Ask a foreign policy scholar anything

>>2877988
Will Mongolia ever rise to become a threat to the world again?

>>2877988
China and Best Korea

>>>/pol/

>>2877988
Will there be another war in the balkans?

>>2877995
Unlikely. Unless they get another leader like Ghengis khan, they have no chance. While they do have some mineral resources, they are trapped between two Great powers. It's unlikely that they will be able to expand into either of them, unless they fight each other or the US invades one of them.

>>2877988
Where will the next full out war in sub saharan Africa happen? What is your favorite sub saharan african nation and why is it Rwanda?

>>2878000
Tense relationship currently. Neither China nor North Korea has any kind of love towards each other; unlike the US and most of its allies. Consider the US and the USSR during WW2. Almost immediately after we told them to get lost. North Korea is a helpful thorn in the US' side, and it forces the US to either ignore North Korea, or worth with China.

China will ditch them the second they stop becoming useful, or if North Korea tries to become truly independant.

>>2877988
Would Germany have won WW2 if you were Führer with your present day knowledge?

>>2878011
Probably. I have an almost perfect memory, and have studied WW2 immensely, due to it being a turning point in the foreign policy of pretty much everyone.

>>2878002
No, this thread is better here

>>2878003
Depends. Ethnic tension is still strong; however all of the Balkans joining one organization, be it the EU (although it is a terrible group), or NATO, may delay the conflicts, or stop them altogether.

The chance of the balkans uniting to fight against islam is also possible.

>>2877988
How do you settle the Crimea dispute and the Palestine/ Israel dispute?

Is an invasion of Finland/insurgent campaign in the interests of Russian Federation and if so, why? Coukd they be successful?

Canada superpower when?

>>2878009
Difficult question; The entire continent is a powder keg, considering the lack of any kind of correlation between ethnicities and states. if I had to make a prediction however, I would predict in Sudan. A massive civil war is somewhat likely from Sudan and South Sudan, and the chances of either of them swooping in to try and reclaim what little land they can is high.

My favorite sub-saharan nation was Rhodesia. None shall ever come near it.

>>2878034
>My favorite sub-saharan nation was Rhodesia.
Why?

>>2878033
Long answer? Never.
Not only are they right next to the worlds leading Hyperpower, they have few strategic resources that will matter in the modern age. Almost no rare earth elements (of which the US has almost all, and can get the rest from friendly states).

Small population, unusable land.

Africa, if united, will become a superpower by the 2200s at the very latest, because of its sheer amount of size and resources.

Canada won't. From a power perspective, your best shot is to ask the good ol' union for statehood.

>>2878014
What would you have done?

>>2878031
Very much so. For the same reason as the first one; a lot of major cities are very close to Finland. Due to Russia having no real defensible positions (due to Northern European Plain), they work on a defense in depth geopolitical strategy.

As to who will win? Hard question. Finland has good relations with NATO, and may join NATO sometime this decade, or the next. Russia will never attack a NATO member, the US would destroy them. Russia knows this.

Even if Finland doesn't join NATO, the threat of them being so friendly with NATO will terrify Putin enough to back off, for the time being.

>>2878030
Crimean dispute is a matter of Geopolitics; as long as Russia is assured of its ability to place ships in the Black Sea, it doesn't matter to it if it physically owns the land. A panama-canal esque lease may work, but Russia is unlikely to give it up without a fight, or serious promises.

Palestine/Israel is much more difficult, as it is geopolitical, and ethnic, and religious. The only real path would be for Israel to abandon settlements, and for Jerusalem to be jointly possessed, like some Islands are.

>>2878044
From what starting point am I beginning? 1919 or 1932?

>>2878050
I read somewhere that generally an attacker should need 3:1 advantage in material and manpower. Latest Finland's active reserve stats are at 300 000 ready to go and fight for freedoms. Do you think Putin or Medvedev would be willing to commit a million men for negligible gain of land that is inhabited by Russian hating nationalists?

>>2878060
1933.

>>2878038
Simply put, turning over control of the government to natives, without giving them a few generations of actually getting education, is a really stupid decision. Rhodesia rejected that decision, but was conquered while the UN watched and laughed. Now look at Zimbabwe, their succesor. They hit inflation rates in the Sextillion percentages before they finally gave up on their currency.

What would it take for the South to rise again?

>>2878066
Gone through with the enabling act. After seizing power, in 1934, I would immediately proclaim that the German people of the other states were being oppressed. After having done this I would begin to seize some states, little by little. Military force would never be used, or at least none traceable to me. I would warn Japan not to do pearl harbor.

Form Molotov-Ribbentrov. I wouldn't break it before I pushed through Turkey (Hitler never did that), into India, and beyond. Once linked up with Japan, I would push deep into Africa. Now with an Afro-Eurasian empire, I would control much of the worlds population and resources.

I would reassure the US that I was only fighting a necessary war, and that I had no intentions of keeping all but the necessary land, to protect Germans.

Assuming that I have ambitions to kill the Jews, I would offer intelligent jews the ability to stay and be protected, much like I did to my officer who commended me during WW1.

Holocaust of inferior races would be done after the war, as that sucked up resources that were desperately needed.

Shall I continue?

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Will Afghanistan ever recover in our lifetimes? Will it ever, or is Ariana gone for good? By recover I mean get back to or better than how it was before April 28, 1978.

Oh, and will the middle east ever see the fall of islam an renaissance of older religions such as zoroastrianism?

>>2877988
Have the United States interventions during the cold war and after been to the benefit of the average American citizen?

>>2878074
Depends. The US is very fickle in terms of who wants what. If current trends stay on, the North's population will continue to disarm itself, and become more degenerate.

The most likely scenarios is that the South is continually abused by a Obama like president, who tries to litigate from the pen.

Another possibility is simply that the South will attempt to seize power, as it views the North as weak and unable to rule.

>>2878082
Oh and one more question, do you think the poorer central asian post soviet states (Tajikistan being one that comes to mind) will eventually be as advanced as European/Western countries are now? How long will it take?

>>2878082
Maybe, maybe not. A lot of it has to due with America's many geopolitical rivals. There has been no confirmation that China is arming terrorists, but its very possible. Russia has been, so has Iran and North Korea.

If those rebels can be defeated, and afghanistan defended by the US, then it has a chance of becoming a haven like never before.

This one depends on a lot. Islam is deeply rooted, and will likely take a war, or a vastly more popular religion taking over to happen. The old middle east is likely dead. A strong leader can potentially revive it, but with so many regional rivals, its unlikely.

>>2878084
Yes. The maintaining of US dominance is the prime goal of wars, alongside spreading democracy.

Many of the actions established friendly states, which still like us. One of the problems with the current interventionism is that our presidents seem to pull out of any protracted conflict.

Overthrowing someone only to leave a power vacuum, and then leave, should be considered an indicator of autism. Leaving troops behind is the way to go. In some conflicts it will go better than others; consider Afghanistan, we have been there for a massive amount of time, but we have made progress.

Compare it to the occupation of Japan? We are doing really bad by comparison.

Basically presidents need to stick to their guns, and everything will end up much better, but yes, by and large, the interventions have been good.

>>2878094
>well versed neocon
Is this Ben Shapiro I am talking to?

>>2878077
How would you retake South Korea if you were Kim Il Sung?

>>2878089
Depends a lot. Right now the states are being fought over between the US, Russia and China. The states that can afford to flirt with all sides and stay independant will benefit enormously.

Almost all sides will benefit if China's Belt and Road initiative comes to pass, although China still benefits much more.

Some of the states are oil rich, some arent. Unfortunately for the aren't category, they usually don't have much land. At some point in history, presumably by earliest 2200s, and latest 2500's, Humans will by and large stop building skyscrapers up, and will spread them out. At this point countries with giant lands will be good, if they already have some wealth to build with.

Countries like Tajikistan might end up doing fairly well as a trade hub, and if it plays the right cards, might get protection from the US, at which point it will no longer need to defend itself as much. Ethnic tensions, Islam and corrupt governments are the largest stumbling blocks, but if they can be overcome, you lot have a bright future.

>>2878106
Do You think that certain conflicts never had an ability to be worth the cost. Specifically would the time effort that it takes to subdue and turn Afghanistan into a stable friendly nation be worth the many years of military intervention and economic aid needed.

>>2878113
I am hardly a Neocon. I don't believe that the US is in someway obligated to fight abroad. I know for a fact that if the US inteligently chooses it's battles, it can bring more countries into its sphere. The US is already allied to almost a fourth of the world. At some point small countries already dependent on the US, such as Lithuania (which recently requested permanent military presence from the US interestingly enough), will seek protectorate-ship, and potentially statehood. It's a longterm investment on a massive scale.

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>>2878123
>Islam as one of the largest stumbling blocks
Don't worry, Rahmon's got it covered

>>2878128
It depends on a lot. If we could get Russia and Iran to fuck off, definitely. The problem with Afghanistan is that we cannot leave, but its a shitty place to be.

Afghanistan will, if under US control, recover, and will over time repay the US, wether it be through being a loyal "vote-bitch" as some of my colleagues are fond of referring many of the US' allies as, or through trade.

>>2878136
True, isn't Afghanistan also extremely valuable in terms of geographical positioning? The Great Game and USSR's quest for a warm water port are two things that come to mind

>>2878119
Make token moves toward democracy, claim I was trying to move out of the Commies sphere. The US would drown me in money like I was a good stripper, and I would then make allegations that South Korea was corrupt/not a real democracy. I would escalate the situation under pretense of innocence, as if they were targeting me. I would finally say enough at some point, and invade, hopefully with US assistance, but I would be capable of fighting them if the US and UN (which is pretty much the US' bitch) stayed out of it.

>>2878146
Strategically it is fucking gold; the graveyard of empires. You're dicked if you try to get through it as an invader.

The problem is, strategical value isn't neccesary for its location. If China tries to attack, they won't push into Afghanistan, because there is fuck all for them there, and its hard to do. Same with Russia.

Russia is likely to try and get their warm water port from Pakistan, using China as a middle man.

>>2878133
I swear I had nothing to do with that. Can't prove anything.

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>>2878157
Pic
>>2878162
What?

>>2878165
Absolutely nothing.

Anyone else have questions?

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>>2878162
>>2878179
The fuck does this mean?

>>2878182
When will Pax Americana end?

>>2878185
Nothing Mr. Habsburg of Alabama.

>>2878186
Again, depends on a lot. Under Trump its more likely to stay, as a re-assertment of power is underway. China is terrified of him, the same of Russia. ISIS is legitimately autistic, so they wont care.

If we get Trump like strong characters, who back a strong military, It could last a very long time.

If we get another Obama, it could be over within his or her terms.

>>2878198
Thanks so much for your time. Last question, because I've asked about eight so far and it's 2:30AM. Will Europe ever see another golden age? They had it going pretty well for them from the 1500s up until the emergence of the USSR/USA after WWII. If not Europe, who will be next?

Why does the west like muzzie dick so much?

>>2877988
Is there any hope for the balkans?

>>2877988
why do you assume that usa would last as a superpower until 2200's, 2500's? how long is it until it [usa] turns into some sort of authoritarian dictatorship? and if you think it will never happen in the states, why do you think that?

>>2878203
No problem, I enjoy sharing my knowledge and insight. Its 1:30 here btw.

Europe... its unlikely. Nothing to the extent they had with the empires. The problem mostly lies in the singularity I outlined above, in which skyscrapers will dominate land. At this point whoever had the most land can push out fastest.

Africa is a prime candidate for a golden age, if they can get control of the issues facing them (I can't be fucked to list them, considering its pretty much everything). Lots of land, people and resources.

The sheer timeframe is a problem; it would take at least 20 years for Europe to recover, assuming it started deporting immigrants this very second, and started fixing its shit. With that time frame they have a maximum of 400 years, and a lower estimate of about 100 years to have a golden age. So even if they do, it won't last long.

>>2878207
Yes. The US may be a force of unity, either through NATO, or sheer intimidation, basically "If you mess with someone else, I will literally rape you".

Also the threat of islam may unify them again. Don't give up hope.

Why are neoconservatives and liberal internationalists so full of shit?

>>2878208
Because, ever single international power structure revolves around the US.

UN is America's bitch. By having 1/4 of the world as allies and counting, its extremely unlikely any measure that would directly harm the US would ever pass.

Not to mention that US effectively is 3/5 of the Permanent security council, and almost all temporary members of the security council are in the US sphere of influence.

US leads NATO, simple enough.

Everything revolves around the US, everything. Unless a president decides to fuck that up and ditch everything, we cannot lose for at least 500 years. China is the only threat, and even then it will be many decades before they can hope to stand up to us. At that point we will likely have technologically progressed so much that any advantage they manage to gain is moot.

US leads in economy, technology, etc. US' full spectrum dominance effectively makes us too big to fail, unless we try to, or have a shitty president.

Chances of a dictatorship are low, because it is very unlikely that a dictator wouldn't be immediately deposed. The states have incredible firepower. The citizens of Texas alone have firepower to rival Germany. If any true dictator comes, the states will try and fight, and will likely win.

>>2878235
Their theories are reliant upon the assumption that things should be done purely for moral reasoning, however their logic is unequal in its moral scale; losing lives for fuck all gain is immoral. Until they can understand this, they will always fail.

>>2878240
So why do these two schools of thought have so much influence in guiding our foreign policy?

And how did Israel gain such a stranglehold on setting our foreign policy as well?

>>2877988
If a World War will happen, would it happen due to events in SEA or MENA?

>>2878236
why do you assume that states will fight against a dictator? are you talking of firepower in terms of gun ownership or legislative means or territorial troops or whatever the states have at their disposal? arent militia's more aligned through their world view with likeminded americans elsewhere rather than their state first and foremost. what is there to stop some other trump-like president [or trump himself] to grab power in a erdogan-type way?

>>2878245
For the same reason in my youth I was a commie, it feels good. It feels great to preach down to realists and professionals that there is a high moral standard. Many of the common people do not follow world events, do not care about what happens abroad, because there is no threat to their existence. I have a friend from Lithuania. I met his extended family briefly, and they knew more of the Russian situation than I did, which is no small feat.

Americans do not care anymore. A strong enemy may be needed to unify america, and make them care.

Israel does not have a stranglehold, for the same reason Japan doesn't. Israel is by and large subservient to the US' international goals, and as such we protect them from getting fucked by the UN.

The root of the issue starts in the Six Days war. The Soviets, buddies with the Egyptians, take advantage of the enmity of the arabs and jews to cause a proxy war. Israel RKO's everyone, to the surprise of many.

The enmity has not faded. For this reason the US defends Israel from Arabs, for the reasons above.

In light of Merkel's recent comments, is Germany the dominant superpower of Europe currently?

>>2878247
Asia would likely never end in World war. Neither China nor North Korea has the influence and friends for them to make it a world war, although the US might pull in a huge amount of countries.

In Middle east the situation is slightly different. Russia, Iran and Syria, prime targets for US attack, are all allies of convenience. North Korea may join in to help Iran. Either way, Not a lot of muscle their side, and not really a two way world war.

>>2878257
I assume so, because it is the nature of America, despite being willing to give up most freedoms, there is a point at which America will simply tell people to fuck off. I'm talking about a mixture of the two.

As for aligned, many militias have a world view yes, but this world view tends to be either the majority or minority opinion of said state, so it would end up being much the same.

Someone would shoot his ass. The power structure of the US military would not allow for an Erdogan type move.

>>2878265
Is peace in the Middle East possible? or is it just an optimistic pipe dream?

>>2878263
No. By far. For one, the only superpower in existence as of now is the US (which is also a hyperpower).

Germany is a great power, but is very military weak in the grand scheme of things. It has no true sphere of influence, sharing only a subordinate sphere to the US.

England or France is the prime great power currently, as both have allies reaching beyond the EU/NATO, strong militaries, and of course, special relationships with America.

>>2878272
i think you are underestimating populists and damagogues

Do you assume trump will lead to the end of American hegemony?

>>2878278
Depends (I know I say this a lot, but it really does here).

The problem with Islam is it will never work with Democracy. Ethnic conflict is a large problem due to arbitrary borders. A massive restructuring of the Middle east may work, but its unlikely anyone would sit at the table unless the US threatened to invade them.

>>2878282
No. Far from it. It by and large doesn't matter if the leaders of our allies think we are nice people, or that Trump is a nice person. His unpredictability alone terrifies people, especially the Chinese.

As said by Netanyahu, America is back, back to leading from the front. Obama endangered the US hegemony by intentionally handing power over to non-allies, or shitty allies.

Your thoughts on NK-US tensions?

>>2878281
Hardly. The Media would not allow for any right winged dictatorship, and the left would not need to declare one, or even fit every criteria to push their agendas.

Effective dictatorships can only be done with full or strong control of the media.

>>2878292
Complicated issue. North Korea will never give up its Nukes, as it views it as the only way it can survive. A careful application of threat and reward may temporarily stop them, but any attempts to get rid of what they already have are pretty much doomed to fail.

Unless we can change their perspective so they don't see nukes as their only option, negotiations will never stop them.

>>2878285
What are you supposed to know about islam lmao?

>>2878306
Know? I'm presuming you mean do. The problem is near nothing can be done. Any attempt to invade and forcibly convert the populace would be met with heavy resistance by everyone, and could, by itself, lead to the end of Unipolar world of US dominance.

The only hope is that they convert, or else reform. Neither is likely.

>>2878301
If China decides that North Korea is a liability rather than an asset how does that impact the situation?

>>2878320
That seems to be happening currently; China has actually started following UN sanctions against them, has warned them that any nuclear test will result in China bombing them, etc.

North Korea has stretched its leash too far, both in its relationship with China, and the world. It no longer listens to China, and seems hellbent on pissing off every Great or Regional power nearby it.

>>2878320
Sorry, I didn't really answer the question; China will work with the US to try and fix the issues. It's unlikely they will truly want to fix the issues, unless North Korea steps seriously out of line, such as a nuclear test, or hitting Japan with a conventional test.

TL;DR China will act nice while keeping its options open to be buddies with North Korea at a later date, when it becomes convenient for them.

>>2878325
So why is Kim Jung Un acting like that?
Surely he knows he's alienating every country around him

>>2878332
He's insane, simply put. He is terrified of the US taking away his Godhood. North Korea's conventional forces are utter trash. In order to survive he lashes out.

No one wants a nuclear war, so they let him be a dumb teen all he wants.

I'm getting tired now, its about 2:30 here. I'm going to go to bed now, but I'll start another thread tommorow if y'all have anymore questions. For further contact, call me Dr. Johnson.

>>2878338
How likely is it that the upperclass norks grow tired of their godkings antics and kill him in order to install a totalitarian-as-before government that retains most of its former policies but acts more predictable and with stability in mind?

What will happen to Indochina?
Might they clash with their muslim neighboors should overpopulation+loss of coast make their people unstable?
Is vassalisation by China inevitable?

>>2878348
Aw oke.
Good night then.

>>2878106
Lol

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>>2878198
>Under Trump its more likely to stay, as a re-assertment of power is underway. China is terrified of him,
AHAHAHAAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHAHAHAHHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAAAAAAHH

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>>2878289
This /pol/ delusion is hilarious.

It's been a few months and you think you can summarize the geopolitical effect of Trump for the next few decades.

>>2877988
Do you guys speak english? I'm reading mediterranean anarchy, interstate war, and the rise of rome and the first chapter made my head hurt.

Actual question: the book is written from a realist perspective. Can you give a brief description of the alternatives to realism?

>>2878548
Not to say the OP's comments aren't of interest, but insolent fortune telling and 'ask me anything' stuff are both common reddit traits.

what a pathetic LARP thread

>>2878123
What makes you think countries will go wide instead of tall?

>>2877988
How would you define war?

>>2878272
i think you are underestimating populists and demagogues

>>2878133
Sounds like the most traditional Muslim country in the world.

>>2878350
Unlikely. The North Koreans routinely purge them.

Indochina is likely to fall to Chinese influence unless the US tries to fight them for it; Japan might carve out a subservient sphere.

Indochina is a powderkeg regardless of overpopulation and loss of coast, but both will speed any conflict.

Unless the US tries to fight them, yes.

I am presuming you mean realism as foreign relations theory;

Lots of others are available, best known is Idealism, basically that states should attempt to force their beliefs on others, in order to make the world more stable.

>>2878634
I don't use reddit; Foreign Relations amounts to educated guesses. I have rarely been wrong about my predictions, but any far reaching one has a lot of capacity to change.

>>2878683
At some point they will have to; basically the point at which it becomes economically ineffective to build up any more. Consider that constructions of buildings that become the new tallest are rare, as the industrial race is no longer on.

>>2878077
So Putin tactics?

>>2878701
I think Clausewitz puts it best "the continuation of diplomacy by other means".

>>2879635
Putin isn't nearly as skillful at hiding them, or at least the modern world is more aware. The West has formed a cancerous unspoken agreement not to fight Russia unless they push in too deep.

>>2877988
when will can america fuck over the saudis?

>>2878548
I hope you realize foreign policy is literally what you said.

Any conflicts in Europe in the future?

>>2879639
Mess up the oil prices. I've advocated for more pipelines from Canada, alongside the building up of oil derricks in the US, so that we don't need the Saudis.

>>2879645
Depends on the definition of conflict you are using; Hungary and Poland are conflicting with the EU currently, and may leave soon.

Russia is being Russia and attempting to take over Eastern Europe.

Muslims are being Muslims and attempting to take over everything.

Lots of potential for war. Most likely will be proxy wars between Russia and the US/NATO, or else a war between Muslim and European states.

>>2879656
I can't see Poland leave the EU, they benefit too much from it and Russia is just around the corner.

On the other hand i can easily imagine Russia trying to start shit in a powderkeg like Balkans.

>>2879683
Poland will leave if the EU tries to force them to take migrants. EU isn't much defensively, and Poland and all of its neighbors are in NATO.

Russia would love to reclaim their balkan sphere, which is one of the reasons why getting Montenegro in NATO is significant.

>>2877988
British Empire 2: Imperila Boogaloo when?

>>2879700
British Empire is unlikely, the chance of any threat to all of the commonwealth that would force them to join together again is very low.

For military conquest, the UK could probably take back most of its land, but would need US help for some of the harder areas.

>>2879696
Yeah but without EU markets Russia may try to establish economic influence over Poland.

As for Balkans, there are still unresolved disputes around Kosovo and Bosnia and Russia will certainly try to capitalize on that.

>>2879715
Russia will try and capitalize on pretty much anything.

Russia's economic influence over Poland mostly has to do with oil, and energy. Unless the EU decides to slap Poland with a large tariff, it's unlikely the trade situation will change that much.

By scholar I assume you mean grad student. You published yet?

Isn't academia the worst? I was a candidate and dropped it for a real job after being told to blanket pass Chinese students paying full price even if they couldn't speak English. We also were a top 10 school on the overall rankings and paid full-time adjuncts $38,000 a year. Whew.

>>2879733
You would be correct; No I am not. I am writing a book on the ideal international relations that the US would have with all the states, and the ways to achieve this.

Yep. Even FR gets hit by affirmative action unfortunately. Or at least some money-intuitive version of it.

Can the Muslim world ever recover and normalize in our lifetime?

>>2879752
If ISIS, and other terrorist groups like it, can be finished quickly by straightforward military action, yes. The problem is it is much more likely they will dig in to cities (as some parts of it already are), forcing the US to hurt civilians. They will go out of their way to incite violence between Muslims and the US.

It's possible, but unlikely.

How do you see the South China Sea dispute, particularly island building in the Scarborough Shoal and Spratly Islands, playing out?

Has the "Asia Pivot" been a success?

How are China expanding in Africa? Have they been successful?

Do you see disunity between NATO members in the future i.e. contention over free-riding and lack of burden sharing perception?

Can the US and Russia cooperate in Syria and Iraq, or are there interests too divergent?

Will the US be able to withdraw from the Middle East in the future?

As Pakistan is increasingly becoming incorporated into the Chinese sphere of influence, will India gravitate towards the US despite its longstanding friendship with the USSR/Russia?

>>2879781
I think that China is going to back off on continuing to build up their islands, in the face of a strong US presence, but they are unlikely to give them up without serious threat or incentive.

No. It was based on a presumption that the US was misallocating resources. This new attention to China, without any threat of reprisal, made them bolder.

Mostly with trade and investment. They have given huge sums of money to East Asia. They have been somewhat successful, but their long term plan will likely involve bringing these countries into their sphere politically, most likely for UN Votes.

Yes. I think that Trump will force the hand of the free-riders, and they will either leave or agree to pay more. With Russia breathing down their necks, leaving would be suicide, so there would have to be a serious fuck up for that to happen.

I'd say they can cooperate somewhat, but there interests are very different. Russia wants access to the Mediterranean, which Turkey and Greece block them from having, due to their control of the Bosphorus and Aegean. The US wants to add stability. Russia doesn't care about stability as long as instability benefits them.

Depends on a lot; if the countries become dependant on the US to defend them, like Europe has, its likely we will be stuck there forever. If Iran and Russia keep funding problems, same thing.

Difficult question; I'd say that Pakistan is the primary one being fought over, due to Russia wanting a warm water port, the US wanting to keep its ally for intel purposes, and China wanting money. India is likely to go to one of whichever two don't win that fight. If Belt and Road succeeds, its likely Pakistan will fall to China, and India will go to the US. India's relationship with the UK may help it to be friends with the US.

What's the US policy regarding South America?

Any conflicts in South America in the future?

Could Brazil see any sort of stability in the future that could allow them to capitalize on their economic resources and become a Latin American Hegemon?
Are there any other Latin American nations that could possibly become real regional powers?

>>2877988
Will Russia ally with the US in order to contain Chinese influence in Central Asia?

It changes depending on the admin.

For a long time during the cold war they were diplomatically ignored, but invaded whenever they got too commie.

Nowadays they aren't as ignored, but as a whole they aren't very relevant. Most of the US' current policy is being friends, without much effort behind it.

>>2879906
Between states? Nothing big. Some ethnic tension, some hatred, but nothing that large.

Biggest problem are rebels, and US and others are working to kill them off.

>>2879970
Probably not. Russia views the US as a bigger Geopolitical rival than China could ever be.

>>2879946
Depends on a lot; Venezuela would be perfectly suited to become a real regional power, but socialism fucked that up.

Brazil is a good candidate to, but two back to back corrupt presidents should give an idea of how fucked their system is.

They have lots of potential, but government fucks it up.

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>>2878165

>this pic

Just because a region is at a crossroad doesn't mean that it's a graveyard. We get it, Afghanistan is where several European empires got curb stomped so it's forever etched into the Western psyche as a "no-go" zone but plenty of regional empires have controlled Afghanistan with little to no problem.

>this entire thread
I have a B.A. in IR and this is just basic shit you learn from reading the news + knowing some history with some wishful thinking sprinkled in.

And I thought that /ck/ was the board that knew the least about its topic.

>>2880621
>And I thought that /ck/ was the board that knew the least about its topic.
That'd be /sci/, actually.

>>2880644
Dude, there are constantly terrible threads on /ck/

>i have bread eggs kethup and mustard can you guys give me a recipie to make I never cook
>al/ck/ threads (which are great but not cooking and food)
>fast food threads
>meme food threads
>one thread about actual cooking and the guy always has his disgusting cat on his counter touching his food

>>2878216
>Also the threat of islam may unify them again.
What about the Bosniaks

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>>2880662
/ck/ knows all about cooking, just not of food

>>2878025
>The chance of the balkans uniting to fight against islam is also possible.
that is bullshit

albanians are muslim
bosniaks are muslim
pomaks are muslim
bulgarian turks are muslim

if the balkans "unite against islam" that's going to lead to more violence if anything, the only conflict this could potentially solve is the croatian-serbian one which isn't as much of an issue any more anyway.

>>2879631
Not the anon you replied to, but just out of interest can you give examples of some predictions you've personally made that have and have not come true?

>>2881232
Also, what personal prediction are you most proud of accurately making?

>>2879752
Only if the global economy allows for it....the economy in the region would have to allow for it aswell, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Egypt will have to take charge and lead the way.....so no

How was the GRE? I'm going to be taking it in the following months and I'm nervous I won't be able to get a 70th percentile score.

>>2879636
Yeah bruh. You're definitely a doctor.

>>2878634
He is autistic, if anything.

>>2879643
No. No it is not. Foreign policy is not a retroactive analysis of previous foreign policies and their likely effect on the future.

The ANALYSIS of foreign policy is what you meant to write, I hope.

>>2878077
Why even continue with a Holocaust?

>>2877988
Where did you study? Are you studying now? I am hoping to work for the State Department, and I just finished up my freshman year of college. Do you have any recommendations? What are the best languages to learn?

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What do you think of the possibility of a nuclear war between Russia and the USA? Not in the tactical sense, I mean in the MAD sense.
How far is the USA from acquiring a neutralizing first strike against Russia? And if the US did somehow completely obliterate Russia in a tactical first strike, how would China react? Also since I'm an otaku am concerned with NK's threat to Tokyo. Do you think NK's ballistic missiles can get through THAAD, Aegis and Patriot? Would they target Tokyo? Could China and Russia target Tokyo?