Laughable Predictions of the Future from History

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>BRUH
>ATOMIC CARS
>THEY'RE THE FUTURE

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>>1799063

Humans were and are bad at predicting things.

However some things can be realized will progress because its the nature of the material world we live in.

Moore's law is an example. We may not be able to predict that there will be a strong AI in 25 years, but we will have a pretty good idea at what processing power we will have.

And based on that, we have a hunch you could similitude all the synapses in the human mind at that point on a not too expensive piece of hardware.

So then you have to figure out what happens when we have strong AI.

I think that is the point of the singularity people. Some of them make predictions of what life will be like, but the definition of the singularity is that we cannot predict the future after a certain point.

I would agree as change is exponential, eventually we as biological humans cannot predict the future. We might still exist but we would not be able to predict the future after that point.

>>1799063
Marxism.

>>1799106
Moore's law is about to start breaking down. Strong ai isn't simply a matter of having enough processing power. You don't know wtf you're talking about. Go away.

>>1799063
>Are there idyllic, utopian predictions or attitudes from history that fell flat on their face?

Every single economic forecast produced in a communist state.

>>1799114

>Marxism.

/thread

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>everything in the future will be growth

>>1799200

Remember, even the Romans fell

1000 year Reich

>>1799215

Romans did not have the internet.

Governments may come and go, so unless there is a nuclear war or a sunburst that destroys all the worlds electronics then no one is going to forget how to build shit when they can look it up on their computers or textbooks in case the power goes out.

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>>1799249
>everything in the future will be growth

>>1799249
NASA has data they can't even access because its outdated. A game made in 95 is a abandon ware now. The internet doesn't exist outside servers and you can't run word from classic windows on your computer

>>1799249

Look let's say we have a big ass solar storm or a political situation that destroys all the electronics in the world.

Books will still exist unless there is a world wide luddite government that wants to burn all books, the knowledge to make gunpowder, steam engines, and rebuild electricity will still exist. The worst humans will go back is to the 1850's.

The Roman empire would not have fell if they had guns and rail roads connecting the provinces.

>>1799106
>Moore's law

On the verge of complete irrelevancy.

>>1799319
No one forgot how to make iron or concrete either smarmy faggot. Bronze age collapse and dark ages were a collapse of government not knowledge

>>1799342
civilizations*

>>1799282
yup, digital is less reliable than vellum or papyrus, much less reliable than baked clay.

>>1799063

What the fuck did he even mean by that?

>>1799358
People still existed speaking the language and customs locally in both cases, there just wasn't a strong central government to conduct public works, endeavor centers of learning, and mostly important towards are perception record events

>>1799063
>if we can make an explosive powerful enough, war will stop so soldiers don't get slaughtered pointlessly
>laughingOppenheimers.jpg

>>1799417
half right on that.
disregarding proxy war shit, the west hasn't had a major shooting war against each other since dubya dubya two

>>1799342

China didn't lose its technology when Rome collapse.

Even if the US collapses if Trump wins, it doesn't mean China is going to forget how to build shit.

>>1799407
And those civilizations died because of that.

>>1799461
But who will they copy and steal blueprints from if the US collapses?

>>1799461
>US collapses if Trump wins
Cuck spotted

China is pretty underreported in Western media aside from the foreign policy issues it has with the US in the south china sea so its no surprise people forget about it

>>1799114
>>1799168
Except when we look at history it is just one long class struggle. Capitalism has to disappear one day and the fact that Communism in power inevitably leads to violence and the death of thousands of innocent people doesn't change the fact that dialectial materialism is correct.

>>1799249
Oh wow what a fucking moron.

There are millions of things that could go wrong and lead to a new Dark Age. The fall of the Roman Empire was a collapse of government, not of knowledge.

Things that could cause a new Dark Age in the next 50 years:
Global Pandemic
Nuclear War
Nanorobotic weapons (aka grey goo)
Biowarfare
Chemical warfare
Asteroid Impact
Gamma Ray Burst
Rogue AI rebellion
Hyper Global Warming triggered by thawing methane on the Ocean floor (feedback loop hypothesis)
EMP attacks
Peak Oil makes food extremely expensive

>>1799461
>US collapses if Trump wins

Hillariously enough, US has a much higher chance of collapsing with Hillary in charge considering she's a warhawk hellbent on provoking Russia into war over Syria, which could pretty much literally trigger a nuclear apocalypse. The worst thing Trump has ever done was talking shit.

And I'm not even a Trump voter

>>1799106
>Moore's law
is starting to but up against hard physical limits such as the resolvability of electrons.We'll plateau in less than a decade.

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>>1799063
I remember reading some article from the late 1800s where some guy said that there won't be any future discoveries since everything got already invented, he said this after someone powered up a city with electrical lights.

Also pic related.

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>>1799513

Goddamn your an autist.

Because that is what I just said about the nuclear war.

>>1799513
>EMP attacks
This is a meme on par with nuclear winter, most government and military electronics are already shielded against EMP

>>1799063
Drones are ridiculous.

>>1799063
Mutually assured destruction is not entirely laughable but in today's international conjuncture it is very unlikely.

>>1799586
Why.

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>>1799513
>Rogue AI rebellion
>Grey goo

Neither our AI tech or our nanotechnological expertise is high enough to allow for these.

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>>1799063
enslavement via robot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UO0hkm1Rse8

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>>1799282
>>1799361
That thought creeps up on me on occasion and it really bothers me.
>>1799417
>>1799427
Thanks, threat of mutually assured destruction!

>>1799282
>NASA has data they can't even access because its outdated.
Wasn't ASCII developed specifically to deal with this problem?

Again, even if society collapsed due to politics like the Romans the worse we would would go back to would be the 1850's (after a population reduction).

People would still know how to make gun powdered and steam locomotives.

Also we would know not to make muskets but bolt action rifles with shells.

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>>1799501
>Except when we look at history it is just one long class struggle.
It's actually a bunch of classes in any given society cooperating with each other while grumbling about each other's existence

t. Confucius.

>>1799585
Too bad almost all civvie shit would get fried. You know, the stuff our modern civilization depends on.

>>1799093
Might still be a thing in the extremely distant future.

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>>1799501

>Capitalism has to disappear one day and the fact that Communism in power inevitably leads to violence and the death of thousands of innocent people doesn't change the fact that dialectial materialism is correct.

Marxism is really just secular Christianity. Mein Gott.

Blessed are the meek (and poor), for they will inherit the Earth. Blessed is the Last Judgement/Revolution.

>>1799063
I stole Tesla' patent and I didn't even have the decency to give him any credit.

t. Marconi.

>>1799501
Spengler had a pretty good observation about Marx and his class struggle. What will come about is corporatism / fascism, not horseshit utopias like communism.

>>1799531
>hillary clinton a politician who knows how devastating war is will start a war.

>>1800064
Fascism is just late Capitalism. Jack London pointed the same thing out in The Iron Heel in 1908. They're just trying to delay the inevitable.

>>1799677
If you want to save large amounts of data, it is often desired to format the data in such a way that it takes up the least amount of space. You can't just save everything in ascii.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wavelet_scalar_quantization

>>1799122
>Moore's law is about to start breaking down.

Actually, it shat the bed long ago when they had to push it to some 1.5 years and the current 2+ years.

It's basically a meme at this point since most people know shit about microchip design.

>>1799063
That line is basically why Scientists should stay the fuck out of Humanity.

Rationality and the scientific method can never be applied to predict something as fuck random as history.

>>1800000

>>1799063
it'll be a favela spanning the entire globe

maybe europeans or asians have managed to escape earth until then

>>1799492
>/pol/tards still get baited by this shit

I thought you guys are supposed to like edgy jokes

What is that book, from a Congress member or somesuch, who predicted in 1980s that there would be another military clash between USA and Japan over the Pacific if their economic growth kept continuing?

>>1800313
double edged swords are edgy.

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>>1800176
>muh le inevitability xD

Yeah it's so inevitable literally all the predictions failed.

>>1800157
Why is she pushing for enforcing a no-fly zone in Syria then?

>>1800325
posturing during an election isn't the same thing as actually doing it.
Or do you guys think that trump will give up all those US bases that give it so much power projection because the europeans don't want to pay their dues.

>>1800347
>"Hey guys she's just threatening to trigger WW3 as a way to promote herself, nothing serious xD"

Golly gee faggot that sure made me feel safer!

>>1799063

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memoirs_of_the_Twentieth_Century

>>1799063
See
>Timothy Leary
>Robert Anton Wilson

>>1800157
>Clinton knows how devastating war is
>sociopathically lies about Bosnia and laughed about Gadaffi's death and the chaos that followed

Thank you for correcting the record

>>1800660
>le benghaaaazi meme

Even the republicans don't try to claim that was her fault.

>>1800683
>this autismal and desperate shilling

Where exactly did I mention Benghazi in my post cucky?

I meant the general destabilization Libya went through

>>1800691

We both know you're just repeating memes and couldn't say three sentences about Libya without looking it up.

>>1800694
>gets absolutely BTFO
>has to throw in random bullshit like an absolute madman

I sincerely hope you're doing this for free because if you aren't Hillary's throwing her money away.

What about the fact that it's undergoing a SECOND civil war and is divided into three?

>>1800707

Absolutely btfo how?

>>1800660
Nobody likes Gaddafi.

Gaddafi is one big moral lesson on how not to be a self-alienating dicktard. He pissed off his immediate neighbors, he pissed off the west, he pissed off his fellow Arabs. In the end, nobody wanted to fucking help him when his shitty regime keeled over.

>>1800730
Because you keep putting words in my mouth instead of providing actual arguments, and keep being disproved

>>1800735
He was an evil dickhead, but himself, Saddam and Stalin prove Hobbes right

>>1799063
War is inherently ridiculous.

>>1799093
Self-Driving vehicles, man. They bum me out.

Seen Memes:
-Displace all vehicle operators.
-car accidents drop to zero.
-car insurance drops to zero.
-fuel consumption becomes radically more efficient.
-It's inevitable.
-Self-driving tech will be made affordable in short order.
-the massive worker displacement will be fixed by basic income. It's inevitable.

Counter-memes:
-Nature will screw with self-driving sensors. Storms, snow, sleet, rain, hail, loose animals in roadways, etc etc etc.
-Basic income is a pipe dream multiple centuries away from becoming even a remote possibility.
-Implying former workers aren't likely to be put down like dogs once usefulness is over.
-People seem to be crashing into self-driving cars. Are safe cars accident-magnets?
-Implying the tech will be in a usable, reliable condition within 10 years. I mean, Tesla just made the front page a few months ago with their "Autopilot" decapitating some sucker watching Harry Potter at the wheel, right? How can people want to trust their lives to glorified tablets controlling their car....

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>>1800660
This is why I don't understand how some of those /pol/acks who are into that Kek / chaos god shit don't support Hillary over Trump. Trump is like the grumpy uncle who talks shit but ultimately means well, while Hillary is a straight up Queen of Evil who could very well unleash WW3 just for shits and giggles.

>>1802227
>People seem to be crashing into self-driving cars.
People are extremely good crashers t. Someone who goes outside

>>1799501
>tribesman kills other tribesman with a spear
>class struggle
Marx was so far up his own ass he started believing his own bullshit

>>1799106
>Reddit line spacing

You have to go back.

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>>1799501
>when we look at history it is just one long class struggle

>>1802271

I honestly don't understand how someone could be as delusional as you.

>>1802335
How exactly am I being delusional?

>>1802227
>-People seem to be crashing into self-driving cars. Are safe cars accident-magnets?

Some thoughts were that the self driving vehicles don't behave like normal drivers. If it was true that would make it harder for humans to predict their movements. Other possibilities are they are reacting faster than humans can giving humans little time to react to their sudden changes.

Maybe someone who knows how they work in practice can give more insight into what is really happening.

>-Nature will screw with self-driving sensors. Storms, snow, sleet, rain, hail, loose animals in roadways, etc etc etc.

MIT demonstrated ground penetrating radar to get through the snow on the ground.

The singularity
Transhumanism
Colonization of space

>>1802227
hmm, in London they are introducing automated tubes. The new overground trains are self driving around London but the tubes are being converted. The unions went on strike last year and locked down transport in the city. I was caught out on the day. The union has pushed up the pay of drivers to £45,000 with threats to lock down the transport in the city. They are refusing automation and the initial job losses it will cause. Automation of transport is already happening, it's not some "utopian fantasy" about the world in 2500AD.

>>1802357
>transhumanism

The cringiest thought movement in recent years.

Literally "I'm a frail manlet with a small dick and I want my mind to be uploaded into a Chad cyborg body": the movement

>>1799547
In a sense we don't but we're just slaves to making software as intensive as possible all for the sake of making it look good and user friendly

>>1802354
>Ground penetrating radar
Mass produced radar able to see thru solid matter... Dude, future-burglars are gonna have so much tech to choose from...

While that is cool as hell, LIDAR-LGPR or whichever system they use still concerns me. Consider something as idiotically simple as a TPMS tire pressure sensor. Consider the natural failure rate, the failure rate from being destroyed in the process of changing tires, consider the ridiculous cost of new sensors, consider the aftermarket being (pretty much) unable to make factory-grade compatible sensors, and consider the hostile consumer attitude from "the factory" putting fragile bits on their car and making them breakable and expensive.

Now consider the ungodly increase in tech complexity that self-driving cars represent. Now imagine that tech in the hands of people that cannot be trusted to change their oil even every 8000 miles. Imagine the increase in difficulty for repair facilities to repair these systems. (Basic scanning machines capable of performing at a commerical level are priced in the low thousands of USD.) Imagine Ted's Diesel Truck Stop trying to fix a self-driving LIDAR truck in the backwoods of Idaho during subzero winter temperatures.

Will self-driving cars benefit rich idiots driving short distances near their home? Sure. Will the transition to self-driving standardization be smooth and bloodless? Hell no.

I just want to see how a poorly-maintained self-driving car performs in the wild. That will alleviate 90% of my concerns.

>>1802379
I can't speak to the large public sector with near-unlimited funding. I would posit that large trains on rails are much easier to automate than vehicles on the open road.

Most of my concern comes from the basic consumer market and the chaos that will inevitably come from self-driving cars being released into the wild.

>>1799660
>The Sun will expand destroying the Earth and ending the reign of the machines.
>The machines wont make the sun unemployed too.

>>1802520
technically they are in some places

>>1802484
>the chaos that will inevitably come from self-driving cars being released into the wild.
Will never happen that way.
If anything it will be a slow and natural process.
We'll just get progressively more and more driving support while driver is gradually replaced.

>>1802458
Surely they will function best on large roads moving freight.

>>1799901
It won't be the socialists who fuck over the capitalists for good. They can sit on their asses all day as climate change finishes it off by destroying most of this world's overfarmed, arable, land.

>>1800321
Reality is really fucking this chart up good. China's current economic panic is fueled by dried up demand from countries that have populations that can no longer afford shit.

>>1802458

It'll perform like shit and be rarely used until the technology improves, them it'll be common place. Just like everything else.

All your arguments can be and were applied to the transition from walking to uses horses, to using ships and using cars.

>>1802591
>Click OK to transition to self-driving cars.

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>>1802322
>thinking reddit invented everything

>>1802227
>Implying former workers aren't likely to be put down like dogs once usefulness is over.
Who would kill them? You think armies and policemen would kill over 90% of the world population to hand over all power to a few oligarchs then off themselves? Or that the richest will push a button and release the terminator armies that they'd been building in secret to kill everyone else? Really, I don't get people who think like that, it's like you automatically take the most cynical prospect to be the most reasonable one.

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>>1799114