive NIIP.

>>76690836
are the other BRICs even trying?

>>76691080
Yes

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>China has reached the technological barrier

>>76691029
>When your flow is substantially negative, you are at risk anon.
>If you are in debt, but have net positive flow, your risk is decreasing.
>Both are important.
correct

>I just think NIIP tends to overweight the finances of certain nations.
what do you mean?

>The USA has a huge deficit; yet we grow faster than the EU with its current account surplus and net positive NIIP.
Well, now you're conflating different things sovereign debt is yet another thing with its own implications and only part of sovereing debt is part of external debt. So I'm not sure what this has to do with the prior discussion.

>>76673282
why wont the US crash?

>>76691458
NIIP, the financial account, and current account are all connected.

Don't be obtuse.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21570753-what-happens-when-fed-starts-losing-money-other-side-qe

>>76691577
Didn't we not even a decade ago which led to Ireland imploding and begging the UK for help?

>>76675048
>0 debt
We have smth like 40% of GDP debt. Finland has less for example.

>>76691617
Excuse me but that article is cmpletely unrelated. It talks about central bank assets as a result of QE and the profits the central bank made from that. This is yet another, a fourth thing besides gross external debt, NIIP and sovereign debt. Try to articulate yourself. What are you actually trying to say?

>>76676037
Debt being higher than GDP only matters if you don't have the market's confidence in being able to repay.

Occasionally the US gets negative interest rates yet people still put their money there, because they're more confident the US will pay its debts than other countries will.

Negative interest means investors are literally paying you to take their money, because they're convinced you are more stable than anywhere else and they're risk averse.

Debt isn't a good thing, but it's not exactly a Horseman of the Apocalypse.

>>76691651
Don't remember begging the UK. I remember the EU and UK begging us and threatening us to save their banking system, threatening to set off a bomb in Dublin (in the sense they'd crush our economy) if we didn't.

>>76691996
>revisionist irish history post #4271

>>76691835
I posted the wrong article

In 2016 TE released an article with multiple studies showing that the USA can afford its massive current account deficit (we can spend a lot more than we save) without consequence because of our reserve currency and its seigniorage rights.
Every economist in 2004-2008 was exasperated and confused by the fact the US dollar remained relatively strong even with our 6.5% current accout deficit.

This is an example of how NIIP and Gross External Debt are related, and not necessarily determinative of how an economy will perform.

My point is that they are only two factors among 2000.

>>76691951
Too simple

Central Banks control interest rates just as much as private investors.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-02-03/bank-of-japan-offers-unlimited-bond-buying-to-reassert-control

>>76691951
Which is why the EU interest rates went negative in 2013 when the economy was crashing and debt was rising rapidly?