How accurate is 538 lads? T-tell me that they're full of shit....

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Nate Silver wasn't right about Trump winning the GOP nomination. From July 2015 to May 2016, all Silver did was shriek that Trump was toast.

538 also makes zero sense. How is it Trump had a few bad polling days, and went from like a 8% chance to 20%, and now has an actual good polling day today, and drops to 19%?

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>>66770303
Nate Silver was giving his opinion on Trump in the primaries, which ran counter to his model. The model predicted a Trump victory, but Silver (and most pundits) assumed that Trump was yet another GOP candidate that dominates the polls before crashing later ie Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson etc. The one thing people critizing the model itself usually have in common is that their candidate loses in it. ie McCain supporters in 08, Romney in 12, Bernie in the Dem primaries, and Trump now in 16.

One of the reasons 538 doesn't make sense to you and a lot of people is that it doesn't care that much about national polls. The reason it was so certain of an Obama victory in 2012 despite the tight national polls, was that in state polls Obama was leading exactly where he needed to be leading. Surprise surprise, the model was right to place more weight on the state polls, as Obama won that election.

Now we're seeing a repeat of all the same /pol/ talking points from 2012. 'Nate sucks, skewed polls, favorable national polls' etc. And like 2012, we're probably going to get another image like this one. Break out the glasses and get yourself some free saltwater come Nov 9.

tldr - Nate's not accurate but his model is. Clinton will win.

>>66770204
It was 9% a few days ago it changes so much i wouldnt worry about it

>>66770303

Your free hat is on it's way.

>>66771391
Tbf, Nate himself says that as long as the model's prediction is within its margin of error, either candidate can win.

Also, after the reopening of the FBI investigation, we'll probably see a tightening in the race. I just don't think Trump can get Colorado/NH.

Even at his best a week before the first debate he didn't have Colorado.

>>66771391
>>66771675

Thank you for correcting the record!

>>66771744
That's true, which is why, ironically, 538 is the model that gives him the best odds of winning of all the models.

NYT, HuffPo, and Princeton's models all have him at less than 10% and that has been consistent. So it's a bit odd that /pol/ likes to pick it's fight with the model most in their favor. Though that's probably because it's the most well known, and known for being the most accurate.

>>66771675
The meme doesnt work the other way around because trumps positions are basically a moderate version of what 4chan has been saying for years. Meanwhile (other than cuck thresds) there has been 0 evidence of establishment globalist presence on 4chan until a sudden wave of hillary posters when trump is down in the polls. Thank you for correcting the record

>>66772124
Trump loves jews and wants to censor the internet, or 'the cyber'. The only reason /pol/ likes him is because he makes liberals livid because he's rude.

>>66772245

t. clueless.

>>66772343
not an argument

>>66772124
>trumps positions are basically a moderate version of what 4chan has been saying for years
/pol/ used to be utterly dominated by libertarians just a few years ago. It's only been recently that they've gone full authoritarian, mostly because of Trump's deportations aligning fully with /pol/'s racism.

CTR is to 2016 /pol/ as JIDF was to 2012 /pol/. Aka a buzzword insult that they can run to when someone disagrees with the hivemind but they have no real way to voice any criticism of it. It's the ultimate delusion to think that a tiny organization of 18 people trying to post pro-Clinton propaganda would ever think to waste their time spending even a second trying to secure the '/pol/ vote'. Let alone to the extent of posting on 4chan 24/7 in every political thread like /pol/ seems to thinks it does by their constant calling it out.

Of course, some Clinton underling posting about Pepe has convinced them that they are all important, just like some JIDF underling posting about /k/ convinced old /pol/ that they were all important. It's tertiary at best, and paranoia at worst.

>>66771921
>most accurate

His model has been wrong on a number of predictions though. I'd argue that the most accurate predictor is the betting market an hour before.

Then again, /pol/ is biased towards their candidate.
I remember getting BTFO by Moot in 2012, so I've learned.

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It's gonna be a blowout. Trump needs to win EVERY SINGLE swing state in order to win. So, Hillary only needs to stop him from winning one of them in order to win. But she doesn't need to be too worried because she's probably going to win the majority of swing states anyway. She's entering this election with a huge electoral advantage.

Of course, she might end up being indicted by the FBI, but that's a different story.

>>66773068
>replying to a dead /pol/ thread on /int/

You honestly are sounding like a shill now.

>>66772954
>His model has been wrong on a number of predictions though
Usually when people bring up the model being wrong, they're referring to Michigan and Iowa in the primaries. The former being an anomaly due to ancient polling techniques being the only ones allowed, and the latter was Trump underperforming his polling slightly.

Saying Trump will overperform the polling because of Bernie winning Michigan is like when Bernie said he will overperform his polling because of winning Michigan. Really shouldn't place any weight on it.

Also saying Trump will overperform the polling because of underperforming his polling in Iowa is about as illogical as it gets, you'd need the gold medal in mental gymnastics to justify it.

>>66773243
It was in the first row of the catalog :)

>>66773260
Been a long time since I've seen someone who actually gets how the 538 model works.

So many idiots assume he's running his own private poll.

>>66773260
If his model is so determinative of the future result, why hasn't he called the election yet?

I think you need to go
>>>/pol/

>>66773451
Because election didn't happen yet and he can only take into account those polls that already came out.

Why is it so hard to understand?

>>66773451
Because his model gives Trump a 20% chance at a win? That's basically your odds of losing Russian roulette with a five shot revolver. You can still say 'you PROBABLY won't lose', but you can't call it with certainty.

>>66773451
He doesn't "call elections" for the same reason science never calls things "facts," only theories.

His model is determinative of probabilities. And the probabilities say Donald has about the same chance of winning as you have of losing a game of Russian Roulette.

It's not nonexistent but the odds do favor one outcome more than the other. Duh.

>>66773527
What?

>>66773558
Then why did you claim this>>66771391

>>66773609
He was speculating and making an informed prediction based on the available information.

Are you literally autistic?

>>66772880

Most white Americans are dirty progressives. Hence, where they can be found, they should be killed. There are a handful which claim not to be progressives, but they are so few in number as to be statistically irrelevant.

Just kill any American white you can catch as a precaution. They are all filthy multiculturalists, progressives, race mixers, supporters of homosexuality and trans rights, and Islamic apologists.

Most of those posting under the US flag on /int/, are self-hating whites and millennial progressives of the following type:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0diJNybk0M

>>66773735
Why do you always post this shit. Are you mentally ill?

>>66773609
Because I personally believe she'll win based off all the models, polls, and betting markets I've seen.

>>66773810
hes right though

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>tfw I unironically voted for Hillary in a critical swing state just to see /pol/ tears

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>>66773910
>tfw you don't live in a swing state.

>>66773910
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gj1gbKW_Wgk&

This is what you voted for. You voted for this to be your hometown.

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>>66773961

:^) Guess which one.. one that Trump has to win.

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>>66773910
Wisconsin here. Doing my part.

But if you just wanna trigger pol wouldn't you technically be doing it ironically?

>>66774042
Florida?

>>66770204
Very

They will RIG the shit out of this.

People still think Trump can win? lol

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>>66774018

>muh Mexicans

Meanwhile ignore the fact that our moronic Governor and GOP led house/senate has cost the state probably getting close to a billion dollars in lost events thanks to a stupid bill and then being a bunch of smug stubborn jackasses after.

Look at this shit - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpq_wAUk5KA

>>66774156

A bit "North" of that

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>>66773735
>Song of Poor
>complaining about multiculturalism

>>66774305
You know what's even funnier? He's a Filipino immigrant.

Do people really want a Female President so badly they'd elect Crooked Hillary Clinton?

>>66774673
You're looking at it the wrong way round. They want to stop Trump so badly that they're willing to vote for a candidate with a pretty poor favorability rating. If she were up against a normal Republican, or god forbid a centrist Republican, she'd probably be behind in the polls.

>>66773735
aren't canadians more like this??

>>66775029
So why didn't they elect a regular republican instead of the only person hill could win against

>>66775228
It was a combination of three main factors.

A) There were multiple 'regular' Republicans running in the primary, splitting the moderate vote.

B) The general electorate may like moderates, but this year the Republican base didn't. They were pretty tired of normal politicians.

C) The voters and politicians were divided on an issue that voters considered critical: illegal immigration. Politicians wanted to court the hispanic vote by having moderate stances or being outright in favor of amnesty. Voters wanted a halt to illegal immigration and large scale deportations. Guess which was the only candidate promising them what they wanted.

>>66770204
538 is largely meme, but Trump has almost no path to victory.

The way the electoral map works, there are more solidly Democratic places than solidly Republican places.

Trump has to win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada to become president. If Hillary takes just one of those states, she wins.

Current projections show Hillary taking both Nevada and Colorado. Florida and North Carolina are toss-ups, but lean Hillary.

Of the necessary swing states, only Ohio is probably going to go for Trump.

Hillary will sell the people to the corps, wage some light warfare abroad and maintain the status quo. Just like just about every US president before her. Nothing special.
Trump is actively dangerous and I say this despite the fact that he is insanely pro-Israel and promised to proclaim Jerusalem as exclusively Israeli. If you elect Hillary nothing will change and the system will keep fucking you. If you elect Trump you're gambling with the fate of the world. America is still the world's greatest super power. You're not some irrelevant Scandi paradise. Please vote responsibly.

>>66770303
Silver is a statistician, not a politico. He predicted Trump would lose the primary even though his stats showed Trump keeping his steady lead. Silver believed the 56% of anti-Trump Republican primary voters. would coalesce behind an establishment candidate. They didn't. Trump won.

Since the primary, Silver has been relying complaining and analyzing stats. That's his job. His editorializing about "how the GOP can stay viable" is just armchair speculation by a math whizz who thinks he's a political genius.