What if Italy never joined WW2

Really, I think the meme about italy being a liability is true. How many volunteers did they even contribute to operation barbossa? I doubt it equaled the divisions Germany had to send them and the forces lost and used to occupy in the retarded balkan campaigns

It probably would have calmed every one down to without them thinking hitler controlled all over europe just because he was allied with shitaly and occupied paris

>>1451888

>So my question is how would a neutrall Italy have affeced the course of the war.Lets say that they just stick to Albania.At most lets say they attack Greece and Yugoslavia independantly.Would they get the same treatment that Finland got for attacking USSR during 1941-45?

Well. if Italy stays neutral, they'd probably be wooed by the Allies, at the very least to provide material support, if not to join the war on their side. Of course, Italy can always cite fear of German invasion and reprisal as a reason to stay out of it. It's unlikely they'd be punished, even lightly, by victorious Allies.

As for the war itself, the single biggest impact will be the Mediterranean. Without an Italian presence, Britain is free to ship stuff from her colonies in India, Australia, the Middle-East, Southeast Asia, and the East Coast of Africa through the Mediterranean and up the Atlantic around Spain instead of going all the way around Africa like they did historically.

It would also be far, far easier to base warplanes in places like Cyprus and a few of the Aegean islands, for striking with bombers at places like Ploesti, which might (but probably won't) win the war in a day if they break through.

With a more favorable balance of power in the Med from the Allies point of view, the attack on Mers El Kebir is less likely to go off, as the risk of a seizure of the French fleet is less deadly. Allied campaigns to re-take French colonies and turn them over to Free France are likely to begin sooner and go smoother without the need to divert a hundred thousand troops to Ethiopia, and more to the Western Desert. Any eventual Dragoon is likely to be launched out of Corsica, not Italy.

>>1451909


>>1451909

ARMIR was 10 divisions, IIRC, as well as a relatively heavy plane contingent. And it was sent when the war in the East was at least theoretically winnable. The major German commitment was around the same time as Kursk, when the initiative had already swung against them, so it hastened their defeat, but was unlikely to provide a decisive change in outcome.


> forces lost and used to occupy in the retarded balkan campaigns

The bulk of this would have happened even without Italy. Germany's intrusion into Yugoslavia came on the heels of a pro-British coup, which you can't blame the Italians for. And it was the Italians, initially, who provided the bulk of the garrison for Yugo. About the only thing you'd really get away with is Greece, but Greece was a tiny sideshow, eight divisions at their height, and that was in 1944.
You also seem to be forgetting their contribution to the battle of the Atlantic, which was significant. If you have time to read a fairly long treatise on the subject, I would recommend this.

http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a613508.pdf

>>1452145
I doubt Italy would join the allies as they don't have much to gain from the alliance.Germany is bound to fall anyway so the most the allies could offer was french and british somaliland and maybe a buffer againts comunism in yugoslavia.Besides that I dont see a reason for Italy to join the allies.

>>1452154
Well I was thinking that and my post but should have specified, even a backed foreign coup has to have some kind of native support. I was thinking the italian's aggressive invasion of Albania might have provided some motivation for anti-axis figures in the coup, since yugoslavia controlled many areas of former venice that italy still maintained claims on

>>1452183

They have plenty to gain. Not all ambitions are territorial. Favorable trade concessions, a reminder of favors given now that the two emergent superpowers are both VERY anti-colonialist, just being part of the winning team, possibly even some occupation zones in Austria (remember, back in 38, there was a severe row between Mussolini and Hitler over Anschluss)

They'd also almost immediately get an Angl0-American presence in the country, if for not other reason than to launch bombers out of, which means a huge amount of foreign infrastructure being built up for them, essentially for free.

They'd join because they'd think it would be cheap and wouldn't have to do much.

>>1452206

I admit, I don't know much about the reasons behind the Yugoslav coup, but at least my wiki-tier knowledge seems to place more of the blame on pressure from Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania, and subsequent German pressure to strongarm Yugoslavia into the tripartate pact.

>>1452223
How do you think the allies would have reacted if italy had invaded greece(without help from germany)

>>1452223
>huge amount of foreign infrastructure being built up
He always strongly opposed foreign influence, doubt he would have conceded bases on his own territory

>>1451888
>At most lets say they attack Greece and Yugoslavia independantly.
If the Greco-Italian war is any indication, they would still get their asses kicked and without German help the Italians would lose Albania to Greece.

>>1452299
And how's that bad? They wouldn't have had to deal with Albos anymore.

>>1452255

Hard to say, really. Probably view it as small potatoes next to what Germany is doing, sort of like how Thailand's actions in the war were almost entirely overlooked.

>>1452269

He did for the Germans, even before things started going seriously south.

>>1452299

Total loss of Albania is extremely unlikely. While you did have the Greek counter-offensive in November, it had petered out by January, and while Italian counter-counter offensives had also failed, the Greeks looked in no position to advance, and ultimately, Italy can bring a lot more resources to bear than the Greeks can. Assuming no outside interference from either side, a Greek conquest of Albania is practically impossible.