Would WW I still happen if Ferdinand did not get assassinate ?

>>1990999
Yes, it would be just something else
Everyone was ready for an inevitable war

>>1990999
Most certainly. Tension needed an outlet.

>>1990999
O. Nice numbers. Impressive. Too bad you wasted them on a "what if X".

>>1990999
Yes. Kill wasnt main reason.

>>1990999
The assassination didn't matter nearly as much as Russian intervention that followed.

>>1990999
No but an other war would propably happened
In the end it doesn't even matter because "what if" is just bullshit and helps nobody

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More important question
there any way that the central powers could have won the war?

>>1991026
Should've avoided the Sick Man of Europe

>>1991026
Waiting while German economics less than 50% of world one.

Actual answer: We literally cannot know.

Guess answer: Quite possibly? Germany was itching for one against Russia. Austria was itching for one against Serbia.

BUT... the previous 20 odd years have seen LOADS of pretty heated and escalated situations and crises, none of which turned into great power warfare.

I am not a fan of the "inevitable" train of thought to say the least. The situation was extremely precarious, yes, with major players actively pushing for war. But it still took several catalysts and/or previous crises had not resulted in war.

>>1991026
of course
magical alien space bats

>>1991026
Easily

Original Schliffen plan called for a bunch more men on the french front, but Moltke listened to wimpy-ass east prussians and moved men to the eastern front

If the original schliffen plan was used, Germany would've won the battle of the marne, which was one of the closest battles in history. If they had won the battle of the marne, France would've been overrun.

"But anon, the Russkis can invade from the east then!"
German defences were mostly likely good enough to hold the russians, and superior infrastructure of Germany can bring men faster back to the east after beating France to plug up the hole. Once the Russians are stopped it's only a matter of time.

>>1991106
how do you solve the dreadful supply issues the germans had historically during marne though? you only put even more strain on the already insufficient and broken logistical chain

>>1991106
>attle of the marne
Batlle of the meme?

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>>1990999
Germany really really wanted a big war, so probably

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>>1991177
>Instead of offering France an inducement to stay neutral, the German government sent her an ultimatum at the same time as the ultimatum to Russia. They asked France to reply within eighteen hours whether she would stay neutral in a Russo-German war, and added that if she did Germany would “demand as guarantee of neutrality the handing over to us of the fortresses of Toul and Verdun which we shall occupy and restore after the war is over”—in other words, the handing over of the key to the French door.

>>1990999
Thats a tough answer actually, before the assassination there was plenty of crises that just sorta blew over, maybe if the assassination didn't happen the great powers would've had more time to organize such as

germany
>holy shit guys our invasion plan is incredibly retarded and could go horribly wrong

UK
>holy shit guys our professional army won't last a year against the millions of germans

russia
>holy shit guys our soldiers are starving and poorly equipped

only bad thing i can say about france was how out dated the military was at the time but the war was coming

>>1990999
Defiantly.
Maybe Serbia wouldn't be involved for the most part, entering alongside Romania with the promise of territory by the Entente.
Belgium would still get raped tho, that can't be avoided.
But i think that Germany would have a much harder time with the war if it blew up later.
Also, another question would be how much support would Germany gain from Austria.
If Austria wouldn't be as involved, i doubt they'd support Germany as much as Germany supported them. Franz Joseph was pushed to war by Hotzendorf.
And assuming FJ dies in 1916 like he did i think Ferdinand would be harder to sway.