Ask a foreign policy scholar anything

What's the deal with foreign policy?

>>2905400
What is this supposed to mean? What is foreign policy about, why is it important, etc?

>>2905404
Pff, some scholar you are.

>>2905409
I'm lost. Is this a troll, or is there some deeper meaning that I am missing in your statement.

>>2905358
are pears just apples for hipsters?

Ask a foreign service agent anything.

Btw your classes were dogshit, foreign policy studied from a classroom is wholly useless. All international relations theory is worthless.

>>2905428
Well then.

>>2905419
Not even related to foreign policy.

So then, what is your take on the current state of affairs in the world? What with all that's going down

>>2905436
>doesn't see the deeper meaning

>>2905452
It's in a transitional period. The focus of the world will have to shift to terrorism, as many countries have adopted a "not my problem" attitude to it, until it affects them directly.

China and Russia are both trying to expand their spheres, with varying degrees of success. America will either have to take charge, and become stronger, or will fall behind and lose its global hegemony.

>>2905460
What do you think of nazi germany and the holocaust?

No questions right now, just wanted to tell that you I like your threads.

Why are all """foreign policy experts""" neocon?

Will we see China take over the US role in the TPP, or to what extent will China adopt key passages and language from the TPP to negotiate trade with SEA and PacRim countries?

>>2905489
I'm not. The US should expand its influence however it can, but fighting in every war is stupid.

>>2905476
Bad move, as it lost so many good scientists to the allies. From a logical perspective they would have been good to the scientists, but nope, they decided "fuck that".

>>2905488
Thank you very much.

On a scale of 1 to Chrysippus, how much is Vladimir Putin laughing at us right now?

>>2905493
China will be eager to try and fill the US' role; however they are currently tightening their economy due to the risk of "popping their economic bubble" as it were. Its likely that, should their economy start soaring again, they will be able to take over the role, unless the US starts aggressively pursuing bilateral deals with the TPP countries, or else forming a new one/rejoining.

>>2905521
>Chrysippus
Love the joke; The division in the US regarding the allegations of Trump-Russia connection (which has no evidence, nor would it even be a crime) plays directly into Putin's hand. I'd say that, assuming the allegations and leaks continue, Putin will hit Chrysippus levels before the end of Trump's term(s?).

What are the odds that the EU will be able to fill any of the power vacuum left by the decline of the United States?

>>2905536
Based on current situation? Low. The problem with the EU is that it is largely run by Germany; Germany's strict economic policies abound. Europe as a whole, other than a few select countries like England and Poland, seems to have given up on Hard Power as a whole. Also them getting bombed and raped by migrants won't help.

How likely is it that the USA, Russia and china ally with each other to consolidate the worlds military power?

>>2905540
>Also them getting bombed and raped by migrants won't help.
I'm confused by this language coming from a foreign policy scholar. Can you elaborate?

>>2905542
How likely is it that the Balkans announce reunification and love towards each other? Next to zero. Unless a massive threat rises, it's unlikely the three will ever get along. Consider it to be USA vs Russia, with China shifting wherever convenient. Its unlikely that all three will ever agree, due to different goals, governments, etc. It is possible that Russia will at some point become an ally of the US, much like seemed possible with Russia, before Putin took power. If that happens it's likely China will view the US as a much more extant threat, and work to undermine it (even more).

Assuming Trump suffers a relatively quick and humiliating fall from grace at the hands of the IC, do you think they'll pursue a proportional response to Russia's interference or do you think they'll escalate the situation?

>>2905546
I'm blunt in general, the occupation (if being a grad student can really be called that) doesn't imply being refined necessarily.

Basically the chaos of the migrant crisis will make the government's inefficient, and terrorist attacks even more commonplace. Imagine the entire country as a no-go zone. Governments would lose control if the situation keeps up. If it reaches the scale of "insurgency", for lack of a better word, that was seen in the Vietnam war, many European countries will be done for.

Is Merkel genuinely testing the waters to abandon transatlanticism or is she trying to build up German military efforts to meet NATO spending targets while making it seem like she's not kowtowing to Trump?

>>2905553
I feel like you're just a /pol/tard larping tbqhwu

>>2905551
There is no evidence that Trump colluded, and even if he did, it's very unlikely to be an actual crime. Russia did try to interfere though, and I think that at some point, either Trump himself, or the IC alone will go after Russia. Russia is likely to take any kind of response as provocation and escalate. War seems unlikely, just lots of tension. A Proxy war between the US and Iran and/or Syria or North Korea is possible, but not very likely.

>>2905358
Why was the western world so slow to react to Nazi Germany's currency games in the mid 30s? Why keep cutting them slack on trade deals even after they refused to devalue their currency and make their foreign trade noncompetitive?

>>2905560
I'm not, but as I have no way to prove that beyond the shadow of a doubt (without outing my identity online, which I'm not keen to do) you are free to think that.

>>2905553
>Basically the chaos of the migrant crisis will make the government's inefficient, and terrorist attacks even more commonplace
The most recent terrorist attacks in Britain happened by second generation immigrants who were radicalized over the internet and then by visiting their home countries, I see that as different than the migrant crisis which is being managed by multiple countries from Turkey to the Balkans to Germany. At what stage do you see government mismanagement coming into play that will result in direct terrorist attacks from the migrants themselves? Or are there any current examples you can share?

>>2905569
For the same reason that the west was so slow to react to Germany annexing Austria, sudetenland, Memel, etc etc. No one wanted another war, so they let them off with a "just this once" everytime.

>>2905558
Hard to tell. Merkel is unlikely to permanently sever ties with the US, incase a much more liberal president comes along, with which she can agree with more.

With Russia breathing down Europe's neck, she would be an idiot to reject THE global military power.

>>2905571
Post a time stamped student ID with all the identifiable info blacked out, that should do it.

>>2905572
ISIS has claimed that they already have cells in place, and that they are using the crisis to get into countries. Whether they are truly deeply embedded or not cannot be known. I would say that when the Muslims make up ~15% of the population, they will begin a wave of terror. This video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oDbvuNlk3E) provides an interesting look at their strategy, if not entirely correct.

>>2905579
>For the same reason that the west was so slow to react to Germany annexing Austria, sudetenland, Memel, etc etc. No one wanted another war, so they let them off with a "just this once" everytime.
Why do you think not providing subsidies for German exports would lead to war? They could quite literally not do anything, and let the market take care of itself.

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>>2905585
Will this do? Had backround previously, but file was too big to upload.

>>2905592
One of the reasons they got away with foreign trade competitiveness was that, around the 30's, Hitler introduced a policy of only exporting raw materials to smaller nations, or those within their own sphere. As best as possible at least. England might feel that they were being scum, but they weren't being directly hurt as much as they could have been, so they did nothing.

Bump?

>>2905668
Anyone?

1. What do you think will happen to the SDF after ISIS is defeated? Is there a likelihood that the regional powers in Iraq and Syria would work together to defeat the SDF? Would the United States continue supporting the SDF?

2. What do you think about the recent developments in Afghanistan with the claims that Iran and Russia are supporting the Taliban? Is there any truth to the claim?

3. Which country does Kashmir truly belong to?

Is the EU a good thing?

What's happening with Vietnam, with regards to the SCS and the ongoing conflict with China? They seem caught between the two camps. Are they really attempting to break with China?

>>2905705

Adding to this one, is the EU going to survive? Kaiser Merkel's statements almost make me wonder if we're about to see a resurgence of EU consolidation and international strength/leadership.

Are we ever going to see a resolution of the Kurdish problem?

>>2905703
1. Hard to tell. Assad is likely to wage an extermination war against them. Trump seems truly pissed about Assads use of chemical weapons, and is likely to try and depose Assad, likely indirectly, by arming the SDF.

2. Russia is pretty much re-starting the great game; given that top military brass believe it is so, I would consider it likely. It could force a confrontation with Russia, but Russia is likely to back down; deny that they did it, but stop doing it. It's a handy inconvnience to the US, but not anything war-worthy.

3. IMO Kashmir belongs to itself. Although any Kashmiri state would unfortunately likely be a puppet of China or India.

>>2905705
The concept is good, but the execution has been terrible. Its effectively a supranation run by Germany.
>>2905712
What with the EU threatening to sanction Poland and Hungary if they don't take in refugees, I think it's likely the more liberal states will consolidate, and the less liberal will leave and form their own group.

>>2905553
If you believe this you'll be a shit foreign policy scholar. Terrorist attacks kill infinitesimally few people and the fact that you think this will reach the scale of a national insurgency is laughable at best.

>>2905707
They praised the recent FONOP around Mischief Reef, and FONOPs give them breathing room.

It seems unlikely they will fully/publically break from China, unless China is severely weakened, or loses interest in the region (which is very unlikely).

>>2905724
Ever heard of Lebanon?

>>2905714
Depends on a lot. If Assad is overthrown, the Kurds might establish a more official state, but if he remains, they aren't likely to get statehood.

>>2905718
>1. Hard to tell. Assad is likely to wage an extermination war against them. Trump seems truly pissed about Assads use of chemical weapons, and is likely to try and depose Assad, likely indirectly, by arming the SDF.

So what would be the best bet for the SDF in this scenario? They don't seem to have any friends in the region and the US is likely to abandon them when their own interests are met. How should they be gearing up for the defeat of ISIS?

>2. Russia is pretty much re-starting the great game; given that top military brass believe it is so, I would consider it likely. It could force a confrontation with Russia, but Russia is likely to back down; deny that they did it, but stop doing it. It's a handy inconvnience to the US, but not anything war-worthy.

So how do you rate the survival chance of the current Afghan government out of 10? Do you think that they could be deposed by the Taliban? And what do you think of the recent protests in Kabul and the growing tension within the Afghan govt?

> IMO Kashmir belongs to itself

So what is your opinion on the pro-Pakistani movement currently marching through the streets?

>>2905738
Best bet would be to push as deep into ISIS as they can, seize the land before the Government can. Working on methods to shoot down drones that ISIS is beginning to use, alongside artillery and armored vehicles.

>>2905736
>comparing lebanon to europe
kek

>>2905738
2. Depends on a lot, if the US stays in, very good. If they leave, close to negative. Afghanistan is such a odd state, with so many different cultures and languages. Its possible it will balkanize.

>>2905744
"Because of its financial power and diversity in its heyday, Lebanon was referred to as the "Switzerland of the East" during the 1960s, and its capital, Beirut, attracted so many tourists that it was known as "the Paris of the Middle East"."

>>2905738
3. Its likely another few skirmishes are game; Kashmir is unlikely to get independence unless another full scale war breaks out, and or the UN decides to mediate.

>>2905751
I don't see Europe ever reaching the levels of chaos Lebanon faced. In the case of Lebanon, there were regional players out to profit from the conflict and supported and armed their favored factions. Will that ever happen in Europe?

How long until Saudi Arabia stops having so much influence on the Middle East ?

>>2905751
Just because some tourists gave it a charming name has nothing to do with the reality of social and economic conditions on the ground. a lot of talk about lebanon in those days had a tendency to ignore the country's underlying problems for a narrative of westernization and liberal democracy. If that were really the case there wouldn't have been a civil war

>>2905760
Iran, and others, have a lot to gain from a Muslim overthrowal, Russia has a lot to gain from anything that weakens Europe. Its possible.

>>2905762
When Iran, Syria and Qatar have been dealt with, most likely.

>>2905764
It was a great country, high HDI, etc. It was a powderkeg of Shia, Sunni and Christians, and it went off. With Shia and Sunnis pouring into Europe...

>>2905756
What do you think of Brazil's current political situation?
What is Brazil's position in nowadays Global Geopolitics?

What do you think will be the answer to the refugee/terrorism crysis? Especially from the EU

>>2905775
They have the resources to be strong, but alongside Venezuela, bad governing has messed with that.

Regional power to be sure, but not a lot of soft power, just hard.

>>2905762

The moment the US stops backing them in a major way, I suspect. Or is that just attempting to keep a leash on them?

>>2905777
The ideal answer will be setting up safe zones in Syria, so the refugees don't have to leave. I think the most likely is that it will continue unabated until at least one country goes Sharia.

When's the next Chinese Happening? The next Boxer Rebellion, the next Great Leap Forward? They seem to have one every couple of decades

>>2905778
Thanks for the answer, but, what do you mean with soft or hard power?

>>2905782
Little bit of both; Saudi always kow-tows to the US president, while scheming behind his back. Once Iran, Syria, etc are gone, the US won't need to care about them (assuming it achieves oil independence), so they will lose a lot of power.

>>2905769
How would Iran gain from a Sunni Muslim insurrection? They already have a tough time dealing with the blowback from 30 years of supporting terror in parts of the Middle East.

>>2905786
Consider this, I ask you to give me some of your chocolate bar. You say yes because you like me. Thats soft power. Or, I say "give it to me or I'll beat the shit out of you". Thats Hard power. Basically military strength vs diplomatic.

>>2905789
Instability in general is good for them, and the Shia government would try to insurrect of their own. It's near win-win situation, unless that insurrection ends up targeting them next.

>>2905785
Depends on a lot. If China is intent on aligning with US, it could be a US-South Korean-Japan-China invasion of North Korea; if not, its likely to be a trade conflict with the US, that potentially leads to war.

Nowadays, what are the possibilities of the refugee crisis destroy western society as we know?
If it does crumble, would today's third world countries become the bastion of the old western values?

Sorry but, if you really are a "foreign policy scholar" and compare Lebanon (a small state without industry, surrounded by warring countries) to Germany (highest exporter, leader of the EU, highly educated and one the most industrialized countries in the world, surrounded by stable, peaceful nations), than your doctorate must be from a diploma mill. Your blatant bias is worty of a pol/troll and frankly, I haven't really seen anything all that insightfull in your threads so far.
I would recommended other anons to take everything doc J says with large grain of salt.

>>2905791
Im sorry if im bothering you, but what makes you think Brazil is a hard power in south america?

>>2905797
Trump talked a lot of shit about China during his campaign, do you really think he and Xi could align like that?

>>2905804
All of western society falling seems unlikely. Some of it, perhaps. I don't see third world countries becoming bastions, largely due to the corruption in most of them, but it's possible, if improbable.

>>2905810
No one wants North Korea to nuke someone. China would take a lot of political flak if they let NK do that, so they are likely to make at least token efforts to get them to stop.

>>2905358

Why did North Korea bother to develop a nuclear armament when they already have all the deterrent they need and moreso besides between their conventional artillery and the fuckhueg reconstruction cost that would be involved in reintegrating their people into SK, who would obviously be the group that would administrate any defeated NK, which the South Koreans themselves don't want to bother with?

>>2905807
Lebanon has a very large HDI, and other such "western" things. True, Germany has almost 3x the per capita GDP, 1/2 the poverty, etc. But, in terms of history, Lebanon is the best modern example. I can hardly use ancient Persia.

I haven't finished my PHD yet, (as could be ascertained by my student ID being current).

Everything that goes that far into what-ifs should be taken with a grain of salt, of course. I'm not saying that it will for sure happen, just that it is my prediction that it could happen.

What's your take on US-Iran relations? At how will they affect US-Russia relations?

>>2905819
Because conventional artillery only goes so far. A nuke can irradiate land, so hitting Seoul with one would make (some of) the land unlivable.

>>2905823
Iran is actively baiting the US. It seems unlikely anything will change unless the regime is overthrown, and or the US invades.

Russia sees Iran as a useful thorn in the US' side, and is likely to diplomatically defend Iran, but may choose not to fight the US militarily over them, if push comes to shove.

>>2905826
Nuclear weapon irradiation is enormously overblown and not a particular threat; you don't see Hiroshima and Nagasaki uninhabitable today, do you? The isotopes that yield big explosions don't go for lots of decay (if they did, the isotopes would be too unstable to make a bomb in the first place). You could give a couple of thousand people cancer, but that's not going to stop or deter an attack.

Besides which, the North Koreans had years after the collapse of their soviet benefactor in which the lack of a nuclear program didn't lead to America eating their regime. And by far the biggest deterrent they have is their own poverty and backwardness, again, why build another when they're already essentially unassailable?

>>2905826
Following on from that, how clear-eyed do you think Kim and the NK leaders are about their nuclear aims? I mean, they know that if they ever actually launched a nuke the US would obliterate them, right? What's their long-term goal?

>>2905809
No problem at all. I should clarify that a nation is not a hard power, it possesses hard power.

Brazil has ~1.4 Million reserve forces, 220k army forces, and 400k military police. Alongside this it has a large air force (for its area at least).

>>2905830
>>2905832
The survival of Kim. They are just sane enough to realize the US REALLY doesn't want anyone nuked. North Korea could use a cobalt bomb, or some other type of "salted bomb", intended to irradiate land for a long time. I believe Cobalt makes land unlivable for 120 years, maybe more.

Aside from that they have nerve and chemical weapons.

>>2905835
I see now, thank you.
And it also has the technology for nuclear bombs.

>>2905842
Sort of. I believe they stopped that in the 90's, officially at least. As far as I am aware, they have most of what they need tech wise, but not the material to build it.

>>2905822
I'm sorry, I'm not familliar with US student IDs, (and you calling yourself Dr. Johnson gave me the impression you already had a PhD).

I was very much disturbed by your comment on Germany being raped and bombed by refugees. Compared to Britain and France, Germany has had far less islamistic terrorism eventhough the influx of refugees in 15/16 was higher. The only thing that has changed in any significane since the refugee crisis is a slight increase in the crime rate especially among foreigners. It should be differentiated however, that this increase was by migrants from mainly north africa and Afghanistan, where the migrants have almost no chance of recieving permenant residency and behave accordingly. The refugees from Iraq/Syria have a chance of recieving asylum and or thus mostly well behaved, I think a person with your knowledge shoud differentiate and generally be more aware of that.

>>2905839
Uhm nerve and chemical weapons are the same thing. Do you really think Kim would devolp a salted nuke??? Not even the Cold War powers would do somthing that idiotic

Thoughts on David Shambaugh's assessment of China in the next 10 years?

>>2905852
No problem, I should have made it more clear.

One of the reasons I focus on Germany is based on the assumption of the three step Jihad, they are nearing the second stage. Interestingly enough Belgium has somewhere around 14% Muslim population (non-catholic Christian and other religions counted in this, so exact number unknown), whereas islam is 5% in Germany, but they haven't hit second stage.

>>2905773
There's no equivalent to the PLO which set up base in Lebanon and which state power was impotent to crush because of an internally divided society (and outrage that the Lebanese army was not defending against Israeli violations against its sovereignty). The civil war was as much caused by the PLO problem and agressive commando raids and bombings by Israel against them as about sectarianism per se. Israeli bombing, for example, displaced hundreds of thousands of Shia in southern lebanon to Beirut slums.

There was nothing equivalent to having a huge percentage of palestinian refugees living in miserable conditions in internment camps on european soil. There's nothing comparable in all of europe to having neighbors like syria and israel who are willing to manipulate events in your country and violate your sovereignty for the sake of forwarding their own goals. There is nothing equivalent to the sectarian political system set up after independence from the French. There is nothing equivalent to the legacy of suspicion and distrust which the french had sowed in the decades before independence. It's also worth mentioning that this very political system failed to provide basic services to large swathes of the Muslim population (another reason why southern shia lacking agricultural and transportation infrastructure had to move to Beirut). Corruption abounded, the political system blatantly favored Christians. Shia were the most poorly served in this structure. I could ramble on but tldr the european refugee situation has very little in common with lebanon.

>>2905863
Nerve gas is a subsection, not the same thing. There are rumors, somewhat credible, that Israel intended to hit themselves with a salted nuke, if they lost the six day war.

>>2905871
Again, its the only modern point of comparison. The analogy isn't perfect, as the context is different, but it was meant to give an example that large scale islamic insurgency was possible. I should have been more clear.

>>2905876
A country-wide Masada? That's something.

>>2905864
I believe his assessment that they must become a democracy (or at least closer to being one) to become stronger is correct, but I disagree with his believe that it will come soon.

Unless a reformer comes to lead, I think China's sheer brutality will keep the citizens in line, by and large.

Is the US an empire?

>>2905889
Depends on your classifications. In terms of power and influence? Yes. In terms of the usual brutality and imperialism? No.

>>2905884
Are they in danger of a debt-fueled economic fuckup, like Japan in the 80s and 90s?

>>2905896
Potentially. They have seriously messed with their currency, and it seems like their bubble is bursting. They are moving quickly to locking down the economy, so they don't crash entirely. I think they'll survive, but won't get anywhere near their historic growth again, for atleast a few decades.

>>2905884
I disagree. I think as the middle class becomes larger and wealthier that they will inevitably demand more rights and refuse being limited by the government. Now I'm not a huge proponent of Modernisation Theory, but saying that I think after Tienanmen, the CCP can never afford to behave in the same way. They got lucky.

China has over 100,000 protests and riots a year which the party allows to happen and then fizzle out and this number will only continue under Xi's increased call of authoritarianism.

>>2905901
One of the problems China will face is that the sheer population of them means the ratio of civilian vs soldier is so much higher than in the average totalitarian state.

I'm not saying an overthrowal won't come, I'm just saying it will be a few decades.

>>2905900
I recall reading that China's huge economic growth is basically their way of pacifying their population, but that always seemed like kind of a meme to me. How much truth is there in the idea?

>>2905910
I'd argue it's authoritarian rather than totalitarian.

>>2905914
Pretty much. They peg their success at a certain level of GDP growth. if they go below it, it will have serious problems in proving why they are the legitimate rulers of China. Their big push now is into Nationalism and trying to be the Big Boys In Asia to whip up the masses.

>>2905914
As a communist state, them having money is key to their survival.

>>2905870
I've never really heard of the hypothesis of a 3 step jihad, all I could find through a quick google search was some youtube video by a David Wood, could you give some sources on it?

How great of a threat is Islam? Could it ever seriously threaten the west?

>>2905925
Sebastian Gorka uses a 7 step model, and the muslim brotherhood lays out a 5 step model. I find the three step model more concise, but you may find the others more accurate.

>>2905931
I'll look at the sources in just a minute but is the 3 step jihad really just from David Wood (he does not seem like a very credible soource)

>>2905941
If you are looking for credible, Gorka is the way to go.

Its getting late here, so I'm gonna go to bed. I'll be back on tommorow if the thread is still open then. If not I'll make another thread.

Was Brexit inevitable?

It seems to me like it was, looking back on the history of the EU/EEC.

>>2905944
>Gorka
>Credible

Hi /pol/!

>>2905950

Thanks, Dr. Good thread.

>>2905954
Yeah he didn't even answer my question about the 3 step jihad (the only source on which is david wood, a evangelic christian with a PhD in religious studies)
And now a former Breitbart-editor is a credible source....
I really doubt Dr. Js academic integrity

>>2905954
>>2905959
I'm sorry, a deputy assistant to the President isn't credible? Someone who worked in the Hungarian ministry of defence, worked as an expert on counterterrorism for years, etc, isn't credible? Him working at Breitbart doesn't cancel out all the other things that make him an expert on terrorism.

David Wood isn't the most credible, but he puts it the most succinctly (as I have said repeatedly now).

>>2905951
They might have stayed much longer, had the migrant crisis not manifested. EU also screwed them economically, what with fishing and research regulations; so they are likely to leave long term anyways.

>>2907008
What is your opinion on hungary?

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>>2907008
Soon to be Doctor Johnson, do you at all believe that China is going to end up in a reformist illiberal situation due to its culture being opposed to liberalism?

Do you see the United States ever actually engaging in detente/partnership with Russia and Iran and moving away from Saudi Arabia and the gulf states? Or are the entrenched Pentagon powers/Neo Cold War adherents too entrenched for that to be a possibility?

hi foreign policy scholar, I was wondering how can/does Israel keep up with the situation in the Gaza strip, why aren't they effectively conquering it like they did with the nearby territories in their last two wars or leaving it to the other palestinians?

I subscribe to the realist theories of international relations. What would you say were the non-ideological motivation for the Afghanistan invasion of 2001 and the Iraq war of 2003? Is oil really the answer for the latter?

>>2905358
Where do you see EU and Germany heading?
Do you think that EU moving away from USA means closer ties with Russia?

>>2907112
It's possible. It depends on the leadership. If the growth stagnates, the government might be forced to adopt even more strict approach, which could either lead to an aggressively subservient population, or an overthrowal of the Chinese government.

>>2907181
Partnership with Russia may be possible when/if Putin is gone. It seemed likely Russia would become friends with the US, and perhaps even join NATO, before Putin took over.

Iran is unlikely unless they are overthrown.

Saudi and gulf states are likely to be moved away from, as they are much closer to allies of convenience, than an alliance based in trust and mutual like, such as the US and UK are.

>>2907072
Hungary is right to refuse to let them in.

>>2907471
For afghanistan and Iraq were both for the express purpose of removing a threat. Saddam called for H. W Bush to be killed, and hated America in general.

Considering that the US never stole oil, we would have to be really bad at invading, and considering the rapid speed of the war, we clearly weren't.

>>2907346
They can effectively do whatever they want with it, as the US will back them in it.

They do this largely because it 1. Is very hostile to them, so allowing them to live on, while reserving the right to invade and overthrow, is a good decision. 2. The land forms somewhat of a buffer between Egypt and Israel, which is good for their relations.

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>>2907544
In general, that's hard to answer. If Poland and Hungary leave, it's likely they will become more liberal and globalist. If they stay, they may become more moderate.

They aren't likely to go closer to Russia, because Russia wants them all dead, and to take all their land. Geopolitical rule #1: If there is a plain, you want to control all of it. Europe has a giant plain called the Northern European Plain (see picture).

>>2908064
Removing a threat? No one honestly believed that these states, among the least advanced in the world, posed any serious military threat to the US?

>>2908095

I am a Croat, not a Serb living in Croatia but ethnic Croat and even I do not buy Russia wants to invade theory.

With what? To settle Polish and Hungarian land with whom? Russians that are not breeding? Russians do not have above replacement rate, their economy is in dire need of reforms, even Putin seems to be slowly moving into that direction.

I have followed this thread and your last, you do have mostly sound theory and methodology. But then you post some really idiotic things like comparing Germany and Lebanon, Russian invasion theory.

Will Russia continue being a scapegoat for random European liberals?

Name a few developing nations that will have HDI comparable to Europe in the future.

>>2908095
>plain
More like levelled. Cause Finland aint no plain

>>2908377
They posed a thread to Saudi Arabia and the rest of the gulf oil states, which was a major threat to global economic stability.

>>2906998
Back to /pol/ you go racist nazi kkk.

>>2908427
The guy's obviously a neocon or at least heavily influenced by the ideology and rhetoric of the Neo Cold Warists. His constant "we could be friendly with Russia but PUTIN..." answers and his line about Iraq and Afghanistan are straight out of the Dubya era answer book.

>>2908594
>we could be friendly with Russia but PUTIN

That's the truth though.

We were fine under Yeltsin.

Even under Putin, things were fine until he decided to go full retard.

>>2908427
>I do not buy Russia wants to invade theory.
>With what? To settle Polish and Hungarian land with whom? Russians that are not breeding? Russians do not have above replacement rate, their economy is in dire need of reforms, even Putin seems to be slowly moving into that direction.

Exactly. The reason Russia got away with annexing Crimea was because it is a 99% ethnic Russian autonomous zone. At best they might be able to pull of a similar model in North Kazakhstan. Beyond that Russia isn't in a time or place where they can annex anyone.

>>2905460
>he thinks terrorism is a real problem and not just a meme hyped by the media
Opinion discarded.

>>2908624
The media is destroying western civilization though.

>>2908599
We were fine with Putin until around the time Obama got in office and Putin, seeing a weaker leader than Dubya, began getting more assertive. The Neo Cold Warists (creatures raised in the Reagan administration and spat out by neocon think tanks like AEI) still see us as having a very 1970s/1980s mindset: Russia and Iran are our enemies becuase, presumably, they're too powerful to make client states out of (and in Iran's case actively rejected our puppet ruler). We use client states to keep a hold on the middle east and because the big Shia state rejected us we instead arm, fund and prop up the jihadist Sunni states. Meanwhile, Iran's not out there committing acts of terrorism and pushing the building of mosques that spread extremist ideology while our good friends Saudi Arabia stab us in the back again and again.

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>>2908735
>Meanwhile, Iran's not out there committing acts of terrorism

I actually have a huge block of copy/paste for these threads now.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/iran-responsible-for-1998-us-embassy-bombings/2011/12/08/gIQAuEAAfO_story.html?utm_term=.aab0a37b6aa1

Gee, it's another US court ruling that Iran collaborated with Al Qaeda, in a different attack

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Feb-07/246688-us-targets-key-iran-based-al-qaeda-facilitator.ashx

Gee, it's the US Treasury Department stating that Iran supports Al Qaeda in Syria.

>http://blogs.wsj.com/corruption-currents/2012/10/18/treasury-places-sanctions-on-al-qaeda-operative-in-iran/

Gee, it's the Treasury Department naming an Al Qaeda operative that Iran is sheltering.

>https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/crime/judge-orders-sudan-iran-to-pay-75-million-to-family-of-uss-cole-victim/2015/03/31/a2105dd8-d7b8-11e4-ba28-f2a685dc7f89_story.html

Gee, it's yet another federal court ruling that Iran helped Al Qaeda with yet another terrorist attack.

http://dailycaller.com/2011/12/16/federal-judge-iran-shares-responsibility-for-911-terror-attacks/#ixzz26yuUm99b

Gee, it's a judge explicitly listing all of the evidence, including the flight simulators that Iran bought for Al Qaeda, and the internal memorandums from the Iranian government itself showing their cooperation.

>>2905358
fuck off fag

>>2908624
>terrorism isn't a problem
Opinion disregarded.

>>2908824
>bunch of permavirgins kill 20 people a year
>in a country with 300 homicides a year
>this is a problem

Stop being a pleb.

>>2908944
Not going to town centres and stuff, or in any way feeling inhibited by the thought of crime, is bad. Especially the thought of some random mass murderer. That's not a fear that used to exist, and any rational man would strive to remove the cause of that fear, not just shrug and say "If we kill our enemies they win" Trudeau style

>>2908954
>and any rational man would strive to remove the cause of that fear

Has the Western world reacted rationally to reduce terrorism?

Seems like more of a retarded clusterfuck of opportunism and attention whoring that does nothing but increase both the frequency of terrorism and the fear generated by them.

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>>2905358

How would you rank Woodrow Wilson as a president?

As a Georgetown MSFS graduate, I am bothered by this thread. I am going to proceed to correct a number of factual errors, and then add current knowledge about a few issues that I specialize in. Specifically, those issues being, economic integration, Chinese foreign policy, and international economic development.

I must say that I am really bothered by a bunch of the posts here, and the fact there hasn't been more significant additions from other anons. I'll try fixing that.

>>2909100
Excuse me, how would I go about reenacting the plot of the Brigmore Witches, trapping your soul in a mirror, and stealing your life?

t. 2.95 GPA

>>2908735
>it's another anon makes a 'saudis stabbed us in the back'

can it really be called a stab in the back if US policymakers seem to be fully aware of it, can obviously do something about it, but choose not to because they're also benefiting from it?

>>2905522
>however they are currently tightening their economy due to the risk of "popping their economic bubble"

To start, this doesn't logically follow. The Chinese regulators have been selectively tightening monetary policy and improving regulation of certain problematic investments. Tightening your monetary policy "due to the risk of popping their economic bubble" is the exact wrong thing to do, and China's regulators aren't doing that.

What they are doing is brining credit growth into line with nominal GDP growth. In Q1 2017 credit grew 12%. Nominal GDP expanded 11.9%.

Furthermore, there is no Chinese economic bubble. There may be over-investment in certain sectors, such as heavy industry or coal mines, but the rest of the investments continue to bring returns of 5-10% each year.

If this was not true, why do so many Chinese citizens invest their money?

>>2908624
You are simply wrong. Terrorism may not appear to cause many deaths or attacks on an absolute scale, but the overall effect of terrorism since 9/11 has been immense.

What should be does not matter. What is, does.

>>2905547
It is nearly impossible that Russia will ever ally with the USA as long as the current Western alliance system is in operation. Even the pro-American president Yeltsin, with his practically full dictatorial powers, opposed the USA in many different areas.
Real geopolitic circumstances have created the rivalry between the Russian bloc and the Western bloc.
It is why this worry about Europe pulling away from the USA is meaningless. The USA could quite literally "shoot someone in Madison Square Garden" and still get voted for by the Western world.

Of course, in 50 years, who knows.

>>2905718
Assad is much more likely to work with the Kurds against the TFSA and Turks. Turkey essentially owns a large portion of sovereign Syrian territory, and it actively funds the Syrian government's enemies. Fighting the SDF = the pro-FSA members taking control of the SDF.

Cont*

>>2909150
>Assad is much more likely to work with the Kurds against the TFSA and Turks. Turkey essentially owns a large portion of sovereign Syrian territory

So does the SDF. And unlike the SDF, Turkey doesn't have the same aspirations of creating a sovereign state spanning across the ruins of multiple countries

>inb4 sultan erdogan and neo-ottomanism

> and it actively funds the Syrian government's enemies.

I don't see the FSA as a bigger threat to Assad than the SDF. The FSA is divided internally and they have cultivated a very poor public image over the years. they're not as significant a threat as the SDF

>>2905731
The FONOPs have been done against the Vietnamese claims, as well as RoC/Phil/Malay/Brunei/PRC.

Leaving out that key fact is not smart. It is deceiving.

>>2905778
The Brazilians are also limited by their language and horrible education system.

>>2905797
China in not going to align with the USA to invade North Korea. That simply isn't happening for the foreseeable future. If China does anything, it will be to economically cripple NK and/or initiate regime change by itself.

>>2905810
Noticed the recent trade deal announced between the US and China, or the praise the USA has given China over NK?
Campaign rhetoric is quite meaningless, but then again, we never know with Trump.

>>2905830
Noticed how Japanese reacted to Fukushima's nuclear disaster? You'd have the exact same reaction to a nuclear disaster, if not worse by an order of magnitude, in Seoul South Korea.

>>2905832
Deterrence. They realize they will get destroyed if they launch a nuke, but they also understand that the USA will not attack them if they can kill millions of Americans/Japanese.

>>2905864
He teaches at Georgetown and George Washington. Quite an interesting guy, but I consider his views sorely outdated.

>>2905884
China barely utilizes sheer brutality anymore. The nation has far more sophisticated and effective means nowadays.

>>2905896
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-14/morgan-stanley-says-china-to-avoid-bank-shock-reach-high-income
>"With a starting point of lower debt, (China’s debt to GDP today is where Japan’s was in 1980) and per capita levels (China’s per capita GDP (PPP) today is where Japan’s was in the mid-80s)," the analysts wrote. "By not allowing for a sharp appreciation of its currency as Japan did after the Plaza Accord, China today is arguably better positioned to still achieve growth rates that can outpace global growth.

Unlikely. Furthermore, Japan's economic problem wasn't the bubble. It was the aftermath.

>>2908944
Pure death toll isn't the point of terrorism you fucking sperglord.

>>2909198
Speaking of the lost decades. Why did Japan let their currency appreciate after the Asian Financial Crisis? Was it due to American pressure?

Cont*

>>2905900
>They have seriously messed with their currency, and it seems like their bubble is bursting. They are moving quickly to locking down the economy, so they don't crash entirely.

Any source for this? Their currency is in line with the offshore yuan. What bubble? Furthermore, if they have a bubble, where is it bursting? The economy is growing over 6%. That's no "bursting bubble".

The word "bubble" is simply a meme overused by economic illiterates. The USA housing "bubble" wasn't even a bubble. Housing prices in the USA today are higher than their peak. Therefore, there is objectively no reason why the "crash" ever needed to happen in the first place.

Extremely tight Fed policy and financial regulation failures are what ruined the economy. Home prices had been falling for 2 years before the credit crisis.

>>2905901
Over 100,000 protests? Any source for that?
And no, bait meme sources do not work for me.

Every time I visit China, I don't see, hear, or feel any of these mass protests or government resentment or demands for democracy that Westerners always claim is "just a little bit ahead!"

>>2905910
That ratio is meaningless. The USA has a very similar ratio, but that doesn't mean the military couldn't impose martial law on the entire nation if needed.

Why are you forgetting the millions of policemen in China and the USA? The militia? You think the military is the only one who handles domestic disturbances?

These failures by the anons are understandable. Your failure to recognize these facts is questionable to me.

>>2905914
>>2905921
>>2905923
When hundreds of foreign sources claim it, but no one in China does, it is most likely a meme.
There never was a social or political contract between the Chinese government and Chinese people.

And if there is, that contract has clearly shifted from economic gains towards nationalism, security, and environmental improvements.
That has been made abundantly clear in many foreign policy forums.

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>>2909150
>You are simply wrong. Terrorism may not appear to cause many deaths or attacks on an absolute scale, but the overall effect of terrorism since 9/11 has been immense.
Specifically because it's been blown out of proportion by the media and by the governments seeking to take advantage of it.

We had more terrorist attacks in the 80's, and you didn't see nations breaking their laws and altering their constitutions over it. (Maybe because they were mostly white terrorists.)

I guess you're not OP, but if he is indeed a real foreign policy expert, and he's not aware of this simple fact...

>>2909267
>Specifically because it's been blown out of proportion by the media and by the governments seeking to take advantage of it.

Not him, but elaborate on this please.

Because as far as I can tell, the media in both Europe and the U.S are doing all they can to try to defuse the evils of terrorism by keeping their globalist/internationalist agenda going.

They don't like the fact that terrorism keeps happening on European soil because it means people get increasingly anti-immigration, which is the last thing the owners of media conglomerates want.

Cont*

>>2907112
There is nothing in Chinese culture that makes it opposed to liberalism. Take one look at the RoC post-1995. Or look at overseas Chinese communities in Southeast Asia.

>>2907181
The problem with this logic is that you are switching a known quantity for a completely unknown quantity. Sunnis make up 85% of the Islamic world.
Backing Iran would alienate all the partners the USA has made since 1970, not to mention it would drive Israel mad.
Partnership with Russia would alienate Eastern Europe, and they are increasingly influential in the EU. That would likely push Ukraine into the Russian bloc.

>>2908064
Saddam did not pose any serious threat to the USA or her interests. Foreign policy analysts, outside the slowly dying neocon community, still scratch their heads at the 2003 war.

We are just lucky we can do horrible things and get away with it. The Iraq war was a horrible horrible horrible mistake.
So was the protracted war in Afghanistan, and it still is.

>>2908498
Except that isn't true. Even at the height of the Gulf War that wasn't true.

Saudi Arabia and their Gulf friends simply exaggerated the threat to the USA, and neocons bit it hook, line, and sinker.

>>2908599
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. We were never friends with Yeltsin. That's simply incorrect.
We weren't friends with 2000-2004 Putin either. Just because Bush and neocons wanted to rope Putin in does not mean we ever had a substantial partnership. By 2004, with the expansion of NATO, that cooperation was dead.

>>2908735
Simply wrong. The USA and Russia nearly went into a proxy war over Georgia 2008.

>>2908944
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_arising_from_the_September_11_attacks
Furthermore, it directly led to the War in Afghanistan and Iraq. Over $5 trillion in extra US debt.


Fin

>>2905409
Based

>>2909187
The SDF does not work with the Turks. Maybe I am not reading your post correctly.

Also, the Kurds are very much divided on their "supra state". The Iraqi Kurds work with Turkey while the Syrian kurds/radical kurds(PKK) fight Turkey and the SDF kurds try to stay uninvolved.

>>2909106
Sorry to hear that buddy. I'm not exactly perfect either. I just happen to have good parents who can afford to help me out.
I'd just keep plugging away. There's always good options out there, and 7 years of higher education is a serious downer.

>>2909225
American pressure, Japanese neoliberal views, and the fact that the Washington Consensus was very popular in the 90's-early 2000's.

Japan really believed that letting its currency appreciate was the "next economic step in our development". They wanted to be a net creditor nation that specialized in super high tech. It would have worked if they had not made multiple policy mistakes in the 90's and early 2000's.

A great example of this tendency towards policy mistakes in Japan because of foreign economic pressure (Japan debt will crash their economy!!!) is the 2014 tax hike.

The Plaza and Louvre accords were the main causes of their massive capital flows boom in the 80's, and their inability to depreciate in the 90's hurt them even more.

I personally find China/Japan comparisons to be very tiresome. China looks just as similar to South Korea 2000 or Taiwan 1995 as it does to Japan 1985.

>>2909267
Except that terrorist attacks did have huge effects in the past. Do you even know what caused WW1?
Or what about the killing of Kennedy?
Maybe the IRA attacks of the 60's-70's?

These all had significant effects. The media does "blow them out of proportion", but I don't see why that matters. Do you want to censor the entire media when the next 9/11 happens?

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>>2909345
>The SDF does not work with the Turks. Maybe I am not reading your post correctly.

Which part of my post made you think I made this claim? I might be able to explain it more clearly.

>Also, the Kurds are very much divided on their "supra state". The Iraqi Kurds work with Turkey while the Syrian kurds/radical kurds(PKK) fight Turkey and the SDF kurds try to stay uninvolved.

The SDF kurds are very closely linked with the PKK though. They even parade pictures of ocalan. so they're not as neutral as you think

>>2909391
Your post didn't exactly make sense. It seemed to form a double negative. Care to explain further? There wasn't enough context.

The SDF is a semi-politically acceptable front for the Syrian Kurds to expand territory in Syria without the Turks bombing them TOO much. It also helps the USA claim that it is helping "rebels".
Essentially a political front, but that political front mostly keeps the Turks and them from killing each other.

In comparison, PKK, radical kurds, and some Syrian kurds are actively fighting with the Turks and TFSA each day. They are definitely in a different political grouping than the SDF.

Once ISIS is mostly beaten though...

>>2909274
>They don't like the fact that terrorism keeps happening on European soil because it means people get increasingly anti-immigration, which is the last thing the owners of media conglomerates want.
t. Elliot Carver

>>2909433
>>>/wsg/1720665

>>2909100
Thank you for your posts, I am also kinda disturbed by some of the low quality posts of OP, but lack the credentials to do so. OP also seems to like to evade many questions or just answer with vague one-liners

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>>2909267
>Because as far as I can tell, the media in both Europe and the U.S are doing all they can to try to defuse the evils of terrorism
Please, some of the Euro media may be all about #notallmuslims but both they, and the US media (which is considerably less so) spend so many days, weeks, and month analyzing every the terrorist attacks from every angle, even when it harms less than a dozen people, often for so long that they are still talking about the last terrorist attack well after the next one happens.

>>2909345
>Except that terrorist attacks did have huge effects in the past. Do you even know what caused WW1?
>Or what about the killing of Kennedy?
Other than 9/11, have we seen a terrorist attack that'd justify this kind of coverage? Do we need to treat it like the start of WW3, remove basic freedoms, start spying on our people, and go into full lockdown panic mode every time a handful of people die? Do we always have to give the terrorists exactly the attention they are after?

>Maybe the IRA attacks of the 60's-70's?
...and that'd be key to the point. There were four times as many casualties of terrorist attacks in either one of those decades than were killed by terrorist attacks since the 90's, even including 9/11.

And, unless an attack injured more than a hundred folks, or involved someone famous, the IRA terrorist attacks were reported in much the same way as any terrorist attack in the middle east is reported today:

># people killed and # injured in city X, Y is claims responsibility. No suspects in custody at this time.
That was it. None of this doting on it from with hundreds of guest analysts and speakers for days at a time. Outside of the local news of the affected area, not anymore than you needed to know.

The whole point of terrorism is to send a message, and if the media is going to give the terrorists a platform, they are basically complicit, and making terrorism vastly more effective than it ever could be by itself.

>>2909574
Now here's the million dollar question.

How do we make normies stop being fucking idiots?

>>2908498
Nothing threatening the existence of the US, but people don't like having their towers knocked down, or getting nuked.

>>2908427
Geopolitically Russia wants to at least push to carpathians, to have some defensible land.

>>2908456
It seems likely.

Hard to say. Depends on if you are using HDI scale, or based off of what IMF says; HDI scale would put large economies like India and China as developing. Lots of African countries, if they can solve their problems (I'd usually be specific, but they have pretty much every problem), due to their large amount of resources.

>>2908427
I would recommend you read "Prisoners of Geography". It can explain the matter much better than I can.

>>2908609
One of the only reasons they got away with it was 1. The Crimeans were overtly opposed to it, due to a history of good treatment under Russian Empire/USSR before it got transferred to Ukrainian SSR. 2. Ukraine isn't in NATO or EU.

They might carve more land out of Georgia, but NATO is likely to step in if they try to all out overthrow.

>>2908735
I'm very not a neocon. I think Russia is redeemable. We don't have to seek to dominate everyone, just be strong enough that no one will mess with us.

>>2905358
How soon do you predict the collapse of America, China, and Russia?

>>2909100
Considering that, if you are who you say you are, you graduated from a top tier school, go right ahead.

>>2905414
It's always both

>>2908975
Wilson did the right thing to try to stay out of WWI, as there was no real moral reason to join.

>>2909150
Impressive.

I will have to concede on China's economy, I am not as well versed as I would like to be, and your argument seems sound. Would you recommend any books/publications on the matter, as a side question?

Assad teaming up with the Kurds, in order to both fight SDF, ISIS and Turkey, seems somewhat logical.

>>2909198
I was referring to the recent Mischief reef FONOP as if it were an isolated incident, which is perhaps misguided, as Vietnam's views have no changed just because Trump's admin has taken control in the US.

2. Agree with you there, but I'd say that as all levels of education are publically available for free (except private colleges), and Brazil spends a significant amount on it, the two may be tied.

3. Invasion seems unlikely, yes; although there is rumors that they have threatened to bomb NK if they try a nuclear test.

4. I mostly agree here, they wouldn't necessarily need to go to sheer brutality, but if forced, I don't doubt they'd use it. I spent much of my childhood in Asia, and learned a lot about Chinese culture. Pride and Pragmatism seem to rule, even if they seem contradictory to many of my fellow Westerners.

>>2908043
>Partnership with Russia may be possible when/if Putin is gone
Given the demands of the West for certain nations to reach a threshold of liberalism before allowing them to participate in organizations like NATO, and the manner in which Russia is and will continue to be illiberal to serve the Cheka state, I don't think we should be holding our breath.

>>2909923
Taliban and Saddam didn't knock over our towers or nuke us though.

>>2909235
1. Mostly in Real Estate. According to Ma Jun: "Measures should be taken to put a brake on the excessive bubble expansion in the property sector, and we should curb excessive financing into the real estate sector."

China has seen some serious potential mal-investment. I can't find the source currently, but I believe the numbers were that roughly 1/2 of those buying, were allowing themselves to be ripped off, assuming that the prices would go up enough for them to turn a profit. Will do more research into this though.

Aside from this, China has been selling off a lot of their foreign capital reserves, i think they have somewhere between 3 to 4 trillion left.

Moody also downgraded them from AA3 to A1, although that isn't exactly earthshattering.

>>2909235
China has 1.5 Million police, about 2.3 million soldiers. At circa 3.8 Million, vs a total population of about 1.4 Billion.

Us has a about 1.1 Million police, and about

>>2910021
This is a pet peeve of mine.

People treating the War in Afghanistan and the War in Iraq as the same thing.

If somebody kills several thousand of your citizens, and a foreign government refuses to turn them over, that's a 100% reasonable casus belli.

>>2910038
Woops, meant to finish this; US has about 2.1 million soldiers. Thats about 3.2 Million vs 300 Million. Overall the US has much better odds, based on sheer numbers.

>>2909281
Oh I agree, going in was a mistake, even if we thought we had solid reasoning, or at least Bush did.

>>2910004
It should be noted that non-european(ish) countries are not allowed to join.

Russia is unlikely to change their situation, to be sure.

What would happen if 30 or so people sucsessfully invaded Tuvalu?

>>2910039
So should USA have invaded Pakistan like we did Afghanistan as opposed to just sending a team of marines in there? The Pakistani government knew where Bin Laden was hiding after all.

>>2910064
Like every pisshole country in the south pacific has a defense pact with either Australia, the United Kingdom, or the the United States.

Also, they have the precious .tv country domain, and they lease it out, so a bunch of those shitty products Billy Mays used to sell will probably call their guy in Washington.

>>2910067
Very different circumstances; Pakistan was of interest to China, because they were rivals with India (even though Pakistan is hostile to China to some degree), Russia because they want a warm water port, and USA because they were strategic allies.

Afghanistan wasn't of interest to Russia, as they ruled it wasn't worth it, China didn't have belt and road ambitions, or at least didn't show it. US was invading it.

>>2905358
>foreign policy scholar
>doesn't have a degree in foreign policy

:^]

I should take a pic of my old student ID and proclaim that I'm a history scholar

>>2910064
Tuvalu is buddies with: New Zealand, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the United States of America, the United Kingdom and the European Union. All of which could beat up on any 30 men.

>>2910122
How do we go about instigating a nuclear war between India and Pakistan?

>>2910134
I'm a grad student, working on my degree.

>>2910141
I don't think anyone wants that.

>>2910153
I do.

>>2910150
So you don't actually have any knowledge in foreign policy. You're still working on it.

What's the likely-hood of another civil war breaking out in the US, and what would go down?

>>2910157
I do have knowledge on the subject. Just not a degree saying I have knowledge on the subject.

>>2909235
>That ratio is meaningless. The USA has a very similar ratio, but that doesn't mean the military couldn't impose martial law on the entire nation if needed.
No they can't.
>BUT MUH MILLION
Around 100k of them are combat troops, total. That's it. If none of them defect, and nobody decides to fight except for gun owners, and only 10% of them decide to fight, There'd be a force of 5.5 million men opposing them. Even with rear echelon troops pressed into service, the military would be fucking horrendously outnumbered and unable to cope with the resulting insurgency, especially given the high proportion of veterans among that demographic.
>Why are you forgetting the millions of policemen in China and the USA?
Police in the US are absolutely worthless in a fight. I shoot more in two hours on any given saturday than most police officers are required to shoot in a year. The overwhelming majority of cops spend their time eating snacks, jacking off, giving people tickets, being annoying, and filling out paperwork.

>>2910150
than stop calling yourself Dr. in your trip. It's very deceiving and pretentious

>>2905785
I think it will occur if a high ranking Communist party official is seriously accused of having raped or killed a young woman. Think of the Shaoguan Incident but imagine a governor's residence under attack.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaoguan_incident