This triggers logical positivists!

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This make analytical philosophers to shit their pants

Actually that makes Aristotle shit his pants. Are you sure you know anything about the history of logic?

Was a black Swan ever actually a big deal? Surely you could look at other birds, eg rooks, and conclude birds can be black. Then you could look at sheep or albinos and conclude, just because many are one colour some can be a different colour. Ergo, black swans are perfectly possible.

>All swans are white
>If there is some swan which is not white, then 1 is false.
>There is some swan which is not white.
>Therefore 1 is false.
I don't get it. Why would this terrify anyone who understands the relationship between universal and particular statements?

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>>311219
it is a personal choice to say that swans and rooks are birds.

>>311368
BAVI mate, BAVI.

>>311225
It's a joke on the almost gratuitous trust of positivists and stemfags in induction.

>>311219
>Was a black Swan ever actually a big deal?

Before their discovery, they were thought to be literally impossible.

Also, most significant events in history are black swans. It's always the event that nobody prepares for that has the biggest impact

>tfw people try to swipe aside the "black swan" argument against induction and verifiability like it doesn't have devastating consequences in economics

>>311374
BANTI

>>311916
Those people are the first to bring out muh Hume in an argument.

>>312009
>Before their discovery, they were thought to be literally impossible.
"No."

>>312031
>>312009
You realize Taleb is peddling total snake oil in that book right?

>>311916
Would you bet your life on the sun coming up tomorrow? Would you bet your life on Anselm's proof of God's existence?
Your honest answers are yes and no. Therefore, you have gratuitous trust in induction. If you say anything else, you're lying and you know it.

>>312057
Would I bet my life on the sun coming up tomorrow?
Yes.
But that only means that I, as the rest of humans, have strong tendencies to associate contiguous things as cause -effect and to believe that the past facts will happen again (Hume). It does not mean at all that induction is valid.
You may have proven me a hypocrite. But you have not proven that inductions are valid inferences.

ITT: pseudo-philosophers argue over nothing.
Basically women.

>>312009
>Also, most significant events in history are black swans. It's always the event that nobody prepares for that has the biggest impact

World War 1?

>>312867

Its length certainly was a black swan. Most people thought it was going to last a few months, and would cost only a fraction of what it actually did cost